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People continually ask “when” will it happen? For the last 6 months we have responded “it is happening right before your very eyes”! In fact, as of this morning 52% of global markets are now down over 20% from their highs and qualifying as bear markets. Please understand the financial backdrop these weakening markets are falling into. Bluntly, the world is facing a giant margin call that cannot be met.
Liquidity had become extremely tight even as markets made their high water marks. It is this lack of liquidity which threatens to become a self reinforcing flash crash to hell via margin calls. “Don’t worry” they say, central banks will come to the rescue. There is one fundamental problem with this line of thought, the value of the issued currencies themselves. There is zero mathematical way to service and pay off current debt with current currency values … currencies must be massively printed and thus devalued if they are to pay off the mountains of debt! Central banks created the problem, they will not be the solution. Rather, their demise will be part of the solution.
Looking at the backdrop that a revolving door of “buy the dip(pers)” on CNBC assure us is the right thing to do, the list is many and for the most part the issues are carved in stone. Obviously number one on the list are the levels of consumer, corporate, state and sovereign debt. By any measure, we have never been at current levels. Then we have the current unfunded pension problem. This is not just a US problem, it is a $400 trillion mathematical sinkhole seen worldwide.