Jim’s Mailbox

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CIGA Dwight sends us a good one! Surely this is equitable? We should not be surprised when viewed from the standpoint of “swamp world”!
Bill

Posted at Miles Franklin by our good friend Jeremiah Johnson. Courtesy of JB.

Bill

Print Till It Dies
October 11, 2017

The US Dollar has had a wonderful run in its life time. Not too many fiat currencies have had the ability to sustain its usage for as long as this mighty experiment has and all who have reported on this instrument of trade are pretty much pointing to the same outcome that it can’t last much longer.

Today, the US Dollar trade sits at 93.55 down 8.6 points in the early morning on this Columbus Day. Not too long ago the dollar broke thru a multiyear downside target of 91.88 which originally happened in May 2016, just before we all went thru the election cycle and surprise of a lifetime, MAGA! That is until we hit a newer low of 90.795 on Sept 8th, 2017 which was just 1 week before the Triple Witch Roll Over (which includes the rolling over of all US debt as well as rolling out of the G7 currencies). It is also the end of the fiscal year for the United States Government (Sept 30), and another point of interest, the beginning of the Chinese National Golden Week.

Since these events have occurred we have witnessed nothing but a lull in all things trade-able. We even had an eclipse that covered almost all of United States and since that event, our side of the planet has had numerous catastrophic weather events surrounding the “New World” with the USA, Mexico, Cuba, The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Tortola, and countless other islands. These people living in these areas have had life altering changes in infrastructure and livelihood, yet, when it comes to the markets, all we get is float.

Hundreds of billions of dollars (and possibly topping a trillion) have been lost in all things from daily life to all the jobs that are needed to have one. Yet, our stock market has done nothing but continue to rally as if the consequences that have affected millions of citizens no longer matter. What are we watching here in the markets when we have so much at stake and yet nothing works like it did in the past?

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Our very good friend David (from the witness protection program) avails us with some very interesting statistics and commentary.

Bill

Interesting statistics!

There are 30,000 gun related deaths per year by firearms, and this number is not disputed.

The U.S. Population is 324,059,091 as of June 22, 2016. Do the math: 0.009257% of the population dies from gun related actions each year. Statistically speaking, this is insignificant! What is never told, however, is a breakdown of those 30,000 deaths, to put them in perspective as compared to other causes of death:

• 65% of those deaths are by suicide, which would never be prevented by gun laws.

• 15% are by law enforcement in the line of duty and justified.

• 17% are through criminal activity, gang and drug related or mentally ill persons – better known as gun violence.

• 3% are accidental discharge deaths.

So technically, “gun violence” is not 30,000 annually, but drops to 5,100. Still too many? Now lets look at how those deaths spanned across the nation.

• 480 homicides (9.4%) were in Chicago

• 344 homicides (6.7%) were in Baltimore

• 333 homicides (6.5%) were in Detroit

• 119 homicides (2.3%) were in Washington D.C. (a 54% increase over prior years)

So basically, 25% of all gun crime happens in just 4 cities. All 4 of those cities have strict gun laws, so it is not the lack of law that is the root cause.

This basically leaves 3,825 for the entire rest of the nation, or about 75 deaths per state. That is an average because some States have much higher rates than others. For example, California had 1,169 and Alabama had 1.

Now, who has the strictest gun laws by far? California, of course, but understand, it is not guns causing this. It is a crime rate spawned by the number of criminal persons residing in those cities and states. So if all cities and states are not created equal, then there must be something other than the tool causing the gun deaths.

Are 5,100 deaths per year horrific? How about in comparison to other deaths? All death is sad and especially so when it is in the commission of a crime but that is the nature of crime. Robbery, death, rape, assault are all done by criminals. It is ludicrous to think that criminals will obey laws. That is why they are called criminals.

But what about other deaths each year?

• 40,000+ die from a drug overdose–THERE IS NO EXCUSE FOR THAT!

• 36,000 people die per year from the flu, far exceeding the criminal gun deaths.

• 34,000 people die per year in traffic fatalities(exceeding gun deaths even if you include suicide).

Now it gets good:

• 200,000+ people die each year (and growing) from preventable medical errors. You are safer walking in the worst areas of Chicago than you are when you are in a hospital!

• 710,000 people die per year from heart disease. It’s time to stop the double cheeseburgers! So what is the point? If the liberal loons and the anti-gun movement focused their attention on heart disease, even a 10% decrease in cardiac deaths would save twice the number of lives annually of all gun-related deaths (including suicide, law enforcement, etc.). A 10% reduction in medical errors would be 66% of the total number of gun deaths or 4 times the number of criminal homicides ……………. Simple, easily preventable 10% reductions! So you have to ask yourself, in the grand scheme of things, why the focus on guns?

It’s pretty simple:

Taking away guns gives control to governments. The founders of this nation knew that regardless of the form of government, those in power may become corrupt and seek to rule as the British did by trying to disarm the populace of the colonies. It is not difficult to understand that a disarmed populace is a controlled populace.

Thus, the second amendment was proudly and boldly included in the U.S. Constitution. It must be preserved at all costs.

So the next time someone tries to tell you that gun control is about saving lives, look at these facts and remember these words from Noah Webster:

“Before a standing army can rule, the people must be disarmed.” We now know what they’re trying to do, rule the defenseless.

Wolfgang checks in with some common sense.

Bill

Jim/Bill,

What’s in your wallet?

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Or should I say “What would you rather have in your wallet”?

3 solid gold coins?

Or 300 silver coins?

Or 1 virtual (intangible, promissory virtual note) bitcoin?

You always try on a pair of shoes before you buy them. Why not try a few precious metal coins on for size?

Then compare.

Look, there’s talk of bitcoin going to $10,000 or higher. Perhaps $50,000. To be fair, you have the same talk about gold and silver.

Furthermore, silver (and to a lesser extent gold) are indispensable components in today’s high tech world and medical arena.

You get double protection, not only from a global fiat implosion, but also an investment in vital and strategic metals.

Bottom line, either way you will ride the wave higher….unless, of course, someone pulls the light switch on cryptos.

And don’t kid yourself, it’s easy to pull the switch on the “cloud”.

Not so easy taking gold and silver from you!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Economics trends are a function of CREDIT, so what else is the article saying, please comment for readers?

Jim

Dear Jim,

As you know, the world runs on credit from financial markets to the real economy. Withdrawing “added liquidity” is like taking the punchbowl away or the next hit away for an addict. “Liquidity” has masked the fact of an insolvent system for years. If they (central banks) do actually stop adding liquidity it will be the same thing as backing out the oil drain plug to an oil pan, the motor will seize up. Maybe slowly at first but then all of a sudden…and totally frozen solid.

The credit system not only needs current liquidity adds but always will need MORE exponentially. Think of the old saying “a snowball’s chance in hell”, this is exactly the chance of central banks withdrawing liquidity (AND raising rates) without financial markets and the real economy going into seizure and death. If “zero liquidity add” is truly the future from central banks, they are guaranteeing the greatest credit contraction of all time as a result. This will happen on its own one way or the other, if they truly try to tighten then they will not have any cover to blame the carnage on other than themselves.

Best,

Bill

“This Is Most Worrying”: In One Year, Central Bank Liquidity Will Collapse From $2 Trillion To Zero
October 11, 2017

Is it complacency, or simply trader paralysis?

A question we first asked three months ago is getting a second wind this morning, when in a report by Deutsche Bank’s Alan Ruskin – “Vol: freeze or flight?” – the macro strategist points out that “the new 2017 Nobel laureate for Economics is not the only one at a loss to explain low stock market volatility, and thinks investors are in ‘freeze mode’ in the midst of global uncertainties.”

According to Ruskin, however, it’s all about to change.

But why? And what is “the most likely causes of a shift to ‘flight mode’ and a rise in volatility? Here’s one possibility: by the end of next year, the combined expansion of all the major Central Bank balance sheets will have collapsed from a 12 month growth rate of $2 trillion per annum to zero.”

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