Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com
– Inflation Surge Was Due to Gasoline Prices, Not to an Overheating Economy; Beware the Fed!
– January 2017 Monthly CPI Inflation Rose by 0.55%, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation to a 58-Month High of 2.50%, with CPI-W at 2.51% and ShadowStats at 10.3%
– January Monthly PPI Goods Inflation Up by 1.01%, Construction Up by 0.26%, Services Up by 0.27%, Total PPI Up by 0.63%;
Total Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation at a 29-Month High of 1.73%
– Inflation-Adjusted Annual M3 Growth Is Signaling an Economic Downturn
– January Nominal Retail Sales Gain of 0.36% Was Less than Inflation; Inflation-Adjusted Real Sales Declined by 0.19% (-0.19%) for the Month.
– Real Earnings Contracted Quarterly in Fourth-Quarter 2016, On Track for First-Quarter 2017 Annual and Quarterly Declines
– January Production Was Down by 1.11% (-1.11%) from Its Pre-Recession High, Down by 2.00% (-2.00%) from Its One-Month, November 2014 Recovery; Manufacturing Was Down 5.69% (-5.69%) from a Never-Recovered Pre-Recession Peak
– Despite Continuing Nonsense Volatility in Monthly Data and Revisions, Smoothed Housing Starts and Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation, Down Respectively by 45% (-45%) and 43% (-43%) from Pre-Recession Peaks
– Broad Outlook of Continuing Economic Stagnation/Renewed Downturn Is Unchanged
“No. 866: January 2017 CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Housing Starts ”