What Will Historians Say?

Posted at 10:42 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

Two weeks back I asked the question whether or not the “Final War” had started, between the EAST AND WEST. I was called a number of politically incorrect names for suggesting the Tianjin explosion might have been an “attack” and took even more heat,… because I included the word “nuclear”. Since then there have been many theories as to what happened, some of them pretty far fetched. Yesterday another article was published in Veterans Today, http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/08/25/confirmation-tianjin-was-nuked/ which scientifically suggests the explosion was in fact “nuclear.” I am inquiring as to whether the science used as proof is in fact sound. In the meantime, I would like to hear from readers why or why not the science used in this article is correct or is not. Please do not send me “opinion” or tell me Veterans Today is a poor source. Please specifically attack the science!

I would like to use the Tianjin explosion as a mid point in my review of what happened before and since the tragic event. Prior to the Tianjin explosion, China announced they had accumulated 600 more tons of gold over the last 6 years. On the face of it; this number is clearly bogus as China mines 400 tons per year and none of this product leaves their border for export. I termed this 600 tons….a “polite number”. Seemingly, the number was enough to demand a place at the IMF table but not enough to be a threat to the “sacrosanct” 8,133 tons the U.S. claims. This was followed almost immediately by the IMF announcing it would review China’s inclusion in the SDR in another 9 months. Just two days later China began a series of three yuan devaluations, on day two the Tianjin explosion occurred.

Since then, China announced another 19 tons of gold accumulated. One week later the chemical explosion in Shandong destroyed one of China’s main trading cities (this chemical explosion looked nothing at all like Tianjin). Yes, I understand, different chemicals explode differently but the videos clearly look like fuel ordnance. Coincidentally, two days after the Shandong explosion… a U.S. munitions depot in Tokyo exploded. Maybe I have been sleeping or just haven’t been paying attention but when was the last time a U.S. munitions depot exploded by accident?

As we know so well; over the last two weeks, the chaos in global markets finally reached the shores of Manhattan. Market chaos, that had previously been quite widespread and headlined by China, finally gripped U.S. markets. Now we find out China has exited over $100 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds in just the last two weeks and has indicated it is dumping more through Belgium and elsewhere.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/its-official-china-confirms-it-has-begun-liquidating-treasuries-warns-washington. We knew they had been selling over past months to the tune of nearly $150 billion, but $100 billion compressed into just two weeks is mammoth! I would also add “smart” because China did this selling while fear capital was clamoring to seek “safety” in risk free U.S. Treasuries. China traders appear to have effectively used the fear bid to their advantage as an exit. Please note I wrote “two weeks” several times above. Is it just coincidence Tianjin experienced the explosion “two weeks” ago?

A total of $250 billion worth of Treasury bonds have been sold, what does this imply? The T-bond selling appears to indicate a number of things, with possible multiple ramifications. First and foremost it says “they are not buying”! Of course the next logical questions follows;….”who” will step in to fund the U.S. deficits now that China has turned from buying to selling…In China they call it a Yin Yang. Also, who will the buyers be if China keeps selling? The logical conclusion; after answering the two above questions is…. “the Federal Reserve.” The follow on question is; will the Federal reserve need to commence another round of stimulus, QE 4 and more?

No matter how you look at China’s current financial position and about face, they will clearly no longer fund U.S. budget deficits in the foreseeable future. This leaves us with the misunderstood truth “the Federal Reserve is THE Buyer of last resort.” Worse yet; the Emerging Markets have had to jump the gun and have already started to unload U.S. Treasury’s as their currency falls to reflect lower trade and China’s devaluation of the Yuan.

Apparently, the U.S. has now crossed the Rubicon of sorts and will be forced to “print” deficit spending as a last resort. It is called MONETIZATION and has ALWAYS led to hyperinflation with existing “paper currency” becoming diluted and ever more worthless. The current situation is far more troubling and far reaching than any before it, because the entire world will be fearing a dilution of their “reserve base.” Dollar instruments (U.S. Treasury issues, etc.) are held by nearly ALL central banks and act as a foundation for all other fiat currencies, “infecting balance sheets all over the world.” For what ever reason; I would call a run from the Dollar “a plague,” but in fact, the situation is more like an infestation, the effects of a diluted dollar could well be… far more than any plague in history.

I would like to ask you a few questions. Is there any way you can look at the chronological events over the last month and not conclude they are connected? Is it not clear China/Russia and the U.S. are in a trade, currency, military confrontation, one that might lead to a shooting war? Even the mainstream media reports on U.S. spying and SinoRuso hacking. The West, led by the U.S. have evolved entirely into a “credit based” society …funded in large part by China. Can you look at China’s sales of Treasury securities and say they are not pulling the credit plug? Can you in any way, from a U.S. standpoint, say this is beneficial, or helpful to the U.S.? Or, might it be overt financial war?

China is building military bases throughout the Pacific on man made islands and telling the U.S. to mind their own business, in spite of Pres. Obama’s pivot to the Pacific. The U.S. and NATO are amassing troops and hardware on Ukraine’s border. On the other side Russia is doing likewise. Now we are seeing aerial attacks in Syria, etc. John Kerry has even said; ” If the U.S. does not ratify the deal with Iran, the dollar will lose it’s reserve currency status.” He said this because five nations in Europe have already agreed and sent delegations to Iran to open trade channels. Would this not isolate the U.S. further in energy, trade and finance? As for the series of explosions, could they be coincidence? Yes. Do you believe they are? Or,.. maybe “too coincidental?”

Are there too many coincidental technological, financial and geopolitical dots lined up to come to any conclusion other than we are already in the early stages of war? I believe this is in fact the case. I still believe the Chinese would prefer to “win” via financial means, rather than physical means, but this remains to be seen. Would a ” 9/11 truth bomb,” which is now rumored more often out of Russia, be another way to neuter American hegemony without military use?

As a final thought, I believe global markets are beginning to discount or recognize the war behind the scenes. This is the reason for the chaos in equity and credit markets. Can you imagine what it looks like behind the derivatives curtain? Guaranteed;…. there are dead bodies strewn all over,… with no ability to perform or settle. When history looks back upon August 2015, I believe the consensus view will agree THE WAR had already started!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter -Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome! bholter@hotmail.com