Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The latest from Bill Holter at www.milesfranklin.com:
Isn’t it interesting that "it’s" happening again? "It" being that the GOFO rates which had gone slightly positive for the last month have collapsed again over the last 2-3 days as the price of Gold was forced lower and are nearly negative again. Zerohedge put out a piece this morning with some very neat NANEX charts http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-15/mysterious-gold-seller-back-periodic-high-volume-slams-fails-break-market which show the Gold market by the nanosecond and displays the big volume/price dumps over these same few days.
This has truly become hilarious because unlike the "old days", manipulation has become publicly blatant with zero effort to hide it other than having the CFTC give it their blessing with holy water. The move toward backwardation in the GOFO rates is significant in my mind because it is occurring at the same time that COMEX stands to lose roughly 60% of their registered Gold. If no more Gold enters the dealer side between now and Dec. we will have a disastrous "cash settlement" which of course will not be called a default… but in reality and practicality "default" it will be.
December currently has contracts open representing 22 million Gold ounces while the registered Gold is only 700,000 ounces. Once October is finished there will be only 300,000 ounces remaining unless the inventory is replenished. (Please keep in mind that JP Morgan has had exactly ZERO outside ounces delivered in since Jan. 1st). This is a default in the making! What has been done time after time looks to be happening again, supply has tightened up …and yes, exactly at the same time that "price" has been pushed down. This economically makes no sense whatsoever from a supply and demand standpoint. If actual Gold was being sold supply would be plentiful and there would be no pressure for GOFO rates to go negative. Friday’s dump in price was clearly new short selling as the open interest rose over 7,000 contracts or 700,000 ounces. Who has this amount of metal to either sell or sell short? The answer is NO ONE!
I was away at the end of last week while Janet Yellen was nominated to become the new Fed chairperson. I am sure that she is a very nice person but by accepting the nomination (not to mention her career path) shows me she is either delusional or just plain stupid. Before going any further, Ms. Yellen studied at Brown University and Yale. She has taught at Harvard and UCAL Berkely and worked almost her entire life at the Fed so she surely has the "pedigree" (which I surely don’t). OK, so why is she "either delusional or just plain stupid"?
First and foremost BECAUSE she is accepting the job in the first place! If she cannot see that "it is completely over" then she is both, delusional and stupid. She has never as far as I know actually traded a bond or stock (except for her personal account) institutionally and doesn’t have ANY hands on experience in business. She has been one of THE most "dovish" of Fed Governors and has consistently voted to "ease". "Easy money" is what got us into the mess we are in now, easy money will not and cannot get us out of it no matter how many press conferences are held or how many PPT stock/bond rallies and Cartel Gold smashes they can come up with. It is actually scary to me that she has accepted the nomination because she may really not see how close to collapse the entire system is. Who in their right mind would want to go down in history as the one running the show when the lights go out? History will have forgotten Greenspan and Bernanke’s role in all of this and she will take the blame… ALL OF IT!
Before finishing I do want to add on to what I wrote over the last 2 days regarding the Chinese. As you know, they publicly talked about "de Americanizing" the financial system. They ALSO publicly dressed down the Japanese for pursuing "opposite policy" where they raise taxes next year while printing another 5 trillion more new Yen. These statements by the way came out on the heels of the G-20 meeting over the past weekend. It seems to me that they were emboldened somehow at this meeting. Maybe they were approached by other members in support or maybe they cut new deals (their last was last week with Europe) that further undercut the U.S./British/Japanese alliance. Whatever it was, the timing right after a G-20 meeting is curious and maybe quite telling. Keep your antennae up and do not be surprised by the doors being shut with some sort of "announcement". There will be no advance notice whatsoever other than using your own common sense knowing that a currency reset is the coming objective.
Just some quick observations:
USA approx. 24 hours from technical default, investors and savers already withdrawing their money from America. JPMorgan, BoA, Goldman Sachs dumping their short term US treasury bonds, USD being dumped, stocks being dumped:
China and EU carrying out currency FX swaps with each other, bypassing the dollar. The world is already dumping the dollar. No one is signing up for ACA, no young people anyway. Without young people to pay into it, the whole scheme falls apart.
CIGA Rusty Bayonet