Jim’s Mailbox

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

CIGA Robert suggests that CIGAs who are going to trade gold for insurance consider the normal experience and then relate this to gold.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Our businessman in the trenches shows us what the CPI does not.


Below is a recent quote for 4′ x 8′ drywall mill direct with an intermediary.  Note the first item, 3 years ago the cost was less than $4.50 per sheet.

1/2 Reg                 @ $7.84 per piece
5/8 FC                   @ $8.77
1/2 Mold              @ $10.30
5/8 Mold              @ $11.20


Dear Jim,

The end of an era symbolizing what we are experiencing right now. Thanks for your story about the fake sheik. Somehow I think I remember that event, although vaguely. At the time I thought it was genuine.

In Afrikaans we say: You Bliksem!


HMV: The failure of HMV is both sad and inevitable
The decline of HMV, the last of the superstore music chains, signifies the beginning of the end of an era, writes Neil McCormick.
By Neil McCormick
11:06AM GMT 15 Jan 2013

What would you miss about browsing in a record store? The long rows of albums, stacked in their hundred and maybe thousands, racks and racks of colourful sleeves, arranged alphabetically and by genre, fingers moving through the stack in search of some sought after gem at the right price, or just a moment of inspiration or nostalgia as you contemplate a personal favourite, before slipping it back in with a sigh, and moving on. A good record store is like a holy space for a music fan, where you can luxuriate in longing and nostalgia, filled with the warm sense of being somewhere your musical obsession is treated as venerable and even sacred. Where all that music buzzing around your head and in your heart is displayed as an actual, physical reality, something you can touch as well as listen to.

Well those days are going … going … almost gone.

The failure of HMV, the last of the superstore music chains, is both sad and inevitable. It is sad because it signifies the beginning of the end of an era, although it was never really possible to form an emotional attachment to HMV, too bright, too slick, too impersonal, an American-style one-stop entertainment shop. It was inevitable because the way we consume music has been utterly transformed by the internet and a high store retail space no longer fills the interactive desires of a digital generation. It may be hard to understand how a business with 38 per cent of the market can fail, and questions have to be asked about its inability to adapt to the new models of the music business, yet we also have to acknowledge that those days of physical music are coming to an end. Anyone whose heart mourns the loss of a record store is suffering from the bittersweet tang of nostalgia. We are mourning the loss of our own youth while a new generation forge their own rituals in the endless racks of cyberspace.

The last time I was in a HMV store was just before Christmas as I bustled along the high street at Wood Green. But then I can’t actually physically walk past a record store without being lured in just to contemplate those racks of music, my inner world made tangible. I didn’t actually buy anything. Truth be told, I rarely do.


Professor Sinclair,

How long will the Government wait to raid this cookie jar? My guess will be higher penalties for early withdrawals and probably caps by % of funds in each IRA.

CIGA Big John

Dear Big John,

A break in the US Treasury instrument market can only occur on a failure of QE. QE is non-economic central bank buying of their own and other nations bonds, not giving a rats ass for fundamentals. Do not look for any fundamental item to break the US Treasury instrument market. Only pulling the curtain down on QE would create a bear bond market in US Treasury instruments. You must already see what the incorrect MSM MOPE of less QE has done in the Treasury market, a tiny fip up in rates.

In answer to your question about when to worry about retirement accounts, the answer was yesterday. The retirement plans of the masses come under attack the day after the failure of the present long term uptrend in US Government Securities. An attack will take the form of utilization of these accounts to buy only new government bond issues by PO. Who knows, the government might offer you a bigger tax holiday for buying government paper by PO. The PO will be presented as the means of saving future retirees from themselves by allowing investment only in US Treasury offerings.

"The Plunge Protection Team" will be renamed the "Public Protection Team" and will review this Presidential Order weekly for counsel to the President.


401(k) breaches undermining retirement security for millions
By Michael A. Fletcher
Published: January 14 | Updated: Tuesday, January 15, 9:34 AM

A large and growing share of American workers are tapping their retirement savings accounts for non-retirement needs, raising broad questions about the effectiveness of one of the most important savings vehicles for old age.

More than one in four American workers with 401(k) and other retirement savings accounts use them to pay current expenses, new data show. The withdrawals, cash-outs and loans drain nearly a quarter of the $293 billion that workers and employers deposit into the accounts each year, undermining already shaky retirement security for millions of Americans.

With federal policymakers eyeing cuts to Social Security benefits and Medicare to rein in soaring federal deficits, and traditional pensions in a long decline, retirement savings experts say the drain from the accounts has dire implications for future retirees.

“We’re going from bad to worse,” said Diane Oakley, executive director of the National Institute on Retirement Security. “Already, fewer private-sector workers have access to stable pension plans. And the savings in individual retirement savings accounts like 401(k) plans — which already are severely underfunded — continue to leak out at a high rate.”


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The Fiscal Cliff was avoided? Not this Cliff for these people, but that is Main Street and Main Street business.

Dear Jim,

I am the owner of the employer (a C-corp) based in NY State.

The numbers represent the total out of pocket for the company for one pay period (not including payroll company fees).  However, neither the salary nor the number of employees has changed. None of the employees makes over 75k. In addition to the numbers below, each employee takes home less in 2013.

19,635.73 – Dec 2012
21,909.33 – Today

CIGA Simon



Regarding the Handelsblatt article this morning; man is poop about to hit the fan!


Dear Joe,

Yes, it is, and this brings about 3 important questions:

1. Does modern Germany have De Gaulle’s iron clad balls?
2. Is Euroland pissed at the Exchange Stabilization Fund’s recent take down in the $1776 — $1800 area?
3. Are Euroland and other non-US central banks practicing a form of modified "Free Gold" tactic?


I believe that number one might just be yes, however two and three are absolutely yes.



Hi Jim,

When an entity wants to purchase a lot of physical gold, like tons of it at a time, where do they get it these days?

How long will the miners continue to accept pieces of paper for their precious metals? If/when they stop, what will they want instead?



Entities wanting a lot of physical gold contact major refineries.

The major gold mining companies are not friends of gold. They will sell it faster than they mine it forever.