Jim’s Mailbox

Posted at 7:34 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

Jim Rogers recently told CNBC he is very bullish on Gold. He said he plans to sell Federal debt and purchase more Gold and Silver.

Who sold today? The weak hands? $HUI down – 4.59%. In my view the $HUI will see 1000 points in a couple months.

With no fundamental reasons for the selling today, I would like to call the attention to the juniors that continue to increase their Gold assets.

CIGA Luis Ahlborn Sequeira

"Investors should prepare for rising prices and more expansionary monetary policy now that President Barack Obama has won reelection. It’s going to be more inflation , more money printing, more debt, more spending," Jim Rogers recently told CNBC. The investor also said he plans to sell federal debt and purchase more gold and silver. — in Nasdaq.com



Hi Jim,

I hope that this email finds you well.

I suspect that your email inbox is overflowing today with those who either need their hands held, those who are cursing gold shares, or those who are taunting you from the hedge fund community.

I hope those in the hedge fund community doing this are featured in that one cartoon you have provided us as a teaching tool.  The one with all the flames in it!

As far as I am concerned, what they are doing to people who are trying to protect themselves from spendthrift government spending deserves no less than that.

No need to reply…

Best wishes to you as always!
CIGA Kevin


The community, if we still have one, is in total panic today for no reason whatsoever except the hedge fund activity.

I am buried by people needing help, and those cursing me as well as a good deal of taunting. It is just another day in gold.

No problem.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

CIGA Phil accurately points out what this means.


Time to print even more!


FHA close to running out of reserves: report
Nov. 14, 2012, 3:45 p.m. EST

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Housing Administration is expected to report later this week that it could exhaust its reserves because of rising mortgage delinquencies, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. That could result in the agency needing to draw on taxpayer funding for the first time in its 78-year history, the report said. The decision won’t be made until February, and Congress would not need to authorize any funding because it has "permanent and indefinite" budget authority, the report added.


Open Interest Is An Important Timing Tool During The AB Wave Transition

The actions of the invisible hand could give two hoots about the emotional state of the gold community.  Anyone that believes it does better get a grip in their ego fast or they’ll be joining the black boxes behind the woodshed described below.

The invisible hand’s focus has always been the big black box traders.  Open interest will decline but not flush like the D-wave and gold will be ready to rally to new C-wave highs in 2013-2014 when the black box traders have been taken to the woodshed for their bullish stance.

Velocity and acceleration of open interest is an important component of ABCD wave analysis and timing tool in the AB transition.

Chart:  Silver London P.M Fixed and the COT Futures and Options Open Interest Stochastic Weighted Average

Chart:  Gold London P.M Fixed (Gold) and the COT Futures and Options Open Interest Stochastic Weighted Average (WA)


Fiscal Cliff Most Likely A Non-event

As Jim suggests below, the fiscal cliff despite all the hype will likely be non-event that affords the invisible hand the opportunity to reposition for the 2013 equity market rally to new highs.

Nobody can be so irresponsible and crazy that they would walk into this one without at the least a kick of the can down the road in time, Jim Sinclair.

As I have said before, the sh*t will hit the fan, but only after the counter trend rallies in the formula and leading formula have been broken to the downside.  After that, even a size 15 E policy boot won’t budge that can.

Chart 1:   The Formula: S&P 500 and Federal Government Budget As A % of GDP, 12 Month Moving Average

Chart 2: The Leading Formula: Gold and Federal Taxes Withheld (TW) Less Total Government Outlays (TO) As A % of GDP, 12 Month Moving Average

Headline: Budget Deficit Widens as Fiscal Cliff Looms

The U.S. government’s budget deficit widened in October, the first month of the new fiscal year, as President Barack Obama and Congress seek an agreement to lower future gaps and avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.

The deficit expanded 22 percent to $120 billion from a $98.5 billion shortfall in October 2011, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. The gap exceeded the $113 billion median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Source: businessweek.com