Jim’s Mailbox

Posted at 4:51 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

CIGA Shelly simplifies it perfectly.


Progress report from big business:

1. The people worked for us–we paid them–and they returned a lot of it to us by buying our goods

2. We fired them, ie sent their jobs overseas–labor now costs us less than half as much as before–our profits soar

3. They had to get low paying jobs and don’t earn enough to keep their house, car , ie their  lifestyle

4. So we deluged them with credit cards or reverse mortgages, etc, and they now had to borrow from us that which we used to pay them in wages–and, pay us interest, that becomes in time unpayable

5. We used to have to deal with workers–now they are debt slaves

6. In every way our bottom line, ie, profits are greater

7. Now that is genius

CIGA Shelly


How would you answer FOFOA and his followers, who say silver is going to crash?



Why answer them? What is FOFOA? Is that something like FUBAR?

Yesterday I asked cooperation in the work I am doing regarding emails. My interest in what others think is limited to our crowd. Apparently you missed it, or do not read JSMineset often.

Silver will trade at $50 minimum. In the meantime it will drive you nuts.

Respectfully yours,


Hi Jim,

We have a question concerning your recent post suggesting that the Cartel would flip from a Gold Short strategy to a Gold Long strategy sometime in the near future. Our question: Wouldn’t this run contrary to the Fed’s and ECB’s wishes? Many have postulated that the Cartel’s purpose behind the Gold Short strategy is to keep gold prices stifled to avoid shining a light on Fed/ECB currency debasement. Wouldn’t a flip to Gold Long be in direct opposition to Fed / ECB wishes? Since the Cartel is viewed as the manipulation arm of the Fed, wouldn’t they tow the party line (Gold Short) essentially forever?

Your thoughts on this would be much appreciated. We know you’re busy and thank you for your time and inputs.



You really think the ECB and the Fed are not run externally? You are wrong.

All this is for profit, not saving anything. "Stuff the Republic and take the cash," is their motto.




Just to clarify, I agree; QE until employment improves is a smokescreen, but the markets are gullible.



QE is the bag man for taking lousy assets off the books of financial institutions in order to prevent their bankruptcy, as well as holding up the international government debt situation. QE does not have a damn thing to do with employment other than if you stop it there will be no employment.




Yes, it is sad given I’ve memories of a much different America. But I’m old, I’m tired, and I’ve come to the conclusion that there’s been some sort of "silent coup," a hostile takeover if you will. And where it all ends? I’ve not the time nor inclination to fight it. Perhaps this makes me less of a man and I’m truly sorry for that, but at this stage of life, it seems my remaining energy is conserved for loved ones and those good people deserving of help when I can give it. I guess that in itself is sad.

CIGA Robert

Dear Robert,

There has been a coup that hides in plain view. Wall Street owns Washington. Illegal has become good business. It was possible because the sheeple are more interested in reality shows than anything else. I am 71 and I am bursting with energy to lean as hard against the sociopaths that are now the "In Crowd."



Dear Jim,

Does this now mean we have two officially stated requirements to stop QE to infinity?

1. CPI Target of 2%; and

2. Headline Employment of 6.5% or lower.

Inflation target link…

If so, it is amazing that the market caved with headline employment at 7.9%.  I wish I did not have access to market news and stock quotes.

CIGA Simon


Like all MSM and government MOPE, it does not mean a damn thing.

QE has absolutely nothing to do with employment.

Read JSMineset tonight to again see what QE has to do with.

Respectfully yours,



I don’t know where I read it earlier, but the US Jobs report that the financials are all excited about is fluffed up, just like it was last month.  The "technical glitch" which reported better than expected was because one of the states (California) didn’t report their claims… so it looked great.  Now I read it that this month TWO states didn’t report in, so the numbers are still showing nice, even though no one is getting the entire story.  What election timing, eh?

After the election, count on them being "adjusted for technical errors."  The only guy one can trust is John Williams at www.ShadowStats.com.



Yes, John Williams of www.shawdowstats.com is the only trustworthy source of economic statistics available to the public. If you do not subscribe to him you are hurting yourself. Today we live in a false world of fabrications accepted with gratitude by the sheeple.



Hi Jim,

Some years ago ’round 2007 we spoke and I floated my plan of taking my house equity and buying physical gold and Swissy with the proceeds, given that I could support the payment. My good expat friend and yourself confirmed my gut feeling so I went ahead. I split it 50/50 and have been riding the wave ever since, however now that the currency has fallen off somewhat I am inclined to ease out of my currency position. I have good physical gold/silver positions from way back early decade and before and am only looking for your thoughts on this, as I
don’t trade nor speculate to any serious degree.



If you made me make the decision, I would stand pat.

The Swissy is tied to the euro at 1.20 and I hold the lonely opinion that the euro will not only survive, but go up against the dollar.




Nice increase in volume today.  This move down scared the hell out of the little guys again.  Guess your email box will soon be inundated with “hate mail” if it already hasn’t been.

Best as always!
Richard M

Dear Richard,

The hate mailers are so quiet on the up, but today they are getting rejected by Mac Blocking Option by the bus load. Some even try to reach me by other email addresses when they realize they are emailing a spam trap.

You know anyone that wants to be President must have a screw or many screws lose.




Hi Jim!

Thank you for all your help and support throughout the years! Knowing that the markets in Gold are manipulated, when will the "Cartel" finally fail? It is so hard to imagine $3,500 when we are constantly kicked in the groin on any significant advances.

Your thoughts are always appreciated,


They will as they did in the 70s. The same people will be the people who run it to $3500 or maybe $12,400.



Dear Jim,

Thank you for being the light at the end of a very long and dark tunnel; your guidance and constant vigil has helped me immensely.

I’ve got a couple of questions for you:


I live in a small rental apartment and have not found any way to secure my physical gold.

Many so called ‘experts’ have advised against storing it in bank safes, but I’d like to have your take on this and your recommendation on how I should proceed.


Since banks now hold vast amounts of ‘cash’, but have not found enough credit-worthy customers to lend it out to, I assume the velocity of money is slow, which is why massive inflation/hyperinflation has not taken place. What and when in your opinion, will be the likely catalyst(s) that will cause the velocity of money to increase and open the floodgates to the destruction of our currency?

CIGA Patrick


Are you worried about privacy? If so, a bank is not a good choice.

In Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation the velocity of money will skyrocket in days just like it did in Weimar.



Dear Jim,

I am simply calm with all these price drops in bullion and shares. I know that Mt. St. Helens will blow its top, and catch all the short tourists on the walking trails.  "Peace, Peace, then sudden destruction."

Best Regards,
CIGA-Bavaria Bob


You have a great way of visually expressing yourself.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

In house Poet Laureate CIGA Schaefer treats us to his talented and correct rendition of today’s gold market.

Dear CIGAs,

For years it has been Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for the Cartel to paper-raid and smash Gold and Silver on-and-around the NFP release the first Friday of the month.

Unsurprisingly* with only four days to go to the big election ‘beating expectations’ was the very transparent order of the day (never mind that the numbers will be quietly revised closer to reality later on, a ‘great’ headline number was obviously required today), even if the ‘longs’ had to take a beating.

If it ain’t broke… this SOP has worked so well for the Cartel they see no point in ‘fixing’ it. It will work, until it suddenly doesn’t. Only then will the ‘fixed’ game be fixed.

Today’s anticipated waterfall raid (a continuation of yesterday’s) is just the Cartel’s effort to trigger stop-losses and scare the Muppets. It has nothing to do with ground-truth or fundamentals.

*I had my calendar marked in advance for Cartel paper-raids yesterday and today, while the ‘regulators’ at CFTC did too… only their calendar was noted: Hawaiian shirts, sunglasses, free donuts – casual Friday. I think I’ll send them a copy of my commodities calendar (Same Sh, Different Day).

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Only once the model has fallen below the support line we are on now, and that for only a couple of days.

A significant drop below 1675 brings 1642 into play.  The chance of that happening is about 9%.

91% chance 1675 +/- 5 USD holds.

CIGA Stefaan

Dear Stefaan,

Reading charts when a market is under clear manipulation is simply falling prey to their prime tool.

Since I know there can be no difference between either candidate as far as the dollar long term trend is concerned, I simply turn off my computer and deal with a combination of voluminous, dire hate mail, and suicidal gold guys.

The hate mail guys get a note from me that their email address has been blocked while I do my best with the scared to death gold guy to get their balance back.


Dear Jim,

Could this be the reason for the recent paper-raid on precious metals?

CIGA Christopher


No. Just MSM to be used in the manipulation. QE has ALMOST nothing to do with employment, but few realize that. QE is the bagman for lousy balance sheets in the financial industry.


Fed’s Rosengren sets 6.5% jobless rate for QE exit
Other Fed comments suggest end of quantitative easing is far away
November 01, 2012|Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The unemployment rate would have to drop near 6.5% before the Federal Reserve should raise short-term interest rates, as long as inflation pressures remain tame, Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, said Thursday.

Rosengren, a leading dove on the Fed, said the central bank should not consider ending its third round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, or QE3, until the jobless rate falls below 7.25%.

Earlier in the day in a separate speech, Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, said the Fed should keep buying assets until it sees broad and deep structural improvements in the labor market.

Taken together, the comments suggest the Fed is in no rush to exit from its ultra-easy monetary policy.

In September, the Fed launched an open-ended purchase of $40 billion per-month of mortgage-backed securities. The central bank said it would keep up the purchases until there was “substantial improvement” in the labor market.

The Fed is mounting “an aggressive attack on the serious employment challenges that beset the nation,” Lockhart said in a speech to a business group in Chattanooga.



Labor Market Sends Message of Deterioration While Few Listen

The first causality of a decline Republic is the truth.  The "truth" has been distorted for so many years, generations of Americans have lost their feel for the trends in place.

Trends in place:

Declining goods-producing sector jobs (chart 1).  This includes mostly manufacturing jobs.

Advancing service-producing sector jobs (chart 2).  This includes jobs such as food service-, bar tending-, healthcare-, hospitality-related jobs.

The two trends above have contributed to a steady deterioration real (nominal less inflation) average hourly earnings since 1970’s.

Chart 1:   Good-Producing (GP), Manufacturing (MFG), and Service-Producing (SP) Sector As % of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

The job creation histogram (JCH) suggests that that upward momentum in job creation has slowed in the weak, muddle through economic recovery (chart 2).  A JCH close below zero by 2016 will confirm a significant economic transition.

Chart 2:  Job Creation Histogram (JCH):  Net Nonfarm Payrolls Added/(Lost) less Civilian Labor Force Added/(Lost), 12 Month Average.

The Birth/Death Model (BDM) also illustrates a weak, muddle through economic recovery (chart 3).

Chart 3:   Birth/Death Model (BDM) Contribution to Nonfarm Net Payrolls (NFP) Added/(Lost)

Few other than the cold, calculating hand of big money will heed these warnings during an election year.

Headline: Pre-Election Jobs Report Shows Some Gain; Rate 7.9%

American job creation improved in October with 171,000 new jobs but the unemployment rate moved higher to 7.9 percent, setting the stage for a final push to the finish line in the heated presidential campaign.

Economists had been expecting the report to show a net of 125,000 new jobs and a steadying of the unemployment rate at 7.8 percent. Nomura Securities predicted the rate would fall to 7.7 percent, but most expected no change.

Most of the job creation came in the services sector, with a gain of 150,000, while government employment rolls saw a collective decrease of 13,000.

Source:  finance.yahoo.com


Dear Mr. Sinclair,

Bank of England’s Charlie Bean signals no more QE

What is your comment on this?


Dear Al,

Good morning. You expected something else?




What person seeking protection by certification lets anyone hold their paper? The answer is no one. Therefore this is disinformation for the purpose of stopping people from certificating which they are now on to in a big way.

All certificated paper is also noted at the transfer agent. Replacement of certificates from a KNOWN destruction is easy. Certificate numbers and names held there have been recorded by the agent holder. It could not exist securely otherwise.

Do you think that when you certificate only you know you have the certificate? In your well placed enthusiasm you are an easy guy to use for disinformation purposes. You are doing a great job, but it might be better if you take me off your mailing list due to over 50 years experience in this business owning brokerage houses, clearing firms, arb firms and a metals dealer. I know what is real and what is real bull shit.

We criticize MSM and MOPE so we cannot sensationalize.

Fake gold is disinformation.
Gold produced from water at a cost cheaper than mining is disinformation.
22 carat Gold from bug crap costing less than mining is disinformation.

Sealed envelopes, held in secret protected condition by a US agent is world class disinformation.


Stock certificates feared damaged by Sandy

Trillions of dollars worth of stock certificates and other paper securities that were stored in a vault in lower Manhattan may have suffered water damage from Superstorm Sandy.

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., an industry-run clearing house for Wall Street, said the contents of its vault "are likely damaged," after its building at 55 Water Street "sustained significant water damage" from the storm that battered New York City’s financial district earlier this week.

The vault contains certificates registered to Cede & Co., a subsidiary of DTCC, as well as "custody certificates" in sealed envelopes that belong to clients.

The DTCC provides "custody and asset servicing" for more than 3.6 million securities worth an estimated $36.5 trillion, according to its website.

"At this point, it is premature to make an accurate assessment as to the full impact of the water damage nor would it be helpful to project on what specific actions need to be taken with respect to our vault," said DTCC Chief Executive Michael Bodson in a statement. "We are aggressively working on this situation to minimize disruption to our clients and will provide additional updates as more information becomes available."