Dear Extended Family,
The incoming negativity on gold last week reached epic levels. Friends of mine and gold for more than 40 years were looking for a towel to throw into the gold ring. When fear overtakes your intellect and you call, it is like molten magma spewing out of the phone or email.
If I dared to remind the caller that nothing has changed except the algorithms and then only for the short period of time I made the caller angry. I will admit anger is better than total depression but there is no necessity for either.
The advent of splinter parties to challenge the staid old Democrats and Republicans has put Washington into a total freeze frame. There is no mandate for anything, but don’t rock the boat. All that can get done there is nothing whatsoever.
All the “can kicking” hopes for a strong economic recovery to heal the can bouncing damage have not and will not materialize. The Fed will not let the euro fail. Already the US Fed has provided the swap lines (loan mechanisms) to the ECB (a beard) to loan the Euro banks the liquidity they lost when the Greek bonds were cut 50% (declared not a default by the Board of Appointed Wizards on CDSs from the banks who wrote the useless bond insurance who are the official shot callers on the default word).
You will never hear any of the "D" words, be that default or deflation. You will hear "rescheduling" which is a default whereby the credit default swap does not have to function so the worthless insurance is camouflaged.
Arab spring is turning out to be the disaster we knew it was. Remember all the cheering on financial TV as Egypt imploded? Spontaneous outbreaks of democracy were simply a really dumb reaction.
Some people can only be ruled by strongmen. It was good the strongmen were all on the payroll of the West. The West fired the strongmen into holes in the ground with candy bars, and flood pipes with unused gold .45cal pistols. Now the true believers are taking over. Arab Spring will be seen as the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood as the most influential replacement.
Energy is in as much trouble from the Arab Spring as the Strait of Hormuz is from Iran. Yes, the Wunderkinds took advantage of the gold fear circumstances, but in terms of gold related items have overstated their accomplishments.
When you bully something to go your way you must not assume you are a genius and called the direction. You made it happen, and it will gobble you up the minute you are out of aces. Those gold shares and gold bullion holders that maintained reason over emotion are committed people that no squirt is going to force out of their positions to benefit worthless puts and large new very low priced shorts. At times old fashioned retail can have more staying power than hedge funds.
Please make note:
Gold will bounce off $2100 and react. Try to keep an even course as Alf is right. Gold has a better chance of seeing $4500 than $1400.
Throw away your razor blade kits provided by famous but mercurial gold commentators who have no mindset whatsoever other than to sell subscriptions or seminars.