Now that expectations for Gold at very significant prices are being offered by various rational sources, there is one thing you can be sure of. That one thing is $1650.
I am getting many emails asking how it is possible for the gold price to reach $1650 by early January.
I suspect these are far out in time, out of the money call option buyers that have done exactly what I have warned against. That is the using of options with an investment outlook.
Options are speculations that you never hold past the half way to expiry point, but instead switch to further out months if you believe in what you are doing.
Those that pre-offer gold cannot trade it at $1650 in January because of the short time versus the big moves. They clearly have never experienced the gold run in late 1979 and early 1980.
I will stand with what I have said for nearly 10 years. Gold will trade at $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011. That never made me want to buy expensive in time call options.
It has given me the courage to invest in gold without margin both in shares and bullion.
There is no doubt in my mind that $1650 will occur in early 2011. I have told you that Martin Armstrong, a master timer, feels that gold will trade higher and face a reaction in middle to late June of 2011.
The gold banks are throwing blocks to the price as we approach $1262. This is a major waste of time and money as gold is going to and through that price. The only argument is whether gold will hit $1650 in January 2011 or $3000-$5000 in June 2011.
Do you have any idea how much money has been made by those that bought gold modestly and in cash only on every reaction and sold into the rhino horns? It sounded stupid when I suggested this tactic for the wannabe traders.
I ran 22,000 long gold contracts in the New York and London markets in 1978 to 1980. Back then that was a big number. Today if I have a conviction, I simply play with everything I have and screw credit. The only credit I would use as a pro trader is options.
Those of you who follow me closely know that I am NOT kidding. This is the time when PRICE and TIME meet each other.
This is the time now as it was in 1979 that I went throttle to floor.
This is the time now as it was in 1979 that I am committing 100% of all the cash I can accumulate to what I believe in.
This is the time when all I have planned for is falling into place for the final and enormous pay day. However, I will not and you should not violate discipline, as I have always tried to teach you.
Option are never held past 50% of time left when you purchased them.
If I am wrong about gold at $1650 on or before 14/01/11 it only means gold will trade much higher than $1650 five months later.
As far as being long and wrong, that is something I definitely am not.
Gold Entering A Virtuous Circle
September 6th, 2010 by Egon von Greyerz
Fundamental and technical factors for gold are now in total harmony and gold is entering a virtuous circle that will drive the price up at its fastest pace since this bull market started in 1999.
It is a fact that gold in US dollars (and many other currencies) has gone up 400% in eleven years or 16% per annum annualised.
It is a fact that the US dollar has declined 80% in value against gold since 1999.
It is a fact that the dollar and most other currencies have gone down 98-99% against gold since 1913 when the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was created.
It is also a fact that the Dow Jones (and many world stock markets) has declined over 80% against gold since 1999.
It is a fact that gold has made a new all time monthly closing high in dollars in August 2010.
We expect gold to start a substantial rise now which will continue for 5-10 months before any major correction. Gold’s technical picture is extremely strong with a continuous rising pattern of higher highs and higher lows with the steepness of the curve increasing. From much higher levels we are likely to see a correction that could last up to a year before the next rise which will last several years before we see a significant peak. Once gold has topped we do not expect the same kind of decline as after the 1980 peak since gold is likely to become part of a future reserve currency. At that point gold will be a solid but unexciting investment with very little upside potential. But that is likely to be a few years away.
In spite of a 5 times increase in the value of gold or an 80% decline against many currencies and stockmarkets in the last 11 years, most investors own no gold and still do not understand the importance and value of gold. In a world of constant money printing and credit creation leading to devaluing currencies and devaluing assets, gold reflects stability and is virtually the only store of value that cannot be destroyed by governments.
The average asset manager, fund manager, pension fund or private individual owns no physical gold and at best has a very small exposure to some precious metals stocks. And in spite of this gold has gone up over 400% in 11 years. How is that possible? For the simple reason with the relatively modest demand that we have seen in the last few years, there is not enough physical gold even at these levels. The increase in demand that we have seen has most probably been satisfied by central banks leasing or lending their gold to the bullion banks. Central banks supposedly own 30,000 tons of gold but unofficial estimates of their real holdings are at 15,000 tons or less.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Jesse Livermore knew how to make real money.
Seligman’s kid never played for peanuts
Seligman and Livermore never missed the big move. Don’t miss the big move in gold that is now underway!
Jesse Livermore – “They Miss The Big Movements.”
One of the greatest traders in the history of the world was Jesse Livermore. He was rumored to have died broke, that is patently false. Jim Sinclair’s father, Bert Seligman, (also one of the greatest traders in history) was business partners with Jesse Livermore, and Sinclair (in one of his KWN interviews) let listeners know that Jesse was an extraordinarily wealthy man, all the way to the end of his life. Fortunately his lessons from the markets were chronicled and are available for those who are willing to learn.
September 6, 2010
Jesse Livermore from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator:
"Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices… the ticker is always on their minds. They are so engrossed with the minor ups and downs, they miss the big movements."
I wanted to highlight that particular Jesse Livermore quote today because too many KWN listeners globally fall into this trap. Many have positioned themselves in the secular bull market in gold and yet with every break in the price of gold they begin to worry.
Having said that, here is a second quote from Livermore that readers and listeners should be aware of:
"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."
Those may seem like harsh words, but I can assure you that Jesse was trying to save people from themselves. In order to succeed at this game, you must be able to look at the big picture, always ignoring minor fluctuations or reactions in markets.
For those market veterans that trade I will leave you with this final thought for today, do not churn your accounts. Jesse Livermore:
"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year. Only the foolhardy will try it. It just is not in the cards and cannot be done."
Remember, buy into bull markets as early as possible and hold. This is the only way to make the big money, don’t ever forget that.