Greece will fail and be rescued is all that is discussed in the financial world. Here is the real skinny:
1. Greece getting bailed out means QE (printing of money) to infinity. That means gold would rise from here to $1650 by January of 2011, or as Martin Armstrong said, by June of 2011. The dollar would fall. Equities and commodities would rise.
2. Greece getting flushed means that would enrich the CDS OTC derivative tool. Immediately the next target currencies will be attacked by this tool. Currencies will fall like dominoes. At first the dollar will strengthen, equities will fall and gold will go lower. However, soon the recognition will come that a disaster has occurred that is more serious than the Lehman flushing. Confidence in currencies will fall everywhere. Gold will then rise not to $1650 by the same time in 2011 but to $5000 and perhaps beyond.
Either way both paved the road to a single virtual reserve currency and a single Central Bank (IMF) of Central Banks.
If Greece is bailed out it will take longer for the establishment of the single virtual reserve currency. If Greece is flushed it will happen so fast you will lose your breathe.
Either way I see gold as the only reliable fundamentally correct safe harbor. Gold will play a part at a very high price with the single virtual reserve currency in order to keep gold from being a competitor with it.
Gold’s role will be in the form of the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, not tied to the dollar, but rather tied to the single virtual reserve currency in a ratio to a measure of world liquidity. There will be no interest rate automaticity to the new form for gold’s role in a monetary system. It will follow the many articles I have written on the FRGCR but not tied to the dollar but rather the single virtual reserve currency.
Gold will not be fixed or convertible but will trade within a market as a close band of the price gold is trading at when the single virtual reserve currency is created and will lend to this construct some real validity.
I do not favor any of this, but it will occur.
There is no other possibility to this unprecedented calamity at hand.