Jim’s Mailbox

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Dear Jim,

Inadvertent slag sales and miscounts lost 17,500 troy ounces? I suppose that’s easier than saying we found tungsten/lead filled bars.

"More than $3 million in government gold was unwittingly sold off at a fraction of its value as refinery slag, while $8 million more was miscounted and never left the Royal Canadian Mint, the Crown corporation revealed Monday in a full accounting of how it lost track of a fortune in gold for a year."

Click here to read the full article…

CIGA Eric

Click here to view CIGA Eric’s blog…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following analysis is courtesy of CIGA Eric.

Sinclair16

TA: Long Bonds
Sunday, December 20, 2009

TBT price and volume continues to confirm a breakdown of the small head and shoulders formation. The neckline of the large head and shoulders formation and the 1982 trendline as illustrated by the Shearson Bond Index (SLBI) are now pulling hard. This implies upward pressure on yields into 2010. IMO, the bond market remains the canary in the coal mine for the U.S. dollar and other key markets.

TBT:
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SLBI:
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Jim,

Signs of a recovering economy?

CIGA Mark

Mark,

It is probably illegal US immigrants going south and drug shipments coming north in Mexico. Canada would be gold shipments.

In the US, well that is a MOPE boom.

Regards,
Jim

AAR weekly report: Carloads up in Canada and Mexico, down in U.S

In December’s second week, U.S. railroads lost a bit of the traffic momentum they’ve generated since early November. During the week ending Dec. 12, they originated 261,933 carloads, down 10.2 percent compared with volume from the same week last year, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Carloads declined 13.2 percent in the West and 5.4 percent in the East.

Coal volume remained weak against a strong prior-year comparison, according to Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc.’s weekly “Rail Flash” report. But chemical carloads continued to strengthen and agricultural products traffic continued to increase, primarily because the corn and soybean harvests are about 88 percent complete, the report states.

U.S. railroads also reported weekly intermodal volume of 204,950 containers and trailers, down 3 percent year over year.

For the week ending Dec. 12, Canadian railroads reported 66,894 carloads, up 1.9 percent, and 38,441 containers and trailers, down 7.4 percent. Mexican railroads reported 12,583 carloads, up 2 percent, and 6,768 intermodal loads, up 13.6 percent.

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Dear Jim,

The evening news told me that the recession is over and the economy is on the mend…

Then I read about 7 bank failures this Friday, 3 with no buyer, the temporary hiring of 1,600 additional employees at the FDIC and the near doubling of their budget. Sheila Bair says that bank failures will peak in 2010… do bank failures generally peak in economic recoveries? Now Citadel declares Chapter 11.

Who do you trust? I trust Jim Sinclair!

CIGA Marc77

Citadel Broadcasting Files for Bankruptcy Protection (Update1)
By Tiffany Kary and Don Jeffrey

Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) — Citadel Broadcasting Corp., the owner of radio stations in cities including New York and Chicago, filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection in Manhattan.

The company, which syndicates Don Imus’s morning talk show through its U.S. radio network, listed assets of $1.4 billion and debt of $2.5 billion in its Chapter 11 filing today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court. Forstmann Little & Co., a New York-based private equity firm, owns 29 percent of the company’s common stock, according to court papers. The filing covers about 50 units of Las Vegas-based Citadel.

Citadel hired financial advisers in May to aid in talks with lenders on a possible refinancing. U.S. radio broadcasters including Clear Channel Communications Inc., the largest, have struggled with debt loads and a drop in advertising revenue, particularly from carmakers. Citadel reported a loss of $21.3 million in the third quarter as revenue fell 14 percent.

“The ongoing weakness in the economy and advertising spending, compounded by rising debt and leverage” have left Citadel with an “unsustainable capital structure,” Neil Begley, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, said Dec. 11 in a report.

Sales “will continue to decline” this quarter, Citadel said in a Nov. 6 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company didn’t expect to meet January financial covenants, leading to a default and possibly forcing a bankruptcy filing, Citadel said at the time.

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