Jim’s Mailbox

Posted at 12:19 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

This is what Merrill sent us today.

Respectfully yours,
Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com

David Rosenberg over the ML Squawk box this AM

Why we think gold and commodities too are a no brainer: The protectionist trend is fully intact — see the front page of the WSJ ("Nations Rush To Establish New Barriers To Trade"): The WTO is gathering on Monday to discuss stemming the "wave of barriers to world commerce".  Russia has raised trade barriers to such an extent that EU officials are headed to Moscow to meet the country’s trade officials. Egypt just raised duties on sugar.  The USA is planning retaliatory action against Italian water and French cheese — and levying new tariffs on Chinese-made goods too. This may not exactly be Smoot-Hawley, but this is starting to look more like the 1930s than many are willing to admit. Also have a look at "Free-Traders Conspicuously Quiet on Buy American" on page 2 of the FT.

Dear Jim,

What do you think of the equity market here?

Regards,
CIGA Green Hornet

Dear Green Hornet,

Short and sweet.

If the uptick rule is reinstated as Cox (ex SEC caretaker) advised going out the door of the SEC offices then a 1930 rally has a 70% chance of occurring. I think it would.

If the lobby of the hedgies is rich enough then the uptick rule will not be reinstated and the equity market rally will be short and lacking of any noteworthy character.

It is business as usual as the Big Money game of Hedgie Lobbyists own versions of pork.

The Hedgies are the short side of all markets.

See you in Toronto.

All the best,
Jim