Posted at 4:13 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


The dollar is getting crunched at the same time as gold!!??? Can’t win in a manipulated market. This is for the birds.


Dear SE,

When markets are driven by mindless algo machines and high frequency trading machines that both practice TA at the limits of math and interpret headlines, only a fool tries to trade. Trading as a side occupation is finished. Long term positions at times of possible compilation with a stop is the only method such as gold at $1138.



Stephen Leeb presents the fine points of how bad it could be for Euroland and the central banks should they not work out an arrangement of Greece’s debt that would be more conducive to the future of Greece. China and Russia are waiting in the wings to fill the space left should Greece not make an agreement with the banksters.

CIGA Larry M

Superpowers Battle Over Greece As Europe Trembles With Fear Of World War III
February 03, 2015

Today one of the top minds in the business warned King World News that Greece has now become the center of a much larger global war Between Russia, China, the U.S. And Europe.  This interview takes a trip down the rabbit hole of a global conflict that is now raging between superpowers of the world over Greece as Europe trembles with fear of World War III.

Stephen Leeb: “Right now all eyes are on Greece.  What happens if Greece drops out of the euro?  That would be catastrophic for the euro.  Greece owes over $300 billion to European banks.  This is why a default would be so incredibly disastrous….



Can you shed any light on the reason for this disappointing price action?

Thank you,


When markets are run by the decisions made by machines that interpret headlines, that do high math for algos and process it all through high frequency trading programs without minds or souls, how does anyone explain any action up or down? The dollar’s recent rise and oil’s collapse had much to do with this chain of madness.


Posted at 12:40 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’

- 2015 ˆ A WORLD OUT OF BALANCE Year Past, Year Ahead and Hyperinflation
- 2014 – A Year of Market Hype, Manipulation, Intervention and Misdirection
- 2015 – A Year of Reckoning, Economic Turmoil, Dollar Panic and Hyperinflation
- Federal Reserve and Other Central Banks Have No Way Out as Dangers from the Panic of 2008 Persist
- Global Financial, Economic and Political Instabilities Are Pushed to Limit
- Economic Reality versus Illusion: No U.S. Recovery or Boom Is in Place; No Economic Recovery Is Likely This Decade
- Extreme U.S. Fiscal Imbalances Unresolved
- U.S. Dollar Remains in Great Peril; Underlying Perceptions and Fundamentals Already Are Shifting
- Low Oil Prices Would Prove Fleeting with Dollar Plunge
- Soaring U.S. Inflation Should Accompany Dollar Demise in 2015, Leading to Domestic Hyperinflation
- Gold and Silver Prices Will Explode in Flight from Dollar; Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains Best Store of Wealth


History In the Balance: Why Greece Must Repudiate Its “Banker Bailout” Debts And Exit The Euro
by David Stockman • February 2, 2015

Now and again history reaches an inflection point. Statesman and mere politicians, as the case may be, find themselves confronted with fraught circumstances and stark choices. February 2015 is one such moment.

For its part, Greece stands at a fork in the road. Syriza can move aggressively to recover Greece’s democratic sovereignty or it can desperately cling to the faltering currency and financial machinery of the Euro zone. But it can’t do both.

So by the time the current onerous bailout agreement expires at month end, Greece must have repudiated its “bailout debt” and be on the off-ramp from the euro. Otherwise, it will have no hope of economic recovery or restoration of self-governance, and Syriza will have betrayed its mandate.

Moreover, the stakes extend far beyond its own borders. If the Greeks do not take a stand for their own dignity and independence at what amounts to a financial Thermopylae, neither will the rest of Europe ever escape from the dysfunctional, autocratic, impoverishing superstate regime that has metastasized in Brussels and Frankfurt under cover of the “European Project”.

Indeed, the crony capitalist corruption and craven appeasement of the banks and financial markets that have become the modus operandi there are inexorably destroying the EU and single currency. By fleeing the euro and ECB with all deliberate speed, therefore, the Greeks will give-up nothing except the opportunity to be lashed to the greatest monetary train wreak ever recorded.


ISM Manufacturing Tumbles To One-Year Lows As New Orders Crater; Construction Spending Disappoints
Tyler Durden on 02/02/2015 10:09 -0500

Amid a plunge in new orders to Jan 2014 lows, the ISM Manufacturing index slid to 53.5 (missing expectations of 54.5) to its lowest since Jan 2014 – confirming Markit’s US PMI. New export orders contracted. employment growth slumped to 7 month lows, and inventories surged. In addition, after December’s tumble in construction spending, January’s bounce was only half as much as expedcted (+0.4% MoM vs +0.7% expected) missing for the 6th month in the last 7.

ISM Manufacturing hits one-year low.


As we had warned previously on several occasions, looking at the seasonally adjusted ISM is wrong. Here’s why: finally the Adjusted data has caught up with unadjusted.


And worst of all, the number of respondents seeing “Better” New orders plunged to the lowest since 2012:


Bill Holter for Miles Franklin

This past week was filled with geopolitics 24/7 until Friday, when they finally spilled all over the markets. The market action was extremely ominous in my opinion and especially the last hour into the close.  Very shortly I believe we will be faced with huge market “gaps” which will be the topic for tomorrow, today let’s discuss how the current geopolitical situation will detonate the leverage.

  It’s not as if the geopolitical situation wasn’t already hot enough before the Greek vote, now the world has a polarizing event to deal with.  This past week was a sparring match between the Syriza party of Greece and the EU, a line in the sand has now been drawn, Feb. 28.  Before looking at all of the sides being chosen and alliances being formed, it is important to understand that “lines in the sand” are a very VERY bad thing indeed …especially when we are talking about “nations”.  Drawing a line in the sand and placing a date on it means someone must lose face on one side or the other.  Don’t get me wrong, one way or the other Greece will implode financially, it will open the floodgates for other weak southern European nations and ultimately destroy the Eurozone as we know it, but, now there is a hard date for all of this to occur by.  A Greek failure or exit will also set off a derivatives chain reaction, this is what I believe Friday’s market action was portending.

  The Euro/Greek fracas is not all there is, there is much more including the Russia/China/India meeting and the Russia/Iran allegiance, I will bring them in later, for now,  let’s focus on Greece since the Eurozone has now declared them the “firing pin”.  Greece is a financial wreck.  They have national debt at a rate of 175% of GDP and rising, especially as GDP continues to collapse.  They also experienced bank runs by the public over the last several weeks and saw outflows of more than 10% of total deposits.  Their stock and bond markets crashed this week as interest rates approached 20%, Greece will mathematically go down one way or the other.

  Over the next 25 days, some “philosophical” decisions will need to be made, none of them will be pleasant.  In a nutshell, Greece wants its debt balances lowered in a “haircut fashion”, the ECB cannot agree to this as they would then have to admit losses and no longer be able to price Greek debt at the ridiculous price of “par”.  The Troika wants to offer 7 billion euros as an extension package to prolong the game, Mr. Tsipras flat out rejected this on Friday (thus the market action) and does not want to accept it, he is steadfast in lowering the amounts owed rather than taking more handouts and increasing the debt balances.

  This is a true showdown and one where no matter what happens, no one wins because the losses have already taken place.  Greece has already borrowed too much and cannot pay it back so the losses are already in place whether admitted and acknowledged or not.  Please understand that Greek bonds act as “collateral” within the derivatives daisy chain.  Any write down or writeoff will be considered a “default trigger” where margin calls are issued to an already illiquid and undercapitalized derivatives chain.  The financial system is in a position where calling a spade a spade will cause the roof to cave in, not calling it a spade and ignoring the reality is the only thing keeping the game alive to this point!

  Enter Mr. Putin and the Russians, they have offered aid to Greece should they turn East.  This would be a disaster for Europe herself as the next question would be “who’s next?”.  The bottom line is this, as I said “the losses have already taken place”, are they recognized now or later?  One last point about Greece, should they lean East, but stay as a member of the Eurozone and NATO, they can now veto any sanctions the U.S. would like to place on Russia …ironic in a very dark way don’t you think?  Greece would be a huge win for Russia in so many ways and an even bigger loss for the West in every fashion imaginable.

  China, Russia and India will meet on Monday in Beijing, can you imagine what will be discussed?  Especially after Mr. Obama just visited India last week?  Will it go something like “whatever they offered you is either not best for you …or an outright deception”?  Will India be offered a spot at the Eastern monetary table, the future “big” table if you will?  Are they being given a heads up on any timing issues or even requested to lower their gold tariffs to put a further squeeze on Western vaults?  Interesting stuff!

  Switching to the Middle East but again including Russia and by extension China, Iran and Russia seem to be dancing partners!  This has very big ramifications when you look at it from the religious/allegiance standpoint.  Iran is Shia which means they have a natural allegiance toward Syria, Russia also has reason to back Syria as they do not want to see a pipeline built as competition to their own gas.  Just a week back, Russia and Iran signed a military agreement,  Russia is also discussing constructing nuclear plants within Iran.  Iran has also been invited to join Russia’s new clearing system which will compete (be an alternative to) with the SWIFT system.  All BIG news and now coming day after day after day.

  Before wrapping up, we should mention that China has ratcheted up her imports of gold.  The final two weeks of January were 70 tons and 71 tons.  Should this be their new run rate, they will be importing 40% more gold annually than the world produces.  Why?  Why are they ramping up imports just now?  My personal guess is they know something is about to happen and want everything they can get their hands on as fast as they can.  To put this in perspective, in just two weeks, China has imported six times more gold than the COMEX even claims to have as deliverable inventory!  In my opinion, COMEX will very shortly be relegated into irrelevance as they simply do not have the product available for delivery.  A “two tier market” will result and it is very possible to see large down days on the COMEX and huge up days in physical metal as traders begin to understand the true dichotomy between paper gold and physical gold.

  We have watched over the last several months as countries jockey for position.  Allegiances of trade, military and finance have been created and “sides” are being chosen.  The key to understand here is that those announcing deals have nearly ALL been toward the East and away from the West.  Clearly, gold is also moving to the East from the West.  Once the sides are fully chosen, who do you believe will be making the rules?  “Gold” and whomever owns it will have a voice, got gold?

  To finish, I believe Friday’s closing action is merely a preview to “gap” openings in all directions one day in the near future.  The world has been in the process of choosing sides for several years and it is now coming to a head.  Many deals and alliances have been formed and in case you had not noticed, the West, led by the U.S. is losing influence as each new deal is signed.  This is because the world wants fairness in trade, they want true and real settlement which has not been the case since 1971.  We are moving toward gold being remonetized into the financial system because this is what the world is demanding.  Below, and capitalized because it is so very true, is a quote from my mentor which sums up the attitudes of most, if not the entire world excluding Britain and the U.S.. Please read this several times and let it sink in thoroughly because this quote will be the basis for what I write tomorrow.




Regards, Bill Holter

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Sanctions on Russia by the EU was EU suicide.

Beware the Turning Point for Bonds – 2015.75
(Excerpts from article)

When the crisis begins to manifest, then rates will begin to rise. They will rise more rapidly in Europe for the EU is really shooting itself in the head and foot simultaneously. Their fiscal mismanagement and outrageous treatment of Russia is even courting war. You win the Russia people over with acceptance with free trade that will put the political pressure on their government. Being a hard-ass against Putin assuming the people will overthrow him has been a huge mistake. They now see the West as evil not the guys in the white hat. All they are doing is making the future far more dangerous for when the economy turns down from October, the finger-pointing will start. Our leaders are lawyers – not statesmen. Really – enough is enough with this power-ego-trip. Those in government are really clueless and cannot see that the people are losing confidence rapidly in government around the world. Their day will soon arrive and when it does, capital will flee from their debt and that is when rates rise. They are even stupidly pushing Greece into default and when that takes place – oh boy will we have a contagion.
Even the proposals of Greece for reform leaves in place the crazy system of borrowing perpetually when there is no intention of ever paying down no less off national debts. Germany is by no means any different from the US and in fact economically it is far worse. Yet people think Germany is strong. That realization will come to a rude awakening after October. Why would grown people who are suppose to be educated ignore what is right in front of their eyes? They are lawyers use to writing laws who expect people to obey or they will imprison them. There is zero comprehension about human nature and they assume whatever is in motion will just continue forever. There is no one ready to step forward and say – hey guys! this ain’t gonna work!
SO keep your power dry. The time is coming. We will do a special SOLUTION SEMINAR that will be live streamed soon. We will review the Greek proposals and address the real problems and how band-aids will not work any more.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Picking sides?

Russia to launch economic projects in Far East in 2015 — presidential envoy
February 02, 12:46 UTC+3

VLADIVOSTOK, February 2. /TASS/. The Russian government will start implementing economic projects in the country’s Far East in 2015, Deputy Prime Minister and Presidential Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District Yury Trutnev said on Monday.

The government carried out enormous work to prepare the projects aimed at spurring the region’s social and economic development, Trutnev said.

“We engaged, first of all, in preparing a framework for development: we elaborated legislation, worked on the budget for the allocation of budget funds. The implementation of specific economic projects will begin already this year,” the government official said.

“Work will begin on creating advanced development territories and new enterprises,” Trutnev said following a meeting with governors of Far Eastern regions in the Pacific port city of Vladivostok.

“The Russian Far East is today ahead of all other federal districts in Russia by the growth rates of industrial production. At the same time, we need to work well on further accelerating rather than slowing economic growth rates,” the vice-premier said.


Delusional America
Paul Craig Roberts

Robert Parry is one of my favorite columnists. He is truthful, has a sense of justice, and delivers a firm punch. He used to be a “mainstream journalist,” like me, but we were too truthful for them. They kicked us out.

I can’t say Parry has always been one of my favorite journalists. During the 1980s he spent a lot of time on Reagan’s case. Having been on corporate boards, I know that CEOs seldom know everything that is going on in the company. There are just too many people and too many programs representing too many agendas. For presidents of countries with governments as large as the US government, there is far more going on than a president has time to learn about even if he could get accurate information.

In my day Assistant Secretaries and chiefs of staff were the most important people, because they controlled the flow of information. Presidents have to focus on fund raising for their reelection and for their party. More time and energy is used up with formalities and meetings with dignitaries and media events. At the most there are two or three issues on which a president can attempt leadership. If an organized clique such as the neoconservatives get into varied positions of authority, they can actually “create the reality” and take the government away from the president.

As I have reported on many occasions, my experience with Reagan left me with the conclusion that he was interested in two big issues. He wanted to stop the stagflation for which only the supply-side economists had a solution, and he wanted to end, not win, the cold war.

Both of these agendas put Reagan at odds with two of the most powerful of the private interest groups: Wall Street and the military/security complex.

Wall Street for the most part opposed Reagan’s economic program. They opposed it because they understood it as Keynesian deficit pump-priming that would cause an already high inflation rate to explode, which would drive down bond and stock prices.

The CIA and the military opposed any ending of the Cold War because of the obvious impact on their power and budget.

Left-wing journalists never picked up on this, and neither did right-wing journalists.


Hedge-Fund Bulls Betting Most on Gold in Two Years: Commodities
by Joseph Deaux
4:00 PM EST February 1, 2015

(Bloomberg) — Hedge funds are the most bullish on gold in more than two years, betting the metal’s allure will strengthen as slowing economies in Europe and Asia threaten U.S. expansion.

Speculators increased their net-long position by 80 percent this year, U.S. government data show. The U.S. economy expanded at a slower-than-forecast pace in the fourth quarter and Federal Reserve officials acknowledged global risks at the end of their policy meeting last week.

Gold prices in January capped the biggest monthly gain in three years. Policy makers in Europe and Asia are adding to stimulus as they battle cooling growth, boosting the appeal of alternatives to currencies that are being revalued. Weaker foreign expansion has increased speculation among investors that the Fed will wait longer before raising U.S. interest rates.

“If we’re in a really bad global economy and we have more downbeat news here, the motivation for the Fed to raise interest rates isn’t there,” Marty Leclerc, the chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors who oversees $400 million in assets, said by phone Jan. 30. “That would hence make gold more attractive if everyone is debasing currencies.”

The net-long position in gold advanced 15 percent to 167,693 futures and options in the week ended Jan. 27, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data published three days later. Long holdings are the highest since 2012.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

He is correct if the EU wants the euro to remain viable.

EU must stop ‘feverish’ anti-Russian steps, think long-term relations – Greek FM
Published time: February 01, 2015 20:35

The EU should consider long-term relations with Moscow, instead of making feverish anti-Russian moves, new Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias said, adding that his country does not want to give up its historic ties with Moscow.

“Greece is interested in stabilization and peace in Ukraine, as well as avoiding a split in the relations between the EU and Russia,” Kotzias told Athens News Agency, explaining Greece’s stance at the emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Thursday.

He said he urged the European Union to “finally consider what it wants to do with Russia on a long-term basis…instead of reacting [to the Ukrainian crisis] in a morally direct, correct, but feverish fashion.”

The debate in the Belgian capital was a tough one, the minister stressed, as it was crucial for Athens “to avoid confusion in relations in the non-economic sphere with the Europeans and not to disturb Europe’s and Greece’s relations with Russia.”

“Those of our partners, who don’t want a serious breakup with Russia, looked at us with great sympathy, and some even hid behind our backs during the negotiations. The others, who strongly oppose dialogue and relations with Russia, treated us critically and distanced themselves from us. It was a difficult negotiation,” he said.


Posted at 11:20 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


Makes sense.

Just think about what happens when you have to PAY to invest your money in the so called safety of bonds, as is happening in many countries around the world!

“It is more attractive to hold gold in a world of zero interest rates than when rates were 4% or 5%.”

Remember, you never have to pay for any hard asset you already own.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

From Felix Zulauf, in the ”Roundtable Special Report” section in the January 26th edition of Barron’s magazine:

”Gold is a protection against extreme deflation, as well as inflation.  It is protection against systemic risk.”

”Gold has been a fantastic currency.  Last year, it was the second-strongest currency, after the U.S. dollar.  It has risen against all other currencies and has fulfilled its function to protect against currency debasement.”

”Historically, falling interest rates have been a plus for gold, but that has always been in times of inflation.  Now the risk is toward deflation.  Gold doesn’t pay any interest, and there is a minimal cost to hold it.  It is more attractive to hold gold in a world of zero interest rates than when rates were 4% or 5%.  Gold could run to the mid-$1,300s from today’s $1,223.”


Posted at 6:11 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Looks like this grandson is going to be a dog man.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Please read this article with special attention to retirement funds. I post this in the light of GOTS.

Here’s some frightening honesty, courtesy of the US Congress
by Simon Black on January 30, 2015

A member of my staff caught an obscure resolution that was introduced in the US House of Representatives last week—Resolution no. 41.

The fact that there was essentially no coverage of this Resolution really shows how the mainstream media is completely turning a blind eye to the true fiscal situation of the United States of America.

The entire point of the resolution is to say that the federal government is broke.

It can’t pay its own bills, and therefore is shouldn’t be responsible to pay anyone else’s either.

It doesn’t’ take a rocket scientists to figure out what a bankrupt government will do—just like any thief, they’ll go after easy targets first.

The easiest target of all is future generations.

They’re going to run up the debt as high as they can, which essentially means pulling future tax revenues into today. It’s the easiest tax of all, because unborn children do not vote.

The estate tax is another one to watch out for—because, like unborn children, dead people don’t vote either.

We had a great podcast yesterday about retirement savings, where there’s an easy $5 trillion treasure chest for them to raid.

And, of course, there’s the greatest tax of all, the inflation tax, which decreases the standard of living for most of the population as the cost of living rises much faster than incomes.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is becoming contagious in the EU.

Thousands take to the streets again over charges
Coalition hopes that anger has subsided dashed by further protests
Jerome Reilly and Ralph Riegel
Published 01/02/2015 | 02:30

Around 15,000 protesters brought Dublin to a standstill and thousands more marched around the country yesterday – dashing Government hopes that anti-water charge anger has gone away.

One man was arrested after scaling the boundary of Leinster House when tensions flared briefly but the Dublin march was peaceful and good-humoured – though designed to inflict maximum disruption to traffic on both sides of the Liffey.

In Cork an estimated 4,000 people protested to highlight their ongoing opposition to water charges.

The Leeside protest was organised by an alliance of a dozen anti-water charge protest groups, brought the city centre to a standstill as demonstrators marched from the Grand Parade up Patrick Street.

The People Before Profit TD Richard Boyd Barrett said those who were hoping that unrest over water charges would subside over the course of time were mistaken.

“The friends of the Government, in various quarters, have been hoping and wishing that the massive popular rebellion against water charges and the wider austerity agenda would end – they are sorely mistaken,” he said.

At least three separate Dublin marches converged on O’Connell Street.

The first group of 6,000 mainly protestors from Dublin’s northside marched from Connolly Station and up the south quays. A smaller feeder march from St Stephen’s Green joined this main grouping at O’Connell Bridge.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The citizens and now some EU governments have had enough of banker’s solutions to banker made problems.

Greece on collision course with Brussels after Merkel backs hardline debt stance
Germany will resist Greek efforts to do deals with individual creditor nations, even as Syriza finance minister heads to meet French counterpart
Jamie Doward
Saturday 31 January 2015 19.05 EST

Angela Merkel has ruled out the prospect of Greece securing further debt cuts from its creditor nations, potentially putting the country’s new leftist government on a collision course with Brussels. The German chancellor’s uncompromising stance will not be welcomed in Athens, where the new ruling party, Syriza, insists that it will make good on its promises to halve the country’s €320bn (£240bn) debt obligations and scrap a range of swingeing budget measures that were imposed in exchange for the loans.

Athens is refusing to cooperate with the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund – the troika of institutions overseeing the loans, which total about 175% of Greece’s gross domestic product. Instead its new government is looking to meet with individual creditor nations as it seeks concessions that it claims are vital if Greece is to emerge from years of austerity.

However, such unilateral measures will be fiercely resisted by Germany, which is adamant that eurozone creditor nations must hold the line on Greece’s debt. When asked in a newspaper interview published yesterday whether there could be further concessions for Greece, Merkel said Athens had already been forgiven billions of euros by private creditors. “I don’t see a further debt haircut,” she said.


Posted at 6:04 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

The following proves how some people are really CRAZY these days. Imagine paying over $24,000 US in after tax money to go to the Super Bowl today. Absolutely INSANE!!! The overwhelming majority of us watch it for free on TV.

CIGA Keith

Super Bowl tickets are most expensive ever
By Katie Lobosco @KatieLobosco January 30, 2015: 5:22 PM ET

This year’s Super Bowl tickets are the most expensive ever. And the price continues to climb.

The average ticket price so far is $3,554 — about $1,000 more than last year, according to SeatGeek, which tracks online sales.

SeatGeek analyst Connor Gregoire said he does not expect the price for the few remaining tickets to come down before the Seahawks and Patriots face off on Sunday in front of 72,000 fans in Phoenix.

On Friday, the cheapest ticket was going for nearly $8,000 and the most expensive topped $24,000, according to SeatGeek.

And there are very few left — only about 300 tickets on Friday. On the same day last year, there were about 4,000.



Robson Street used to be Vancouver’s “Rodeo Drive” with the highest retail rents in North America. Today, every other store is empty, closing down or a struggling retailer. Even Starbucks closed on a prime corner!

Tells you all you need to know about our Canadian economy.


Canada’s slumping GDP reveals troubles in just about every sector
Christina Pellegrini | January 30, 2015 7:12 PM ET

Friday’s GDP report made crystal clear how grimly Canada’s economy — one that contracted 0.2% in November – had been quietly tanking, which contributed to the Bank of Canada’s surprise move last week when it cut its prime setting rate.

While the bleak oil picture was fully developing, the thinking was that Canadians shouldn’t worry about the economy, manufacturing would carry the standard. However, manufacturing output, which accounts for 10.5% of GDP, fell even further than the energy sector, declining 1.9%, even though the Canadian dollar had already begun sliding, according to Statistics Canada.

The oil, gas and mining activity fell 1.5% while a barrel of crude was trading as high as US$76.51, a price that is more than one and a half times as the current figure, US$47.86, according to StatsCan.

Concurrently, wholesale trade slumped 0.6% in November, a second consecutive decline following a decrease of 0.2% in October, coupled with a surprising drop in output of 0.4% in the finance and insurance sector, which had previously risen for five consecutive months.


Posted at 5:49 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


How true. Patience is the key to understanding gold.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

“First The Deflation – Then The Inflation”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2015 – 12:45

Again and again through history, first you have the massive deflation and then government is forced to debase the money supply that finally reverses the economy sending it into ainflationary spiral. The second phase is when gold will rise. But you first have the deflation (that we are seeing now) that reduces tax revenues and then you have the inflation set in motion by rising costs (waiting in the background).



Holy Mackerel! That’s right – the negative rate mortgage is now a reality.

You know the system is screwed beyond repair when stuff like this begins to appear.

This is worse than the Mortgage Crisis of 2006!

Gonna end badly…

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

In Denmark You Are Now Paid To Take Out A Mortgage
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2015 – 15:44

With NIRP raging in the Eurozone and over €1.5 trillion in European government bonds trading with negative yields, many were wondering when any of this perverted bond generosity will spill over to other debtors, not just Europe’s insolvent governments (who can only print negative interest debt because of the ECB’s backstop that it will buy any piece of garbage for sale in the doomed monetary union). In fact just earlier today we, rhetorically, asked a logical – in as much as nothing is logical in the new normal – question: “Who will offer the first negative rate mortgage.” Little did we know that just minutes after our tweet, we would learn that at least one place is already paying homeowners to take out a mortgage. That’s right – the negative rate mortgage is now a reality.


Posted at 12:12 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mr. Biff on a very cold Connecticut winter’s evening.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

My Security Team on break time.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What BS recovery we are fed every day.

Almost half of US households exhaust their salaries

The Federal Reserve has declared economic growth “solid.” But several new reports show most Americans are treading along a dangerous financial tightrope, where one slip could be devastating.

Nearly half of U.S. households — 47 percent — say they spend all of their income, go into debt or dip into savings to meet their annual expenses, according to an analysis of Fed survey data released Thursday by the Pew Charitable Trusts.

“They could not withstand a serious financial emergency,” said Diana Elliott, a Pew research manager who co-wrote the analysis. “That really is the contrast to the macroeconomic story” of a recovering economy.

“Macro indicators tell us a lot, but they don’t tell us what is specifically happening within families,” she said.

If a typical middle-class household had to weather a period of joblessness without any income, they would exhaust their available savings within 21 days, the analysis found. If that same family also cashed in all their retirement investments to get by, they would burn through those assets within four months.

Nor is there much flexibility in family budgets. Americans are devoting more of their income to housing, health care and personal insurance and pensions since 1984. After adjusting for inflation, their average annual expenses have risen 6 percent to $51,105 during that period. Their earnings have largely been flat for three decades — increasing only when factoring in government “transfers” such as tax cuts and Social Security checks.


Greece’s finance minister vows to shun officials from troika

The battle lines between Greece and its creditors were drawn in Athens as the Greek finance minister announced that the new government would refuse to engage with representatives of the country’s hated troika of lenders.

Standing his ground after talks in the capital with Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the eurogroup of EU finance ministers, Yanis Varoufakis said Greece would not pursue further negotiations with the body of technocrats that has regularly descended on the country to monitor its economy. Nor would it be rowing back on election-winning pledges by asking for an extension to its €240bn (£180bn) bailout programme. “This platform enabled us to win the confidence of the Greek people,” Varoufakis said, insisting that the logic of austerity had been repudiated by voters when the far-left Syriza party stormed to victory in Sunday’s election.

Greece has lost more than a quarter of its GDP, the worst slump in modern times, as a result of consecutive waves of budget cuts and tax rises enforced at the behest of creditors. Varoufakis and the new Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, who also met Dijsselbloem on Friday, are adamant that the government will deal only with individual institutions and on a minister-to-minister basis within the EU. They have vowed to shun auditors appointed by the troika of the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

“Our first action as a government will not be to reject the rationale of questioning this programme through a request to extend it,” quipped Varoufakis. “We respect institutions but we don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” he said, referring to auditors who run the rule over Greece’s books on behalf of the three lenders.

An internationally renowned economist, Varoufakis has been an outspoken critic of the austerity measures demanded in exchange for the aid that has bolstered Greece since its economic meltdown.

But on Friday the eurogroup president also held his ground. Visibly tense, Dijsselbloem – the Dutch finance minister – said it was imperative that Athens did not lose the headway that had been achieved. He reiterated that the creditor group expected Greece to honour the terms of its existing bailout accords. “I realise the Greek people have gone through a lot. However, a lot of progress has been made and it is important not to lose that progress,” he said. “We both want Greece to regain its economic independence as soon as possible. It is of utmost importance that Greece remains on the path of economic recovery. Taking unilateral steps or ignoring previous agreements is not the way forward.”


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Austerity and sanctions was suicidal for the EU.

Spaniards hold mass rally for leftist Podemos ahead of elections
Published time: January 31, 2015 15:53

Tens of thousands of Spaniards have taken to the streets of central Madrid in support of Podemos, a leftist political party campaigning on an anti-austerity platform. The party’s popularity has soared in the wake of the Syriza victory in Greece.

Tens of thousands of Spaniards have taken to the streets of central Madrid in support of Podemos, a leftist political party campaigning on an anti-austerity platform. The party’s popularity has soared in the wake of the Syriza victory in Greece.

Podemos, which means “We can,” is currently leading in opinion polls, ahead of both of Spain’s mainstream parties as the regional, municipal and national elections approach.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Austerity causes social and political problems. Add to that sanctions against Russia and the EU committed suicide.

Polls Reveal Four out of Every Ten Italians No Longer Want Euro
17:19 31.01.2015

The number of Italians who want out of the Eurozone has risen to 40 percent since the start of 2014, meaning that two out of every five Italians think the country would do better with its own currency, according to a recently-released survey.

MOSCOW, January 31 (Sputnik) – Four out of every ten Italians no longer want the euro, according to a survey released on Friday by the Institute of Political, Economic and Social Studies, Eurispes.

The percent of Italians who want Italy to leave the Eurozone has risen from 26% at the start of 2014 to 40.1% now, the polling agency says.

More than half of the Euroskeptics think the single currency is the chief cause of Italy’s economic woes, as it has deprived the country of the possibility of devaluating its currency at will.

Italy’s Euroskeptics want to return to the lira; 22.7 percent of respondents claim that only the richer EU members have benefited from the euro and 71.5 percent of the respondents claim that their purchasing power has declined significantly over the past year. More than half of the Italians polled (57%) said they can’t manage to pay for large expenses.

Nearly one of every two Italians, or 45%, would like to leave the country and live abroad.

The agency says this marked an increase of 8% from 2006, two years before the global economic crisis.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Now this is a serious draw down from an exchange warehouse.

BOOM: SGE Withdrawals Week 3, 2015: 71 tonnes!
Posted on 30 Jan 2015 by Koos Jansen

As I wrote last time on data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), in week 2 of 2015 withdrawals from the vaults of the SGE (that equal Chinese wholesale demand) came in extremely high at 70 tonnes; the third highest amount ever. In week 3 (January 19 – 23), though, the Chinese withdrew even more at 71 tonnes, up 0.89 % w/w, and a new third highest amount ever. Year to date 202 tonnes have been withdrawn from the SGE vaults, up 15 % y/y. Like last week, this was happening while the price of gold was rising sharply, staggering numbers.



Blue (本周交割量) is weekly gold withdrawn from the vaults in Kg, green (计交割量) is the total YTD.

Corrected by the volume traded on the Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI), withdrawals in week 3 were at least 65 tonnes (read this post for a comprehensive explanation of the relationship between SGEI trading volume and withdrawals). Year to date withdrawals corrected by SGEI volume were at least 189 tonnes.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Looks like a lot of the EU have had it with the supposed cure.

Spain rally: Podemos holds Madrid mass ‘March for Change’
31 January 2015 Last updated at 08:45 ET

Tens of thousands of people have massed in central Madrid for a rally organised by radical Spanish leftists Podemos.

The “March for Change” is one of the party’s first outdoor mass rallies, as it looks to build on the recent victory of its close allies Syriza in Greece.

Podemos has surged into the lead in recent opinion polls, and says it will seek to write off part of Spain’s debt if it wins elections later this year.

Podemos says politicians should “serve the people, not private interests”.

The BBC’s Tom Burridge in Madrid says that there has been an impressive turnout and a carnival atmosphere at the rally.

Protesters are parading in the same streets that over the past sis years have seen many other gatherings against financial crisis cutbacks imposed by successive governments.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Recovery Velocity at escape level is such bull.

Minimum wage means most 2-bedroom apartments are out of reach
By Steve Contorno on Thursday, September 18th, 2014 at 10:00 a.m.

What kind of apartment can you afford on a minimum-wage salary?


Your options may be very limited.

“There is no state in the U.S. where a 40-hour minimum wage work week is enough to afford a two-bedroom apartment,” says a Facebook graphic posted Sept. 11 from, an advocacy group for young Americans.

At PolitiFact, we’ve noticed a growing number of Facebook users sharing graphics generated Its following on Facebook has grown from 100,000 in February to half a million today, and readers are constantly asking us to verify the information the group posts in catchy shareables.

The posts tend to highlight progressive issues, like income inequality and the cost of higher education. This particular post had just over 9,000 shares on Sept. 17. Given its reach — and the focus from Democrats on the minimum wage this election cycle — we wanted to give it a look. cited the National Low Income Housing Coalition, a group that advocates for policies that improve housing for the poor, as a source on the graphic.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

World War is possible.

Russia: If The West Keeps Supporting Ukraine, It Could Lead To A “Big Catastrophe”

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s envoy to the European security watchdog OSCE urged the United States and Europe on Thursday to stop supporting the “party of war” in Ukraine and warned “catastrophe” could result, Interfax news agency reported.

“I would like to appeal to the states that have influence on Kiev’s leadership, most of all to Washington. It’s time to stop indulging Ukraine’s party of war,” said Russia’s OSCE envoy, Andrei Kelin.

“Only a big catastrophe can result from such developments.”

Russia has increasingly blamed the United States and NATO for the flare-up in violence in eastern Ukraine. The West accuses Moscow of feeding a pro-Russian insurgency with guns and soldiers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said this week the Ukrainian army itself was a legion of NATO sent to geopolitically contain Russia.

“It’s time to stop covering (Kiev’s) inhuman actions, it is unacceptable to push (them) toward the continuation of war in eastern Ukraine,” said Kelin.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

You must GOTS and not wait.

Another Step Down The Long, Slow Road To IRA Nationalization
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/30/2015 20:20 -0500
Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

Let’s take a brief walk into financial reality for a moment.

At the time of this writing, the United States government’s official debt is nearly $18.1 trillion.

Now, let’s look at who the biggest owners of that debt are:

1) Taxpayers of the United States.

If you’ve held a job in the Land of the Free, 15.3% of your salary has gone to fund Social Security and Medicare.

Each of these programs holds massive trust funds that are supposed to pay out beneficiaries, both present and future.

Conveniently, the trust funds are required by law to buy US government debt.

And given that every single US taxpayer is an ultimate beneficiary of these trust funds, that ranks the people of the United States as among the biggest holders of US debt.

How sustainable is this? Not very.

The 2014 trustee reports for both Medicare and Social Security indicate that nearly ALL of the trust funds are sliding towards insolvency.

This isn’t some wild conjecture. The people in government who manage these trust funds are flat out telling us that they’re about to go bankrupt.

Let that sink in for a bit… then ask yourself: how long can two insolvent programs continue to be among the largest owners of US government debt?

2) The Federal Reserve

Now that we know Social Security and Medicare cannot continue to buy Treasuries indefinitely, we turn our attention to the Fed, which as of today, holds over $2.4 trillion in US government debt.

The Fed is essentially the lender of first resort to the US government and has singlehandedly managed to mop up the vast majority of government debt over the last several years.

Problem is, the Fed has to print money to do this. And the Fed has created so much money over the last few years that it’s now borderline insolvent.

The Fed’s capital now stands at just 1.27% of its total assets. To be clear, this is a razor thin margin of safety.

No other central bank in the world (except Canada, curiously) would be able to post such a pitiful number and still pretend to be credible.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It will not be long before the USA follows the Italian’s lead and add prostitution and hard street drugs to the GDP (if we have not already). We have already made R&D an intellectual asset in the GDP, counting it rather than as it has always been – an expense.

Memo To Yellen: What ‘Escape Velocity’—-The Q4 GDP Report Was Not “Solid”
by David Stockman • January 30, 2015

Janet Yellen and her band of money printers think they are driving the GDP forward toward the nirvana of full employment and the achievement of every last dime of “potential GDP”. What they are actually doing, instead, is inflating the Wall Street bubble to ever more dangerous heights because their monetary injections never make it to the real main street economy; they just whirl around in the canyons of Wall Street where they enable speculators to wildly inflate the price of risk assets.

Now comes another GDP report card, this one “disappointing”. Not only does it refute the claim of the Wall Street Keynesian chorus that the U.S. economy hit “escape velocity” last spring and summer, but it is also chock-a-block full of evidence that the Fed’s machinations have nothing to do with the performance of the real economy.

As usual, the seasonally adjusted numbers on an annualized basis are full of noise—-the most significant being inventory fluctuations. The latter flattered the 5% number that so excited the headline writers last quarter, but had the opposite impact this time. The actually gain in real financial sales, therefore, was only 1.8%—-even more tepid than the headline.

But the annualized quarterly figures just don’t cut it, in any event. National defense spending in Q4 declined at a whopping 13.2% annualized rate, but unfortunately, it did not reflect the actual hard-chop to the Pentagon’s budget that is long over-due. It was just the payback for the anomalous annualized growth of 15% in Q3. The latter period tracks the fiscal year-end in September, and therefore the big figure which ballooned Q3 GDP did not reflect economic growth at all—–just the usual scramble of bureaucrats to waste money at year end before appropriations lapse.

In fact, real defense spending in Q4 2014 was identical to the figure recorded for Q4 2013. This unfortunately means that the nation continues to waste vast resources on defense at a constant level, but that has nothing to do with the trend rate of economic growth.

So the point is to get out of the GDP reporting weeds. That requires eliminating the volatile element of inventory fluctuations, and looking at the rate of change on a year or over year basis in order to screen out temporary anomalies and dispense with the faulty seasonal adjustments entirely.


Posted at 10:34 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

There are two mistakes one can make along the road to truth – not going all the way, and not starting.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is policy, not an investment, and speaks to the great reset.

No paper manipulation will do anything but facilitate the outcome.

Russia increases gold purchases by 123%
Published time: January 30, 2015 12:27

The Central Bank of Russia bought a record amount of gold in the first 11 months of 2014 spending an estimated $6.1 billion. Increasing gold reserves attempts to reduce dependence on the dollar amid geopolitical tension, Mark O’Byrne of GoldCore, told RT.

Russia’s gold purchases accounted for a third of the world’s total of 461 tons, according to research by Thomson Reuters GFMS (Gold Fields Mineral Services). The amount of gold bought went up 123 percent from the previous year to 152 tons, worth $6.1 billion at current prices. It’s the most Russia has spent since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Given the tension between the US and Russia, it’s more likely Russia will sell dollar assets and buy gold, said O’Byrne.

“That will be done both to protect the ruble and potentially to position the ruble as a reserve currency in the long-term, but also as a signal to Washington,” he said, adding that it’s almost like a geopolitical move showing that Russia has a monetary and financial alternative and it can retaliate if economic sanctions were to deepen.


Greece Slams EU Bailout-ers: “We Don’t Want The $7 Billion, We Want To Rethink The Whole Program”
Tyler Durden on 01/30/2015 08:57 -0500








As Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem (of “template” foot in mouth infamy) heads to Athens for talks today, Bloomberg reports the new Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has a clear message for his European overlords of the past: “We don’t want the 7 billion euros…We want to sit down and rethink the whole program.” While this exposes the nation’s banking system to further runs, yesterday’s revelation that Russia could step in with financing should they need it, leaves Dijsselbloem and Shulz with less and less leverage even as Spain’s chief economic advisor warns, if Greece doesn’t play along, “there will be problems on all fronts.”

“Will Greece antagonize the European union? If they don’t there won’t be any problems,” Alvaro Nadal, chief economic adviser to the Spanish prime minister, said in a radio interview in Madrid on Friday. “If they do, there will be, on all fronts.”

And, as Bloomberg reports, that is what Greece’s new government is doing (as they promised the people),

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he’s not interested in persuading Greece’s official creditors to release the final 7 billion euros ($8 billion) of bailout funds as Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem headed to Athens for talks on Friday.


“They’re Out Of Their Minds” Gorbachev Slams US ‘Triumphalism’ For “Turning Cold War ‘Hot’”
Tyler Durden on 01/29/2015 19:55 -0500

In November of last year, Mikhail Gorbachev first warned “the world is on the brink of a new Cold War.” Then around the turn of the year he escalated his warning, fearing “a war of this kind could lead to a nuclear war,” hoping that no one “loses their nerve in this overheated situation.” Today, in an interview with Russian news agency Interfax, the 83-year-old former Soviet leader, asks “have they lost their minds?” raging that “the U.S. has already dragged us into a new Cold War, trying to openly implement its idea of triumphalism,” warning that “the ‘cold’ war will “lead to a ‘hot’ war,” concluding “The U.S. has been totally ‘lost in the jungle’ and is dragging us there as well.”

As Common Dreams reports,

Mikhail Gorbachev stated that the United States has pulled Russia into a new Cold War that faces the risk of further escalation.

The 83-year-old former Soviet leader made the comments on Thursday in an interview with Russian news agency Interfax.

“The U.S. has already dragged us into a new Cold War, trying to openly implement its idea of triumphalism,” he is quoted as saying.

“Where will that lead all of us?” he said.

“What’s next? Unfortunately, I cannot be sure that the Cold War will not bring about a ‘hot’ one. I’m afraid they might take the risk,” Gorbachev said, referring to the United States.


Bank Of Russia Surprises With Unexpected Rate Cut, Brings YTD Total Of Nations Easing To 14
Tyler Durden on 01/30/2015 06:38 -0500

Yesterday we reported that in less than 1 month in 2015, so far a whopping 13 countries have proceeded with “surprising” rate cuts: Singapore, Europe, Switzerland, Denmark, Canada, India, Turkey, Egypt, Romania, Peru, Albania, Uzbekistan and Pakistan. As of this morning, make that total 14, because in one of the more “surprising surprises” so far, it was none other than the Bank of Russia which cut its main interest rate from the 17% shocker it instituted at an emergency session on December 17 to halt the Ruble collapse (as a result of the crude price plunge) to 15% less than an hour ago. At the same time it cut the deposit rate to 14% and the repo rate to 16%.

More rate cuts may be coming:


Not surprisingly, the ruble tumbled in response with the USDRB jumping to 72, while the RTS stock index was down 2% at last check.

The question why Russia decided to cut rates now is relevant, and likely has to do with both the recent stabilization of crude prices in the mid-$40s, coupled with pressure from the administration to lower rates which have led to the Russian economy and banking sector grinding to a near halt.

More from the WSJ:

This was the first rate-setting meeting with Dmitry Tulin, a former deputy chairman who replaced Ksenia Yudaeva as monetary-policy chief earlier this month.


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Screwing around to get the best rate in Forex loans on anything can came back to bite you in a terminal way. Carry trades can get you carried out on a stretcher. Better GOTS.

Romania warns of risks to euro loans after franc rise
Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:45am EST

BUCHAREST, Jan 30 (Reuters) – Romania’s central bank governor warned on Friday that the same “moral hazard” risks attached to home owners borrowing in Swiss franc-denominated loans could spread to euro loans if policymakers offered unrealistic solutions to the franc’s surge.

Hundreds of thousands of people across Central and Eastern Europe took out loans denominated in Swiss francs in the 2000s despite warnings from economists and policymakers, including from the Romanian central bank. The borrowers were attracted by lower interest rates than those offered in local currencies.

Mortgage payments are set to soar since the Swiss central bank abruptly removed the cap on the currency earlier in January, although the impact is expected to be lower in Romania than in some of its wealthier neighbours. (Reporting by Luiza Ilie; Writing by Matthias Williams; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)


The Present Financial System Will Not Survive
King World News weekly – Jan 29, 2015

Egon von Greyerz: “Eric, as you know I’ve had a long-standing forecast — for over 10 years — that gold will reach $10,000 in today’s money. I’m also convinced that in the future the world won’t have anything resembling today’s money because of all the money printing that will take place as well as the accompanying hyperinflations. So in real terms the gold price will be a lot higher than $10,000. Everything is falling into place for the destruction of the current monetary system. Unfortunately this will also destroy a lot of people’s lives because they won’t be prepared or even understand why the worldwide meltdown is happening….

Click here to read the interview

You may view the post at:

Matterhorn Asset Management AG / GoldSwitzerland

Paul Craig Roberts – European Empire Now In Danger Of Crumbling
January 30, 2015


As the Greeks are now moving to a take a stronger position against the EU, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts believes that the European empire is now in danger of crumbling.  He also warned that the West may be in grave danger if the situation in Greece spins out of control.

By Dr. Paul Craig Roberts Former U.S. Treasury Official

January 30 (King World News) – Having just written that Greece needs Spartans in order to prevail over its creditors and the EU, the new Greek government is showing signs of being Spartans. Listen to these words from Greece’s new Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras:  “We should not accept or recognize the government of neo-Nazis in Ukraine.”  “The EU lacks democracy, and citizens do not believe that their vote can change policy.”


Janet Yellen Saves The Day: Stocks Soar After Fed Chairwoman Tells Democrats To BTFD
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/29/2015 16:06 -0500

Because everyone knows you BTFD when Janet Yellen speaks (and Sell The F**king Shit, aka STFS, out of precious metals in the middle of surging currency volatility and monetray policy chaos…)

Thank The Market Gods for Janet Yellen… Stocks were rescued back above their 100DMAs to prove everything is fine…


Which dragged all stock indices back into the green post-QE3


The big news today was Gold & Silver crushed… Crude new cycle lows… and Swiss Franc slapped hard and put away wet… (oh and stocks bounced)

Stocks started to squeeze after Europe closed (as usual) and then Janet Yellen struck with hints to Senate Democrats that its tiem to BTFD!! Ramped back to unch from yesterday’s FOMC but could not hold it!!