Posted at 5:59 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

It appears there is a great deal of confusion about what the FASB did today.

It appears where impaired assets losses are concerned, FASB has caved in and is not requiring immediate write offs.

It appears that where valuation of portfolios is concerned, the rule REMAINS fair market value.

This is the present condition according to FASB.

The assumption in the market today was that FASB had caved in on Fair Market Value which they have not. This is good news for whatever ethics there is left in this degraded system.

Posted at 5:49 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

Credit Suisse says that most economists on the street which have been ridiculously bearish on China, and Wall Street as well as brokers worldwide will have to change their tune. This is only happening after China has rallied 30% in the last few months. China has bought massive amounts of industrial minerals worldwide and will buy gold if and when the IMF sells. China’s GDP will grow at least 8% in 2009 and faster in 2010. This leaves the rest of the shrinking developed world in the dust.

Respectfully yours,

Monty Guild
www.GuildInvestment.com

Dear Jim,

What a mess. You called it before with your brilliant Formula while most others were calling for a recovery in 6 months! The 20 trillion (yikes) estimate looks well within easy reach you and Monty predicted…

Best,
CIGA BT

Financial Rescue Nears GDP as Pledges Top $12.8 Trillion (Update1)
By Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry

March 31 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed $12.8 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year, to stem the longest recession since the 1930s.

New pledges from the Fed, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. include $1 trillion for the Public-Private Investment Program, designed to help investors buy distressed loans and other assets from U.S. banks. The money works out to $42,105 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. and 14 times the $899.8 billion of currency in circulation. The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.

More…

Here is more of what you have been warning us CIGAs for a long time. Social security is soon to be obsolete…

Recession Puts a Major Strain On Social Security Trust Fund
As Payroll Tax Revenue Falls, So Does Surplus
By Lori Montgomery
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, March 31, 2009; Page A04

The U.S. recession is wreaking havoc on yet another front: the Social Security trust fund.

With unemployment rising, the payroll tax revenue that finances Social Security benefits for nearly 51 million retirees and other recipients is falling, according to a report from the Congressional Budget Office. As a result, the trust fund’s annual surplus is forecast to all but vanish next year — nearly a decade ahead of schedule — and deprive the government of billions of dollars it had been counting on to help balance the nation’s books.

While the new numbers will not affect payments to current Social Security recipients, experts say, the disappearing surplus could have considerable implications for the government’s already grim financial situation.

More…

Hey Dan,

I thought you and Jim would like to see this.

Thanks for all you guys do for us!

CIGA Brian

Déjà Vu?
Chicago Tribune, 1934. Has anything changed?

Thanks Brian

That is amazing! It is EXACTLY the same as today… Thanks for sending this incredible cartoon. I will pass it along to Jim!

Sincere best,
Dan

Jim,

Taking delivery is working.

CIGA Eric

Dear Eric,

If there is any sense to this article then the gold is borrowed by the short, not by the Comex.

Regards,
Jim

Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default?
April 02, 2009

On Tuesday morning, gold derivatives dealers, who had sold short in the face of a fast rising gold price, faced a serious predicament. Some 27,000 + contracts, representing about 15% of the April COMEX gold futures contracts remained open. Technically, short sellers are required to give “notice” of delivery to long buyers. However, in reality, buyers are the ones who control the amount of gold to be delivered. They “demand” delivery of physical gold by holding futures contracts past the expiration date. This time, long buyers were demanding in droves.

In normal times, very few people do this. Only about 1% or less of gold contracts must be delivered. The lack of delivery demand allows the casino-like world of paper gold futures contracts to operate. Very few short sellers actually expect or intend to deliver real gold. They are, mostly, merely playing with paper. It was amazing, therefore, when March 30, 2009 came and passed, and so many people stood for delivery, refusing to part with their long gold futures positions.

On Tuesday, March 31st, Deutsche Bank (DB) amazed everyone even more, by delivering a massive 850,000 ounces, or 850 contracts worth of the yellow metal. By the close of business, even after this massive delivery, about 15,050 April contracts, or 1.5 million ounces, still remained to be delivered. Most of these, of course, are unlikely to be the obligations of Deutsche Bank. But, the fact that this particular bank turned out to be one of the biggest short sellers of gold, is a surprise. Most people presumed that the big COMEX gold short sellers are HSBC (HBC) and/or JP Morgan Chase (JPM). That may be true. However, it is abundantly clear that they are not the only game in town.

Closely connected institutions, it seems, do not have to worry about acting irresponsibly, in taking on more obligations than they can fulfill. Mysteriously, on the very same day that gold was due to be delivered to COMEX long buyers, at almost the very same moment that Deutsche Bank was giving notice of its deliveries, the ECB happened to have “sold” 35.5 tons, or a total of 1,141,351 ounces of gold, on March 31, 2009. Convenient, isn’t it? Deutsche Bank had to deliver 850,000 ounces of physical gold on that day, and miraculously, the gold appeared out of nowhere.

More…

Posted at 3:52 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

My Dear Friends,

Anti gold promotion of IMF gold sales as negative to gold is simply rank STUPIDITY, without historic references, and totally wrong. There is no more I can say about that except I am 100% correct. All and every ounce they have will be consumed by other central banks and NEVER see the free market. In the 1970s this was extremely bullish for the gold market because it let major buyers in at a singular price on blocks they could not have otherwise entered in such a class manner. 2009-2012 will be similar.

Gold is headed to $1160, $1224 and $1650 and that is just for starters.

When it is all said and done the dollar/gold inverse relationship remains the primary criteria for the precious metal.

Please do not contact me asking or complaining about this as my ability to maintain decorum will be strained.

Our living genius, Martin Armstrong, has come up with three touches and through the $1000 mark. Does that sound like anything you have read here? I do not mean to infer that his three touches and past 1000 was read here by Armstrong, but that we agree independent of each other that this is the performance of gold to be anticipated.
Armstrong is looking at $2500 and $5000 for gold. He does not limit gold there but anticipates those numbers under certain market scenarios.

Respectfully Yours,
Jim

Click chart to enlarge in PDF format

April022009-001.jpg

Here is my former partner Yra Harris’ take on today and the G20. Yra and I had great fun running the Comex and Chicago wild in the gold pits for many years.

“The 1 trillion dollar package put forth by this group is far more than I expected. This is why they get buy-ins from everybody and why countries like Brazil accepted protectionist actions from the G7 countries and largely acquiesced to the agreement. By creating all of this new liquidity the commodity producers come away as huge winners as this will keep the emerging countries going without worrying about lack of finance. The big winners will also be the global shipping companies as the IMF has the authority for a 250 billion trade finance agreement which will support trade and hence shipping. Prior to this shipping was struggling because it was hard for global traders to get pre-financed. Gold has suffered because there was much discussion about gold sales from the IMF to raise more capital but these sales have to be approved by congress and other legislatures. This is weighing large on the gold. If the precious metals get a bid it will come from the Chinese offering to swap dollars for the gold which would make sense if the Chinese are really worried about the dollar. Platinum is rallying so we will see precious industrials holding up as the global growth story is given a boost. This also leads to the selling of the long end of the debt market – reallocation from bonds to equities – but real rates are going too high which flies in the face of what the US market needs. Again we wind up with a situation of one policy undermining everything else going on. Gold will be a very important indicator going forward so pay attention especially to all the gold crosses. I will say this: the US Administration has sold the role of the United States out to international needs and we will see what that costs. The outcome will no matter what be a decreased demand for dollars going forward as the SDR moves more to center stage.”
–Yra

Posted at 3:06 PM (CST) by & filed under Trader Dan Norcini.

Dear CIGAs,

The sharp rally in equities has convinced many investors that the worst of the economic turndown is behind us. That coupled with auto sales numbers that were not as horrific as expected (only less horrific) has fed ideas that the economy is bottoming out and that the recovery will begin later this year. All safe haven plays are therefore being jettisoned as investors plow back into equities with bonds, the Dollar, and gold all getting summarily dumped. After all, who needs a safe haven if the water is safe to play in? That is the mentality that is dominant for now. If that were not enough, we had the usual old soldier trotted out of his worn out barracks once again by Gordon Brown, namely, gold sales by the IMF. Do I hear China saying, “Please say YES IMF – we’ll take it all and then some”?

I do not agree with the slap happy economy view because I do not see the factors in place that can sustain it; namely, jobs and low levels of existing consumer indebtedness. Where is the spending to come from that will fuel a lasting resurgence in the economy when so many consumers are struggling with levels of indebtedness that are swamping them? How many are going to rush forth and immediately take on new levels of indebtedness when they have doubts about the viability of their own employment merely because the stock market has rallied? Also, there is growing concern about even the prime mortgage market where many homeowners are sitting on properties that are now valued at levels far below the current mortgage value.  I understand that the stock market is a forward looking indicator but there is a world of difference between an economy that bottoms, recovers and moves higher  and one in which a bottom can be struck but that same economy remains mired in a sideways grind for years on end. Just look at Japan if you have any doubts. When the US is basically following the same path that the Japanese followed going all the way back to the bursting of their bubble in late 1989 – 1990, why should be expect much difference in results?

It does clear up one thing however – the rally in the mining shares, as evidenced by the moves up in the HUI and the XAU yesterday, was proven to be not a leading indicator for bullion but rather a rally in all things paper. When the focus shifted back to the underlying metal behind the mining equities, they were dumped. It just goes to show how difficult it is to make projections on anything market related today based solely on the technical price charts. Breakouts, breakdowns, everything is and should be suspect in this new insane world of day traders’ delights.

There are a couple of things at play here – the first is that we might be seeing the beginning of the effects of the Fed’s inflationary quantitative easing policies taking hold in the world of equities.

Secondly – Instead of the weaker dollar being viewed as beneficial to gold, investors are looking at the mass stimulus effects of quantitative easing and rate cuts elsewhere around the globe as beneficial to those respective struggling economies and are therefore bidding up their currencies from depressed levels and moving away from the Dollar, where comparatively speaking, yields on government bonds are lower than those of several other nations. As they do so, gold, measured in terms of various major currencies, is dropping quite sharply. For example, gold priced in British Pounds is moving closer to 600 after peaking closer to 700.

This is the “reflation trade” in which the price of both paper and hard assets experience the full effects of currency debauchment globally. This means “risk” is back in vogue and that translates to gold is out along with bonds. This is the short term. The long term is that at some point the focus will shift back again to what is happening to all of the major currencies as their Central Banks flood the world with paper and gold will then reflate. As to when that will occur, who knows? It could be tomorrow for all I know the way these markets have become any more.

If you will notice, crude oil shot up higher today, even after the incredibly bearish EIA report of yesterday showed us swimming in the stuff to the extent of something like a 19 year high in supply. That is proof to me that the black liquid is being pushed up by investors in more of an inflation play than anything based on its current fundamentals. When the Dollar gets hit hard, computer algorithms rush buy orders to the crude oil pit and that is all she wrote. Up it goes, no questions asked. Personally I think this is sheer idiocy but one cannot argue with billions of dollars being blindly thrown into an assortment of markets by wild-eyed hedge funds and index funds. All you can do is go with the flow or get the heck out of the way. The Dollar goes down – commodities in general go up. The Dollar goes up – commodities in general go down. It is all computers and nothing more or nothing less. As Monty pointed out the other day and I echoed then and am echoing now – long term buy and hold strategies in this new world of hedge fund madness is becoming a dinosaur.  The only thing that matters is where the order flow is going on any particular day. Traders can make money out of this but investors with a longer term horizon can be driven mad by the extent of the seemingly inexplicable price swings.

Back to gold – the back to risk trade brought a wave of both fresh selling and long liquidation into that market and took it down below the very tight recent trade range between $940 and $920. That touched off more sell stops that then took it all the way down to the bottom of the larger trading range that has contained it for some time now, with $960 the top and $900 the bottom. Price broke through the bottom of that larger range but then rebounded and returned within it. Considering the extent of the selling earlier in the session, it is a minor miracle that gold was able to claw its way back above the $900 level. Longs will need to dig in to keep bears from attempting to push price back down below the $900 level. Should gold take out that price level, it will move down to $890 -  $885. A breach of that level would do significant technical damage to the chart. If the bulls can hold it back inside the $900 level, they have a good shot at reinforcing the range trade and attracting more short term range buyers to their cause. They will need to move prices back above the $920 level however to give themselves a bit of breathing room.

Incidentally, yesterday there was a rather dramatic drawdown reported in both the gold and silver Comex warehouse numbers. Gold stocks dropped by a total of 371,000 ounces with over 200,000 of that coming from the registered category. Silver showed a HUGE drawdown of 2.18 million  ounces with 1.2 million of that coming out of the registered category. The bulk of both the gold and silver drawdowns came out of the HSBC warehouses. I am not quite sure what to make of this but it was way of the ordinary and bears watching. There still remains about 2.7 million ounces of registered gold sitting around up there. April gold deliveries have now began to drastically tail off but so far we are over 1 million ounces taken this month. Only 3,555 contracts remain outstanding in the April contract as of yesterday or 355,500 ounces of potential stoppers but after today’s sell off, I suspect that number will be reduced quite a bit.

Back to the mining shares -  the HUI is very close to putting in a bearish outside reversal pattern on its daily price chart. Bulls will need to hold price from falling below yesterday’s low on the close today to prevent further technical-related selling pressure. The XAU will need to maintain a close above 131 both today and certainly tomorrow, to prevent a topping formation developing. They have managed to take the gold and silver shares off of their worst session levels here near midday but their work is not yet complete. If they can thwart the bears on a day like today, they might just yet recapture the initiative once again.

Bonds fell out of bed today, much to the consternation no doubt of the Fed which is running out of options to keep long term interest rates artificially low. One wonders who will be left to buy overpriced bonds if the equities continue to rally feeding ideas of recovery. The bonds could see a sharp breakdown in spite of concerted buying by the Fed to hold them artificially higher.  They obviously want to have it both ways – soaring equities and soaring bonds which is another way of saying, soaring equities and cheap money and low rates. If the Dollar continues dropping like a lead brick, they are not going to get their wish on the interest rate front since the market will negate their plans.

Equities – what more can be said about them – happy days are here again. I need to sign off here and go pick up a truck load of my buddies to rush down to Best Buy and load up on new plasma TV’s. We might have to throw in some 4 wheelers for the hell of it or even go for broke and buy some new cars instead. After all, we are being patriots here and doing our part to support the economy.

Click chart to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

image

Posted at 1:59 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

My Dear Friends,

There is nothing whatsoever out of the G-20 meeting that will do anything more than add to the monetary stimulus now overtaking reason everywhere.

The PR storm and market manipulation is reaching spiritual levels, yet PR makes nothing more than a momentary difference.

Maintain your reasoning and do not listen to the great pretender, your emotions.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

Posted at 12:37 AM (CST) by & filed under Greg Hunter.

Dear CIGAs,

“Eat the Bankers” was written on a sign I saw in the background of the media coverage of the G20 meeting in London. To me the sign embodies the outrage working people have with the bankers. Not because there is an economic downturn but because the bankers are being put on a pedestal while the working stiff is being thrown under the bus. Nothing gets the attention of working people more than their jobs, income, pensions and savings being destroyed. It’s been reported that global financial assets lost 50 trillion dollars last year. Meanwhile, the bankers get unlimited bailouts and backdoor payouts for removing toxic assets from their balance sheets. For the most part, these are worthless or near worthless securities they themselves created and profited from. Bill Gross of PIMCO recently said that the Federal Reserve would have to expand its balance sheet to “5 or 6 trillion dollars.” The Fed currently has 2.2 trillion in these toxic assets bought from the banks to clear their balance sheets of bad debt. In total, the U.S. has already spent or committed in the neighborhood of 10 trillion dollars to “fix” the financial crisis. That’s enough money to just about pay off every mortgage in America!! Even with this massive amount of money spent or committed, the “powers” still say the credit markets are “clogged.” Is that like a giant log jam of money that needs to be blown up to get credit flowing again? My question is simple: How many more trillions will it take before the greedy incompetent bankers, who wrecked the world economy, will loan us our own money back? The answer is– no one really knows and even if they did know, they would not tell you because the number is just way, way too scary.

Tuesday President Obama said this, “We can not continue to excuse poor decisions. We can not make the survival of our auto industry dependent on an unending flow of tax payer dollars.” The White House asked GM CEO Rick Wagoner to step down. (Don’t feel bad for Mr. Wagoner, he will get more that 20 million in accrued compensation.) On top of that, President Obama even threatened bankruptcy for GM and Chrysler. Some speculate that was a ploy to get the bondholders and the UAW to take a haircut and keep GM from the taint of filing Chapter 11. Right on Mr. President! Now apply that kind of tough love to the financial institutions. But that is not what is happening to the folks who caused this mess. Instead of taking insolvent financial institutions into receivership, the banks, insurance companies and brokerage firms are getting TARP money from Treasury and toxic assets taken in trade for Treasury Bills from the Fed. No tough love there, just an… “industry dependent on an unending flow of taxpayer dollars.”

Meanwhile, back in the streets of London a protester holds a sign that says, “Capitalism isn’t Working.” Philip Jennings, UNI Global Union General Secretary, whose group represents 20 million workers, told CNBC that, “It isn’t working people that got us into this mess but it is working people paying the price.” Jennings predicts 50 million new unemployed and 200 million more will go into poverty. If that happens, civil unrest could breakout on a global scale and the financial crisis will morph into a catastrophe where no one, especially the bankers, will be safe.

Posted at 8:18 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear Friends,

Please watch the following video of the Pakistani Taliban threatening a massive attack on the White House in Washington, DC.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2009/03/31/ST2009033101628.html

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

More help for the dollar from one of its Friends

Chavez to seek Arab backing for `petro-currency’
By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press Writer 

DOHA, Qatar – Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sought Arab support Tuesday for a proposed oil-backed currency to challenge the U.S. dollar in his latest swipe at Washington’s dominance in global financial affairs.

It’s highly unlikely Chavez will gain any serious momentum for his "petro-currency" proposal at a summit of South American and Arab League leaders, but it represented another attempt to undercut the dollar’s standing as the world’s leading commercial currency.

China has struck deals — most recently this week with Argentina — to conduct trade in currencies other than the dollar. Iran has proposed replacing the dollar with the euro or other currencies to set worldwide oil prices.

Chavez plans to visit both Iran and China following the one-day Qatar gathering, whose agenda focuses on trade issues but also touches on Arab worries about rival Iran’s growing influence in Latin America.

Key oil-producing members of the Arab League, such as Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, have close ties to Washington and will almost certainly reject any plan to shun the dollar. But the summit kicks off another high-profile foreign trip for Chavez in his efforts to build economic and diplomatic links to confront the United States.

More…

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It can get lonely when holding onto your gold lifeline as the propaganda, lies and misinterpretations are thrown at you from every corner.

Remember, all of us at JSMineset stand with you. You are not alone.

http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=2539741

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Guess Who Did It?

clip_image001

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Tell these people that the economy has bottomed.

ADP Says U.S. Companies Reduced Payrolls by 742,000 (Update2)
By Bob Willis

April 1 (Bloomberg) — Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 742,000 workers in March, pointing to no relief in sight for the labor market amid the longest recession in seven decades, a private report based on payroll data showed today.

The drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge was larger than economists forecast and the most since records began in 2001. February’s reading was revised to show cut of 706,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 697,000.

Companies are slashing staff as tight credit conditions and shrinking household wealth cause sales to shrink. The Labor Department may report in two days that employers cut payrolls in March for a 15th consecutive month, putting jobs losses in the current downturn at more than 5 million, according to a Bloomberg survey.

“The weakness is distributed across all components of the economy,” Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis, said in a conference call. “We are going to see several more months of serious bleeding before we see lesser job losses.”

The ADP report was forecast to show a decline of 663,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections were for decreases ranging from 525,000 to 750,000.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

So very few have given consideration to the geopolitical domino effect Pakistan’s transmission to Taliban control infers:

Insurgents threaten Pakistan’s ‘existence’: US general

WASHINGTON (AFP) — Islamist insurgents pose a growing threat not only to Afghanistan but to Pakistan’s "very existence," the commander of US forces in the region, General David Petraeus, said on Wednesday.

"The Pakistani military has stepped up operations" against the militants but more action was needed, Petraeus told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked groups based near the Afghan border represent "an ever more serious threat to Pakistan’s very existence," he said.

The chief of US Central Command said "the situation in Pakistan is closely linked to that of Afghanistan" and praised a new strategy unveiled last week by President Barack Obama for the Afghan war as a "comprehensive" approach.

Describing the challenges of the US mission in Afghanistan, Petraeus said there would be no quick victory and that it would require "a sustained substantial commitment" after more than seven years of war.

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

My answer is absolutely no. No, because there is no recovery to blot out in the first place. This recovery is a statistical construct at this point.

Will the Dark Cloud of Commercial Real Estate Blot Out the U.S. Recovery?
[Editor's Note: This is the first of a two-part look at how the U.S. real estate market will affect the nation's economic recovery. Today's focus: Commercial real estate. Next week: The residential rebound.]
By William Patalon III
Executive Editor
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

Stock prices have rallied for much of last month. The housing market has shown some early signs of life. And some of the latest economic reports haven’t been the disasters that many experts feared.

While this is hardly a portrait of an economy on a roll, there are enough bright spots to nurture a feeling that the U.S. economy is finally on a path to recovery – especially given the upbeat response the latest elements of the Obama administration’s fix-it plans have received.

But there’s a dark cloud in this picture. And it’s big – big enough, in fact, to potentially finish off the U.S. banking sector, blotting out the U.S. economy’s new dawn.

That dark cloud is the commercial real estate sector. With rent prices falling and vacancies rising due to the recession-weakened economy, delinquencies on commercial mortgages are already escalating steeply.  And the credit crunch bred from the recession is often making it impossible for property owners to avoid deeper trouble by refinancing.

"It’s a one-two punch combination: First, soaring vacancies take the wind out of positive cash flow; then the credit crisis hits like a rabbit punch, snapping off the main arteries to refinancing," says Money Morning Contributing Editor Shah Gilani, a retired hedge-fund manager and expert on the U.S. credit crisis who predicted the implosion of the commercial real estate sector several years ago. "This is like Samson hitting the ground. The giant asset class we call commercial real estate is not going to get up any time soon."

More…

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Home sales:

Keep in mind that when a home is foreclosed on it shows as a sale of that home due to the deed transfer. A foreclosure of a partially or fully completed building project will book as the sale of a new home as the product of a deed transfer of a home not resided in. Bank liquidations at auction of either will show as a sale of that home again due to the deed transfer according to definition of the deed.

Don’t expect this definition when homes sales are released.

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There was a time I wrote off the Russian professor’s prediction that the US would break down into separate independent groups of states. I still do, but with less intensity because I have to admit that there are currents right now of Rebellion against Washington.

The pushback against federal power began under Bush, but may now be accelerating.
By Patrik Jonsson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
from the March 27, 2009 edition

Atlanta – There’s an old joke in South Carolina: Confederate President Jefferson Davis may have surrendered at the Burt-Stark mansion in Abbeville, S.C., in 1865, but the people of state Rep. Michael Pitts’s district never did.

With revolutionary die-hards behind him, Mr. Pitts has fired a warning shot across the bow of the Washington establishment. As the writer of one of 28 state "sovereignty bills" – one even calls for outright dissolution of the Union if Washington doesn’t rein itself in – Pitts is at the forefront of a states’ rights revival, reasserting their say on everything from stem cell research to the Second Amendment.

"Washington can be a bully, but there’s evidence right now that there are people willing to resist our bully," said Pitts, by phone from the state capitol of Columbia.

Just as California under President Bush asserted itself on issues ranging from gun control to medical marijuana, a motley cohort of states – from South Carolina to New Hampshire, from Washington State to Oklahoma – are presenting a foil for President Obama’s national ambitions. And they’re laying the groundwork for a political standoff over the 10th Amendment, which cedes all power not granted to Washington to the people.

The movement’s success will largely depend on whether Washington sees these legislative insurgents as serious – or, as Pitts puts it, as just "a bunch of rednecks."

More…

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I like the slogan of the demonstrators. April 1st is Financial Fools Day. Seems appropriate…

The G20 protests in central London turned violent today ahead of tomorrow’s summit, with a band of demonstrators close to the Bank of England storming a Royal Bank of Scotland branch, and baton-wielding police charging a sit-down protest by students.

G20 protests: riot police clash with demonstrators

Much of the protesting, from an estimated 4,000 people in the financial centre of the capital, was peaceful, but some bloody skirmishes broke out as police tried to keep thousands of people in containment pens surrounding the Bank of England on Threadneedle Street.

A minority of demonstrators seemed determined to cause damage, seeking confrontation as they surged towards police lines. Late tonight, much of the City remained cordoned off.

By about 8pm, running battles between riot police and demonstrators were taking place across London Bridge. Bottles, sticks and bricks were thrown.

Nearer the heart of the City, police moved in to break up a ‘climate camp’ on Bishopsgate, with baton-wielding officers said to be pushing through a line of tents and bicycles. At least five armoured police vehicles were also at the scene.

More…

Posted at 2:58 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Hey Jim,

You posted a link: Click here to view the link… 

ADP is wildly inconsistent, but Challenger, Grey, and Christmas Announced Layoffs time series is not. Announced layoffs grew 103% year-over-year (YOY) in March. This growth rate represents only a slight downtick from the December 2008 high of 132% YOY. Announced layoffs are soaring. This means it will be increasingly difficult for the birth/death model to hide the magnitude of the job loss.

Regards,
CIGA Eric

Dear Mr. Smith,

Thank you for your comment on the uptick rule. The Commission has announced that it will consider proposals relating to short sale price tests at an open meeting scheduled for April 8, 2009. The meeting will be webcast from the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov/news/openmeetings.shtml.

Should the Commission vote to publish a proposal for comment, a comment file for the rulemaking will be created once the proposal is published by the Commission. Your comment will be placed in that file.

Sincerely,

RICHARD G SUGARMAN
Office of Investor Education and Advocacy
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
(202)551-6551

Jim,

Only a fool would be without physical Gold in hand now with so many geopolitical challenges and paper currency’s hollow value.

Regards,
CIGA Pedro

"In an interview conducted shortly before he was sworn in today as prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu laid down a challenge for Barack Obama. The American president, he said, must stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons—and quickly—or an imperiled Israel may be forced to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities itself."

More…

Dear Green Hornet,

The key to the transmission of latent money creation such as the payment to AIG in bailouts which moves into AIG from bailout schemes out the back door to winners on the toxic OTC derivatives is velocity of money. As velocity of money increases, the latent M3 becomes present time M3.

Normally it takes a recovery in business activity to stimulate the Velocity of Money, which is an engine of inflation price wise.

These are not normal times.

Never has any government dared to create in one year monetary inflation equal to the GDP of that country. This is going to be an accomplishment of the USA in this year.

Every hyper-inflation that has ever occurred has happened when Velocity of Money was stimulated by a loss of confidence in the currency unit in the midst of a period of horrid business activity.

This is what will bring hyperinflation to the US dollar and price inflation in the midst of a deflationary depression. There is no means to drain this liquidity regardless of what the Fed would have you believe. There is no exit on this Highway to Hell as the president of the EU labelled it.

From Wikipedia:

* M0: The total of all physical currency, plus accounts at the central bank that can be exchanged for physical currency.

* M1: The total of all physical currency part of bank reserves + the amount in demand accounts ("checking" or "current" accounts).

* M2: M1 + most savings accounts, money market accounts, retail money market mutual funds,and small denomination time deposits (certificates of deposit of   under $100,000).

* M3: M2 + all other CDs (large time deposits, institutional money market mutual fund balances), deposits of eurodollars and repurchase agreements.

When the Federal Reserve announced in 2005 that they would cease publishing M3 statistics in March 2006, they explained that M3 did not convey any additional information about economic activity compared to M2, and thus, had not been used in determining monetary policy for years. Therefore, the costs to collect M3 data outweighed the benefits the data provided.[12] Some politicians have spoken out against the Federal Reserve’s decision to cease publishing M3 statistics and have urged the U.S. Congress to take steps requiring the Federal Reserve to do so. Congressman Ron Paul claimed that "M3 is the best description of how quickly the Fed is creating new money and credit. Common sense tells us that a government central bank creating new money out of thin air depreciates the value of each dollar in circulation."[17] Some of the data used to calculate M3 are still collected and published on a regular basis.[12] Current alternate sources of M3 data are available from the private sector[18].

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Regards,
Jim

Dear Jim,

A lot of people think there will be a recovery. They also think it can’t get any worse!

Banks walking away from foreclosures are pretty serious. My heart bleeds for these people losing all they own…

You have been warning people since 2002 to be defensive, get rid of debt and buy physical gold! Too bad more did not listen. I fear buying right now is like catching a falling safe!

Best,
CIGA BT

Banks Starting to Walk Away on Foreclosures
By SUSAN SAULNY
Published: March 29, 2009

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Mercy James thought she had lost her rental property here to foreclosure. A date for a sheriff’s sale had been set, and notices about the foreclosure process were piling up in her mailbox.

Ms. James had the tenants move out, and soon her white house at the corner of Thomas and Maple Streets fell into the hands of looters and vandals, and then, into disrepair. Dejected and broke, Ms. James said she salvaged but a lesson from her loss.

So imagine her surprise when the City of South Bend contacted her recently, demanding that she resume maintenance on the property. The sheriff’s sale had been canceled at the last minute, leaving the property title — and a world of trouble — in her name.

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