Posted at 1:15 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Don’t Worry About The NYSE: If The CBIP Fails, It’s Time To Panic
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/08/2015 12:18 -0400

The NYSE crashed and almost nobody noticed (for a few minutes) because market levels were stable (and because retail is long gone). Why? Because most trading these days is done via derivatives anyway on exchanges like the CME,  where one specific program may be the buyer of last reserve today: the CBIP.

What is the CBIP (first discused here)? Here is a reminder.

1. What is the Central Bank Incentive Program?

The Central Bank Incentive Program (“CBIP”) allows Qualified Participants to receive discounted fees for their proprietary trading of CME Group products. All trading activity under the CBIP must be conducted directly through accounts registered to the Qualified Participant or separate accounts managed by a third party on behalf of the Qualified Participant. Qualified Participants receive discounted fees on CME, CBOT, and NYMEX products and COMEX futures products for electronic trading only. Qualified Participant will receive discounted fees January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015.

2. How does an applicant qualify for the CBIP?

To qualify for and become a participant in CBIP (a “Qualified Participant”), the applicant must:

Be a non-U.S. central bank, multilateral development bank, multilateral financial institution, sub-regional bank, aid coordination group, or an international organization of central banks

Complete a CBIP application and be approved by CME Group

Execute all trades in the Qualified Participant’s name

Register one or more portfolio managers

Have a relationship with a CME Group clearing member

Have authority to participate in a fee incentive program (i.e. no public or internal policies prohibit participation)

More…

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What is the difference between animals and people? A lot.

The Hug of the Century
Published: July 14, 2014

A woman found a badly injured lion in the forest. She took it with her and nursed it back to health. When it was better, she made arrangements with a zoo to take the lion and give it a new and happy home. This video was taken when she returned to the zoo some time later to see how her lion was doing. Watch the lion’s amazing reaction when he sees her!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLB_u695wTg

Posted at 1:08 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

This says it all, about how our government treats us!

Bigger Jackpot in total dollar terms for the government, harder for consumer to win, BUT… easier to win a measly $4.00.

When I visited Germany years ago, they had a different Lotto system. The maximum you could win was $2 million. If there were no winners week after week, the lower tiers would increase.

All amounts over $2 million were divvied up amongst the lower levels.

For example, hitting 3 correct numbers out of 6 usually paid you about $5-$15.

If no winners in the subsequent weeks, that payout began creeping higher to around $40 or $50 or even $100. Nice return for a 50 cent bet.

Not so here. One person gets to win a billion dollars (and gets taxed to hell). And … because it’s so difficult now to win, the governments sit on the accumulated proceeds for weeks and months, collecting enormous interest or utilizing the funds to meet state expenses.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Procter & Gamble’s big deal, Powerball odds and NYSE day 2
By Yahoo Finance

The U.S. may soon get its first ever one billion dollar Powerball jackpot, according to new analysis by website FiveThirtyEight.com. That’s because the New York State Lottery Commissioners approved tweaks to the Powerball jackpot odds…it’s now more difficult to win the big prize. But the odds of winning $4? That will improve from 1 in 111 to 1 in 92. The new rules will take effect for the October 7 drawing.

More…

 

Jim,

It’s coming! GOTS!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Systemic "Holidays" Are Coming to Banks, Money Market Accounts and More in the Weeks Ahead
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 07/08/2015 12:21 -0400

This morning both the NYSE broke (canceling all open orders) and China outlawed selling stocks for large investors.

These two items seem completely unrelated… however, the reality is they are both based on a them we outlined back in May 2015.

That theme is as follows: that as the next Crisis unfolds, it will more and more difficult to get your money out of the financial system.

The reason for this concerns the actual structure of the financial system. As we’ve outlined previously, that structure is as follows:

1)   The total currency (actual cash in the form of bills and coins) in the US financial system is a little over $1.36 trillion.

2)   When you include digital money sitting in short-term accounts and long-term accounts then you’re talking about roughly $10 trillion in “money” in the financial system.

3)   In contrast, the money in the US stock market (equity shares in publicly traded companies) is over $20 trillion in size.

4)   The US bond market  (money that has been lent to corporations, municipal Governments, State Governments, and the Federal Government) is almost twice this at $38 trillion.

5)   Total Credit Market Instruments (mortgages, collateralized debt obligations, junk bonds, commercial paper and other digitally-based “money” that is based on debt) is even larger $58.7 trillion.

6)   Unregulated over the counter derivatives traded between the big banks and corporations is north of $220 trillion.

When looking over these data points, the first thing that jumps out at the viewer is that the vast bulk of “money” in the system is in the form of digital loans or credit (non-physical debt).

More…

Posted at 10:48 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Now some hacker is going to start a war in Germany.

‘Hackers’ give orders to German missile battery
Published: 07 Jul 2015 15:00 GMT+02:00

German-owned Patriot missiles stationed in Turkey were briefly taken over by hackers, according to media reports on Tuesday.

The attack took place on anti-aircraft ‘Patriot’ missiles on the Syrian border. The American-made weapons had been stationed there by the Bundeswehr (German army) to protect Nato ally Turkey.

According to the civil service magazine, the missile system carried out “unexplained” orders. It was not immediately clear when these orders were carried out and what they were.

The magazine speculates about two weak spots in the missile system which could be exploited by hackers.

One such weakness is the Sensor-Shooter-Interoperability (SSI) which exchanges real time information between the missile launcher and its control system.

The second exposed point is a computer chip which controls the guidance of the weapon.

Attackers might have gained access in two different ways, one that takes over the operating of the missile system and one that steals data from it.

The patriot missile has been in service in the US army since 1984 and was first used in operation in the first Gulf war in 1991.

In 2012 Turkey asked that its Nato partners support it by stationing Patriot missile systems there, after the civil war in Syria drew closer to its southern border.

In June 2015 Germany announced that it would replace its Patriot missiles with MEADS, an air defence system designed in cooperation with the USA and Italy.

More…

Posted at 5:51 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

The Greeks voted "no" and should be applauded for their valor! Knowingly or not, their no vote has added extra cards to their hand. They now have more options than they would have had with a yes vote. In fact, Greece still has the only option they would have had with a yes vote (cut a deal for "more aid" and austerity), plus many other which pressure the lenders. I must say, a "vote" coming from the cradle of democracy CONTRARY to what the banksters wanted is a breath of fresh air!

Now what? Greece basically can go down three very different roads. They can use their "new freedom" to either negotiate new aid and restructuring, they can stay in the Eurozone while not paying on their debt and using a new drachma or, …they can go full Iceland! Please understand this, no matter what they choose, their banking system is inedible toast and they cannot pay their debt service let alone the principal. The bottom line is "someone" will have to eat the losses. Whether it be the ECB itself, European banks or whomever, the debt will not be paid and someone, somewhere will have to "lose". Keep in mind this is happening while liquidity is already quite tight.

It is possible we could see some sort of deal where "the world is saved" and a violent short covering rally in everything ensues. Should this occur, do not be fooled because nothing can nor will be fixed. Can they buy a month or three months time with Greece? Probably but as liquidity is drying up, accidents are more likely to happen. Countering this thought process, Greece does also have an "out" should they decide to turn toward any help offered by Russia and China. If this is the choice, I believe it’s a very good bet that rioting and even a coup may be "helped" from the shadows. I won’t elaborate on this but should it appear Greece is moving away from the West, unrest of all sorts will surely be "stirred" up!

Of their options available, I personally believe they should go "whole hog Iceland". What is best for Greece for the future would be to put a moratorium on payments and outright default. They would then be forced to issue a new drachma to conduct commerce with. I also believe they should leave the Eurozone and focus trade toward the East where their new drachma would be more likely to be accepted. Greece would be forced to "start over" from ground zero, not a happy prospect but one where at least a foundation exists. The "old" world order will not stand in the long run, it may fall apart piece by piece or all at once.

The piece by piece scenario would include Portugal, then Spain, and then Italy (with France mixed in there) wanting to go down the same Greek road. We very well may see national referendums becoming the new fad. All of these countries will want some sort of relief from their debt as the numbers are clearly unsustainable. Talk of the situation being contained is laughable. So laughable, the whole system could go from "normal" to "over" in 48 hours in my opinion.

Look around the world, China is now down 25+% in just over three weeks. Europe, it’s currency and even the Union itself is in question …and the Federal Reserve needs to do something in the credibility department. What I am saying is this, can the Fed really tighten ANYTHING in the current environment? As I mentioned previously, liquidity is rapidly going away …in an over indebted system this is the most potent of poison! As I see it, a massive dose of new QE will have to be administered just to keep the doors open. Watch for this!

Meanwhile, "we" look like idiots to those we have tried to help. While the credit market is on the cusp of breakdown and full seizure, gold and silver prices got smashed again today. Funny thing though, even though there has been so much "selling", the U.S. Mint has apparently suspended sales of Silver Eagles! I will ask the question again as I have before, if there is so much "selling" of silver, why can’t the Mint source it to sell? It is their mandate! It is the law (which matters not anymore)!

Are we moving into a zone where COMEX prices will get hit further …while the mint sells nothing until August (if we even make it to August) …and then we see some sort of credit/financial/international event where force majeure is declared? For whatever reason the Mint can conjure …can’t source metal …can’t keep up with demand …or whatever, a suspension of sales does not jibe with massive panic selling of "metal". Unless of course they say "we are suspending sales because there is no demand". I am sure a statement like this could be spun as Gospel truth!

Folks, we stand on the verge of the global credit markets coming to a grinding halt. In our current world, NOTHING that we consider "normal" will transact or transpire without credit. Our lives will change literally overnight without credit. We are about to live through a massive wildfire of credit values burning to the ground, gold and silver will still be standing when the smoke clears. It is completely laughable to see gold and silver forced down when the fear of credit collapse is rising. Mother Nature doesn’t work this way, central banks wish she did! I hope you have the will to "see through it", the coordinated efforts to support paper markets and suppress gold and silver have been truly impressive. The currency of the biggest, most indebted and "brokest" issuer in the world is attracting safe haven bids. I assure you, once control is lost and we go into all out panic, even those pulling the levers will be moving against their own central banks!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome! [email protected]

Posted at 5:07 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mr. Williams shares the following with us.

- Mounting Global Instabilities in a System Increasingly Out of Control 
- May 2015 Trade Deficit Showed Minimal Deterioration; Advance-June Trade Estimate Should Rattle Second-Quarter GDP 
- Headline June Reporting on Production and Retail Sales Also Should Soften GDP Expectations
- Late-Month Jump Pushed June M3 Annual Growth to 5.2%, Up from 5.0% in May

"No. 733: May Trade Deficit, June M3, Systemic Uncertainties" 
Web-page: http://www.shadowstats.com

Posted at 10:21 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

Who is next?

CIGA HK.

clip_image001

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

CIGA HK is on a roll today.

clip_image002

Jim,

Oh, oh. I smell another handout coming.

Do you too?

CIGA Wolfgang

Dear Wolfgang,

This is a chess game being played exactly for that end point.

Respectfully,
Jim

Tsipras Dials Obama
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/07/2015 – 11:52

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras spoke to U.S. President Barack Obama by telephone on Tuesday shortly before an emergency euro zone summit and briefed him on Greece’s request for a rescue loan, a Greek government official said.

The official said Obama had voiced strong U.S. hopes for a successful outcome to the negotiations. The United States has said it wants an early solution to Greece’s debt crisis that keeps Athens in the European currency area.

More…

Jim,

Dig deep enough and you will find the answers.

The Greek debacle is due to America’s catering to the large financial institutions in the 2007 crash. They knew the government would bail them out because they were too big to fail. Therefore they took an inordinate amount of risk in the derivatives market.

Same with Greece. Greece took a cue from America’s playbook and figured they could do the same. Live high on the hog off EU borrowings and no tax receipts and fiscal austerity, then when the SHTF, let them bail you out.

It’s called Moral Hazard.

For those who haven’t heard of it, here is the definition:

Definition of ‘Moral Hazard’

Definition: Moral hazard is a situation in which one party gets involved in a risky event knowing that it is protected against the risk and the other party will incur the cost. It arises when both the parties have incomplete information about each other.

It occurs when the borrower knows that someone else will pay for the mistake he makes. This in turn gives him the incentive to act in a riskier way. This economic concept is known as moral hazard.

Example: You have not insured your house from any future damages. It implies that a loss will be completely borne by you at the time of a mishappening like fire or burglary. Hence you will show extra care and attentiveness. You will install high tech burglar alarms and hire watchmen to avoid any unforeseen event.

But if your house is insured for its full value, then if anything happens you do not really lose anything. Therefore, you have less incentive to protect against any mishappening. In this case, the insurance firm bears the losses and the problem of moral hazard arises.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Posted at 1:17 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

Bill Holter is back to discuss the impending ‘Global Margin Call’… and when it might begin. We recorded this call on Friday, July 3rd, so we weren’t privy to the outcome of the Greek referendum at the time of this call. So Sunday’s news that the PEOPLE of Greece have said a resounding NO to IMF Bankster servitude and endless austerity is most welcome news indeed. Although, from a global economic collapse perspective, from a derivatives bubble and credit default swaps and TBTF criminal international banks perspective, today’s vote may well ensure that a ‘Global Margin Call’ could commence at any moment.

Thanks for joining us – and stay tuned to SGT Report all week for much more on the events in Greece and the repercussions these events may have on all of us.