Posted at 2:13 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


Five Trump statements — good for gold?

CIGA Gijsbert

Opinion: Gold Prices Could Soar If Donald Trump Says Any One Of These Five Things
January 18, 2017

Five Trump statements

Trump is unpredictable — that much we know. But regardless of his target — a country, a company or a person — gold is one of the few investments that act as a safe haven from turmoil in the world of politics or investing.

Here are the five statements that could send gold soaring:

1. Trump declares his intention to name China a currency manipulator. ETFs of interest are iShares China Large-Cap ETF FXI, -0.46% ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 50 FXP, +1.11% and Deutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF ASHR, +0.95%

2. Trump declares his intention to abandon the so-called one-China policy.

3. Trump states an intention to declare artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea as illegal.

4. Trump makes more statements that are seen encouraging European Union (EU) member countries to leave the trade pact. ETFs of interest are iShares MSCI Germany Index EWG, +0.22% SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF FEZ, -0.23% WisdomTree Inter Hedged Equity Fund HEDJ, -0.76% Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF VGK, +0.00% and Guggenheim CurrencyShares Euro Trust FXE, +0.62%

5. Trump provides support for quickly doing a trade treaty with the United Kingdom, encouraging the U.K. to do a “hard” exit from EU. ETFs of interest are iShares MSCI UK EWU, +0.13% and Guggenheim CurrencyShares British FXB, +1.72%


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

233 years of the Dow compliments of CIGA Huggy.


Textbook crash on the major MA80-89 yearly.


Posted at 2:05 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

GATA forwarded a fabulous link yesterday to Hugo Salinas Price’s latest writing. This is a very short read and represents visually what Richard Russell said for years …”Inflate or Die”. Please read it carefully because if you do not understand it, you will not understand “why” mathematically we are about to go through financial and economic disaster.


Looking at this graph, you will notice the parabolic move began in 1971. This was possible because “debt” had previously been constrained by the amount of purported U.S. gold holdings. De linking from gold allowed literally parabolic growth in new debt issuance. The increase in reserves really started to accelerate around the year 2000 and went vertical beginning around 2008. These were both years when the economy (and markets) began to seriously falter. It has been my contention that these years also coincided with “debt saturation” milestones where Kirk called down to the engine room demanding “more power”.

Before moving on, let’s look at how Ponzi schemes work and how they die. At first, there are few investors so adding even one more sucker to the pile is meaningful as his capital can be parceled out into meaningful “dividends”. But as the scheme grows, say to 100 unsuspecting souls, one more new investor only equals 1% “payouts” to the group. Then as the pool gets even larger at 1,000 or more, one new mark is almost meaningless. As the returns shrink, people begin to look elsewhere and bail out spelling the beginning of the end. If you look at the above chart again, it pretty much mirrors the birth, growth, maturity and coming death of all Ponzi schemes…doesn’t it?

Looking at the chart from a real world vantage point, the last two plus years has been more than a minor hiccup …the parabolic “trend” has clearly changed and reversed. Mr. Salinas Price wrote that Mr. Trump has communicated desires to eliminate the trade deficit which will expedite the decline of paper reserves. I would remind you what Mr. Trump said yesterday, “the dollar is too high”! This is further evidence of a move away from globalism toward nationalism. A “lower” dollar will help our exports while curbing imports. This will truly not be good for an over levered world that relies on product sales to the U.S. to pay their debt service. Another way to look at it is through the eyes of “Smoot-Hawley” glasses, we already know what happens to trade when tariffs are erected, trade volumes implode.

For the last few years, even with the U.S. trying and struggling to “play the game”, the debt structure had already begun to slow and roll over. Now with Mr. Trump at the helm, it looks like the U.S. will no longer play the game. Simply put, “game over” will be rapidly seen and understood as inevitable where no amount of hope will trump “policy” nor Mother Nature! The credit contraction is here and now, if you know this and understand what it means, then you know where it will all end.

As mentioned at the beginning, Richard Russell’s most famous quote was “inflate or die”. With regard to the above chart, Sir Richard was saying “inflation” (growth of debt) must either continually go up AND at an increasing rate …or it rolls over and dies. This is exactly why for the last few months I have harped on “credit” and why it is so important. Credit conditions all over the world have been tightening. The greatest fear of the Federal Reserve has always been a credit contraction that could not be reversed …their greatest fear has arrived and in spades! Please understand that “credit” affects EVERYTHING. Production, consumption and the “ability” to consume, and importantly “distribution”. Without credit, the economic, nor financial world will turn …which of course will affect the “social world” as stomachs begin to growl in hunger.

You see, unlike past “reflations”, there is now little to no unencumbered collateral left (even including sovereign balance sheets) anywhere in the world. The amount of existing debt (Ponzi clients) is so large, new additional debt (new Ponzi clients) has little to no effect on the entire pool. In other words, we have reached and past the point of “debt saturation” where the ability to add meaningful debt does not exist. The availability to obtain new credit is winding down. Assets are now in the process of being sold to pay existing debt down, very similar to Ponzi clients asking for their money back. Mr. Trump’s proposed policies of weakening the dollar and balancing the trade deficit will only speed the process …into complete and utter chaos. The “utter chaos” part is easily forecast because of debt levels compared to current production, and financial derivatives are often 10 times or many more the underlying assets themselves. “Orderly” will not be used to describe the coming liquidation process!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

Comments welcome,

Posted at 1:58 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The man won the election but MSM ignores that. MSM plans to undermine the man at every opportunity. This looks like four, maybe 8 years of this years of this. Get over it you liberal wakes. Donald Trump is the MFWIC.

Newsletter Today: Trump, the Unpopular Populist. Pot Shops and the High Class.
January 18, 2017

Since winning the election, Donald Trump hasn’t extended many olive branches to those who didn’t vote for him. More often than not, he’s set those branches on fire. That combative approach along with his response to Russia has made him the only president-elect among the last seven to see his popularity drop during his transition to the White House, according to three new polls (which Trump says are “rigged”). Only 4 in 10 Americans approve of Trump, mostly along partisan lines. One bright spot for Trump: About 6 in 10 Americans have confidence in his ability to deal with the economy and jobs.

– Trump is rattling the United States’ European allies with his comments about NATO, the EU and more.

– Trump’s health secretary pick fought to limit coverage in one of America’s neediest states.

– Michael Hiltzik breaks down what we know about Trump’s and Sen. Rand Paul’s Obamacare replacement plans.

– Many members of California’s delegation won’t attend the inauguration, but columnist Steve Lopez is heading out to “bear witness on behalf of my native state and as a member of the scabrous fraternity of ink-stained wretches.”


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The choice Trump makes for the vacancy at the Supreme Court will show who the president elect really is. One would hope it is not Judge Blankfein or his double.
Andrew Napolitano Meets Donald Trump for Second Time On Supreme Court Nomination
January 17, 2017

President-elect Donald Trump met Tuesday, for the second time since the November presidential election, with Fox News Senior Judicial Analyst and Ron Paul Institute Advisory Board Member Andrew Napolitano. As with their previous hour-long meeting in December, Napolitano says in an interview with host Stuart Varney at Fox Business that a focus of the new meeting was Trump choosing a nominee to fill the vacant Supreme Court position.

In particular, Napolitano says in the interview that Trump and Napolitano discussed, in relation to filling the vacancy, “judicial attitudes, judicial temperament, ideology, and candidates for the court.”


Bill Holter’s Commentary

It’s OK, just like the crazy aunt in the basement…everyone already knows.

Is The U.S. Government Insolvent? Sorry, But Its Accountant Can’t Tell You
January 12, 2017

Fiscal Policy: Question: What do you call it when a major organization’s financial statements are so deceptive and badly kept that even its auditor refuses to render an opinion? Answer: The federal government.

That’s right, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), the federal government’s accountant, refused to hand down an opinion of the federal government’s financial statements for 2016 “due to deficiencies that have plagued prior financial statements — persistent financial management problems at the Department of Defense (DOD), the government’s inability to account for and reconcile certain transactions, an ineffective process for preparing the consolidated financial statements, and significant uncertainties.”

No question that, just like Enron, if this happened in the private sector, the executives in charge would either be fired or tried for fraud, and the shareholders would suffer major losses. But U.S. taxpayers pay little attention to the problem since they don’t know how bad it really is. And the sad thing is, no one does.


Posted at 1:21 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Bill Holter, of sits down with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable to discuss why owning physical precious metals is paramount not just for investors, but citizens as a whole. Mr. Holter conveys why Banks, the world of academia, and Media cast doubt on ownership of physical precious metals as he provides the distinction between money and currency. We will address why the word money is not and cannot be printed on a Federal Reserve Note. In addition, Bill will provide investors the choice of precious metals he prefers and best storage options for investors. Finally, we will address what actions you the investor need to take!



Posted at 1:17 PM (CST) by & filed under

Jim and Bill,

The latest is called “End of 2017 Gold Up & Dollar Down-Nomi Prins.” Best-selling author Nomi Prins says two of the big wild cards are Donald Trump and Europe. Prins explains, “The biggest wild card is a combination. Trump is a wild card, but so is Europe. Right now, the political lens goes over to Europe. It’s caught between its old and potentially new structure and potential new political leadership. I think that is a major wild card now. That snakes through Russia, and that snakes through Eurasia relationships, and that relates back to Trump. The wild card is the linkages among those things.”

Prins, who is a former top Wall Street banker, also thinks it’s hard to define the bad guys and the good guys. Prins contends, “From an economic standpoint, everyone has side deals. So, there is no positive or negative economy. . . . All countries do good things, and all countries do bad things. What is happening right now is all of the alignments between countries have been changing. . . . The reality is there are going to be a lot of things renegotiated, and it’s not just Trump and the U.S. doing the renegotiating. All the other countries are negotiating as well. If there is enough antagonism with how Trump is going to renegotiate those agreements . . . that could limit trade into the U.S., and that could limit our bargaining power. . . . That is all in flux this year.”

Prins correctly predicted no financial crash for 2016. Prins’ upcoming book is titled “Artisans of Money.” It is all about central bank money creation. What does Prins say about this year? Prins predicts, “In 2016, I pegged the non-crash. . . . Central bankers were finding new ways to extend their money creation policies. That is what kept the markets up. There was a separate bid on the markets after Trump was elected. It was on the expectation that he would be good for growth, that he would be good for infrastructure and that he would create jobs. I do think there is a little juice in the central banks. I keep thinking there shouldn’t be, but they keep surprising all of us with their ability to boost the markets. They have artificially stimulated so many different asset bubbles, whether it’s debt, which is epic, or stock markets, many of which are at historic highs. If we have a crash, it will be in the second half of 2017. The promises, the rate hikes, the dollar being high could collapse into the realities of the stability and this artificialness. I am not sure about a crash this year, but if we see a big decline, it will be in the last quarter.”

On the U.S. dollar, Prins says, “I think with the expectation of things going well, the dollar will be keeping a bit of a bid. It will be within a range but staying fairly up. I think the dollar will turn around and weaken in the second half of the year. . . .That’s why, in the last half of the year, gold will catch more of a bid.” (Meaning prices for gold will rise according to Prins.)

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with two time best-selling author and former top Wall Street banker Nomi Prins of Here’s the link: Thank you for linking to or embedding this post.


Posted at 6:13 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


You have to love how serious looking the people look packing all that junk fiat money around. Dollars are headed the same way, anyone that wants the Presidency now is self-destructive, unfortunately it means whomever that is really does not understand, or believes himself to be a financial Hercules. I truly wish he was.




Am I the only one who fears the excessive money printing will certainly lead to a Weimar Germany scenario?


I’ll have a Coke, please. (Weimar Germany)


In Venezuela, they don’t count currency anymore….they weigh it!

$5 trillion, on top of the already $20 trillion, plus untold trillions in the usual budget deficits and interest payments!

Now add Social Security and Medicare obligations?



CIGA Wolfgang Rech

McCain Proposes Massive $5 Trillion, 5-Year Defense Budget; Blames “Flawed Obama Defense Strategy”
January 17, 2017

Just weeks after it was revealed that the Pentagon attempted to bury a study, that it itself had actually commissioned, which revealed staggering financial waste on Department of Defense programs, John McCain has proposed a new military budget that would exceed Obama’s proposed spending by $430 billion over 5 years and total over $5 trillion, in aggregate. In a 33-page white paper called “Restoring American Power”, McCain described his proposals as just a start toward repairing the “damage that has been done to our military over the past eight years” under the Obama administration.

“President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to ‘fully eliminate the defense sequester’ and ‘submit a new budget to rebuild our military.’ This cannot happen soon enough.”

“The damage that has been done to our military over the past eight years will not be reversed in one year. Just stemming the bleeding caused by recent budget cuts will take most of the next five years, to say nothing of the sustained increases in funding required thereafter.”


Posted at 12:47 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Does this sound like a gold adversary or a reflationist? In our opinion we will find out very soon. It seems the previous “official” headwinds may become a tailwind without notice. Mother Nature has a funny way of showing up when needed, we will see man cannot “legislate” against her no matter how hard or underhandedly he may try.

Dollar Tumbles After Trump Calls Currency “Too Strong”, Slams Border-Adjustment Tax
January 17, 2017

One can probably put the time of death of the Trumpflation rally as 11:47pm on Monday night. That’s when the WSJ published the latest excerpt of its Friday interview with Donald Trump, in which the president-elect himself said the dollar was already “too strong”and blamed this is in part due to China holding down its currency and added that “our companies can’t compete with them now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us.”

The yuan is “dropping like a rock,” Mr. Trump said, dismissing recent Chinese actions to support it as done simply “because they don’t want us to get angry.”

As the WSJ added, Trump broke with a recent tradition of presidents refraining from comments on the dollar’s level, and more to the market’s surprise, he is now talking the dollar down, not up. The USD is up 4% against a broad basket of currencies since he was elected, and roughly 25% since mid-2014. The dollar-negative sentiment was echoed several hours later by Trump advisor Anthony Scaramucci, who told a Davos audience that “we must be careful of a rising dollar.”

In short: the dollar’s rise may be over for the time being.


Posted at 2:01 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Sounds perfectly correct to me

John Hathaway – China Is Preparing To Radically Reprice Gold Higher As Demise Of The COMEX & LBMA Accelerates
January 12, 2017

January 13 (King World News) – Gold rose 8.5% for the year while gold-mining stocks (XAU – Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index stocks) rose 75%. On an annual basis, results were highly satisfactory. However, there was considerable drama beneath the surface that left precious metals investors in a state of anxiety by year-end. Precious metals and mining shares rose sharply through August, and then spent the rest of the year giving back much of the first-half gains. The second half downtrend accelerated into early December, following the unexpected victory by Trump and a hawkish statement after the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting…


Talk Radio Hosts And Bloggers May Benefit From White House Press Move
January 16, 2017

Talk radio hosts and bloggers could be given greater access to official White House press briefings once the Trump administration takes office, under a highly irregular proposal being floated that may also remove briefings from the West Wing.

Trump’s pick for White House press secretary, Sean Spicer, said on Sunday that due to “off the chart” interest in the new administration, the president-elect was considering moving briefings from the James S Brady press briefing room, which has been used by presidents to address the media since 1970, to a venue with a greater capacity.

A report published by Esquire magazine on Saturday indicated the venue could be inside the Old Executive Office Building, just west of the White House.