Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Mr. Williams shares with us.
- Both Nominal and Real First-Quarter 2015 GDP Face Contraction, But Headline Downturn May Await the First Revision
- Consensus Forecasts Never Catch Economic Downturns, Yet the Consensus Outlook Is Weighted into the Initial GDP Estimate
- Real Durable Goods Orders Confirmed Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; Signaling a Second-Quarter GDP Decline and Formal Recession
- Household Income Declined Sharply in March
- Existing-Home Sales Fell at Annualized 7.2% (-7.2%) Pace in First-Quarter 2015
- Unstable Plunge in New-Home Sales Data Amidst Continued and Protracted Stagnation
“No. 714: March Durable Goods Orders, Median Household Income, New- and Existing-HomeSales ”
WTF Chart Of The Day – Chinese New Share Accounts Edition!!!!
Tyler Durden on 04/23/2015 23:20 -0400
We’ve all seen Chinese stocks explode in the last year; we’ve all seen margin lending soar to fund this exuberance; we’ve all read the dominant buyer in this trading frenzy is high-school-educated housewives; and we’ve all seen the analogs to the 2000 dotcom bubble. But, we guarentee you have never – ever – seen anything like this…
The number of new A-Share accounts opened just last week was a mind-boggling 3.25 million!!! That is double the number opened in the peak euphoria stage of the 2007 bubble…
This will not end well…
and end it will – one way or another, tonight’s rumor about a possible transaction tax (later denied by the CSRC) seems to have spooked more than a few…
An Austrian Province Just Requested A State Bailout
Tyler Durden on 04/24/2015 15:15 -0400
One month ago we wrote about the ripple effects of the “mini-Greece going off in the heartland of Europe”, referring of course to the Viennese black swan, the bailed-in implosion of the Austrian Heta bad bank which nobody had anticipated because the numbers were so thoroughly cooked, nobody had even the faintest clue just how bad the truth was. We said that “while the acute pain came and went for Heta bondholders who have seen a nearly 50% loss in just a few short months, the bigger and far more diffuse pain is only just starting…. The first casualty: the beautifully picturesque southern Austrian province of Carinthia.”
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
More neutral than otherwise. This shows that holding gold can be very helpful when the chips are down financially.
Venezuela carries out $1 bln gold swap with Citibank –media
CARACAS, APRIL 24
(Reuters) – Venezuela’s central bank has converted part of its gold reserves into at least $1 billion in cash through a swap with Citibank, local media reported on Friday.
The deal will make more foreign currency available to President Nicolas Maduro’s socialist government as the OPEC nation struggles with soaring consumer prices, chronic shortages and a shrinking economy worsened by low oil prices.
Daily newspaper El Nacional said the deal was for $1 billion and was struck with Citibank, which is owned by Citigroup Co .
Former central bank director Jose Guerra and economist Asdrubal Oliveros of Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica said in separate interviews that the operation had been carried out.
The central bank did not immediately respond to a request for comments. A Citibank official said the company had no comment.
A source at the central bank told Reuters last month it would provide 1.4 million troy ounces of gold in exchange for cash. Venezuela would have to pay interest on the funds, but the bank would most likely be able to maintain the gold as part of its foreign currency reserves.
Most of Venezuela’s foreign reserves are held in gold after late socialist leader Hugo Chavez began moving central bank assets away from the dollar in the wake of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. (Reporting by Corina Pons and Brian Ellsworth; Writing by Alexandra Ulmer; Editing by Paul Simao)
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Business is booming. Daddy Warbucks does the dance of joy!
The $18bn arms race helping to fuel Middle East conflict
Security experts express fears for region’s stability amid record weapons sales from west and Russia’s missile deal with Iran
Thursday 23 April 2015 05.23 EDT Last modified on Thursday 23 April 2015 19.00 EDT
The Middle East is plunging deeper into an arms race, with an estimated $18bn expected to be spent on weapons this year, a development that experts warn is fuelling serious tension and conflict in the region.
Given the unprecedented levels of weapons sales by the west (including the US, Canada and the UK) to the mainly Sunni Gulf states, Vladimir Putin’s decision last week to allow the controversial delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran – voluntarily blocked by Russia since 2010 – seems likely to further accelerate the proliferation.
That will see agreed arms sales to the top five purchasers in the region – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Egypt and Iraq – surge this year to more than $18bn, up from $12bn last year. Among the systems being purchased are jet fighters, missiles, armoured vehicles, drones and helicopters.
The Russian declaration came only two days before Iraq’s prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, disclosed he was seeking arms worth billions of dollars from Washington – with payment deferred – for the battle against Islamic State (Isis).
Last week France’s foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, disclosed progress in talks to sell Rafale fighter jets to the UAE, one of the Middle East’s biggest and most aggressive arms buyers.
With conflicts raging in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, and with Egypt also battling Islamist extremists in the Sinai, the signs that Russia is preparing to increase its own arms sales – and to the Gulf states’ biggest rival, Iran – are raising fears that tensions will be stoked further still.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Peace in our time?
Israel, Gaza Exchange Rocket Fire for First Time Since Year Started
05:16 24.04.2015(updated 06:14 24.04.2015)
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Israel Defense Forces shot retaliatory rocket at northern Gaza after a shell was reportedly fired from there at Israeli Sderot area late on Thursday, for the first time since the beginning of the year, the local media said.
The previous rocket was shot at Israel from Gaza territory on December 19, 2014, breaching the August Israeli-Palestinian truce for the second time.
An open-ended ceasefire was reached by the sides in August 2014 after a 50-day conflict. In July 2014, Israel launched Operation Protective Edge against the Hamas forces that resulted in deaths of over 2,000 Palestinians and 71 Israelis, according to the UN estimates.
All Not Quiet on the Eastern Front—-Even Polish General Rebukes Ukrainian Ultra-Nationalism
by Mike Mish Shedlock • April 23, 2015
Judging from Western media, one might think nothing much is happening in Ukraine. Facts are wildly different as we will discuss momentarily.
Rush to Judgment
As a prelude to current events, please recall the hype when Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was gunned down in March. Western media rushed to judgment. Heck, even friends who should know better rushed to judgment.
Every Western news agency, even some I would have expected better of, was quick to point the finger at Putin.
I commented on Boris Nemtsov on March 6 in Rush to Judgment and Extremely Inaccurate Reporting.
With that backdrop, let’s turn our attention to some recent events.
Death Squads Kill Four News Reporters in Ukraine
On April 17, Death Squads Killed Four News Reporters in Ukraine in 24 Hours.
Over the last two days in Ukraine, there have been four prominent killings. On Wednesday, it was former member of Parliament from the Regions Party, leader of the All-Ukrainian Officers’ Union, and one of the founders of the AntiMaidan, Oleg Kalashnikov. On Thursday, it was journalist Sergei Sukhobok, one of the founders of the ProUA and Obkom websites. That same day, former editor of the major newspaper Segodnia, well-known journalist Oles’ Buzina, was shot dead in his own backyard; and the body of editor-in-chief of the Netishinskii Herald, Olga Moroz, was found dead in her apartment, bearing signs of a violent death.
Three journalists in one day. Four political figures in 24 hours. Where is the human rights crowd? Where is the international community? Where are the declarations of Merkel, Obama, Cameron, etc.? Where is the wave of indignation from the Western press? Where?
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Good thinking or poor navigation?
Iranian naval convoy bound for Yemen turns back toward home
DEBKAfile Special Report April 23, 2015, 8:58 PM (IDT)
Senior US defense officials reported Thursday, April 23, that the Iranian convoy suspected of carrying weapons for Houth rebels in Yemen appeared to have turned around and was heading north toward Iran. Other Pentagon sources were more cautious: “This isn’t over yet,” they said, in reference to a potential showdown shaping up from Monday, when the USS Roosevelt carrier and USS Normandy missile cruiser reached the Arabian Sea. The Iranian convoy was tracked by the US, Saudi, Egyptian and UAE fleets, any one of which may have intercepted an Iranian vessels trying to unload arms for the rebels.
debkafile reported earlier that, just hours after halting military operations in Yemen, Saudi Arabia Wednesday, April 22 resumed its air strikes, bombing pro-Iranian Houthi rebel positions southwest of Taiz, after they seized a brigade base from forces loyal to fugitive President Abdu-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. debkafile’s military sources report that the Saudi-led coalition went back on a promise published Tuesday to shift its focus from military action to peace talks after Houthi rebels opted out of the ceasefire the Obama administration was trying to broker between Riyadh and Tehran. Tehran further refrained from ordering its warships to turn around and told them to stay on course for the Gulf of Aden opposite Yemen.
debkafile reported earlier Wednesday:
Wide overnight predictions of a Yemen ceasefire coming out of US mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia were unfulfilled by Wednesday, April 22. All that happened was Saudi Arabia’s termination of its air strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels – but not its sea and air blockade of the country. The rebels made it clear that for them, the war goes on. From Washington, US President Barack Obama warned Tehran against delivering weapons to Yemen that could be used to threaten shipping traffic in the region. Speaking in a televised interview on MSNBC’s “Hardball,” the president said: “What we’ve said to them is that ‘if there are weapons delivered to factions within Yemen that could threaten navigation, that’s a problem.’”
He was referring to the Iranian buildup of nine vessels, some carrying weapons, and warning that US warships were deploying to defend international navigation in the Gulf of Aden and the strategic Strait of Bab el-Mandeb off the shores of Yemen.
debkafile reported earlier::
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdolllahian said Tuesday night, April 21, that Tehran is optimistic that ‘in the coming hours we shall see a halt to military attacks in Yemen.”
He did not say whether the Saudi Arabia had accepted a ceasefire after three weeks of air strikes, or its targets, the Houthi rebels and their Yemeni army allies – or both. Their acceptance would terminate the Yemen civil war.