Posted at 5:22 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter, Martin Armstrong.

Dear CIGAs,

For years Martin Armstrong has denied market manipulation had any effect on markets. He has taken this stance while touting the ability of his “cycles and charts” to forecast future prices of various markets. In his latest writing he says “Throughout history, there has NEVER been a market manipulated TO ALTER its long-term trend – PERIOD.” Martin Armstrong, Oct 30, 2015

If you read the article he points out Bretton Woods would never have failed nor would the Swiss peg have broken. I would point out, the Bretton Woods agreement lasted in its original form for 27 years until it failed. During the 1960′s, the London Gold pool was formed to defend the dollar peg at $35 per ounce. The “pool” is officially admitted fact, it is admitted effort at “manipulation”. Maybe Mr. Armstrong does not believe 27 years is “the long term”? He went on to say “why invest in something that won’t be allowed to rise”? In the case of Bretton Woods it is obvious, the gold price was being artificially suppressed and would one day break free …which it did from $35 to over $800 in less than nine years! Wouldn’t this qualify as a reason to invest in something that would “never be allowed to go up”? Were they not trying to price gold against Mother Nature’s upward pull? I would ask, other than “severity” (the amount of zeros), is there anything different today than back in the late 1960′s?

It is already well documented markets far and wide are manipulated against the true trend of Mother Nature. The stock market in Japan for example has been supported by the Bank of Japan buying up over 50% of equity ETF’s. To this point it has worked, would Martin Armstrong counsel the purchase of Japanese equities because this “really isn’t” an instance of manipulation? Would he counsel not selling something which will never be allowed to go down? Actually, why is there such a thing as a “plunge protection team” in the U.S. in the first place? Or does this not exist either?

Another Armstrong fallacy and I quote “The amount of capital that will trade against anything that moves against its long-term trend is endless. If you really believe all this nonsense, then you better trade a different market. Why buy something that is manipulated and can never rally? It makes no sense.” Do you see the flaw here? He speaks about “endless capital”, what entity(s) theoretically have endless capital? Why the central banks of course …and who’s capital is the “most endless”? Yes, THE FED! Just one last question, “who” has the motive to keep the gold price thermometer from rising? Could it be the central bank who issues the reserve currency and who’s main competitor has ALWAYS been gold!? Yes, again THE FEDERAL RESERVE!

It is not rocket science and certainly not even speculation or conspiracy “theory” anymore, it is well documented that markets are in fact manipulated and done so in the directions central banks and sovereign treasuries wish. This is now FACT by admission of various central bankers, various sovereign treasury officials …and various admissions of guilt from financial firms who were doing the dirty work!

So Mr. Armstrong, please do not insult the intelligence of those of us who can still add 2+2 together. Tell “these people” there is no manipulation, they will believe this …or anything else for that matter. To run around and talk about the complete collapse of the Western financial world in one breath and scare people into selling their only crash insurance for protection in the next breath is dastardly indeed! I believe your opining the collapse of the Western fiat system is 100% correct, this however cannot happen without capital flooding and finding it’s way into a safe monetary haven. What “is” the safe haven?

A few years back while opining of a market/financial collapse from behind bars, Mr. Armstrong was adamant that gold would move to $5,000+ per ounce or higher as a result. He called them cause and effect at the time and gold would be the safe haven from a dysfunctional system, what has changed? This is a very important question in my opinion… what has changed and why did this change immediately take place after they sprung the prison doors open? Did sunlight give him a change of “heart” (and logic) or was the federal “company mantra” part of the key to his release? According to Martin Armstrong (and Ben Bernanke), gold is not money! As George Straight has sung many times before …I got some oceanfront property in Arizona …and if you buy that I’ll throw the Golden Gate in free! Enough said.

Standing Watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome, [email protected]

Posted at 4:13 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Three assistants.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Want a breath of fresh air?

WARNING: Prepare For The Total Destruction Of The Financial System And $100,000 – $100 Million Gold
November 1, 2015

Today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events warned King World News that people need to prepare for the total destruction of the current financial system and $100,000 – $100 million gold.

By Egon von Greyerz, Co-Founder of Matterhorn Asset Management & GoldSwitzerland

November 2 – (King World News) – How long can a bull fed on paper money survive?

It seems that a bull fed on paper money has eternal life. Whatever the news is, worldwide stock markets react positively. It takes a long time to kill off a secular bull even if it has the wrong diet.

Central banks have no policy

This past week stock markets surged on the news that more QE is likely from the ECB and also from China. But the news from the Fed was again another U-turn, with potential rate hike in December. As I have stated many times, neither the Fed nor any other central bank has got a clue what is happening. They continue to react to events and will change their mind on a daily basis. There is absolutely no central bank policy whatsoever…

Egon von Greyerz continues:  The Fed primarily follows the stock market. If the market is up they think that they can increase rates and if it is down, they will use whatever weapon they have available to stop the fall. So will they really increase rates in December? Well that depends on if the bull will get indigestion before then due to a stomach full of paper. In my view it is probable that the bull will die of exhaustion due to an unsuitable diet.



Apocalypse now: has the next giant financial crash already begun?
Paul Mason
Sunday 1 November 2015 15.00 EST

The 1st of October came and went without financial armageddon. Veteran forecaster Martin Armstrong, who accurately predicted the 1987 crash, used the same model to suggest that 1 October would be a major turning point for global markets. Some investors even put bets on it. But the passing of the predicted global crash is only good news to a point. Many indicators in global finance are pointing downwards – and some even think the crash has begun.

Let’s assemble the evidence. First, the unsustainable debt. Since 2007, the pile of debt in the world has grown by $57tn (£37tn). That’s a compound annual growth rate of 5.3%, significantly beating GDP. Debts have doubled in the so-called emerging markets, while rising by just over a third in the developed world.

John Maynard Keynes once wrote that money is a “link to the future” – meaning that what we do with money is a signal of what we think is going to happen in the future. What we’ve done with credit since the global crisis of 2008 is expand it faster than the economy – which can only be done rationally if we think the future is going to be much richer than the present.

This summer, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) pointed out that certain major economies were seeing a sharp rise in debt-to-GDP ratios, which were well outside historic norms. In China, the rest of Asia and Brazil, private-sector borrowing has risen so quickly that BIS’s dashboard of risk is flashing red. In two thirds of all cases, red warnings such as this are followed by a major banking crisis within three years.

The underlying cause of this debt glut is the $12tn of free or cheap money created by central banks since 2009, combined with near-zero interest rates. When the real price of money is close to zero, people borrow and worry about the consequences later.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

According to US MSM, the heat flash was coincident with the aircraft’s impact with Earth. Here we go in the politics of the blame game.

Heat flash over Sinai prior to Russian plane crash reportedly detected by US satellite
Published time: 3 Nov, 2015 07:16Edited time: 3 Nov, 2015 15:56

Just before a Russian passenger airliner crashed in Egypt’s Sinai on Saturday, a US infrared satellite reportedly detected a heat flash in the same vicinity, indicating that an explosion may have happened on board.

The US intelligence community believes that a fuel tank or bomb may have been the source of the heat signature, NBC News reported. The same satellite ruled out a missile attack, as it didn’t detect a heat trail that a rocket engine would have produced, the channel’s source said.

The heat flash may not be related to the crash since the Sinai Peninsula is a volatile place with regular military activity, a Pentagon official told ABC News.

As the investigation into the deadliest air incident in Russia’s history, which has claimed 224 lives, mostly Russian, is under way, officials say it’s too early to pronounce the cause of the crash – and that no version has been ruled out.

Preliminary data indicates that the Airbus 321 en route from Sharm-el-Sheikh to St Petersburg sustained heavy damage as it was traveling at an altitude of over 10,000 meters and the crew had no control over its descent. Rescue workers have found 12 large pieces of the plane’s hull at the crash site, indicating how badly it was damaged in the incident, Russian officials reported.

“There is much work to be done to study the debris of the aircraft and the data of the flight recorders,” the head of the Russian aviation authority, Aleksand Neradko, told Rossiya 24 news channel. “The debris is indeed spread over a large area indicating that the plane fell apart at a high altitude. But speculating on the cause is premature.”



Migrant crisis pushing Germany towards ‘anarchy and civil war’
Published time: 3 Nov, 2015 15:10Edited time: 3 Nov, 2015 18:01

Germany now is somewhere at the edge of anarchy and sliding towards civil war, or to become a “banana republic without any government,” says Hansjoerg Mueller of the Alternative for Germany party.

Bavarian official Peter Dreier called German Chancellor Angela Merkel to tell her personally that if Germany welcomes a million refugees, his town of Landshut will only take in around 1,800. Any extra will be put on buses and sent to her Chancellery in Berlin.

RT: He says he’s going to send them to Berlin, but does he have the power?

Hansjoerg Mueller: The person who wants to send them to Berlin is Mr. Dreier. He is the district head of Landshut, a town close to Munich. Usually he does not have the power, but we are not living in usual times. What we are now looking at is more and more Germany sliding towards anarchy. In this situation I think less and less is determined by law, more and more is determined by who acts. And the person who acts in fact has the power. So if he sends … refugees to Berlin, he sends them!

RT: Will threats like this one be able to affect Merkel’s policy?

HM: I hope so, because Germany now is somewhere at the edge of anarchy and sliding towards civil war, or to become a banana republic without any government. I hope that this threat will have some effect, but knowing the psychological things that Merkel does all these days – I don’t believe in it, unfortunately.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

You want them, you can have them all. If we cannot take you out we will breed you out.

Libya warns it could flood Europe with migrants if EU does not recognise new self-declared government
Breakaway government in Tripoli issues veiled threat in response to West’s refusal to accept their legitimacy
By Colin Freeman, Chief Foreign Correspondent in Tripoli
7:25PM GMT 02 Nov 2015

Libya has issued a veiled threat to send “hundreds of thousands” of extra migrants to Europe if Brussels does not give official recognition to its self-declared government.

Officials say they could hire boats to send large numbers of African migrants across the Mediterranean, massively adding to the numbers already reaching Europe’s borders.

The warning was made by a spokesman for the National Salvation Government of Libya’s General National Congress in an interview with The Telegraph in the Libyan capital, Tripoli.

The Congress took control of Tripoli last year after fighting against forces loyal to the internationally- recognised House of Representatives government, and is not recognised by the European Union as Libya’s legitimate government. A fortnight ago, both factions also rejected the terms of a United Nations-brokered peace deal.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

You thought they would like it?

Beijing reacts harshly and steps up threats in South China Sea dispute

China reacted more harshly than expected to the passage last week of the warship USS Lassen that skirted within 12 miles of one of Beijing’s newly-created and increasingly militarized South China Sea islands.

Chinese spokesmen issued sharp and threatening statements in response to the ship passage, unlike statement expressing less heated “serious concerns” of the impending passage of a ship through the sea in a US show of force designed to bolster regional allies and undermine Beijing’s questionable claim to most of the waters as its maritime domain.

The harshest statements came Oct. 29 when Adm. Wu Shengli, commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, warned US Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson in a teleconference of dire consequences from the Navy warship conducting a freedom of navigation operation three days earlier.


Posted at 5:21 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is the Great Leveling before the Great Reset.

American Middle Class Is On The Endangered Species List
October 23, 2015

American Middle Class Is On The Endangered Species List

Goodbye Middle Class: Guest Column by Michael Snyder

51 Percent of Americans Make Less than $30,000 per year

October 22, 2015 “Information Clearing House” –  “End Of The American Dream” – We just got more evidence that the middle class in America is dying.  According to brand new numbers that were just released by the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all workers in the United States make less than $30,000 a year.  Let that number sink in for a moment.  You can’t support a middle class family in America today on just $2,500 a month – especially after taxes are taken out.  And yet more than half of all workers in this country make less than that each month.  In order to have a thriving middle class, you have got to have an economy that produces lots of middle class jobs, and that simply is not happening in America today.

You can find the report that the Social Security Administration just released right here:  .  The following are some of the numbers that really stood out for me:

38 percent of all American workers made less than $20,000 last year.

51 percent of all American workers made less than $30,000 last year.

62 percent of all American workers made less than $40,000 last year.

71 percent of all American workers made less than $50,000 last year.

That first number is truly staggering.  The federal poverty level for a family of five is $28,410, and yet almost 40 percent of all American workers do not even bring in $20,000 a year.

If you worked a full-time job at $10 an hour all year long with two weeks off, you would make approximately $20,000.  This should tell you something about the quality of the jobs that our economy is producing at this point.

And of course the numbers above are only for those that are actually working.  As I discussed just recently, there are 7.9 million working age Americans that are “officially unemployed” right now and another 94.7 million working age Americans that are considered to be “not in the labor force”.  When you add those two numbers together, you get a grand total of 102.6 million working age Americans that do not have a job right now.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here comes the Saudi-Russian alliance
Simon Henderson, The Washington Institute For Near East Policy
Jun. 18, 2015, 11:01 AM

Prince Muhammad’s visit to Russia will increase speculation that Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the United States is changing.

On June 17, Saudi deputy crown prince and defense minister Muhammad bin Salman (a.k.a. MbS) arrived in Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin. The visit, which was kept secret until a few hours before he left the kingdom, follows a series of recent communications between Putin and the prince’s father, King Salman.

In April, the two spoke by telephone, and on May 27, a Russian special envoy met with the king the day before the new Saudi ambassador presented his credentials in Moscow. Speaking this week, the Saudi envoy spoke of the “deeply rooted historical ties and the permanent evolution” of the relationship between the two countries.

In reality, bilateral relations have been awkward if not antagonistic. King Salman’s father, King Abdulaziz, loathed “godless communists” and broke diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union in 1938. It was not until 1992 — after the Red Army’s defeat in Afghanistan at the hands of Saudi-backed mujahedin fighters and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union — that ties with Moscow were reestablished.

Given MbS’s growing prominence at home and his obvious closeness to his father — who seems to use him as a special envoy in addition to his other responsibilities — the possibility of significant upgrades to the Saudi-Russian relationship seems likely. Under King Abdullah, who died in January, ties were vexed by Moscow’s support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan visited Russia at least twice but failed to change Putin’s mind about backing Damascus.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Somebody in Washington really wants war with China and Russia.

US Navy Sets Timetable for Regular ‘Provocations’ in South China Sea
00:53 03.11.2015(updated 01:01 03.11.2015)

A week after Washington sent a warship near artificial islands in the South China Sea, an American defense official said the US Navy plans to continue to conduct patrols in the disputed waters.

Last week, the USS Lassen, a missile destroyer, sailed within 12 nautical miles of artificial islands in the South China Sea in a direct challenge to China’s territorial claims.

A US defense official on Monday told Reuters that the Navy will conduct similar patrols in the region “about twice a quarter or a little more than that.”

“That’s the right amount to make it regular but not a constant poke in the eye. It meets the intent to regularly exercise our rights under international law and remind the Chinese and others about our view.”

Washington does not recognize China’s claims to almost all of the South China Sea, which is home to major shipping routes. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims.

The United States said last week’s patrol near the Chinese islands was a freedom-of-navigation mission conducted in accordance with international law.


Posted at 8:31 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Obama to Send Special Operations Forces to Syria to Help Fight ISIS

WASHINGTON — President Obama will deploy a small number of American Special Operations forces to Kurdish-controlled territory in northern Syria, a United States official said.

The White House is expected to make the announcement on Friday, the official said.

The team will advise and assist opposition forces who are fighting the Islamic State in Syria, providing smoother and quicker access to equipment and logistical help, the official said.

While administration officials plan to characterize the deployment as an enhancement of current strategy, it is actually a huge shift for a president who has said repeatedly that he will not put American combat boots on the ground in Syria.

The decision adds a new level of risk to the Syrian enterprise, as the presence of American forces, even if they are in Kurdish territory, could bring the special operations troops into closer contact with the Islamic State.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Nothing changes. Debt continues to grow and grow.

Senate passes debt and spending hike in dead of night – Washington Times
By Stephen Dinan – The Washington Times – Friday, October 30, 2015

Senate Republicans managed to wrangle enough of their troops to overcome a filibuster early Friday morning and pass the new budget deal, granting President Obama yet another debt holiday, busting the budget caps and boosting spending some $80 billion over the next two years.

Democrats, who are far more thrilled with the deal, did the heavy lifting, providing most of the votes as they won some $40 billion in new domestic spending in 2016 and 2017. They also forced the GOP to retreat on the hard-fought 2011 budget agreement that had helped bring deficits back under control.

Conservative Republicans were irate at their leaders and at defense hawks within the GOP who forced the deal by saying it was worth busting the caps in order to get the Pentagon more money at a time when the U.S. is fighting the war on terror.

“This deal represents the worst of Washington culture,” said Rep. Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican and presidential candidate who’d vowed to lead the filibuster, but who saw his efforts fall short to what he called an “unholy compromise between right and left.”

The bill cleared on a 64-35 vote, with just 18 Republicans joining all Democrats in backing the bill.



US Neocons Ready to Risk Lives of American Soldiers in Syria – Ron Paul
21:14 28.10.2015(updated 21:16 28.10.2015)

Americans must speak out now before it’s too late, Ron Paul warns, pointing to the fact that US neocons obsessed about their regime change idea have no scruples about risking the lives of US soldiers and even a major war in the region.

Although Defense Secretary Ashton Carter admitted the complete failure of the US “train and equip” program for rebels in Syria, he is not going to give up, former US congressman Ron Paul remarks.

“Instead of taking the appropriate lessons from that failure and getting out of the ‘regime change’ business, he announced the opposite. The US would not only escalate its ‘train and equip’ program by removing the requirement that fighters be vetted for extremist ideology, but according to the Secretary the US military would for the first time become directly and overtly involved in combat in Syria and Iraq,” Dr. Paul emphasized in his article for the Institute of Peace and Prosperity.

To complicate matters further, Secretary Carter proclaimed that the US would begin to fight Islamic State directly “whether by strikes from the air or direct action on the ground.”

“Direct action on the ground” means US boots on the ground, the former congressman stressed.

President Obama ruled out such a possibility when he launched an anti-ISIL military campaign in Iraq and Syria last year, but it is likely the White House will break the promise now.



US Threatens UK With Trade Barriers If It Leaves The European Union
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2015 17:03 -0400

One of the most important decisions Brits have to make before the end of 2017 (most likely some time next year) is whether or not to remain in the European Union, and while recent polls have those willing to stay in as the majority, there has been a spike in support for leaving the bloc…


… which coupled with Europe’s refugee crisis has made a Brexit an all too possible outcome.

Which probably explains why the U.S., confident it sill has veto power over democracies anywhere in the world, has just made it quite clear to UK’s citizens which way they should vote.

According to the Guardian, the US trade representative, Michael Froman, in the first public comments from a senior US official on the matter, said that “the United States is not keen on pursuing a separate free trade deal with Britain if it leaves the European Union.”

Just like in the case of Scotland’s vote last year, trade is being used a key bargaining chip, or rather ultimatum: vote the way we want, or else. Guardian adds that Froman’s comments on Wednesday undermine a key economic argument deployed by proponents of exit, who say Britain would prosper on its own and be able to secure bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) with trading partners.

The US is Britain’s biggest export market after the EU, buying more than $54bn (£35bn) in goods from the UK in 2014.

“I think it’s absolutely clear that Britain has a greater voice at the trade table being part of the EU, being part of a larger economic entity,” Froman told Reuters, adding that EU membership gives Britain more leverage in negotiations.

“We’re not particularly in the market for FTAs with individual countries. We’re building platforms … that other countries can join over time.”



Futures Market Fraud
By Craig Hemke
Friday, October 30, 2015 at 11:56 am

As we begin another Spec rinse cycle on The Comex, we thought it best to remind everyone once again of the fraudulent nature of the short selling that takes place there.

The central component of any futures market is the physical asset that backs the exchange. Though we can’t be certain of exactly how much gold is in the Comex vaults (recall the disclaimer added in June of 2013:, we can be certain that it is nowhere near the amount needed to settle the thousands of paper claims written against it.

And it is the unlimited ability of the “market-making” Bullion Banks to create these paper claims that lies at the heart of the matter.

Your latest example of Bullion Bank price manipulation and suppression through the use of this unlimited leverage has occurred this month. First, let’s look at the CME Gold Stocks data as supplied by the CME Group. Note that the two reports below are dated October 1 and October 28:


The most important item to note: On October 1, the total amount of gold shown to be in the Comex vaults was 6,850,580 troy ounces. As of October 28, this amount had fallen to 6,700,799 troy ounces for a total decline of 149,781 ounces.

In a fair market, this decline in the total amount of the asset backing the paper contracts would force an equivalent decline in the number of contracts available on the exchange. Let’s assume two things for the sake of creating a more fair futures market:



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is only the beginning of a major shockwave to hit retirees.

Why 8,737 UPS retirees are bracing for pension cuts
By Katie Lobosco   @KatieLobosco

UPS earned more than $3 billion last year. But 8,737 of its former workers could see their pension checks cut next summer.

The problem is that some UPS retirees receive their pensions from the cash-strapped Central States Pension Fund, which covers hundreds of thousands of workers from different companies. That fund says it needs to make cuts in order to keep from running out of money.

Jim Dopp, 63, is one of the former UPS truck drivers. He retired in May of 2007 after more than 30 years on the job with a monthly pension check of $2,903. But last month, he received a letter saying his check could be slashed in half — to $1,452 — as soon as July, if the Treasury Department approves the plan.

The real kicker is that UPS would’ve covered the cuts made to his pension if Dopp had retired just eight months later.

Here’s why UPS won’t pay

The Central States Pension Fund used to administer pension benefits to a group of unionized UPS drivers, but the company left the fund in 2008 as a way to save money and provide retirees with better benefits. It set up its own pension fund, but only took current workers with it. Any UPS drivers who had already retired would still be covered solely by the Central States fund.

“We do not have a contractual obligation to cover supplemental benefits for those UPS employees that had retired and were in the Central States fund prior to 2008,” a UPS spokesman told CNN Money.



This Is What The “Invasion Of Europe” Looks Like
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2015 21:20 -0400

On Monday, we brought you a series of still shots along with a video which depicted the scope of Europe’s migrant crisis via drone footage.

The point in highlighting the imagery was to demonstrate just how futile the EU’s effort to establish a series of refugee “holding camps” along the Balkan route to Germany is likely to be.





As a reminder, Jean-Claude Juncker and Angela Merkel are attempting to convince recalcitrant states to support efforts to place hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers, but a mandatory quota system only served to enrage the likes of Hungary which quickly moved to close off its borders with Serbia and Croatia and that, in turn, set off a Balkan border battle.

Now, Brussels is looking to provide shelter for the migrants as they make their way to Germany but as we noted earlier this week, these way stations will swiftly become overcrowded, unsafe refugee internment camps and they’ll likely be easy targets for vociferous anti-migrant protests or worse.

If you needed further evidence of the extent to which any attempt to shelter the flood of asylum seekers with makeshift camps is likely to prove not only futile, but dangerous, consider the following video which vividly demonstrates just how acute the crisis has become:



Minor incident ‘could spark war’ in South China Sea
Warning to Americans from Admiral Wu Shengli, Chinese naval commander as tensions rise
By Neil Connor, Beijing
1:08PM GMT 30 Oct 2015

China’s top naval officer warned his US counterpart that Washington’s “provocative acts” in the South China Sea could spark war, as the powerful maritime rivals held talks two days after a US destroyer sailed near man-made islands built by Beijing in the disputed waters.

Admiral Wu Shengli, China’s naval commander, spoke to US chief of naval operations Admiral John Richardson during a video teleconference on Thursday, arranged after tensions escalated following the US vessel sailing past the contested Spratly Islands.

“If the United States continues with these kinds of dangerous, provocative acts, there could well be a severe and urgent situation between frontline forces from both sides on the sea and in the air, or even a minor incident that sparks war,” Adm Wu said, according to a report from state news agency Xinhua which indirectly quoted him.

“I hope the US cherish the good situation between the Chinese navy and US navy which has not come easily, and avoids similar cases happening again.”

China’s defence ministry said ahead of the teleconference that it would consider all available options in protecting its “national sovereignty and security”.

“We will take all measures necessary based on our needs to cope with any security threats,” said Yang Yujun, the ministry’s spokesman.



Powdering The GDP Pig – There Was No Escape Velocity Inside
Contra Corner Digest – October 30, 2015

The talking heads were busy yesterday morning powdering the GDP pig. By averaging up the “disappointing” 1.5% gain for Q3 with the previous quarter they were able to pronounce that the economy is moving forward at an “encouraging” 2% clip.

And once we get through this quarter’s big negative inventory adjustment, they insisted, we will be off to the ‘escape velocity’ races. Again.

No we won’t!

The global economy is in an epochal deflationary swoon and the US economy has already hit stall speed. It is only a matter of months before this long-in-the-tooth 75-month old business expansion will rollover into outright liquidation of excess inventories and hoarded labor.

That is otherwise known as a recession. Its arrival will be a thundering repudiation of the lunatic monetary policies of the last seven years; and it will send into panicked shock all those buy-the-dip speculators and robo-traders who still presume the central bank is omnipotent.

So forget all the averaging and seasonally maladjusted noise in yesterday’s report and peak inside at the warning signs. To begin, the year/year gain of just 2.0% was the weakest result since the first quarter of 2014. And that’s only if you believe that inflation during the last 12 months was just 0.9%, as per the GDP deflator used by the Commerce Department statistical mills.


Posted at 8:15 AM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

My original thought for a writing was the hilarious action following yesterday’s Fed meeting and to comment on last night’s debate. Something far more “real” has arisen in the last 24 hours of far more importance, before getting to that, let’s look at the Fed’s “hawkish” statement first.

Janet Yellen and crew would have you believe they “will”… “might” raise interest rates in December. They say this because the Fed (as all central banks have) has lost credibility and are forced to jawbone as this is their only “policy option” left. They absolutely CANNOT raise interest rates as the rest of the world is easing in futile attempts to reflate declining economic activity. The U.S. economy is in reality declining, John Crudele does a great job of picking the latest GDP report apart I cannot believe the e-mails I’ve recently received on this topic with people petrified the Fed can raise rates …which will supposedly hurt gold?

PEOPLE! If the Fed were to raise rates from here, our already declining economy will be flushed! A strong dollar has already put more than a pinch on our exports …but the real killer will be the financial system itself. Derivatives will blow up all around the world with a dollar rate hike, this will make the real economy a moot point as the banks will close their doors. In case anyone forgot, it was as recent as Monday we were hearing trial balloons from Fed mouthpieces regarding NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES!!! How credible is it to go from talking about negative rates to raising rates …in the same week? Please understand this, there is now NO POLICY option that can fix the position we are in. The only thing that remains is how a re set is accomplished and how severe it is. Fed “policy” is a mirage at this point, their only goal now is to prolong the use dollars. Their policy is just as fake as the product they aim to protect.

Another topic illustrating just how fake our lives are, were the debates last night. Fed cheerleaders from CNBC absolutely disgraced themselves with the questions they asked and how they conducted themselves. The questioning was asinine only to be followed by disrespectfully interrupting answers and talking over responses. CNBC “journalists” pulled their pants down and showed they do have an agenda and are not “above” anything …including reporting impossible economic numbers with a straight face. Surprisingly (to the idiots at CNBC), none of the candidates took the bait to attack each other, instead they turned on the moderators. Can you imagine ANY of these questions being asked at a Democratic “love fest” debate?

For the most part, the Republicans at least told the truth that we as a people really do have big problems. Several heartfelt responses received applause, then Ted Cruz mentioned a gold standard …and Rand Paul spoke of auditing the Fed to an eerie silence of nothing but crickets. Many of the proposals last night were quite good, unfortunately they will not prevent the coming re set. I believe much of what we heard can and should be implemented once the system liquidates and reopens, nothing will prevent the liquidation phase.

Before getting to the “reality”, let me say something so there are no misconceptions of who I am. I am neither Republican nor Democrat. I am fiscally conservative and have a few social issues I could be considered left leaning. When I vote (it no longer matters who you vote for, only “who” counts the votes), I vote for the person and their ideas, not “the party”. In fact, when all is said and done on a grand scale, Republicans and Democrats are “owned” by the same powers and their policies seem to reach the same end though from slightly different roads.

U.S. politics is nothing more than a circus for the entertainment of the population. We are two years past an election where the people threw the bums out and replaced them with Republicans who promised to roll back many bad programs and even defund Obamacare. NOTHING has been done even though both houses are Republican majority. They flat out lied.

As for Democrats/liberals, how can anyone even have a conversation with them? I can’t, I don’t even try anymore. Typically past conversations with liberals end up with me being screamed at and called all sorts of names. All you need to do is say president Obama has ridiculous policies, broken logic and lies when his mouth is moving …and you are automatically called a racist. If you switch gears to show you are not a racist and praise the logic, demeanor and patriotism of Ben Carson …you are then a right wing Christian extremist.

Before finishing this little section on “liberals”, let’s talk about their banner cause …FREE SPEECH. Have you ever noticed they always support someone’s right to an opinion (or religion or lifestyle) the more shocking it is? If you are patriotic and espouse or defend The Constitution you are considered a nutcase right wing Christian extremist. I would ask, is this such a bad thing? What exactly is wrong with the Constitution? Is it “unfair” or something? Or, what is wrong with being a Christian? Have you ever seen a Christian chop off the head of a Muslim because they don’t believe in Jesus? Even if you are not religious at all, would you not agree the world would be a far better place if everyone walked the Earth and tried to emulate the “man” they called Jesus? As for Muslims, Europe is getting a first hand look at their loving ways. By the way, Mr. Putin commented that Muslims in Russia would have to follow Russian laws and customs …or LEAVE. What a novel idea, why didn’t we think of this?!!! OK, I’ll stop here because I can already hear the screaming and name calling!

Two pieces of news that really do matter relates to Russia. First, Mr. Putin declared settlement for domestic oil will be in roubles, the use of dollars AND euros for settlement are now banned A second piece of news were Russian bomber planes buzzing the USS Ronald Reagan in international waters off of South Korea This is not highly unusual but it does increase the odds of “an accident” happening.

What is not an accident are Russian bombing sorties in efforts to help Syria’s Assad. Can you guess the latest possible policy response by the Obama administration? “Boots on the ground” in Syria! Who thought this one up? It is thought to be a good idea to place U.S. soldier where Russian planes are dropping bombs? It was also thought to be a good idea to send a naval vessel slowly past the Chinese South Sea islands. Was there an upside to this? Especially after being warned by China not to do this? What could possibly go wrong?

Do you see where this is headed and why? The United States is financially (and morally) broke. The Chinese and Russians know this. THIS is what really matters! Our way of life is about to change forever yet what is put forth for internal public consumption are topics of political correctness. Will being politically correct even matter while this country is forced to rebuild everything from the financial system to infrastructure to something as simple as a work ethic …for AT LEAST ONE FULL GENERATION?!!! …And this assumes the crazies in Washington don’t decide to just kick the table over and start pushing every red button they can find.

I am sorry if I have hurt anyone’s feelings with this missive (not really). It is what it is and unfortunately we have lazied away all previously built up capital (not just financial) left to us by our ancestors. We have done everything they warned us not to. Like little kids we found the easy way out and our parents were just old fashioned prudes who knew not what they were talking about. Please do not write me and ask “why can’t they just keep the façade going forever”? If you do ask it means you took the wrong colored pill and washed it down with Kool Aid to integrate and become part of the problem!


Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome [email protected]

Posted at 8:05 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

An email to CIGA Al, a man who described himself as an average American, Vietnam veteran speaking about Bengazi.

Dear Al,

God bless those men who of their own free will ran towards danger in Bengazi and took out 70 scums before they were over run in their line of chosen duty. Where is the statue in Washington commemorating their ultimate service and greatest of all sacrifice, their lives. Former special service volunteers knew they would never come out of that fight, yet they entered it voluntarily and took out 70 of the bad guys before they were overrun by sheer numbers. I pray they got a hero’s welcome into the special Heaven for the courageous by God Himself, not just St. Peter, where all their sins were forgiven due to their valor, commitment, sacrifice and bravery in the face of the ultimate challenge. All their former fallen comrades saluted as they were waiting to greet and applaud them for their service to God, country and man. Where is it?

I am sickened by those that sully their memory and put rainbow colors, not red. white and blue on the former White house.

I am eager to hear anything you wish to share with me.





U.S. Personal Spending, Income Both Rise By 0.1% In September – Kitco News, Oct 30 2015


Actually, both down from last month’s 0.4%

CIGA Wolfgang R

Posted at 3:29 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

CIGA Dr. David asks how Washington would react if Russia did the same on the Mexican border with the permission of Mexico?

NATO Looks To Station Thousands Of Troops On Border With Russia
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2015 10:00 -0400

Russia’s dramatic intervention in Syria has served to push the conflict in Ukraine (a country that is now partially governed by Star Wars characters) to the back of the world’s collective mind. After all, separatists exchanging fire with government forces and/or far-right “volunteer” battalions every couple of days against a dreary backdrop of rundown Eastern European towns isn’t nearly as exciting as Sukhois dropping bombs on sword-waving desert bandits and so, Ukraine’s crisis has gradually receded into the background.

That said, it’s important to remember that one of the principal reasons for deteriorating relations between Moscow and the West is the conflict in Ukraine.

Indeed, Russian “aggression” in the region has triggered a series of snap drills on NATO’s part, the most amusing of which involved a set of war games centered around the capture of a fictional Ukrainian separatist leader called “Birdman” who lived in a shack in the forest. But all humor aside, NATO has also moved to beef up its capabilities near Russia’s border, as the US prepares to place heavy weapons in Poland and the Pentagon runs simulations to determine who would win a Balkan battle.

Now, with tensions running higher than ever thanks to the escalating situation in the Mid-East, NATO is set to bolster its Eastern flank to guard against what the West imagines is an imminent Russian invasion. Here’s WSJ with more:

NATO countries are discussing increasing the number of troops stationed in members bordering Russia and putting them under formal alliance command, part of a new effort to deter aggression from Moscow, according to diplomats and military officers.

Under one plan, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would have a battalion in Poland and each of the three Baltic states—roughly 800 to 1,000 soldiers in each unit. A more modest version would have a single NATO battalion in the area.

While that sounds great to Washington’s war hawks, the Germans aren’t entirely sure that casting The Kremlin as the real world equivalent of the Death Star is a particularly sound idea when it comes to effective long-term foreign policy objectives:

While the U.S. and other allies are supportive, German officials in particular have expressed reservations, telling the allies in private discussions that they don’t want to treat Moscow as a permanent enemy or lock it out of Europe, despite the frictions over Ukraine and other provocations.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A note that came in over the transom from an extremely well informed and smart fellow.

“Putin said; “Don’t push Russia, otherwise I will be forced to release a financial nuclear weapon that will destroy the financial structure of the Dollar (Russia and China have been game planning for all this… over many moons).  From their position; they may be timing their dollar attack with the extension of the debt ceiling rise in the U.S., as it always gets world wide attention ( Rand Paul is now filibustering same). The news on Deutsche bank highlights one of the main players in the derivatives mess.”

Posted at 3:10 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


A phrase that gets easily lost in the article:

…..”will ultimately be replaced with the hyperinflationary endgame”

BofA is getting it.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

BofA Looks At Europe’s Record €2.6 Trillion In Negative-Yielding Debt, Is Shocked At What It Finds
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2015 – 10:22

“The rise in household savings rates amid so much central bank support is paradoxical to us, and mimics what we highlighted in the credit market earlier this year. Companies in Europe are deleveraging, not releveraging”

So while everyone is gradually realizing that unconventional monetary policy using the bank reserve pathway simply does not work to increase broad inflation (however it does miracles for asset-price, i.e., stock market, inflation) which in a world drowning under $200 trillion in debt is the only goal, and will ultimately be replaced with the hyperinflationary endgame of simple monetary paradrops, also known as central-bank funded fiscal stimulus or “helicopter money”, for now the hope is that doing more of the same which is clearly not working will finally work, and lead to the much desired jump in inflation.




You’ve been warning us about this for years.

Now it’s coming to pass.

“Not everyone in the fund is seeing the same size cut to their pension. Those over 80, on disability, or receiving a spousal death benefit will not see their pension checks cut.” ( all 7 of them!)

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Why 8,737 UPS retirees are bracing for pension cuts

The problem is that some UPS retirees receive their pensions from the cash-strapped Central States Pension Fund, which covers hundreds of thousands of workers from different companies. That fund says it needs to make cuts in order to keep from running out of money.

Jim Dopp, 63, is one of the former UPS truck drivers. He retired in May of 2007 after more than 30 years on the job with a monthly pension check of $2,903. But last month, he received a letter saying his check could be slashed in half — to $1,452 — as soon as July, if the Treasury Department approves the plan.




Something appears amiss here.

With all the talk of Europe going down the tubes, why would anyone, individual, fund, or sovereign entity, purchase their bonds? At negative yields no less!

Why wouldn’t they purchase US Bonds instead at a positive return? With the supposed safety of the almighty dollar!

I can understand buying junk bonds to capture higher yields, but to buy them at negative yields, over the supposed safety of US Treasuries, makes no sense at all.

The only conclusion I can come to is this: There is an underlying fear that the US bond market and the US dollar are not what they appear to be on the surface. Perhaps the investors see something we don’t and is not talked about in public.


“But what happens if one expands the Eurozone NIRP universe to include the debt of other countries including Japan, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and so on? Conveniently, JPM has done the analysis and finds that a mindblowing $3.6 trillion of government debt traded with a negative yield as recently as last week. This represents 16% of the JPM Global Government Bond Index, or in other words nearly a fifth of all global government debt is now trading with a negative yield, meaning investors pay sovereigns, using other people’s money of course, for the privilege of buying their issuance!”

This scares the dickens out of me.

Diogenes wasn’t seeking an honest man… he was seeking gold, as many Central Banks are currently.

And so should everyone!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech.

NIRP Panic: Over Half Of European 2-Year Bonds Trade At Record Negative Yields; Italy Paid To Issue Debt
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2015 – 12:53

Europe has unleashed yet another monetary panic, and nowhere is it more visible than in what happened today across the short end of Europe’s government curve.  As the table below shows, more than half of European sovereign issuers just saw the yield on their 2 Year Notes trade not only below zero, but hit never before seen negative yields!




There’s good news and there’s good news.

If the Fed doesn’t hike rates, gold will rally on a weaker dollar. If the Fed does hike rates, the stronger dollar will bring economic chaos to corporate arena. Thus requiring increased stimulus to bring us out of a recession. Thus gold will also rally.


CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Dear Wolfgang,

This is what is referred to as the rock and the hard place. Take your pick.