Posted at 1:35 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

“Aeroplane money” versus “Helicopter money” used by the combined central banks of Europe and the USA would give you $40,000 Dow easily, with the gold to Dow ratio (with gold more than 50% higher than the Dow). Aeroplane money is different than Helicopter money and cannot be camouflaged as to being sterilized.

Best Regards,

Hi Jim,

I read this several times and I still don’t grasp why Armstrong thinks the next target for the Dow is 23,000 and then on to 40,000!!

Maybe you and Bill can figure it out.

I’m at a loss for words!


Financial Sense Interview with Armstrong
July 25, 2016

Posted at 1:25 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Playing chicken with taxi cabs for nukes is total madness. How is Japan to know what is or is not aboard the missile?

U.N. Chief ‘Deeply Troubled’ By North Korea Missile Launches
August 3rd, 2016


UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is “deeply troubled” by North Korea’s recent missile launches, his spokesman said on Wednesday after one of the rockets landed in or near Japanese-controlled waters for the first time.

“Such actions seriously undermine regional peace and stability. We reiterate the call on the DPRK (North Korea) to heed the united call of the international community to reverse its course and return to the process of sincere dialogue,” said U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric.

(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by James Dalgleish)


Latest North Korea missile launch lands near Japan waters, alarms Tokyo

North Korea launched a ballistic missile on Wednesday that landed in or near Japanese-controlled waters for the first time, the latest in a series of launches by the isolated country in defiance of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

The main body of the missile landed in Japan’s economic exclusion zone, a Japanese defence official said, escalating regional tensions that were already high after a series of missile launches this year and the decision by the United States to place a sophisticated anti-missile system in South Korea.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe described the launch as a “grave threat” to Japan and said Tokyo “strongly protested”. Japan also said its self-defence force would remain on alert in case of further launches.

A U.S. State Department spokesman condemned the launch, and said it would “only increase the international community’s resolve to counter” North Korea’s actions.


Posted at 10:18 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is Deutsch Bank’s worst nightmare.

Italian Bank’s Rescue Plan Faces Hurdles
July 31, 2016

With the ink barely dry on its bailout plan, Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena faces a Herculean task convincing investors to back a third recapitalisation in as many years and avert a banking crisis that would send shockwaves across Europe.

To stave off the risk of being wound down, the world’s oldest bank has hastily unveiled the private sector-backed rescue blueprint late on Friday. It came just hours before the lender emerged as the worst performer in European stress tests that showed its capital would be entirely wiped out in a severe economic downturn.

The plan aims to clean up and bolster the bank’s balance sheet once and for all, restoring to health a lender whose frailty threatens the wider Italian banking system, the savings of thousands of retail investors and the increasingly weak political standing of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

A financial crisis in the eurozone’s third-biggest economy would also risk creating contagion across Europe, a region already reeling from Britain’s decision to leave the EU.

The two-pronged rescue scheme hinges on Monte dei Paschi raising five billion euros ($A7.36 billion) in a cash call to be completed by the end of 2016 – a tall order for a lender that is worth less than one billion on the market and that has burned through eight billion euros from share issues since 2014.

Global investment banks have made a preliminary agreement to underwrite the rights issue by Italy’s third biggest bank.

But this is subject to conditions, including that the second prong of the bank’s plan is successful: the sale of 9.2 billion euros of bad loans via a mammoth securitisation, whose sheer size is unprecedented in Italy.

As the bank’s shares – which have lost nearly 80 per cent of their value this year – brace for Monday’s market reaction to the bailout scheme, senior bankers and fund managers are already questioning the chances of the plan’s success.

“Both legs of the plan are potentially fragile,” said Filippo Alloatti, credit analyst at asset manager Hermes Investments.

“It will be difficult to complete such a big capital increase given their track record with past cash calls, and the securitisation is a monster operation, a puzzle full of moving pieces that need to fall into place. The execution risk is significant.”


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’

- Broad, Deepening Economic Downtrend Continued
- Revised Annual Change in GDP Slowed Sharply, Consistent with Entering a Recession
- Headline Real Quarterly GDP Revisions Took Fourth-Quarter 2015 and First-Quarter 2016 Growth Rates Lower, Below 1.0%, but Not Negative, with First-Quarter 2016 GNP Minimally Below Zero, Again
- Well Below Consensus, the Advance Second-Quarter 2016 Real GDP Annualized Growth of 1.22% Faces Likely Downside Revisions
- Nonetheless, Aggregate GDP Revisions Were Minimal and Heavily Gimmicked, Including Cycle-Dampening Three-Year Moving Averages
- Carefully Structured Statistical Shenanigans Were Designed to Smooth the Business Cycle, Not to Reveal It

- Velocity of Money Slowed Sharply in Second-Quarter 2016

“No. 823: Second-Quarter 2016 GDP and Annual Revisions “

Posted at 10:03 PM (CST) by & filed under

America is Doomed Without Restoring the Rule of Law-Karl Denninger
July 31, 2016

Trader and entrepreneur Karl Denninger has a dire warning. He basically says if there is lawlessness at the top of society, there will be lawlessness at the bottom. Denninger, who is so distraught he has suspended writing on his popular website, explains, “It is illegal for any entity with market power or anybody else to price fix. It is illegal to price commodities of like, mind and quantity in the market place. That is a federal law, and violations of these laws are not civil affairs, they’re felonies. . . . The only deterrents for corporations against bad behavior is people go to jail or the firm has its charter revoked because it runs out of money. The reason that is the case is as long as I can pay a fine and shift the cost onto the customers or shareholders or both, there is not deterrent—at all. . . . When does a CEO ever get indicted? When do members of the board ever get indicted? The answer is never.”

Denninger says the lawlessness trickles down, and it’s bad for growth and innovation that creates jobs. Denninger contends, “The problem with this is economic progress. Without people having the ability and the promise to get ahead, what do you have left? . . . If this sinks into people’s consciousness, then the game is over. If you cannot entice people to get out there and create the next big thing, to be the next Intel, to be the next Amazon, then everybody swallows everybody until there is nothing left. If you are all sharks trying to eat each other, then there is no progress.”

Denninger also makes a dire prediction about a coming future crash. Denninger says, “All exponential growth forecasts that do not have an end date on them run up against mathematical facts. . . . You can’t have infinite expansion forever. Where it is coming to the forefront first is in the healthcare area. Obama Care was an attempt to extend the scam by a few more years because it was starting to collapse in 2007 and 2008. This is how they managed to buy themselves another six or seven years by forcing everybody into it. The problem is now you made it worse. . . . Here’s what everybody needs to take away from this and the most important aspect. In 2007 and 2008, the crash preceded the mathematical wall by a lot. . . . The market never allows you to get to the mathematical wall because somebody wakes up every night and gets really nervous. That’s just the way humans are. As long as the number of people who wake up really nervous is outpaced by the number of people that say ‘that’s an opportunity to make money,’ everything is fine. The day a critical mass of people say ‘oh my goodness,’ that’s when it comes apart. It always happens before you hit the mathematical limits. . . . The tipping point could come tomorrow for all I know.”


Posted at 1:11 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


Many people around the world are unfamiliar with derivatives against the oil companies and producers. With this bad of a mess imagine all of the high-yield debt that is tied to energy that could go wrong. In my opinion this is yet another linchpin that could be pulled to set off a market catastrophe. If the big producers are missing that badly imagine what the midsize oil companies have done. I have seen several mid and small producers out of Texas collapse in the last 18 months because of collapsing oil prices. Got gold?


A good point! (Although the article still expects higher prices).

A ripe banana is not the same as a fresh picked one. Yes, it may be sweeter, but its lifespan is severely limited.

If everyone is in high yielding stocks and bonds, which by all calculations makes them overpriced, then what?

I can only think of gold as the final and ultimate “safe haven”
CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Are Those Safe Haven Assets Safe Anymore?
July 29, 2016

Michael Sonnenfeldt doesn’t mince words: “There is no safety in safety,” the founder of Tiger 21, a network of “ultra-high-net-worth” investors, said. “All of the historical places you could get safe income from—dividend-paying stocks, bonds—they’ve all been bid up because of quantitative easing to the point where it’s just trash.”

Assets that include Treasury notes, high-quality dividend stocks, and low-volatility mutual funds have all seen spooked investors rush into their supposedly safe embrace. Sonnenfeldt and others argue that has transformed them.

“When you overpay for what used to be safe assets,” he said, “they now have a lot of risk in them.”

Whether they’re “trash” is debatable. But the concern that the prices of these assets may now be propped up more by fear than by economic fundamentals is legitimate.

Here’s a look at how some “safe” assets that investors have raced into over the past year or so are holding up. For a backdrop, take a look at how the S&P 500 has performed since last August’s deep dive.


Posted at 4:10 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

More bad news to Chair Yellen of the “we are going to raise rates” department. The action is not, but the words border on politically correct.

US Homeownership Rate Of 62.9 Percent Matches A 51-Year Low
July 28, 2016

WASHINGTON – The proportion of U.S. households that own homes has matched its lowest level in 51 years — evidence that rising property prices, high rents and stagnant pay have made it hard for many to buy.

Just 62.9 per cent of households owned a home in the April-June quarter this year, a decrease from 63.4 per cent 12 months ago, the Census Bureau said Thursday. The share of homeowners now equals the rate in 1965, when the census began tracking the data.

The trend appears most pronounced among millennial households, ages 18 to 34, many of whom are straining under the weight of rising apartment rents and heavy student debt. Their homeownership rate fell 0.7 percentage point over the past year to 34.1 per cent. That decline may reflect, in part, more young adults leaving their parents’ homes for rental apartments.

The overall decline appears to be due largely to the increased formation of rental households, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at the real estate site Trulia. McLaughlin cautioned, though, that the decrease in homeownership from a year ago was not statistically significant.

America added nearly a million households over the past year and all of them were renters. Home ownership has declined even as the housing market has been recovering from the 2007 bust that triggered the Great Recession. Ownership peaked at 69.2 per cent at the end of 2004.


Posted at 7:13 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Leftist Filmmaker Uploads Video Showing His Shock At Just How Empty The DNC Is
July 27, 2016

If you’re watching the big news networks, you’d think the Democratic National Convention is a standing-room-only smashing success with zero controversy, angry protests, and tons of American flags.

Film director, Josh Fox, best known for his Oscar-nominated anti-fracking documentary Gasland, uploaded a video (below) to his Facebook page live from inside the Wells Fargo Center, where he was utterly shocked at the amount of empty seats.

Fox tells the camera, “This is amazing, this place is empty. There is nobody left in here. I mean this whole stadium, look at this,” as he pans his cellphone to show the lack of cheering Dems.

He continues in disbelief, adding, “This is not voter enthusiasm…. I can’t believe my eyes. I’ve never seen anything like this. This is the primetime of the Democratic National Convention right after the nomination of Hillary Clinton and this place is emptied out like crazy. I’m stunned.”

“This is insane. The whole California delegation is pretty much gone,” he adds.”I mean this has got to be something very worrisome for the Democrats. Voter enthusiasm wins elections.”


No. 822: Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales, Freight Index, Household Income

Mr. Williams shares with us one more time:

- Broad Economic Downtrend Continued, Despite a Likely Positive, First Guesstimate of Second-Quarter GDP
- Real Durable Goods Orders Tumbled in Second-Quarter 2016 Both Before (-0.8%) and After (-4.1%) Consideration for Commercial Aircraft
- Year-to-Year New Orders Fell Sharply in June 2016, Both Before and After Consideration of Inflation and Commercial Aircraft
- Aggregate Real Durable Goods Orders Continued in Smoothed, Down-Trending, Low-Level Stagnation and Non-Recovery
- Absurd Surges in New-Home Sales Activity Were Not Significant, with the Series in Continued Low-Level Stagnation and Non-Recovery,
Still Shy of its Pre-Recession Peak by 57.4% (-57.4%)
- Despite Highest Existing-Home Sales Level Since 2007, Activity Remained Shy of its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.4% (-23.4%), Continuing in a Smoothed Pattern of Non-Recovering Stagnation
- Freight Index Showed Deepening New Recession, No Recovery
- After Tumbling in April and May, Real Median Household Income Ticked Insignificantly Higher in June


Dear Corey,

You were very lucky.

First is you were not arrested.

You got your money which is surprising.

On your ride home a State trooper did not relieve those funds of such size, you certainly were planning something very illegal.

The real question is can anything wake up the sheeple before it is too late, like maybe tomorrow.

Best regards,

I saw you issued another bail-in warning and the following passage prompted me to write you:

This is the second significant bank to give this notice. What do you need?
Twenty of them to make the same announcement!?!
I would suggest a jog, not walk, to any bank you have money in and try to take out any meaningful amount of cash.

You are in for a surprise. Better to be first in line and the squeaky wheel, not last and begging.

A couple of years ago I earned some substantial lump sum commissions check at my sales job. I already figured that my bank was insolvent, devoid of the cash-on-hand needed to make whole on a substantial client base who demanded to get out. Having studied the financial system since I “woke up” in 2008 I also appreciated the utility of having some cash on hand, so went to take out 60,000 cash to mitigate my 3rd party ‘bail in’ risk. The rest I have invested in some of the other things you & your readership discuss – gold, silver, hobby farming, equipment, skills, etc.
Anyways, since I anticipated a lack of collateral, I wore a hidden camera and recorded the interaction which exposed the fact that my branch bank likely did not have more than $100,000 currency on-hand.  I won’t bore you with details, but it caused the whole branch to scramble just to come up with the 60k & there are only a handful of these facilities around here. At the time of the recording I lived in a metropolitan area, where substantial wealth is circulating, so it shocked me to my core.
They told me my withdrawal alone almost completely drained their branch & they would have to “order more money.” They also demanded me to fill out some PatriotAct enforced paperwork about the money I was taking out, which I refused on principle.
This was the visceral first hand proof I needed for myself to know for a fact that we live in a banana republic and there was no where NEAR the cash reserves anywhere to make people solvent if there was a suddenly real bank-run or inflationary event. My own experience was prima facie evidence of that.

Do you think this kind of citizen journalism, if produced and promoted correctly, would be a big help to shift the psychological perception sufficiently to have the proper market response we have all expected to happen a long time ago?

Ultimately I decided not to upload the video, but was reminded of it when I saw your comments in my news feed. I wondered if other people saw this for themselves, would they finally wake up? I don’t know what else we have to do!

Signed Sincerely,
“The Golden Rule”