Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
John Williams comments.
- October’s Labor Numbers Skewed by Seasonal-Factors Distorted by Last Year’s Government Shutdown
- Resulting Understated October 2014 Unemployment Rates: 5.8% (U.3), 11.5% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
- Election Polling Again Indicated No Economic Recovery, With Pocketbook Issues Dominating the Voting – New Proprietary Analyses
- GAAP-Based 2014 Federal Deficit Was About $6 Trillion, Versus Headline Cash-Based $0.5 Trillion Shortfall
- 2014 Net Federal Obligations Approached $100 Trillion, GAAP-Based, Net Present Value
- Reporting Shenanigans: Headline Deficit Well Shy of Jump in Debt
- Fed Monetized 78% of Headline 2014 Federal Deficit
- Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Held at 4.2%
"No. 672: October Labor Data, Money Supply M3, Federal Deficit, Election 2014"
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
More blowback from sanctions.
China to avoid dangerous maritime route thanks to gas deal with Russia’
Published time: November 10, 2014 11:11
Most of China’s energy resources are imported via the Pacific, and is threatened by the US military presence. The gas deal with Russia allows China to minimize the risks, China-based journalist Brendan O’Reilly told RT.
Lin Shaowen from China Radio International on the China-Russia gas deal: “It’s a deal coming at the time of need. When China is looking for more sources of energy, Russia is looking for stable long-term market that is reliable. We both have reached a deal that will last for decades. So it’s certainly good news for the two economies.”
Russia and China have agreed a second gas deal, the so-called western route. President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping signed a memorandum of understanding at the Asia-Pacific summit in Beijing. The deal is expected to be signed next year and secure a yearly supply of 30 billion cubic meters of gas to China.
RT: Russia and China are inching towards their second huge gas deal. How big is this agreement? What does this deal mean for Russia, China and the rest of the world?
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Part of the Great Leveling.
Ten million jobs at risk from advancing technology
Up to 35pc of Britain’s jobs will be eliminated by new computing and robotics technology over the next 20 years, say experts
By Alan Tovey, Industry Editor
5:00AM GMT 10 Nov 2014
Ten million British jobs could be taken over by computers and robots over the next 20 years, wiping out more than one in three roles.
Low-paid, repetitive positions are most likely to go, with people earning less than £30,000 a year five times more likely to see their jobs taken over by machines than those paid £100,000, new research has warned.
Huge advances in technology risks creating an under-class of low-skilled people whose jobs have been automated, according to a joint report from Deloitte, the Big Four accountancy firm, and the University of Oxford.
The research predicts that as much as 35pc of jobs across the country will be made redundant by technical advances over the next 10 to 20 years – some 10.8m positions. According to the latest official data, 30.76m people are employed in the UK.
The study, which contains data for all of the UK but focuses on London, says the lower-paid jobs in the capital are eight times more likely to be wiped out than better paid ones.
Overall, workers in London are seen as being safer than those in the rest of the UK, with the study predicting 30pc of jobs will go in the capital. This is because London has fewer manufacturing jobs – a sector likely to face greater automation – as well as a higher proportion of jobs which are creative or require greater skills and knowledge that are less susceptible to being taken on by machines because they cannot replicate human thought.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This is as hardball as it gets. Science has now become a high risk occupation
5 nuclear scientists assassinated near Damascus â€“ report
Published time: November 10, 2014 08:00
Edited time: November 10, 2014 11:05
Five Syrian nuclear scientists have reportedly been killed by unknown assailants while riding a bus north of Damascus, near the research center where they worked, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports.
Unidentified attackers murdered five nuclear energy engineers who worked in the scientific research center near the neighborhood of Barzeh, northern Damascus,â€ Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP.
The news agency meanwhile reports that four of the atomic engineers were Syrian, while the other one was Iranian.
â€œTheir bus was ambushed while they were on their way to the research centre. Their assailants shot them dead," Rahman said.
So far no one has claimed responsibility for the attack.
The UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said last year that Syria had declared a â€œsmall amount of nuclear material,â€ most probably highly enriched uranium, used in a Miniature Neutron Source research reactor, near Damascus, Reuters reported.
This is not the first time that Syrian scientists have been targeted in deliberate assassinations.
Xi Dangles $1.25 Trillion as China Counters U.S. Refocus
By Bloomberg News Nov 9, 2014 5:01 PM GMT+0100
President Xi Jinping sought to counter U.S. efforts aimed at boosting influence in Asia by flexing China’s economic muscle days before a Beijing summit with his counterpart Barack Obama.
Speaking to executives at a CEO gathering in Beijing, Xi outlined how much the world stands to gain from a rising China. He said outbound investment will total $1.25 trillion over the next 10 years, 500 million Chinese tourists will go abroad, and the government will spend $40 billion to revive the ancient Silk Road trade route between Asia and Europe.
“China’s development will generate huge opportunities and benefits and hold lasting and infinite promise,” Xi said. “As China’s overall national strength grows, China will be both capable and willing to provide more public goods for the Asia Pacific and the world.”
China has used the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit under way in Beijing to put forward its own trade and economic proposals to strengthen its sway in Asia. Those incentives complement a greater assertiveness in territorial disputes and moves to upgrade its military after decades of U.S. dominance in the region.
China is rolling out counteroffers for each promise made by President Barack Obama, whom he’ll meet this week in Beijing as part of the summit. Xi is pushing the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific in response to the U.S.-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership, which excludes China. An Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank mostly financed with money from Beijing is seen as an answer to the Asian Development Bank and other multinational lenders where the U.S. and Japan have the most influence.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Wars can easily start by mistake or malfunction.
Close military encounters between Russia and the west ‘at cold war levels’
Report lists 40 cases of ‘brinkmanship’ in past eight months, including near-collision between Russian spy plane and passenger jet
Ewen MacAskill, defence and security correspondent
Sunday 9 November 2014 19.01 EST
Close military encounters between Russia and the west have jumped to cold war levels, with 40 dangerous or sensitive incidents recorded in the past eight months alone, according to a report published on Monday.
The report, Dangerous Brinkmanship by the European Leadership Network, logs a series of “highly disturbing” incidents since the Ukrainian crisis began earlier this year, including an alarming near-collision between a Russian reconnaissance plane and a passenger plane taking off from Denmark in March with 132 passengers on board.
What made the incident especially dangerous was that the Russian plane did not have on its transponders, the usual method of signalling its presence to other aircraft.
The report by the London-based thinktank comes after a warning from former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev that the world is “on the brink of a new cold war”.
The encounters have taken place mainly around the Baltic Sea but also in the Black Sea and along the US and Canadian borders.
“We believe the nearly 40 incidents logged are a very serious development, not necessarily because they indicate a desire on the part of Russia to start a war but because they show a dangerous game of brinkmanship is being played, with the potential for unintended escalation in what is now the most serious security crisis in Europe since the cold war,” say the report’s authors Thomas Frear, Lukasz Kulesa and Ian Kearns.
John Williams’ Take On The October Unemployment Report: "The Economy Remains In Terrible Shape"
Tyler Durden on 11/10/2014 11:40 -0500
When it comes to inflation data, there are two parallel sources: the BLS, and ShadowStats’ John Williams, who continues to plough through the underlying "data" using pre-pre-pre-revision protocols, and every month reveals a parallel universe in which something shocking is revealed: the truth. Here is his take on the October "weaker but really stronger than expected" jobs numbers. Here is what really happened.
Never Recovered, the Economy Remains in Terrible Shape. The large number of opening headlines in today’s (November 9th) missive reflects various stories, ranging from twisted unemployment data, to an election dominated by underlying economic reality, and to headline 2014 financial results on the federal government’s operations that should raise some troubling questions in the markets. The general outlook is unchanged
Twisted Unemployment Numbers. Headline October 2014 unemployment reporting, in particular, was skewed heavily by warped seasonal-adjustment factors that do account properly for last year’s government shutdown. When the U.S. government closed in October 2013, the shutdown encompassed the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) base-period for determining the unemployment and employment detail in the household survey, as well as for determining employment in the payroll survey. The BLS was unable to determine fully the impact of the government shutdown on the monthly October labor data.
For last year’s October 2013 headline payroll-employment survey, the shutdown’s impact generally was guesstimated by the BLS, but it was not reflected in the headline reporting of the time. For the headline unemployment and employment detail, some government employees were counted among the unemployed as being on temporary lay-off, some were just counted as employed but absent from work. Where the headline employed dropped by 735,000, unemployed only rose by 17,000 in October 2013 (see Commentary No. 572 and Commentary No. 580 for the analysis of the time). Where all government employees should have returned to work by the November 2013 reporting, the headline employed rose by 818,000, the unemployed dropped by 365,000.