Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
John Williams shares the following with us.
- Revisions to Unemployment Seasonal-Adjustments Demonstrated Concurrent-Seasonal-Factor Reporting Issues
- Payroll and Unemployment Data Both Heavily Skewed by Unstable and Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustments
- December Unemployment Rates: 5.6% (U.3), 11.2% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
- Annual Money Supply M3 Growth Jumped to 5.2% in December, Highest Since July 2009
“No. 686: December Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3″
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Energy (fracking) and auto OTC subprime derivatives. Now there is a natural pair to destroy what is left of the American Dream
Here They Go Again—-Subprime Delinquencies Rising In Autoland
by David Stockman • January 9, 2015
Yesterday’s WSJ article on rising auto loan delinquencies had a familiar ring. It focused on sub-prime borrowers who were missing payments within a few months of the vehicle purchase. Needless to say, that’s exactly the manner in which early signs of the subprime mortgage crisis appeared in late 2006 and early 2007.
More than 8.4% of borrowers with weak credit scores who took out loans in the first quarter of 2014 had missed payments by November, according to the Moody’s analysis of Equifax credit-reporting data. That was the highest level since 2008, when early delinquencies for subprime borrowers rose above 9%.
To be sure, subprime auto will never have the sweeping impact that came from the mortgage crisis. The entire auto loan market is less than $1 trillion compared to a mortgage market of more than $10 trillion at the time of the crisis.
Yet the salient point is the same.The apparent macro-economic recovery and prosperity of 2004-2008 rested on the illusion of an unsustainable debt fueled housing boom; this time its the auto sector.
Indeed, delete the auto sector from the phony 5% GDP SAAR of Q3 2014 and you get an economy inching forward on its own capitalist hind legs. Q3 real GDP less motor vehicles was up just 2.3% from the prior year (LTM); and that’s the same LTM rate as recorded in Q3 2013, and slightly lower than the 2.4% growth rate posted in Q3 2012.
Aside from autos, there has been no acceleration, no escape velocity. Furthermore, the 2%+/- growth in the 94% balance of the economy after the 2008-09 plunge has nothing to do with the Fed’s maniacal money printing stimulus and the booster shot from cheap credit that is supposed to provide.
The reason is straight forward. There is no such thing as Keynesian monetary magic. Central bank interest rate repression either encourages households to supplement income based spending with incremental borrowings— or it has no direct impact on measured GDP.
The fact is, outside of autos and student loans, households have reached peak debt. That is after a 30-year spree of getting deeper and deeper into hock, middle class households stopped adding to leverage on their wage and salary incomes at the time of the financial crisis; and since then they have actually deleveraged slightly—albeit at levels that are still way off the historical charts.
Oil Derivatives Explosion Double 2008 Sub-Prime Crisis-David Morgan
By Greg Hunter On January 7, 2015
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
Precious metals expert David Morgan says the plunge in oil prices is not good news for big Wall Street banks. Morgan explains, “The amount of debt that is carried by the fracking industry at large is about double what the sub-prime was in the real estate fiasco in 2008. In summary, we’re looking at an explosion in potential that is greater than the sub-prime market of 2008 because, number one, oil and energy are the most important sectors out there. Number two, the derivative exposure is at least double what it was in 2008. Number three, the banking sector is really more fragile . . . and we have less ability to weather the storm.”
Morgan, who is also “a big-picture macroeconomist,” says oil derivatives could take down the system just like mortgage-backed securities back in the last financial meltdown. The Fed said the sub-prime crisis would be “contained.” It was not. So, could oil derivatives take down other derivatives in a daisy chain type of collapse? Morgan says, “Absolutely, there is no question about it. The main problem is the overleverage of the system as a whole. Warren Buffett calls derivatives weapons of financial mass destruction, which is a true statement. Secondly, look at how derivatives are interconnected. Derivatives can tie a financial instrument to another financial instrument or a financial derivative can be tied to an oil derivative. This is just a flavor of how complicated these mathematical equations really are, and no one really knows the risk in them.” So, underwater oil derivatives in one bank could bring down the financial system? Morgan says, “Absolutely, because it is all tied together, all the banks are interconnected.”
So, if the oil sector unraveled, what would happen to gold and silver prices? Morgan thinks, “Gold, I am pretty sure, would maintain right where it’s at, and that would be the worst case scenario, or it would go up and go up rapidly. Gold and silver may go down temporarily like we saw in 2008, but they will catch a bottom and come up. Silver in a deflationary environment has not done that well in the past. . . . Gold and silver are crisis hedges. People will say I don’t know what is happening. I’m scared. I need something I can trust. You can trust money that has been money for 5,000 years. That’s something you can trust. . . . You can’t escape the truth. The truth wins out in the end. We are getting to that point, an inflection point. I think gold will go up, and I think silver would follow and probably go up more rapidly once people caught on there is uncertainty. There is an unbelievable lack of trust in the system. People need something they can trust. Physical gold and silver is something you can trust, and it’s been that way for thousands of years. People aren’t that stupid, they understand that.” Morgan goes on to say, “I am not implying this is going to unravel tomorrow. I think it’s going to take a longer time frame than you might expect. I really think it’s going to take four or five months from now. I am thinking May or June before you start looking for the repercussions of this sub $50 (per barrel) oil.”