Posted at 3:11 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Counselling Trump on anything that is not an answer to a question from him in public could end up with the announcement,”You are FIRED.”

I heard Yra Harris might be available for a return to the “Chairman.” The only problem is Yra would do the correct thing, not the political thing.

Yellen who unfortunately ended up the Bag Lady for the two previous Fed Chairman is trying to hand the bag off to Trump even before he is officially President. Let’s see if he how he blocks this thrust. I suspect a spin and kick.

Jim/Bill,

Yellen essentially states that front running an economic resurgence and its accompanying inflationary impact is the right course of action.

I assume she is now a soothsayer or oracle, peering into the future with the wisdom of the ages. We all knew, since childhood, that “assume” means making an ASS out of U and ME.

The problem here is that such foresight hasn’t been reliable in the past. The Fed had assumed massive QE would bring about an economic rebirth……it hasn’t.

“With the U.S. close to full employment, Yellen counseled Trump and the Republican-led Congress to be cautious in loosening fiscal policy through big tax cuts and spending increases.

Some other Fed officials have said they would expect to raise interest rates faster than otherwise planned if Congress provided more fiscal stimulus to the economy.”

But, she prefers to have corporations focus on productivity growth.

What’s that? Cutting staff, encouraging automation thereby eliminating jobs and lowering costs, utilizing fewer services from purveyors, and turning away from the banks’ lending function?

“She urged the new president and lawmakers to focus their efforts on steps that would increase productivity growth, which she said has been “exceptionally slow” and which is critical to the long-term vibrancy of the economy.”

I don’t know, I’m just a simply guy. I’m not an economist. But “Productivity” appears to be related to decreasing personnel, decreasing materials used, use of less capital and energy; all having a deflationary impact on the economy.

PRODUCTIVITY:

A measure of the efficiency of a person, machine, factory, system, etc., in converting inputs into useful outputs.

Productivity is computed by dividing average output per period by the total costs incurred or resources (capital, energy, material, personnel) consumed in that period.

I’m sure her intentions are legit and reasonable on the surface, in an academic way. But we’ve been mired in an economic recession for almost ten years. Something $10 trillion in QE couldn’t reverse.

Now that we may get a slight and in my opinion, temporary, blip in economic indicators, she tightens the screws.

Give the economy a fighting chance for survival before starving it off at the get go.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Yellen Signals Fed Won’t Be Cowed After Trump’s Election Victory
November 17, 2016

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled that the central bank wasn’t about to roll over in the face of Donald Trump’s surprise election victory last week.

She told lawmakers on Thursday that she intends to stay in the job until her term expires in January 2018 while extolling the virtues of the Fed’s independence from political interference.

She also defended financial regulations that the president-elect has attacked and cautioned both him and Congress against providing the economy with too much of a budgetary boost at a time when the Fed was already on course to raise interest rates.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Compliments of GG at Silver Arrow partners

Italy’s Crisis Turns into a Multi-Headed Hydra
November 20, 2016

Bank stocks have surged just about everywhere since Trump’s election, with one exception: Italy. In the last month only one large Italian bank has seen its shares rise, and that’s the 500-year old bank at the center of Italy’s banking crisis, Monte dei Paschi di Siena, whose nearly worthless shares jumped to €0.24.

All the Wrong Signals

Shares of Italy’s other large banks have suffered heavy losses. Over the past week alone, shares of Italy’s largest bank, Unicredit, plunged 15%, as did the shares of Banca Popular and UBI Banca. Shares of Italy’s second largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, fell just under 10%.

The recent losses compound what’s been a miserable year for Italy’s banking stocks. The best performing stock is the investment bank Mediobanca, which is down a mere 24% for 2016. During the same period, Unicredit has shed over 60%, UBI Banca 65%, Banco Popolare 80%, and Monte dei Paschi 85%.

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Posted at 3:13 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

This is an excellent read and very well done!

CIVIL WAR II – FOURTH TURNING INTENSIFYING (PART I)
November 16, 2016

As we enter the final stretch of this vitriolic, deplorable, venomous, propaganda saturated, deceitful, rigged presidential election spectacle, it becomes painfully obvious this Fourth Turning is careening toward bloodshed, bedlam, confrontation, and civil war. The linear fixated establishment, who fancy themselves intellectually superior to the irredemables, are too blinded by their sociopathic, increasingly audacious subversion of the Constitution, to grasp the level of rage and disillusionment of a white working class that has been screwed over for decades.

As the Wall Street shysters frantically accelerate their embezzlement of what remains of middle class wealth, with the Fed and the corporate media propagandists as their wing-men, the country devolves into a corporate fascist state. The disposition of the nation grows dark like the sky before an approaching deadly blizzard. As passions boil over and violence portends, this Fourth Turning hastens towards a bloody decade ahead with an uncertain climax.

If you think this is just hyperbole, you either haven’t studied history or your cognitive dissonance and normalcy bias prevent you from seeing the unavoidable societal altering clashes, which occur like clockwork on an eighty year cycle, when the portents are right in front of your eyes. Historian Arnold Toynbee’s great war cycle that arise every 80 years or so, aligns perfectly with the Fourth Turning generational theory. Great wars occur when the generation that doesn’t remember the last catastrophic war ascends to leadership of the country.

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Posted at 11:15 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Think of India and then think of the recent various paper gold schemes over there.

Trump Will Grow US Debt Exponentially
November 18, 2016

There is a total misunderstanding of the role of gold and why it is so critical to own physical gold. Gold should not be bought or sold based on rumours or events. In connection with the US election, gold moved for totally the wrong reasons.

The whole Western world had forecast a Clinton victory. The Western media, which does no analysis but only reports what they are fed, spent no time trying to understand what the mood of the people was. It was exactly the same with Brexit. The elite in London, New York and the big metropolitan areas has totally different objectives to ordinary people.

Change in public mood

The trend change in public reaction, which we are seeing now, is not just a temporary phenomenon. Ordinary people are tired of a small elite of bankers, industrialists and politicians helping themselves to unlimited power and wealth whilst normal people are just getting poorer with lower incomes and more debt. And it is the masses which ultimately are responsible for repaying debt which is increasing exponentially in most countries. They will of course not repay the debt because they can’t. Instead, they will suffer immeasurably when global debt of around $250 trillion implodes leading to a severe depression. The gap between the rich and the poor in the West is wider than ever. In the US, the top 0.1% have 22% of total wealth. US top professionals have had an increase in real pay of 51% since 1973 whilst normal workers have seen a reduction of 4.6%. This is a very dangerous trend and when the economic downturn comes, it is likely to lead to violent protests and social unrest.

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Posted at 5:04 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

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Dear CIGAs,

What the heck is happening to markets all over the world?

The answer to this is … there are no markets. There are no legitimate markets from bonds to Gold.

Computers are trading with computers and that is all there is. These computer run markets are virtual markets and that is all there is. The computer run markets create prices which are so virtual that there its no depth to any market anywhere on anything. Volatility goes wild as computers overtake markets. Central banks, lacking no practical tools, are pushing the panic button.

Today, the Japanese bond market clearly over ran their control protocols and breached established parameters. A strong close at 3% or higher on United States ten year bonds could cause a leap in rates due to the fact that there are few real position takers. This is the result of central banks creating artificial market rates which are so low they are an insult to an investor’s understanding of market fundamentals.

All of the central banks of the industrialized world have stepped out onto thin ice and unknown territory where there is no place to safely move and no room to breathe. This is the bomb that could detonate in any or all markets at any time.

Gold is trading in India just below $3,000 USD. This could have been caused by a mistake between the central banks of India and the US Federal Reserve. This mistake is devastating for India economy while the best advertisement gold has ever had.

Bonds markets are doing strange things in the EU because of illiquidity and factors in the Euro/dollar market which are independent of all other considerations.

Stock markets have made record highs on no volume so once again illiquidity is raising its very dangerous head.

We will go into more detail on all of these points but for now, I urge you to do the following to the degree possible:

Hold your precious metals positions and remain calm.

Eliminate all or as much margin (credit) in anything, anywhere.

Have a least a month worth of cash at home.

Put all your securities into direct registration (DRS).

Do the basics of my recent articles on being prepared.

Situations may become more difficult but we can Be Prepared.

Jim

Posted at 4:14 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim/Bill,

Shout it from the rooftops……

If a Central Bank can’t produce an audited report of the serial numbers of its gold bars, then it’s gold holdings don’t exist!

I can’t believe the financial community is that gullible!

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

European Central Bank gold reserves held across 5 locations. ECB will not disclose Gold Bar List.
November 17, 2016

The European Central Bank (ECB), creator of the Euro, currently claims to hold 504.8 tonnes of gold reserves. These gold holdings are reflected on the ECB balance sheet and arose from transfers made to the ECB by Euro member national central banks, mainly in January 1999 at the birth of the Euro. As of the end of December 2015, these ECB gold reserves were valued on the ECB balance sheet at market prices and amounted to €15.79 billion.

The ECB very recently confirmed to BullionStar that its gold reserves are stored across 5 international locations. However, the ECB also confirmed that it does not physically audit its gold, nor will it divulge a bar list / weight list of these gold bar holdings.

Questions and Answers

BullionStar recently put a number of questions to the European Central Bank about the ECB’s gold holdings. The ECB Communications Directorate replied to these questions with answers that appear to include a number of facts about the ECB gold reserves which have not previously been published. The questions put to the ECB and its responses are listed below (underlining added):

Question 1: “The 2015 ECB Annual Report states that as at 31 December 2015, the ECB held 16,229,522 ounces of fine gold equivalent to 504.8 tonnes of gold. Given that the ECB gold holdings arose from transfers by the respective member central banks, could you confirm the storage locations in which this ECB gold is currently held (for example at the Bank of England etc), and the percentage breakdown of amount stored per storage location.

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Posted at 12:11 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

This essay is especially relevant and of great importance now.

Jim

Notes From Underground: The Answer Is, “We’ll See”
November 10, 2016

The experts are out with more ridiculous forecasts about the Trump victory and what it means for the various aspects of the financial markets. But let me toot my own horn for a moment: The trading outcomes for a Trump victory were on target, except for the dollar rally sustaining itself, but that is something I will be analyzing as we go forward. It amazes me how the media rushes back to the same forecasters who have so badly predicted many of the major political outcomes of the last two years. An important book for my readers is Tetlock’s “Superforecasting,” which makes a very powerful argument about following the experts.

But the movement in the STEEPENERS has been “breathtaking.” I want to go on record as saying I disagree with Stan Druckenmiller’s long-term view on the GOLD. This now becomes GOLD versus all fiat currencies so LONG GOLD versus yen, euro, Swiss and anything else as the central banks have started down a dangerous path since the ECB, BOJ and BOE continue on the road of large-scale asset purchases, or QE. The only way this trade will turn is if SHORT-TERM RATES GO TO REAL YIELDS ON THE SHORT END OF THE CURVE. CURVE STEEPENERS WILL NOT HURT ASSETS BECAUSE THEY WILL BE FUNDED WITH ULTRA CHEAP SHORT TERM BORROWING.

There are many things afoot in the global financial world as politics becomes the center piece of financial decisions. We have the Italian referendum on December 4, the FOMC mid-month and the coming French elections. So many moving parts, and, of course we have the actual economic data, which has been tepid around the world. The Trump headwind will give the FED an excuse to keep rates on hold as Yellen and Brainard seek to be on guard to see to it that WAGES run hot.

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Posted at 1:05 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Now, can you imagine where this country would be in 4 years had not “We the People” risen up? It will not be a bed of roses from here by any stretch because the debt is carved in stone, but as I wrote immediately after the election …”it was a vote FOR or AGAINST the RULE OF LAW!” These are the “tolerant” ones?!

From ‘Rape Melania’ To Mocking Violent Beat Downs Of White People, The Extreme Cruelty And Mental Illness Of The Left Has No Place In A Civilized Society
November 15, 2016

It’s now obvious to nearly every reasonable person that the cruelty, lawlessness and mental illness being demonstrated by those on the political left has no place in a civilized nation.

Not only did America-hating leftists carry a RAPE MELANIA sign to an anti-Trump protest, they made the hashtag #RapeMelania go viral on Twitter, where the leftist tech corporation allowed it to reach the top of its trending hashtag chart.

Yes, the same Twitter that banned numerous accounts of people who criticized Hillary Clinton’s health problems openly allowed users to share the “rape Melania” hashtag. Obviously, this is because people on the left are so compassionate about women, right? Sure it is…

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