Posted at 3:32 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

Please note conclusion number one on the recent employment figures.

- Any FOMC Rate-Boost “Certainty’ Resulting from October Jobs Reporting, Remains More Hype than Reality, with Meaningfully-Weak Data Ahead
- Except for Even-Softer September Annual Growth, in Revision, October Payroll Growth Was at a 17-Month Low
- Unusual, Unstable and Invisible Shifts in Seasonal Factors Helped to Boost or Skew Headline Payrolls
- Headline Decline in Unemployment from 5.1% to 5.0% Was a Decline from 5.05% to 5.04%
- October 2015 Unemployment: 5.0% (U.3), 9.8% (U.6), 22.8% (ShadowStats)
- Broad Annual Money Supply Growth Continued to Slow

“No. 765: October Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 ”

Posted at 10:31 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is a very strange foundation which would have to have been the foundation for the employment numbers this morning.

- Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Was Worst Since 2007
- Full Reporting of September Trade Detail Indicated a Greater Hit to GDP, Suggesting a Negative Third-Quarter GDP Revision
- Third-Quarter Real Construction Spending Growth Slowed Sharply
- Consumer Outlook Falters Along with a Declining Economy and Increasingly Volatile and Negative Financial Markets
- With Time Running Out on the Dollar, Who Is Going to Buy the U.S. Treasuries?

“No. 764: September Trade Deficit, Construction Spending”


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What goes unnoticed by MSM could well be all we need to know.

Is Iran Opening A “Secret Passage” To Asia For Russian Crude?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/05/2015 21:30 -0500

Submitted by Dave Forest via,

Russia is looking to expand its influence through oil trade. And a little-reported deal this week may give it access to an entirely new part of the planet when it comes to crude exports.

That’s the Persian Gulf. Where reports suggest Russia is close to negotiating a “secret passage” for its oil shipments.

The move is coming through a deal with Iran, which that government says could open the door for crude oil swaps between the two countries — facilitating exports of “Russian” oil out into Asia and beyond.

Iran’s Deputy Petroleum Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia told local press Monday that Russian energy company representatives will be arriving in Iran this week to discuss such a swap deal.

Here’s how it would work.

Russia lacks access to ocean shipping routes beyond the Pacific and Arctic. Iran has better access, through its ports on the Persian Gulf.

But Russia does have ports on the Caspian Sea. And as the map below shows, that provides a short shipping route into Iran.


Russia and Iran can exchange crude oil shipments along the Caspian Sea

The swap scheme would see Russian crude oil sent to Iran, in exchange for equal shipments of Iranian crude flowing to Russia.

And from there, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Officials said that Russian oil would likely be used within Iran’s northern provinces. But the swaps agreement opens up another possibility — Russian crude could be sent further south, and even exported through Persian Gulf ports.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It has been legal under British Law since 1845.

Warning: The BRRD Directive, Meaning Drawing Off Bank Accounts, Is Now Legal in France
Published Oct 29, 2015

The European Commission announced last Thursday it was going to sue before the European Court of Justice six European countries that have still not integrated into their national rights the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRDD). This directive allows a bank going bankrupt to solicit its shareholders first (which makes sense), then the holders of bonds issued by the bank (also makes sense), and if this isn’t enough – here comes the crunch – its clients’ accounts, which amounts to legal robbery, the calling into question of the right of ownership, and a real scandal. Normally only accounts above 100,000 euro may be used for a bailout, but this guarantee is an illusion, and all savers will be touched, of course, as we’ve explained recently.

The six countries are the Czech Republic, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Sweden. Hey, France is not on the list! It is because this integration has already happened, but not before the National Assembly and the Senate, which would have been good publicity for the saver/citizen, but not so much for the banking lobby and the government. No, this happened discreetly through a decree in the middle of the summer vacations, on August 20.

Everyone must now be made aware that if a bank goes bankrupt, it will have the legal right to bail itself out by taking money out of your account, whether it’s in France or, very soon, in all European countries.

One may wonder why the European Commission is so quick on the button in pushing for the adoption of this directive and going after the late compliers, as “it is extremely important that these rules be in place in all member countries,” it said in a statement. There are not too many trials going on at the European Court of Justice and several other directives are still not implemented in such and such country… Could it be that some well-informed people in Brussels are worried about the next financial and banking crisis?

The saver must, by all means, inquire about the financial solidity of his/her bank, even though this information is difficult to obtain, and more fundamentally, reflect upon the justification for putting all of one’s money in bank accounts. Now, more than ever, doing so is risky. There are alternatives, and the best of them is physical gold stored outside the banking system, as GoldBroker followers know very well. In any case, when the next banking crisis hits, the savers will be on the first line and they will lose a lot of money… and all of this will be legal.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Egon von Greyerz hits the ground running and once again hits the nail on the head. He explains the bank’s willingness to indebt all the citizens of the world to extremes while watching the world explode to $100,000 gold.

This will send the army of gold and gold share trolls wild.

WARNING: Prepare For The Total Destruction Of The Financial System And $100,000 – $100 Million Gold
November 01, 2015

Today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events warned King World News that people need to prepare for the total destruction of the current financial system and $100,000 – $100 million gold.

By Egon von Greyerz, Founder of Matterhorn Asset Management & GoldSwitzerland
November 2 – (King World News) – How long can a bull fed on paper money survive?

It seems that a bull fed on paper money has eternal life. Whatever the news is, worldwide stock markets react positively. It takes a long time to kill off a secular bull even if it has the wrong diet.


Central banks have no policy

This past week stock markets surged on the news that more QE is likely from the ECB and also from China. But the news from the Fed was again another U-turn, with potential rate hike in December. As I have stated many times, neither the Fed nor any other central bank has got a clue what is happening. They continue to react to events and will change their mind on a daily basis. There is absolutely no central bank policy whatsoever…


Posted at 10:07 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


GOTS. That’s all I have to say.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

If This Doesn’t Convince You to Exit the Global Banking System, Then Absolutely Nothing Will
Submitted by smartknowledgeu on 11/06/2015

Today, bankers all around the world are making it more and more difficult to withdraw more than $3000 or €3000 per day, and simultaneously making it impossible to pay for, in cash, any item with a price tag in excess of these levels.

Though most people are not questioning why this is, this global banker movement to ban all cash transactions should be interpreted as a clear and present danger to the purchasing power of everyone’s lifetime of accumulated savings.

If you’re still not convinced, then think about what the Carbanak theft of $1 billion from global banks truly means. If we investigated how this hacking group accomplished their theft, we would discover that, at times, they even hacked into bank servers to create currencies out of thin air before transferring this newly created currency to themselves.

The fact that these hackers could create currency that did not even exist on the bank’s books and then steal it should compel all of us to ask ourselves, “Do we really want to hold the earnings of our cumulative lifetime of labor in digital currencies that have intrinsic values of nearly nothing?”




Some snippets from the article that simply don’t make sense.

- The burst of hiring across a range of industries came as companies shrugged off slower overseas growth and a weak U.S manufacturing sector.

(Since when do companies shrug off lower growth and weakness?)

- Hiring flagged amid financial turmoil in China and faltering economies in Europe and many emerging markets. Yet American consumers have kept spending at a healthy pace, supporting strong job growth even as factory payrolls were flat last month and oil and gas drillers cut jobs.

(Factory payrolls flat? Yet burst of hiring? Which is it, pray tell?)

- Overall, services firms expanded last month at the fastest pace in three months. That’s in sharp contrast to the ISM’s survey of manufacturing firms, which barely grew in October

(Conflicting statistical reports are no cause for jubilation!)

- U.S. hiring roared back in October after two weak months

(One month makes a trend?)

This is far from over.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Burst of hiring: US employers added 271,000 jobs in October

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. hiring roared back in October after two weak months, with employers adding a robust 271,000 jobs, the most since December. The unemployment rate dipped to a fresh seven-year low of 5 percent.


Posted at 2:59 AM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

After writing my last piece regarding Martin Armstrong I thought that would be enough, it wasn’t. A reader replied and forwarded this recent article by Mr. Armstrong “Did Gold Survive the Depression? Please read this short article twice before continuing to my commentary. I had to read this twice myself because the first time through I kept saying “Huh?”, the second time through all I could say is “WHAT???”!

OK, let’s start with a most ridiculous statement, one patently false and a revision of history …”You are doomed if you cling to the idea that gold will rise simply because stocks decline. Gold was DEVALUED in 1934 since gold was MONEY. What it could purchase for $20.67 then cost $35. The government confiscated gold and moved to a TWO-TIER monetary system with gold used exclusively for international settlements, not domestic.” Gold was NOT “devalued”, it was “revalued” higher versus the dollar. Another way to say this is “the dollar was devalued versus gold”. This is fact. He then said “what it could purchase for $20.67 then cost $35″. Really Martin? Don’t you mean the $20.67 that used to be required to purchase one ounce of gold then cost $35 or about 70% MORE DOLLARS!???

The crux of the rest of his article is “gold is not money”, he claims dollars are money. He defines money as: “MONEY is solely what another will accept because they know someone else will accept it from them. You cannot dictate to the world what you think should be money”. He goes on to say “They refuse to understand that MONEY is just a unit or account and a medium of exchange that everyone must agree on”. …um no Martin, you just described “currency”, NOT money! You also forgot another minor point (of many), MONEY MUST BE FIRST AND FOREMOST A STORE OF VALUE!!!

In case you were wondering Martin, even the BIS considers gold to be “money”. In fact, gold is considered to be tier one capital on the balance sheet of central banks and banks in general. You can even ask Alan Greenspan this question whether gold is money or not. He has already answered “during a time of stress, gold is THE ULTIMATE form of settlement” (MONEY)! Or, ask the Chinese if gold is money? They are not importing the worlds entire global production to make solid gold toilets or bathtubs. They know gold is and always has been money. If they preferred dollars instead of gold then why are they not selling gold and securely storing dollar bills?

Lastly he says “Did gold rally because of fiat? No. Gold rallied because the banking system was collapsing. These people kept buying gold, swearing QE1-3 was inflationary, and lost all the way down because they failed to comprehend that this is not a battle against fiat.” The term “QE” (quantitative easing) IS in fact synonymous with monetization of debt. This is also fact. In order to HIDE this fact, gold price has necessarily been suppressed. If you look at the graph below, it shows 293 paper contract gold ounces are now outstanding versus each real gold ounce held in COMEX registered inventories. How is this explained Mr. Armstrong? This is not manipulation? Is this not the reverse of the manipulation you were squealing about when you were short silver while Warren Buffett was buying?


…I might add, this is exactly what a chart of gold would look like were it not for millions of fake and nonexistent gold ounces being sold to suppress the price!

To finish, Martin Armstrong “talks (writes) down” to his readers and in particular hard money advocates. In this instance he is just plain wrong no matter how much of a historian he believes himself to be. I asked the question yesterday whether part of his release deal was to “talk the federal mantra” regarding gold. He is clearly not representing history correctly and certainly a logic apologist when it comes to his denial of manipulation. In my opinion, I would say he is either “A Tool? A Fool? …or rewriting history?

Let me put it this way, Martin Armstrong is either disingenuous (lying), completely wrong in his logic AND revising historical fact. I don’t know about you as a reader but as for me, if you lie to me, try to tell me 2+2=5 or tell me a story I know is incorrect, I no longer will even listen to what you have to say. This is where I now am with Martin Armstrong. I thought prior to reading his missive he was “certifiable”. Now I know he has “certified” himself in history …WRITTEN history that can now only be rewritten in his own grandiose mind!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome (especially from Armstrong trolls for comedy sake) [email protected]

Posted at 2:42 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


Some people take the easy way out, without thinking. They take their hard earned savings, buy “special of the day”, the FANG stocks… Facebook, Apple/Amazon, Netflix, and Google, and then run off to play.

After all, the talking heads on TV wouldn’t steer us wrong, would they?

However, there are still some of us that prefer to build a solid foundation for our future.

One built on gold and silver. Of course, we get ridiculed daily while the masses go out to play and laugh at us.


Like the childhood fable, The 3 Little Pigs, the end result will be the same.  We all know how that ended.


Well most of us. Some obviously haven’t heard this story and would be well advised to revisit their childhood.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Posted at 10:22 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This puppy’s name is Algo.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What nut came up with this act of pure insanity?

CIA, Saudis To Give “Select” Syrian Militants Weapons Capable Of Downing Commercial Airliners
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/05/2015 12:49 -0500

Wednesday brought a veritable smorgasbord of “new” information about the Russian passenger jet which fell out of the sky above the Sinai Peninsula last weekend.

First there was an audio recording from ISIS’ Egyptian affiliate reiterating that they did indeed “down” the plane. Next, the ISIS home office in Raqqa (or Langley or Hollywood) released a video of five guys sitting in the front yard congratulating their Egyptian “brothers” on the accomplishment.


Then the UK grounded air traffic from Sharm el-Sheikh noting that the plane “may well” have had an “explosive device” on board.

Finally, US media lit up with reports that according to American “intelligence” sources, ISIS was probably responsible for the crash.


Over the course of the investigation, one question that’s continually come up is whether militants could have shot the plane down. Generally speaking, the contention that ISIS (or at least IS Sinai) has the technology and/or the expertise to shoot down a passenger jet flying at 31,000 feet has been discredited by “experts” and infrared satellite imagery.

But that’s nothing the CIA can’t fix.

With the Pentagon now set to deploy US ground troops to Syria (and indeed they may already be there, operating near Latakia no less), Washington is reportedly bolstering the supply lines to “moderate” anti-regime forces at the urging of (guess who) the Saudis and Erdogan.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There is a God.

Swift Guilty Verdict in Spoofing Trial May Fuel New Prosecutions in U.S.
Brian R Louis, and Janan Hanna
November 3, 2015 — 4:00 PM MST
Updated on November 3, 2015 — 8:27 PM MST

Commodities trader is first convicted under spoofing law

Prosecutors already seek extradition in Flash Crash case

The lightning fast guilty verdict against a high-speed commodities trader may embolden prosecutors who have gone on the offensive in a year of heightened regulatory scrutiny of spoofing.

Michael Coscia’s trial was the first use of an anti-spoofing law after the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act made it illegal to manipulate prices by placing orders without intending to trade on them. That law, which also provided an easier standard of proof to try cases, was put to test in Chicago federal court amid stepped-up civil enforcement by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The jury of eight men and four women deliberated for about an hour before finding the 53-year-old head of Panther Energy Trading LLC guilty on the spoofing charges. The trial was widely watched by lawyers and trading firms as a bellwether for future cases.

The verdict may prove influential as U.S. authorities pursue extradition of a U.K. trader accused of helping cause the 2010 flash crash and a lawsuit against a Chicago trader who was fined $660,000 for spoofing by three of the world’s largest futures markets. They too are accused of systematically placing orders they didn’t intend to execute to trick the market into thinking there was demand or supply that didn’t actually exist.

Expect more spoofing cases, said Michael Friedman, general counsel at Trillium Trading.

New Tool

“There’s going to be more of them,” said Friedman, who sees the verdict as showing it’s possible for jurors to distinguish spoofing schemes from regular market-making activity. “The CFTC has a new tool in its toolbox that it wasn’t sure worked. Now they know it works.”

Prosecution witnesses from two exchanges showed data on how large orders placed by Coscia were frequently canceled, while smaller orders he placed were canceled at a far lower rate. Those large orders were placed only to manipulate the market and move prices so Coscia could make money on the other side of the trade, prosecutors said. They claimed he made an illegal profit of about $1.4 million over three months in what they called a bait-and-switch scheme.



China Proposes Phasing-Out Manipulative Trading Algorithms – Jeff Nielson
By Jeff Nielson

Over the past decade; our markets have ceased to behave like “markets”, at all. We see obvious perversity, such as the simultaneous (and extreme) bubbles in U.S. stocks and bonds, something which is mathematically impossible in any legitimate marketplace.

More generally; we see what are supposed to be divergent stock markets (representing diverse, independent economies), diverse sectors, and diverse companies being marched up-and-down, collectively, like some gigantic, synchronized yo-yo. This is more impossible behavior – in legitimate markets.

Such insanity, and such extreme/impossible market phenomena are not confined to Western markets. Two weeks ago; blockbuster news emerged out of China, via Zero Hedge. China’s government is:

…seeking public opinion on limiting the use of automated trading programs in the stock market.

This initial news acquires even greater significance with the additional context provided by the China Securities Journal:

The stock market regulator said such automated systems could fuel market volatility and affect fairness.

It plans to tighten access and also review the mechanisms behind automated trading systems and would authorize stock exchanges to levy extra charges on such automated systems. [emphasis mine]

The first part of that excerpt is nothing more than stating the obvious. Computerized trading algorithms began (literally) “taking over” our markets roughly a decade ago. Today, these computer programs now account for roughly ¾ of all trading volume, dwarfing all human trading in what are (supposed to be) human markets.

Oceans of automated “stupid money”. Non-coincidentally, it is over precisely the same time-frame that we have seen “circuit-breakers” created in all of the world’s major markets. Then we’ve seen all those circuit-breakers tightened (again and again), as so called “HFT trading” became more and more dominant. Liquidity run amok.

Or is it “amok”?

In fact, as regular readers already know, evidence has emerged to strongly suggest that all this automated stupid money is a brute-force means of herding and controlling all our markets. In a lawsuit against the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, evidence was introduced allegedly showing that 50% of all trades at the CME were merely phony and illegal “wash trades”; pseudo-trades between the same entity. This amounts to roughly 100 phony/illegal trades per second, market-rigging which could only be perpetrated via computerized trading.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Who is it out there that maintains there is no manipulation in the gold and silver market and that people who think markets are manipulated all wear tin hats?

Probe Widens Into Treasury Debt Auctions
Justice Department and CFTC ask banks for information tied to government debt sales
By Aruna Viswanatha in Washington, and Justin Baer and Katy Burne in New York
Nov. 3, 2015 7:21 p.m. ET

Federal prosecutors and the top U.S. commodities regulator have asked banks to turn over information in connection with a broad probe into whether their traders rigged auctions on government debt, according to people familiar with the matter.

Banks are in the process of providing details to prosecutors at the Fraud Section at the Justice Department, as well as investigators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the people said.

The two agencies sent the requests this summer to many of the banks that serve as primary dealers, which are authorized to deal directly with the government on the sale of Treasury bonds, the people said. The list of primary dealers includes Goldman Sachs Group Inc., as well as other Wall Street banks and many of their biggest European and Asian counterparts.

There are 22 primary dealers, but it isn’t clear whether all of those firms received the requests.

Goldman appeared to reference the inquiries Tuesday in a regulatory filing. The firm noted that regulators were scrutinizing activities related to the offering and auction of various securities, as well as “when-issued trading,” a classification for bets dealers and traders place on the interest rate that will be offered by the government debt issued at auction a week later. The disclosures hadn’t appeared in Goldman’s previous quarterly filings. A representative for Goldman declined to comment.

The requests from the CFTC and Justice Department’s Fraud Section hasn’t been previously reported, nor has the fact that banks have begun to turn over information at the request of the two agencies.

In August, New York’s Department of Financial Services, the state’s banking regulator, sent its own information requests to nine large banks within its jurisdiction, The Wall Street Journal has reported.



There Are Now 293 Ounces Of Paper Gold For Every Ounce Of Physical As Comex Registered Gold Hits New Low
Tyler Durden on 11/04/2015 19:42 -0500

Unlike Bitcoin, which has doubled in the past few weeks (as the predicted Chinese buying onslaught indeed materialized), it hasn’t been a good week for spot gold prices which have tumbled from $1,180 to just over $1,100. While the reason for the selling is unknown, with recurring speculation that an imminent Fed rate hike will make holding gold even more unwelcome in real terms (if not in India where gold now pays interest on par with inflation), what we do know is that as of yesterday the total registered gold at the Comex had dropped to a fresh record low following another transfer of “registered” gold into “eligible.”


This reduced overnight the total amount of eligible gold by a third to just over 151,000 ounces, or under 5 tons as the zoomed in chart below shows.


And since the gold open interest continues to rise modestly…


… this means that as of today, the gold “coverage” ratio, or the amount of paper claims for every ounce of physical, has just hit a new all time high of 293 ounces of paper per ounce of registered physical.



After Topping $500, Bitcoin Is (Again) Plunging On Extreme Volume
Tyler Durden on 11/04/2015 22:25 -0500

It appears a double in a week has prompted – just as we saw yesterday – some more profit-taking in Bitcoin as after topping $500 earlier today, the virtual currency has plunged (considerably more than yesterday) to $368 in late US trading as a high volume selling program was unleashed on the virtual currency.


As we noted during yesterday’s plunge,

To be sure, there is nothing wrong with profit taking after such a parabolic move, however we were under the impression that the kind of furious block selling – which is intended to take out the entire bid stack and reprice an asset to a lower baseline – was reserved solely for gold, courtesy of the BIS.

It appears Virtu, or the NY Fed, may have finally noticed the dramatic surge in this alternative currency. What happens next will be up to the influx of new Chinese buyers who as we predicted two month ago when BTC was $230, have nearly doubled the value of bitcoin in two months in order to bypass China’s tightened capital controls.

*  *  *

However, someting else caught our eye.

While the recent rise (and rapid acceleration) in Bitcoin prices have become more mainstream since we suggested Chinese capital-control-fleeing money may find the virtual currency a useful conduit, something odd has been going on in fiat currency alternatives…

Before The Fed stopped its direct money-printing in October 2014, gold and bitcoin were highly correlated, perhaps rightfully reflecting the ebbs and flows of the USD’s reserve currency strength (or weakness) as well as various crisis moments. However, as the chart below shows, since the end of QE3, the correlation regime between gold and the virtual currency has entirely flipped – most notably in the last week or two…


Of course, these gold ‘prices’ merely reflect the machinations of various paper-promise-trading manipulators amid surging physical demand, but still, we noticed one interesting point of inflection.

Since the end of QE3, the relative price of gold has surged relative to bitcoin and now roundtripped to pre-QE3 levels…



Desperate-To-Hike Fed Admits “Inflation Is Not As Low As You Think”
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2015 21:13 -0500

Following this morning’s basic admission by Janet Yellen that “no matter what” The Fed is raising rates in December (which was then solemnly supported by an obedient Bill Dudley who “100% agrees with Yellen”), Fed Vice-Chair Stan Fischer, speaking tonight, reaffirmed this belief by, as we detailed previously, telling investors to ignore weak inflation. After San Fran Fed’s Williams admission that “there’s something going on here we don’t understand,” Fischer tonight admitted “US inflation is not as low as you think,” at once contradicting Yellen’s earlier comments and the various market-based measures, while confirming our previous detailed solving of the mystery of the hidden inflation.

Inflation Breakevens are collapsing…(longer-dated near record lows)


Inflation expectations are at a record low… and worse…



But all of that is wrong.. As Stan Fischer admitted tonight:





Wait, what!!??

Having now admitted that all of the above market-based (and survey-based) expectations (and current measures) of inflation are wrong, as we noted previously, depending on the importance of the credit channel, the Federal Reserve, by pegging the short term rate at zero, have essentially removed one recessionary market mechanism that used to efficiently clear excesses within the financial system.

While stability obsessed Keynesians on a quest to the permanent boom regard this as a positive development, the rest of us obviously understand that false stability breeds instability.



Initial Jobless Claims Jump Most In 8 Months As Energy Sector Layoffs Spike Back To 6-Month Highs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/05/2015 08:35 -0500

Just when you thought (for the 10th time this year) that the worst was over in the US energy space, Challenger Grey reports a massive spike in Energy sector layoffs – to six-month highs. For context, energy sector layoffs are 9 times higher in 2015 than 2014 and Texas – with 103,422 layoffs – is the worst state for job cuts (despite Dallas Fed Fisher’s previous insistence that the state is ‘diversified’). Despite the ongoing side in initial jobless claims, employers have announced 543,935 job cuts in 2015 so far, 31% higher than 2014.

Claims surged 16k in the last week – a 6.15% rise which is the most since February…


Is this the catch up?


It’s not over…


Led by a surge in Texas…


Posted at 11:36 AM (CST) by & filed under

China Could Reprice Gold to $100,000 per Ounce-Bill Holter

By Greg Hunter’s

Financial writer and gold expert Bill Holter contends China has enormous debt problems, but a very good plan B. Holter explains, “China used fiat debt to build real infrastructure, and when the system blows up, the fiat debt blows away and they are left with infrastructure. Do they have 20% bad loans? They very well could and probably do. If it is true that they are going to have a debt blow up, don’t forget China has been importing big tonnage of gold for years now. Over the last five years, they have imported 9,000 tons of gold. Their way out is the old way out. The old way out was to revalue gold higher. They could revalue gold and step up and say they will pay $50,000 or $100,000 per ounce for any and all ounces for sale. You can’t say there is not enough gold. What you can say is that it’s not priced correctly to support the system. If they have an implosion of debt which leaves their balance sheets impaired, the way to recapitalize the balance sheets is to revalue the price of gold higher. It creates capital, in other words.”

How about the U.S. debt problem? Holter says, “That does not and cannot work for the U.S. because we have offloaded our gold. Simple math tells you the gold that China received has to come from somewhere, and that only somewhere in the world is Western U.S. vaults.”

Could the U.S. still have its more than 8,000 tons of gold? Holter says, “That’s pure ‘hopium’ that the U.S. still has their gold. Common sense and logic tells you that the gold is gone.”

So, has the U.S. budget and debt ceiling deal fixed anything? Holter says, “If they didn’t raise the debt ceiling, there would have been an immediate implosion. You have to understand, Americans are the only people on earth that aren’t laughing at the debt ceiling. Foreigners are laughing at it. You are talking about $20 trillion. It can’t be paid. We are at 110% of GDP already, and we’re the reserve currency.”

Holter goes on to say, “It’s another bubble. It’s going to burst, and the banks are in worse condition now from a debt to equity standpoint. Nothing has changed–it’s just bigger.”

Holter worries about possible deals between Saudi Arabia and Russia that could impair the petro-dollar. Holter says, “The (dollar) dam is leaking, at this point, because there is less and less use of the dollars around the world. . . . If Saudi Arabia were to say we’ll accept euros, yuan or rubles for oil or if they said we won’t accept dollars anymore, that’s like pulling a center piece out of a dam. It will break, and it’s over for the dollar. They could do that, and they could get bombed back to the stone-age, but I am sure it’s been talked about.”

Holter says there is “no rule of law,” and criminal activity has suppressed the price of physical gold. Holter says, “We have been through a four year period of time where paper gold has been pounding the price of physical gold. You have people who were strong legged, hard money guys who are weak in the knees now, and they shouldn’t be. My hope is we can strengthen some weak knees, to not sell you only insurance in a financial Armageddon. It is mathematically coming. There is absolutely no possible exit with the system intact and the rule of law.”


Posted at 10:25 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Two pals.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mr Williams shares the following with us.

- Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Was Worst Since 2007
- Full Reporting of September Trade Detail Indicated a Greater Hit to GDP, Suggesting a Negative Third-Quarter GDP Revision
- Third-Quarter Real Construction Spending Growth Slowed Sharply
- Consumer Outlook Falters Along with a Declining Economy and Increasingly Volatile and Negative Financial Markets
- With Time Running Out on the Dollar, Who Is Going to Buy the U.S. Treasuries?

“No. 764: September Trade Deficit, Construction Spending”


German Opposition Party Warns, Nation Is “At The Edge Of Anarchy, Sliding Towards Civil War”
Tyler Durden on 11/04/2015 08:03 -0500

Germany now is somewhere at the edge of anarchy and sliding towards civil war, or to become a banana republic without any government, says Hansjoerg Mueller of the Alternative for Germany party.

In an interview after the call with, Hansjoerg Mueller highlights just how divided the nation is becoming…

RT: He says he’s going to send them to Berlin, but does he have the power?

Hansjoerg Mueller: The person who wants to send them to Berlin is Mr. Dreier. He is the district head of Landshut, a town close to Munich.Usually he does not have the power, but we are not living in usual times. What we are now looking at is more and more Germany sliding towards anarchy. In this situation I think less and less is determined by law, more and more is determined by who acts. And the person who acts in fact has the power. So if he sends … refugees to Berlin, he sends them!

Bavarian official Peter Dreier called German Chancellor Angela Merkel to tell her personally that if Germany welcomes a million refugees, his town of Landshut will only take in around 1,800.

Any extra will be put on buses and sent to her Chancellery in Berlin.

RT: Will threats like this one be able to affect Merkel’s policy?

HM: I hope so, because Germany now is somewhere at the edge of anarchy and sliding towards civil war, or to become a banana republic without any government. I hope that this threat will have some effect, but knowing the psychological things that Merkel does all these days – I don’t believe in it, unfortunately.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Assuming ADP has it right, the employment number this week is not going to be to pleasing.

ADP Employment Slows Further; Services Job Growth Weakens As Manufacturing Jobs Drop By 2,000
Tyler Durden on 11/04/2015 08:25 -0500

Having relatively disappointed all year, compared to 2014′s high levels, ADP for October printed 182k (practically in with expectations of 180k and below September’s revised lower 190k) – the lowest since July. Following September’s biggest manufacturing job losses since Jan 2010, October saw further losses (-2k) and Services job growth slowed as small business gains dominated large business (which ADP reports facing strong dollar challenges). December rate hike odds were 52.0% before ADP with no significant change yet.


Zoomed in:


Compared to NFP:


And by industry: