Posted at 1:18 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

If you ask Clif about the gold price, he might make me look too conservative.

Happy New Year

Jim

timetalks….
December 31, 2016

… Over $600 per ounce Silver…$20,000 DOW

This work and the publications known as the ALTA reports began in 1997 with the first data gathering operations.

From that time, until this very day, the data sets have always had a ‘DOW (over) $20,000′ values set in place.

This set was discussed in radio interviews in the early 2000s as there were other elements within these sets including my infamous ‘silver (to be) over $600 an ounce’ statements made through these decades. One needs grasp how rare it is for actual numbers to make it through the processing in order to appreciate the nature of the ‘$600 per ounce of silver’ statement within the data that has held stable for over 14 years of these reports. These sets may not have had any growth for months at a time, yet when next resumed, the data sets would still reinforce the link between $600 silver and $20,000 DOW. Both of these numbers were beyond ‘strange’, and completely into the world of ‘lunacy’ in the early 2000′s. As was evidenced by all the hilarity and abuse i received over the subsequent years for those statements.

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Clif’s Interview with Greg Hunter:

2017 Predictions on Trump, Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Bonds & Antarctica-Clif High
January 1, 2017

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Internet data mining expert Clif High says forget about the rumors and predictions of Donald Trump being blocked from taking office. High says Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President and explains, “I don’t have any data that says, hard stop, Trump is assassinated. I don’t have that . . . . I am willing to back my data with real money, an ounce of silver, and I have an ounce of silver, and I would be willing to bet the inauguration part goes through smoothly given the emotional data sets we have now.”

High, who calls what he does “Predictive Linguistics,” mines the internet and collects billions of data points to produce forecasts of the future. On the financial markets, High simply says, “We’re screwed. . . . The equity markets in our data sets are highly manipulated. So, if you ask will there be a crash? I say there already is a crash. Everybody that is not part of the financial system at the top end is currently living in a depression, and the media does not acknowledge this.”

On the U.S. dollar and its purchasing power, High predicts, “The purchasing power is going to be eroded away fairly quickly. I suspect the erosion (of the U.S. dollar) is going to start in March or so. . . . The turning point for the Trump euphoria will hit at the end of February and carry on through March and April. There will probably be people that will define this as a crash. . . . In our data sets, around March and April, the erosion of the dollar continues . . . The Fed, in a laggardly way, starts to chase interest rates. . . . We may jump to 9% or 10% interest rates as quickly as March or April.”

More…

Posted at 1:07 PM (CST) by & filed under USAWatchdog.com.

2017 Predictions on Trump, Gold, Silver, Housing, Stocks, Bonds & Antarctica-Clif High
January 1, 2017

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Internet data mining expert Clif High says forget about the rumors and predictions of Donald Trump being blocked from taking office. High says Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President and explains, “I don’t have any data that says, hard stop, Trump is assassinated. I don’t have that . . . . I am willing to back my data with real money, an ounce of silver, and I have an ounce of silver, and I would be willing to bet the inauguration part goes through smoothly given the emotional data sets we have now.”

High, who calls what he does “Predictive Linguistics,” mines the internet and collects billions of data points to produce forecasts of the future. On the financial markets, High simply says, “We’re screwed. . . . The equity markets in our data sets are highly manipulated. So, if you ask will there be a crash? I say there already is a crash. Everybody that is not part of the financial system at the top end is currently living in a depression, and the media does not acknowledge this.”

On the U.S. dollar and its purchasing power, High predicts, “The purchasing power is going to be eroded away fairly quickly. I suspect the erosion (of the U.S. dollar) is going to start in March or so. . . . The turning point for the Trump euphoria will hit at the end of February and carry on through March and April. There will probably be people that will define this as a crash. . . . In our data sets, around March and April, the erosion of the dollar continues . . . The Fed, in a laggardly way, starts to chase interest rates. . . . We may jump to 9% or 10% interest rates as quickly as March or April.”

More…

Posted at 5:31 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

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While I had not planned on writing until next week, current events warrant commentary. This past week has been an absolute embarrassment for the U.S. The actions taken by Mr. Obama are unprecedented for any outgoing president. Thousands of pages of executive orders, land grabs, multiple accusations against Russia and of course throwing Russian diplomats out and the placing of new sanctions.

It is crystal clear Obama is trying his best to sabotage Mr. Trump’s presidency, whether he starts World War III in the process is the obvious danger. The next three weeks may be the most dangerous three weeks in our planet’s history as the “launch codes” are in the hands of someone obviously not thinking correctly. Most all of the hurdles and traps being laid by Obama can be corrected, altered or abolished. I would imagine the easiest way to do this would be to investigate and prove that Obama is not a natural born citizen and thus never eligible to sit in the office of U.S. President. If this avenue is pursued (I truly hope it will be), anything signed by Obama’s pen would then be null and void. The ramifications could be far reaching and include all sorts of appointments including federal judges.

The one draconian act which cannot be reversed as I see it is the UN vote recognizing Palestinian land. The U.S. did not veto the vote which every previous president has done. I do not see a remedy for this as the vote was 14-0 with the U.S. abstaining and not using our veto power. This vote truly looks like it was brokered by Mr. Obama, one of his few well thought out dangerous acts. The situation with Israel and the Middle East will now be altered permanently unless I am missing something?

The question of whether Mr. Trump is a Trojan horse or not should be answered almost immediately after the inauguration. I personally believe (and truly hope) Mr. Trump is real and does care about the United States as a nation. One area I am skeptical of is Congress. It is not clear to me whether or not both houses will do what the American people put them in office to do. It is very possible the republicans try to obstruct Mr. Trump’s nationalist/populist policy with their own bought and paid for globalist policy. It is 100% clear to me the takedown of the U.S. (from within) has been the plan for many years. I do not believe Mr. Trump was any part of “the plan” but we will soon find out.

We may even find out on January 6th as Congress counts the electoral votes. They do have a Constitutional avenue to still rebuff the vote and make their own choice. I do not believe this will be done as riots will follow with Congressman hanging from lampposts across the nation. Rather, I do believe it’s a good possibility the republican Congress will be obstructionist in subtle if not outward ways.

Folks, do not let your guard down. The next three weeks are certainly scary, any number of false flags could be unleashed. At least the previous efforts to spread bogus news have not worked as the evidence has not existed and the American people (for the most part) have seen through it. These are unprecedented times in every fashion, the “normal” we as Americans used to know will unfortunately never return during our lifetimes. Stay focused, whether you know it or not yet, we are at war!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter

Holter-Sinclair collaboration

Comments welcome bholter@hotmail.com

Posted at 5:17 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Hi Jim,

I have had so many new people sign up for Warren Pollock’s interview notes for 12/28/16 that I am resending them. Here is a link to the notes for all: http://usawatchdog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/12-28-2016-USAWatchdog-Warren-Pollock-Research-Notes.pdf

Thank you all for your support.

Greg Hunter

Compliments of CIGA Gijsbert

ALERT: Major End Of The Year Update On The Gold Market
December 29, 2016

December 29 (King World News) – Annual momentum broke out finally and credibly as of the October close (84.90). MSA wanted more than the crossing of the downtrend, which arguably occurred earlier, but we wanted a monthly momentum chart close over the -20 level. October did that…

As a first working target for 2017 we expect to see BCOM reach 102-103 area before resistance perhaps halts the initial post-breakout surge, now underway. By no means are we arguing that “that’s it.” At around that level, especially early in the year we see enough temporary momentum barriers to assume resistance there and some reason to expect congestion, maybe pullback.

More…

Posted at 1:58 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

The world over is watching this mess to get a preview understanding of the immense damage and problems. On a positive note. Other nations can learn from the India experience and potentially avoid making similar mistakes. I’m amazed this Village Idiot still has his job and the attendant power. Some of our top analyst friends warned of capital controls years ago. They were right.

CIGA Roger

Replacing income tax with a banking tax would do the opposite of Modi’s stated goals. It will force much economic activity into the black/grey markets.

CIGA Craig

India Fears Run on Banks: Capital Controls and Withdrawal Limits to Continue
December 28, 2016

Indian banks are fearful of running out of cash as lines queue up to withdraw money.

Bankers say they cannot cope with any sudden increase in demand, and warn against lifting cash withdrawal limits.

A decision by New Delhi on November 8 to scrap all large-denomination banknotes overnight removed 86 per cent of India’s currency from circulation. In an effort to prevent banks running out of cash, the finance ministry then imposed strict limits on the amount of new notes that could be withdrawn. Customers can currently withdraw just Rs2,500 from an ATM per day — equivalent to $37 — or Rs24,000 over the counter per week.

“If the government lifts the limits on Friday and there is a sudden rush, banks will be totally dependent on the central bank to give them enough liquidity,” said Soumyajit Niyogi, associate director at India Ratings and Research. “The Reserve Bank of India has been giving assurances that it has enough cash but reports of how much currency there currently is in the system suggest this might not be the case.”

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Jim,

This reverse repo chart tells you there is something going on behind the scenes, the second highest level of reverse repos, which  means huge collateral is needed! It also might mean a lot of positions in the bond market are underwater.

CIGA Gijsbert

fredgraph_001

Posted at 10:14 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Update: Apparently the “holiday shopping story” is untrue (according to snopes?) so we apologize for posting it. A shame the details are not true because it is a heartwarming story for those who pine for the rule of law.  I should have known it was not true because our commandant in chief would have had the Marines court martialed.  So far the “fake news” police have not shown up in our driveway but we are on the lookout!

 

Holiday shopping?  Be careful, the curbs in Georgia are extraordinarily high!

Bill

ATT00010

Posted at 10:09 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

ECB tells Monte dei Paschi it needs to raise 8.8 billion euros– who do you think is responsible for the endless black hole, and why is the money of those responsible not confiscated?

CIGA Gijsbert

ECB Tells Monte Dei Paschi It Needs To Raise 8.8 Billion Euros
December 27, 2016

The European Central Bank has told Monte dei Paschi it needs to plug a capital shortfall of 8.8 billion euros (7 billion pounds), higher than a previous 5 billion euro gap estimated by the bank, the lender said on Monday, confirming what sources told Reuters.

Last Friday the Italian government approved a decree to bail out Monte dei Paschi (BMPS.MI) after Italy’s No. 3 lender failed to win investor backing for a desperately needed 5 billion euro capital increase.

The bank said on Monday it had officially asked the ECB last Friday for go ahead for a “precautionary recapitalisation”.

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Posted at 9:52 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

The end of one year and the beginning of another is always the time to reflect and look forward.  2016 was a tale of two separate years.  The first half (which followed the Fed’s rate hike) saw unsettled markets.  Equities around the world looked like they were unravelling in Jan. and early February.  Sovereign credit markets were generally firm while gold and silver took off like scalded dogs.

Then in the middle of the year, equities rebounded, interest rates started to rise while the gold and silver rallies were contained.  Interestingly, the mining shares which were at one point in May, up 150% ytd, are still up roughly 50% but have been crushed anew.  The second half and in particular the last quarter has seen interest rates all over the globe begin to rise fiercely.  I believe this is THE most important event of 2016, the end of a 35 year bull market in “credit”!

As we end the year, there is nearly no “RISK premium” anywhere to be found.  In fact, the mainstream explanation for higher rates is the “reflation” trade, I disagree.  I believe the higher interest rates are a function of liquidity tightness.  The old debt/growth leading to more debt/more growth circle has been broken because “debt saturation” levels have been reached.  The central banks are stuck as they have cornered too much collateral and are now being forced to look at other markets (including equities) to onload to their balance sheets.  Risk premium serves a very important purpose in “pricing” assets. Central banks have tried to negate this concept and have only created a scenario of “premium” nowhere and “risk” everywhere.  In a world with more debt and the worst debt ratios ever, risk is unaccounted for.

2016 also saw the rise of the populist movement.  We saw it in Britain, the U.S. and then Italy.  Globalism is in the process of being rebuked and will again be tested in France and Germany next year.  The movement has clearly gained traction as the globalist policies have not and are not working.  People can “feel” this and see it with their own eyes.

2016 may have been the tipping point, 2017 could very well be the year the tipping point is widely known and understood.  The French and German elections are slated, the validity of the “European Union” stands in the balance.  It will be quite interesting to see, should the EU begin to unravel what will happen with the ECB?  Who guarantees the ECB and what happens with their giant balance sheet?  Of course, the same questions need to be asked about the euro itself and how sovereign currencies will be reintroduced?

“Truth” was also a key topic in 2016 thanks to WikiLeaks.  Globalist propaganda “truth” versus the actual truth has come out into the open and become a battleground.  In fact, several nations are trying to “legislate” truth, the latest being Obama Quietly Signs The “Countering Disinformation And Propaganda Act” Into Law. This is obviously quite dangerous and sews the seeds of potential conflict.  The last quarter of 2016 saw some extremely interesting “truths” come out.  Some that we certainly already knew, some we could not even imagine.  What was interesting, nothing WikiLeaks put forth was denied, only their “methods” and thus the shots fired at messengers only.

It is hoped 2017 will be different and President elect does “drain the swamp”.  Many do not believe this will happen.  Many are either scared stiffless into their snowflake shelters while many others believe him to be a Trojan horse set in place to continue the pillaging.  I personally do not believe this, we will find out shortly after his arrival.  Either Mr. Trump is real or he is not.  If he is not, what we have lived with over the last many years will continue into a lawless hyperinflation.  It is with the assumption that Mr. Trump is real and truly a patriot that I will look at 2017.

First, I believe we will see some clues almost immediately as to whether Mr. Trump is real or not.  Who will he nominate to replace Justice Scalia?  Will he negate the many ridiculous (unconstitutional) executive orders?  How will Jeff Sessions proceed?  These are just a few questions but correct answers I believe will suffice to at least knowing the direction we are headed.

Maybe the following is wishful thinking, maybe not but I do believe 2017 has the potential to be the year of the truth bombs (plural)!  Interest rates have already risen and will begin to expose the over leveraged in a fashion often described by Warren Buffett as the “tide going out”.  We already see signs of this with various cities (Detroit, Chicago, Dallas), various states (Illinois, California, Puerto Rico), and even on a federal level.  Higher rates will undermine bond values and thus pension/retirement funds.  This is an ugly truth that will affect the general population and cannot be ignored.

The “rule of law” is another area.  No one was prosecuted after the 2008 debacle, will Wall St. finally be held accountable?  Will crooks go to jail or will it be smoothed over with monetary fines?  What about these firms who have already paid fines, will they be successfully sued in civil courts?  Will trustees be held accountable as pension plans/benefits fail?  What about election fraud?  Will there be investigations into cities who returned more votes for Hillary than were cast in total?  Will the Podesta e-mails be investigated for Clinton foundation tax fraud amongst other misdoings?  What about the pedophilia information, will this be a string they pull on or does it get a pass?  Banking is obviously another topic, how are the “insolvents” handled?  Will bail ins prevail in 2017 as per new legislation?

These are all tough questions and by no means totally inclusive as fraud prevails throughout every nook and cranny.  It is my belief we will see early on this coming year as to the “mechanics”.  One thought process to explore and likely in my opinion is a plan exists to dump it all on Mr. Trump.  In other words and as Jim has asked, “will the machine even operate for him or do they just shut down and let the roof cave in”?

Thinking this through, if the Trump administration does actually pull on a few threads, do they unravel the whole system?  If they don’t pull on various threads, will the “machine” (ESF) actually function for Trump?  I guess it boils down to whether or not he is “one of them”.  As stated, I do not believe he is “paid for” so it will be game over one way or another.  Either the administration digs under the wrong rock or the fuse is lit before he even takes office.

I have written and offered proof that we are past the point of no return financially.  The collapse is already carved in stone, higher rates will expedite the process.  The question as I saw the election is whether we would deal with the coming financial, economic and social ramifications under a true rule of law or not.  I suspect we will end 2017 “knowing” many things as “fact” that we only know in our gut now.  In fact, if I was asked advice for Mr. Trump, I would advise he contact John Williams and go to the American people with his findings.

If Mr. Trump was smart (and gave no fear for his life), he would go to the American people with “benchmark” revisions going back some 30 or more years.  Yes, the entire system will come down (as it will anyway) on his watch but coming clean is the best way to do it.  Show true inflation, growth and unemployment numbers …during each previous administration and where we are truly now!  This would be one heck of a truth bomb but the easiest way to avoid blame AND clear the slate to go forward.

To finish, yes there was much speculation and even “hope” in this writing.  But one thing is for sure, we will one way or another see more “truth” than we have for many years.  The truth will come because as Ricky used to tell Lucy, “you got a lot of ‘splaining to do”!

The conditions now exist that the “old truth” cannot be stretched any further, recent elections are proof the common man is no longer being fooled.  Whether they be internal, external, international, financial, economic, social and of course criminal, truths of all sorts will most likely circle the globe like a flock of black swans in 2017!

That will do it for the remainder of the week unless something big comes up and needs commentary.  We wish you a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous New Year!

Bill and Jim