Posted at 4:55 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

…IS GUARANTEED in my opinion!

Dear CIGAs,

I would not normally write something like this but it seems I had to. Last week, Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold wrote a story with the exact same title and came to the conclusion “…is zero”. He began his article by saying “So anyone telling you Comex is about to default either doesn’t have a clue as to how commodity markets work or they are deliberately lying to you.”

He then goes on to say “But the chance of a ‘Gold Derivatives Time Bomb,’ is also zero. There is no such thing. And there is no such thing as a ‘Commercial Signal Failure’ or a 400 ounce gold bar made of tungsten.” Is he serious? When well over 100 pieces of paper “call” on the one underlying real ounce …there is no chance of failure? Is he trying to say the commercials can NEVER ever be wrong and forced to cover because they cannot deliver “promised” but non existent gold? Is he trying to say 400 ounce tungsten bars have not already turned up? I do want to point out, this is the same man who said a derivatives blowup can never happen. I think those at Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers would beg to differ with him! We already know for a fact, we were only hours away from a total financial meltdown in 2008 were it not for the Fed magically creating $16 trillion. It is clear to me, since the amount of global derivatives far exceed the underlying assets they represent, true “settlement” or “performance” is a foregone impossibility as the “pie” only gets bigger. The only question now is “how big is TOO big”?

Let’s look at the numbers and use a little common sense to see “who doesn’t have a clue or is deliberately lying to you”! Currently in the COMEX gold and silver vaults we see there are roughly 17 tons of gold and 32 million ounces of silver “registered” (available for delivery). This amounts to about $680 million worth of gold and $540 million of silver. A whopping total of $1.2 billion or less than 1/2 day’s interest on the U.S. federal debt. In today’s world of “trillions and quadrillions”, this amounts to pocket change!

I put these registered inventories forth so we can have something to use as a base for comparison. Looking at silver, there are now 1 billion ounces represented by 200,000 COMEX contracts of various months. For May alone (which goes first notice day in five days) there are 280 million ounces represented by these paper contracts. By comparison, the world (excluding Chinese and Russian production) produces 700 million per year. So, we have a market with a claimed 32 million ounces that “prices” (for now) a market which produces 700 million ounces per year. This 32 million ounce inventory is the “guarantee” being used or promised to “deliver” on contracts (280 million ounces worth for May and 1 billion ounces in total) whose owners can decide they want delivery. If you look at other “commodity” markets, there are none as egregious as silver. Currently open interest represents 140+% of global production. In other words, the paper market is far larger than the real physical market. Not so in other commodities where the paper markets are typically 10-15% the size of global production.

Going one step further with this 32 million ounce inventory, we saw a 10 minute span on Thursday morning where 37.5 million ounces of silver were dumped all at once. The effect of course was nearly a $1 drop in price. This was done as silver looked to be breaking out pricewise to the upside, the massive dump was used to contain price. We saw this again on Friday when over 100 million ounces were dumped in just one hour. In perspective, Thursday’s dump equated to 19 days of total global production…sold in 10 minutes. Taking Thursday and Friday’s “70 minutes” together saw the equivalent of

2 1/2 months of global silver production sold. Again, who actually has this amount of silver and who in their right mind would ever sell it in this fashion to get the absolute worst price possible? …unless they WANTED the worst price possible? Taking a brief look at how inept the registered gold inventory is, Shanghai has been importing 30-40 tons per WEEK for several years now. How many “days” worth of Shanghai imports will COMEX’ 17 tons cover?

The above speaks to the woefully small registered inventories claimed by COMEX. From a mathematical standpoint, both silver and gold stocks could be wiped out in just one trade. Bob Moriarty says this does not matter and no default can ever happen because COMEX can settle in paper. I agree with his statement “COMEX can settle in paper” because it appears they have been doing this for years rather than delivering real metal to all of those standing. I do no have smoking gun proof of this but just ask yourself the question, WHO would fully fund their account in order to take delivery, wait until the very last days of the delivery period and then just “go away”? This happens time and time again, I believe it can only be explained by “cash premiums” being offered and paid. If you have another plausible explanation, I would love to hear it but by “plausible” I mean to say it must include real logic a true economic man would follow.

Now, is “cash settlement” because there is no gold or silver available to deliver … considered a default? According to Bob Moriarty the answer is “no”. I would simply ask you this, if COMEX can only settle in cash, then what is it exactly that you are trading? Of what value is a contract which cannot perform and deliver the product you are “supposedly” trading? It is for this reason I have said for many years we will end up seeing a two tiered market where there is one price for the paper derivatives of gold and silver …and another (higher) price for the real thing. In fact, we are already seeing the early stages of this with backwardation particularly in London.

To finish, until recently we were told that ALL markets were rigged EXCEPT for gold and silver. We were just nutjob conspiracy theorists to think gold and silver markets were rigged. But now we find out we weren’t nuts after Deutsche Bank admitted guilt and paid a fine for rigging the London fixes. The fine by the way was not small potatoes, it was $5 BILLION …(or roughly five times the dollar value of what COMEX claims to be able to deliver)!

I assure you Deutsche Bank did not hand over $5 billion out of the goodness of their hearts, nor did they take lightly “pleading guilty” as they will now be sued by the mining industry to the moon and back. Even more curious was their decision to turn state’s evidence? I certainly do not have the particulars but I can observe and connect the dots. The metals markets are acting very differently and the commercials (if COT numbers are to be believed) are extremely short while registered inventories are extremely low. Financial stresses in Western credit markets are again showing quite similar to 2008. Central banks have already fired interest rate/money supply bazookas …while sovereign treasuries far and wide have destroyed their balance sheets.

Would it be crazy to believe fear capital will flood into the ONLY MONIES ON THE PLANET that have neither counterparty risk nor are anyone else’s liability? Actually, from a mathematical standpoint, all of this global debt can ONLY be paid back if currencies are debased …which guarantees a flood into gold and silver. Would it be considered a “default” if the U.S. had to print so many dollars that it took 1 million of them to purchase a cup of coffee? In the situation where COMEX inventories get cleaned out, isn’t this the same thing as a bank in the old days “running out of gold”? That was considered default then but Moriarty wants you to believe it is “business as usual” today? Sorry, I don’t think so!

This has been a “public” article , should you desire to read all of my work, please follow this link to our subscription page

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome

Posted at 9:13 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear F,

The industry has been destroyed. This is first time there is an admission of guilt by the party involved. Up until now all these actions have been settled as neither are admitting nor denying guilt.

This now is an open door to drive through to get a ball rolling towards the real perpetrators of the horror.

Up to now the suits have been speculators that got cleaned out. The attorneys and aggrieved were idiots. No wonder in some cases their suits never got by Summary Judgement. They have been pleaded incorrectly and framed incorrectly.  They could have won big but have never recognized it.

Your above subject line sounds so appealing but it is what the banks pray will remain the method of our attack.

Nothing could be farther from the truth of how to tear down these destroyers who do it for fun and profit.

Respectfully yours,




It just doesn’t smell right.

The longer you are kept in the dark, the more susceptible you are.

With today’s technological progress and innovations, you would think DAILY reporting would be available.

We can assume the coming onslaught of poor earnings, due to a recessionary environment AND a stronger dollar, could devastate the market. Unless, of course, the results are keep secret for 6 months to a year; at least until the economy hopefully improves. Then, upbeat forecasts will dominate prices and poor earnings will be a noon event…a historical relic.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

The End Of ‘Quarterly Capitalism’?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/22/2016 – 12:10

Tell us truthfully: do you actually get a lot of value from quarterly earnings reports?  It’s not actually us asking; it is the Securities and Exchange Commission and the NIRI trade group, the most influential group of Investor Relations professionals in U.S. markets. Last week the SEC published a concept release that seeks public input on a range of issues, perhaps most notably quarterly financial reporting for public companies.

Questions include: “Do investors, registrants, and the markets benefit from quarterly reporting?” and “Should we revise or eliminate our rules requiring quarterly reporting?”




We all know that Germany is focused on keeping access to Turkish oil pipelines.

But this?

“German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed off on a deal with the devil (Turkey) that would give 80 million Turkish Muslims visa-free access to the EU.

You can now call the Fatherland… TURKmany!

I remember in my youth when German products were considered the highest quality and craftsmanship in the world. Then they outsourced production. Now that distinction is gone.

Also, a German worker never needed references, as his work ethic was strong and beyond reproach. You can bet your life that will change also.

I won’t even get into their stoic clinging to fiscal responsibility. Weimar still lurks in their soul.

Unless you’ve experienced that firsthand, you have no clue. It’s like your first true love… there’s simply no explaining it. You have to experience it.

All this degradation for GREED. A loss for German and the World.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Europe Makes “Deal With The Devil”, Panics After Deal Terms Have To Be Changed
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2016 – 14:50

When you make a deal with the devil, it’s certain the devil will insist you keep up your end of the bargain. That’s precisely where we are at today in regards to the European refugee crisis.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel signed off on a deal with the devil (Turkey) that would give 80 million Turkish Muslims visa-free access to the EU.

As part of the deal, Turkey will receive €3 billion in aid. In return, Turkey agreed to halt the flow of refugees pouring into Greece. Turkey did stop the flow of refugees into Greece, and now the devil wants his due.


Posted at 10:43 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.


The minute NY opens, someone (Fed?) sells $2 billion on paper contracts… to stem a MASSIVE overnight rally that took gold up $23 and Silver up $ .70.

The danger in that play is… they have to buy back the shorts at some point! If the price recovers later today on bargain hunting, you could see an enormous squeeze! Even the Fed has to cover its shorts.

You think?

CIGA Wolfgang Rech


This is 9 days global gold production and 18 days of global silver production. “Who” has this much metal to sell and “who” in their right mind would ever sell it in this fashion?  I will laugh my ass off if gold and silver make new highs for the day! The day of reckoning is very soon!


Precious Metals Puke – ‘Someone’ Dumps $2 Billion Of Gold Into Futures Markets
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2016 09:21 -0400

What goes up… must not be allowed to…

Someone just decided this was the perfect time to dump over $2 billion worth of notional paper gold onto the markets…


Over 16,000 gold contracts (and 7,500 silver) were dumped in that 5/10 minutes segment.

It appears Draghi did not like the impression of his impotence that precious metals were suggesting.


Posted at 2:30 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Silly me, I just thought they were lying by their own free will.

Watchdog says press freedom in decline in ‘new era of propaganda’
April 20, 2016

Paris (AFP) – World press freedom deteriorated in 2015, especially in the Americas, advocacy group Reporters Without Borders said Wednesday as it released its annual rankings, warning of “a new era of propaganda”.

The World Press Freedom Index ranks 180 countries on indicators such as media independence, self-censorship, the rule of law, transparency and abuses.

This year’s report warned of a climate of fear that has seen world leaders “developing a form of paranoia about legitimate journalism.”

Christophe Deloire, secretary general of the Paris-based group told AFP there had been a decline in all parts of the world, with Latin America of particular concern.

“All of the indicators show a deterioration. Numerous authorities are trying to regain control of their countries, fearing overly open public debate,” he said.

“Today, it is increasingly easy for powers to appeal directly to the public through new technologies, and so there is a greater degree of violence against those who represent independent information,” he added.



Bill Holter’s Commentary

I can’t imagine even Jimmy Carter being treated like this. Lends a new meaning to the word “r e s p e c t”?

White House: Obama ‘cleared the air’ with Saudi Arabia
By Nicole Gaouette, Kevin Liptak, Michelle Kosinski and Nic Robertson, CNN
Updated 7:31 PM ET, Wed April 20, 2016

Click here to watch the video…


Bill Holter’s Commentary

Hey, the BOJ needs to put their money somewhere don’t they?

Why Stocks Rebounded Overnight: Goldman Expects BOJ To Double Its Equity Purchases As Soon As Next Week
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/20/2016 09:54 -0400

With oil – until recently the key signal for the S&P – down substantially overnight, many were scratching their heads why US equity futures not only rebounded from overnight lows but proceeded to wipe out all overnight losses and are currently trading in the green. The reason: another overnight ramp in the USDJPY which is the default fallback signal for stocks whenever oil isn’t going higher.


But what precipirated the bounce in USDJPY? 

The answer: a note from Goldman released overnight titled “Bringing forward our main scenario for additional easing to April from June” in which the bank announced it is now making an April easing by the BOJ as its main case scenario instead of June as was the case before, and it now expects that the BOJ to double its pace of equity purchases via ETFs from the current ¥3.3 trillion to ¥7.0 trillion as soon as the BOJ’s next meeting on April 26-27.

This is precisely what we wrote last week in “The Bank Of Japan Already Owns Over Half Of All ETFs; It Wants To Own More”, and Goldman now agrees.

Here is the summary from Goldman’s Naohiko Baba:


Posted at 11:07 AM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

Many of us have waited for today, April 19, as we anticipated the new Chinese daily gold fix and the opening of the ABX physical exchange.  Some may be disappointed, other ecstatic.  I will say I am personally pleased because it was almost exactly as I suspected.

Much has happened over the last couple of weeks and a lot of it has to do with “truth” being exposed.  The “markets” are no different.  China in my opinion is simply trying to aid in markets determining prices of gold and silver.

Last Friday we got horrifying (from a contrarian standpoint) COT numbers with nearly record numbers for commercial shorts.  With history as any guide, gold and silver should have already been slaughtered, they have not been.  In fact, we now have silver and gold at nearly one year highs and mining equities exploding.  Yesterday saw a dozen or more juniors up 25%++ for the day!

As I have maintained, I believe today’s action will become more frequent with the Shanghai physical demand pushing prices higher.  I believe they lit the first candle of truth today, other candles will follow until the light switch gets flipped on.  COMEX/LBMA will either go along in price or they will be arbitraged completely out of inventory.  As I wrote several weeks back, “what good is a contract that cannot perform”?  It is very possible China will let this “stew” for a while and allow the markets time to adjust to real and free pricing …only then do I see China coming out with a gold backed yuan.  If they were to do that today, it would be a declaration of war on the U.S. hegemon, if they wait, they can have cover and say “hey, it was global free markets that pushed gold out of sight”.

As mentioned above, commercials are very short gold and silver now, they have lost $billions just today.  Maybe they continue to throw paper at gold and silver, Shanghai ain’t buyin’ it!  No matter what the apologists say, COMEX can and will default when they can no longer deliver metal.  They say “cash settlement” is not a default …who are they kidding?  This is the rally you never sell …until you are offered a different “paper” (one that is backed by something, anything) that can be trusted.  China may be making this offer in the near future!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome

Posted at 1:32 AM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

What follows is a response from a friend and very brilliant individual. I believe it is so good, it should be posted in its entirety for your view! To give you a background, he originally sent me the “procedures to enter the Inter Bank Bond Market” in China, to which I responded with the simple questions and comment:

Dear XXXX,

I take this as China truly opening up as a financial center? Also, gold backed yuan and non-acceptance of dollars for yuan is not confirmed yet, any feelings on these? With what happened this past week, something huge brewing!


*Please read and re read what follows VERY carefully as I believe more pieces of insight in one writing than you will get reading multiple books!*

Click here to read the full posting…

Posted at 1:06 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs

More about the class action suit versus Deutsche Bank over manipulating the precious metals market.

According to the notice of suit, many of the major banks and financial firms are named as defendants. This class suit was filed last December. What is new is that Deutsche Bank has apparently admitted its involvement and is cooperating with ongoing government investigations.

Click here to read the full court filing…


Posted at 8:18 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There are no Morgans in JP Morgan and no Goldmans in Goldman. There is no loyalty to the grand old names, only loyalty to self interest in the New Normal. Now, if you got this report purely from number crunchers and not enemies what would you do with your own money in JP Morgan and Goldman? You got it, run to gold and silver. It is happening and hiding in plain sight.

I recently told you even I am terrified of what is coming financially. This type of public news only stokes my concern for you and I. This kind of information should motivate their employees to vote for “Bernie Free Things.” Remember Bear Sterns, where there was no Bear or Sterns, canned 14,000 employees in one push of the send button.

The Fed Sends a Frightening Letter to JPMorgan and Corporate Media Yawns
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 14, 2016

Jamie Dimon, Testifying Before the Senate Banking Committee on June 13, 2012 Over Massive Derivative Losses at the Depository Bank of JPMorgan Chase

Yesterday the Federal Reserve released a 19-page letter that it and the FDIC had issued to Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, on April 12 as a result of its failure to present a credible plan for winding itself down if the bank failed. The letter carried frightening passages and large blocks of redacted material in critical areas, instilling in any careful reader a sense of panic about the U.S. financial system.

A rational observer of Wall Street’s serial hubris might have expected some key segments of this letter to make it into the business press. A mere eight years ago the United States experienced a complete meltdown of its financial system, leading to the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. President Obama and regulators have been assuring us over these intervening eight years that things are under control as a result of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. But according to the letter the Fed and FDIC issued on April 12 to JPMorgan Chase, the country’s largest bank with over $2 trillion in assets and $51 trillion in notional amounts of derivatives, things are decidedly not under control.

At the top of page 11, the Federal regulators reveal that they have “identified a deficiency” in JPMorgan’s wind-down plan which if not properly addressed could “pose serious adverse effects to the financial stability of the United States.” Why didn’t JPMorgan’s Board of Directors or its legions of lawyers catch this?

It’s important to parse the phrasing of that sentence. The Federal regulators didn’t say JPMorgan could pose a threat to its shareholders or Wall Street or the markets. It said the potential threat was to “the financial stability of the United States.”

That statement should strike fear into even the likes of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton who has been tilting at the shadows in shadow banks while buying into the Paul Krugman nonsense that “Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Is Working” when it comes to the behemoth banks on Wall Street.

How could one bank, even one as big and global as JPMorgan Chase, bring down the whole financial stability of the United States? Because, as the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Financial Research (OFR) has explained in detail and plotted in pictures (see below), five big banks in the U.S. have high contagion risk to each other. Which bank poses the highest contagion risk? JPMorgan Chase.

The OFR study was authored by Meraj Allahrakha, Paul Glasserman, and H. Peyton Young, who found the following:

“…the default of a bank with a higher connectivity index would have a greater impact on the rest of the banking system because its shortfall would spill over onto other financial institutions, creating a cascade that could lead to further defaults. High leverage, measured as the ratio of total assets to Tier 1 capital, tends to be associated with high financial connectivity and many of the largest institutions are high on both dimensions…The larger the bank, the greater the potential spillover if it defaults; the higher its leverage, the more prone it is to default under stress; and the greater its connectivity index, the greater is the share of the default that cascades onto the banking system. The product of these three factors provides an overall measure of the contagion risk that the bank poses for the financial system.”

The Federal Reserve and FDIC are clearly fingering their worry beads over the issue of “liquidity” in the next Wall Street crisis. That obviously has something to do with the fact that the Fed has received scathing rebuke from the public for secretly funneling over $13 trillion in cumulative, below-market-rate loans, often at one-half percent or less, to the big U.S. and foreign banks during the 2007-2010 crisis. The two regulators released background documents yesterday as part of flunking the wind-down plans (living wills) of five major Wall Street banks. (In addition to JPMorgan Chase, plans were rejected at Wells Fargo, Bank of America, State Street and Bank of New York Mellon.) One paragraph in the Resolution Plan Assessment Framework and Firm Determinations (2016) used the word “liquidity” 11 times:



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mr. Williams shares the following with us.

- First-Quarter 2016 Retail Sales Contracted Quarter-to-Quarter,
Before and Most Likely Also After Inflation Adjustment
- Non-Comparable Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions Boosted March Sales to a
Decline of 0.3% (-0.3%), Instead of About 0.8% (-0.8%)
- Retail Sales Series Faces Likely Major Downside Revisions in
April 30th Benchmarking
- March 2016 PPI Goods Inflation rose by 0.19%,
PPI Services Profit Margins Fell by 0.18% (-0.18%), Leaving
Aggregate Final-Demand PPI Inflation Down by 0.09% (-0.09%)

“No. 798: March Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) ”


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Come on David, nothing is rigged, Martin told me. All you need is charts and cycles to be an omnipotent market maven.

More Bull
New York City, New York
April 14, 2016

The robo-machines were raging yesterday based on precisely nothing except banging 2080 on the S&P cash and a teapot’s worth of short-term trading momentum. But a 1% or $300 billion gain in the stock market apparently needs some fig leaf of rationalization. So the lazy hacks who cover the casino’s daily hijinks for the mainstream media came up with some doozies.

To wit, JPMorgan purportedly had a bang up quarter and surprised to the upside and China’s export machine came roaring back. This was supposedly some kind of all clear signal. According to the bulls, the market can’t rise without “participation” by the financials and China is still the mainspring of global growth.

I won’t bother to say, not exactly. You could have learned by the second paragraph that “up” was actually “down”.

In fact, JPMorgan’s earnings were down 7% from last year, and were nearly $1 billion or 15% below its bookings for the March quarter three years ago (2013). Whatever they implied, JPM’s Q1 profits had nothing to do with a break-out to the upside.


That was reinforced by its revenue postings. They came in 3.5% below prior year, and that was no aberration. It seems as if JPMs revenues have been drooping ever since the Feds gifted it with Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns back in 2008. LTM revenues of $92.7 billion are now 10% below the $103 billion it posted back in 2010.


In any event, why would anyone argue that quarterly accounting income of the giant Wall Street banks has anything to do with the main street economy or even real profits?…



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Ask if you are one of more than 49% of the USA getting something from the Government Dole. Who are you voting for? Clearly the candidate that the police are using force on.

If that does not work then 100% of the vote counting machines will be Diebold.