Posted at 12:47 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Connecticut Governor Declares State of Emergency Over Ebola as a Precaution

The order gives the state the authority to quarantine and isolate people who may have been exposed to the virus
Tuesday, Oct 7, 2014 • Updated at 4:27 PM EDT

Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy has declared a public health emergency for the state as a precaution during the Ebola epidemic that is affecting several countries in western Africa.

He signed an order declaring the emergency on Tuesday and it gives the commissioner of the state Department of Public Health the authority to quarantine and isolate people whom the commissioner “reasonably believes has been exposed to the Ebola virus.”

Malloy said this is not in response to any specific case, but is meant to provide state health officials with the authority necessary to “prevent any potential transmission of the Ebola virus within the State of Connecticut,” the letter says.

“We are taking this action today to ensure that we are prepared, in advance, to deal with any identified cases in which someone has been exposed to the virus or, worst case, infected,” Malloy said in a statement. “Our state’s hospitals have been preparing for it, and public health officials from the state are working around the clock to monitor the situation. Right now, we have no reason to think that anyone in the state is infected or at risk of infection. But it is essential to be prepared and we need to have the authorities in place that will allow us to move quickly to protect public health, if and when that becomes necessary. Signing this order will allow us to do that.”

Without the declaration of emergency, officials have no statewide ability to isolate or quarantine people who might have been exposed or infected. Instead, each individual local public health director would have the authority, according to the governor’s office.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is prevalent in every important market internationally.

Banker admits Libor fraud conspiracy
7 October 2014 Last updated at 06:08 ET

A senior banker from a UK bank has admitted conspiring to defraud over manipulating the Libor lending rate.

The banker, who can not be named for legal reasons, is the first person in the UK to plead guilty to the offence.

Two men have already pleaded guilty in the US to fraud offences linked to the rigging of Libor, for years the benchmark by which trillions of pounds of financial contracts are based.

The case arose from the Serious Fraud Office’s (SFO) investigations.

It began looking into Libor manipulation in 2012 after it emerged that it was being widely abused by leading banks to manipulate rates in their favour.

The SFO’s investigation continues and 11 other individuals stand charged and await trial.

Seven banks and brokerages have settled regulatory allegations of interest rate rigging in the UK and the US after global investigations.

So far, 17 men have been charged with fraud-related offences.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This could cause our and our allies boots on the ground.

NATO promises to protect Turkey against ISIS threat
Published time: October 06, 2014 16:30

NATO will not abandon Turkey if it is attacked by Islamic State fighters which are closing in on the member state’s border from Syria, the alliance’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, said.

Turkey should know that NATO will be there if there is any spillover, any attacks on Turkey as a consequence of the violence we see in Syria,” Stoltenberg said, as quoted by Reuters.

On Monday, Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) militants raised their black flag on the eastern outskirts of the Syrian town of Kobani (Ayn al-Arab), which is situated near the Turkish border.

The secretary-general stressed that NATO’s main task is to  protect all allied countries, including Turkey, which joined the alliance in 1952.

Turkey is a NATO ally and our main responsibility is to protect the integrity, the borders of Turkey and that is the reason why we have deployed Patriot missiles in Turkey to enhance, to strengthen the airfence of Turkey," Stoltenberg said during a visit to Poland.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Confidence in government hangs on a weak string.

‘Protective clothing doesn’t work against Ebola’: Outrage grows after Spanish nurse caught disease DESPITE wearing a safety suit – and WHO now warns more cases in Europe are ‘unavoidable’
By Damien Gayle and Lizzie Parry and Stephanie Linning for MailOnline
Published: 04:13 EST, 7 October 2014 | Updated: 11:19 EST, 7 October 2014

Anger was growing in Spain today over how a nurse became infected with Ebola as it was claimed the protective suits given to health officials were not good enough.

Four suspected Ebola patients are now in hospital in Madrid after the nurse was confirmed as the first person to catch the virus outside of West Africa.

The escalation in Spain’s Ebola outbreak comes as officials revealed 30 people were being monitored for symptoms, including the woman’s husband.

It has also since emerged that a week before she tested positive for Ebola she had contacted health workers to complain of a fever and fatigue, telling them she had helped treat two priests who contracted Ebola in Africa and were repatriated to Spain.

But it wasn’t until she went to her local hospital on Monday that she was finally admitted and tested for the virus.

It is not the same hospital where she worked, raising questions over the number of people she has come into contact with.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mickey Mouse needs to be bailed out and Bernanke can’t get a mortgage. Some recovery…

Disneyland Paris goes begging to parent company Walt as theme park reveals it needs £800million bail out to stay open
By Peter Campbell for the Daily Mail and Rachel Rickard Straus for Thisismoney.co.uk
Published: 18:39 EST, 6 October 2014 | Updated: 09:29 EST, 7 October 2014

America’s Walt Disney is poised to take full control of the ailing French firm that runs Disneyland Paris.

After decades of financial losses, Euro Disney yesterday said it required an £800million rescue package to keep the park open.

Despite attracting millions of visitors a year and owning the rights to all of the popular Disney characters, the French-operated theme park has never made a profit since launching in 1992.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Gold and silver should be on top of this list.

Big Banks Face Another Round of U.S. Charges
By BEN PROTESS and JESSICA SILVER-GREENBERG
OCTOBER 6, 2014 9:30 PMOctober 6, 2014 9:30 pm

The Justice Department is preparing a fresh round of attacks on the world’s biggest banks, again questioning Wall Street’s role in a broad array of financial markets.

With evidence mounting that a number of foreign and American banks colluded to alter the price of foreign currencies, the largest and least regulated financial market, prosecutors are aiming to file charges against at least one bank by the end of the year, according to interviews with lawyers briefed on the matter. Ultimately, several banks are expected to plead guilty.

Interviews with more than a dozen lawyers who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private negotiations open a window onto previously undisclosed aspects of an investigation that is unnerving Wall Street and the defense bar. While cases stemming from the financial crisis were aimed at institutions, prosecutors are planning to eventually indict individual bank employees over currency manipulation, using their instant messages as incriminating evidence.

The charges will most likely focus on traders and their bosses rather than chief executives. As a result, critics of the Justice Department might view the cases as little more than an exercise in public relations, a final push to shape the legacy of Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr., who was blamed for a lack of criminal cases against Wall Street executives.

Yet the breadth of the suspected wrongdoing in the currency inquiry — Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Barclaysand UBS are among the dozen or so banks under investigation — might distinguish it from the piecemeal nature of the crisis-era investigations.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

You have to love the anti Russian sanctions as long as you are not European.

German Industrial Output Drops Most Since 2009 in August
By Jana Randow Oct 7, 2014 6:39 AM MT

German industrial production (GRIPIMOM) fell more than economists forecast in August in the latest sign that the outlook for Europe’s largest economy is deteriorating.

Production, adjusted for seasonal swings, dropped 4 percent from July, when it expanded 1.6 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. That’s the biggest decline since January 2009 and compares with a median estimate of 1.5 percent in a Bloomberg News survey.

Germany’s economy is losing momentum as sluggish growth in the euro area, its largest export market, and political tension with Russia weigh on confidence. The European Central Bank has enacted unprecedented stimulus to sustain the regional recovery while calling on governments to press ahead with structural reforms.

While “the setback in industrial production in August was a massive one,” there is “no reason to panic,” said Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit MIB in Munich. “German industrial activity will soften in coming months as already indicated by business sentiment but not tumble into the abyss. And no, there is no reason to dig up the R-word again.”

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"Common People Do Not Carry This Much Currency" – How Police Justify Stealing American Citizens’ Money
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/07/2014 12:45 -0400
Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Police confiscating Americans’ hard earned cash, as well as a wide variety of other valuables, without an arrest or conviction is a disturbing and growing practice throughput these United States. Since cops get to keep the seized funds and use the money on pretty much anything they want, the practice is becoming endemic in certain parts of the nation. The theft is often referred to simply as civil forfeiture, or civil asset forfeiture. Incredibly, under civil forfeiture laws your property is incredibly “guilty until you prove it innocent.”

The extent of the problem came to my attention last summer after reading an excellent article by Sarah Stillman in the New Yorker. The article struck such a chord with me, I penned a post highlighting it and addressing the issue, titled: Why You Should Never, Ever Drive Through Tenaha, Texas. That article ended up being one of my most popular posts of 2013.

Fast forward a year, and many mainstream publications have also jumped on the topic. Most notably, the Washington Post published an excellent article last month titled, Stop and Seize, which I strongly suggest reading if you haven’t already.

Fortunately for us all, the issue has also caught the eye of the always hilarious, John Oliver of Last Week Tonight. The following clip from his show is brilliant. Not only is it hilarious, but it will hopefully educate a wider audience about this insidious practice so that it can be stopped once and for all.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Some great recovery here?

Food Stamp Recipients Top 46 Million for 35th Straight Month

October 7, 2014 – 2:03 PM
By Ali Meyer

(CNSNews.com) – The number of Americans on food stamps has topped 46,000,000 for 35 straight months, according to data from the Department of Agriculture (USDA).

From September 2011 through July 2014, the latest month for which data is available, the number of persons participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has exceeded 46 million. As of July 2014, there were 46,486,434 beneficiaries of the SNAP program.

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While the number of persons participating in SNAP in July declined slightly from the 46,496,252 who were participating in June, the number of households participating increased in that same time frame from 22,714,042 in June to 22,715,583 in July.

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Posted at 11:44 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

Richard feels the bottom is set and we should be getting ready for a rising market.

CIGA Larry

Richard Russell – We Just Saw Ultimate Bottom In Gold & Silver

Today the Godfather of newsletter writers, 90-year old Richard Russell, said we have witnessed the “ultimate bottom” in the gold and silver markets.  The 60-year market veteran also warned that the world is going to see a new monetary system which will feature gold as the centerpiece.

Russell:  “Currently, the world is beset by a multitude of emergencies. The water shortage and the change in the earth’s climate along with the disasters of Ebola and ISIS must be solved. As a rule, we don’t address problems until they become emergencies. My belief is that in coming years, we will address all potential disasters and emergencies.

World Wars I and II plus the Holocaust may stand out as the worst episodes in human history (other than communist regimes, considered responsible for 85-100 million deaths).  The three worst epidemics in history were the bubonic plague, which wiped out one-third of Europe, the influenza epidemic which killed 50 million people in 1918 and most recently the AIDS scare, which has killed 36 million since its inception, according to the World Health Organization. As a sign of human progress, the world is taking the Ebola epidemic seriously. It remains to be seen whether Ebola can be confined to Africa. Time marches on and the human race really does make progress.

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Jim,

As to why a non-transferable disease is causing officials to go nuts… are they not telling us something??

CIGA JB Slear.

Ebola: Husband of quarantined Spanish nurse says officials want to put down their dog

THE husband of the Spanish nurse infected with Ebola has attacked health chiefs in Madrid after claiming they threatened to put down the couple’s pet dog.
By: Gerard Couzens
Published: Tue, October 7, 2014

Teresa Romero Ramos and Javier Limon Romero are being held in quarantine in separate rooms at the same hospital in the Spanish capital.

Teresa, 44, one of the medical team that treated the two repatriated Spanish priests who died from Ebola, was diagnosed with the killer disease yesterday.

Today, her husband Javier, who is being looked after at the Carlos III Hospital, claimed health chiefs in Madrid were trying to get their pet dog Excalibur put down.

An SOS message he sent to a friend ended up on the Facebook page of an animal welfare association.

Javier, who lives in the Madrid suburb of Alcorcon, said that he had left the dog with all the provision it needed while he was in hospital.

He claimed that health officials had asked for his permission to euthanise the animal, and then said they would seek a court order to enter his house and have the dog put down after he refused.

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Posted at 11:51 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

You may not want to hear about this, but it is a factor due to how people in history have reacted to similar situations such as the great Spanish Flu pandemic in the USA. The salient factor is the Ebola virus was transmitted in Spain, not in Africa.

Spanish nurse becomes first to contract Ebola in Europe
Transmission of the deadly virus from an infected priest treated in Madrid to a health worker is the first time it has been contracted outside Africa
By Fiona Govan, Madrid
8:17PM BST 06 Oct 2014

A Spanish nurse has tested positive for the deadly Ebola virus, in what is the first case of the virus being contracted outside of Africa.

The 44-year-old woman, whose name has not been made public, has tested positive to two tests, health authority sources confirmed.

She was admitted to a hospital near her home in the Madrid suburb of Alcorcon with a high fever on Monday morning and was said to be in a “stable condition”.

Spain’s heath ministry confirmed that she was part of the medical team that treated Manuel Garcia Viejo, a Spanish missionary priest who died of the virus at a Madrid hospital 11 days ago after been evacuated from Sierra Leone.

Mr Garcia Viejo, 69, was the second person in Europe to die from Ebola after being repatriated from West Africa. He died on September 25, four days after being airlifted to Spain.

The first was Miguel Pajares, 75, a Spanish missionary priest who died on Aug 12 despite receiving the experimental ZMapp drug while he was being treated at Madrid’s Carlos III hospital after being repatriated from Liberia.

Both were members of the Hospital Order of San Juan de Dios, a Roman Catholic group that runs a charity working with Ebola victims in Africa.

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Silver Soars As The Dollar Dumps Most In A Year; Stocks Surrender Payrolls Gains
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/06/2014 16:05 -0400

Following Friday’s post-payrolls exuberance, the US Dollar crashed by the most in over a year today and stocks retraced most of their gains with only European data (weak) to base any momentum ignition on. Today’s stock weakness turning point coincided with the bankruptcy headlines of GTAT but the divergence to USDJPY and bonds set the scene for stocks’ demise. Trannies were today’s laggard (after leading Friday) along with small-caps as The Dow clung to 17,000 and S&P closed marginally red. EUR strength led USD weaker and the plunge accelerated into the US close (eradicating all payrolls gains). USD weakness sparked commodity strength as gold (up most in 3 months), copper, and oil all rose and silver surged 3% (most in 4 months). VIX rose 0.8 to 15.3 as stocks closed ugly (not "off the lows" for Trannies and Russell) with a flush in financials.

Surprise!! Stocks catch down to bonds and JPY…

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The mid-afternoon ramp was all about the machines lifting to VWAP for institutional-sellers…

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John Embry – We Are Nearing A Violent Change In The Markets

Today a man who has been involved in the financial markets for 50 years warned King World News that we are nearing a violent change in the markets.  John Embry, who is business partners with billionaire Eric Sprott, also discussed the endless stream of propaganda from the mainstream media.

Embry:  “I was astounded by the combination of Friday’s U.S. jobs report and the engineered market reaction.  I really think it should be an embarrassment to any American who respects honesty and integrity.  The suggestion that 248,000 jobs created showed renewed vitality in the U.S. economy is pure propaganda.

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Germany considers sending troops to E. Ukraine – report
Published time: October 04, 2014 15:48

Berlin is mulling sending troops to monitor the shaky ceasefire between Kiev forces and local militia in eastern Ukraine, a German government source told Reuters.

The source told the agency that a German troop deployment would depend on the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which could move to send in troops to monitor the ceasefire it helped broker on September 5 in Minsk, Belarus.

If such a political decision were made, the number of troops sent by Germany would depend on the security situation in Ukraine and conditions set by the OSCE, the source said.

German newspaper Bild, however, said that 200 soldiers were planned for the mission. Around 150 would help monitor the crisis area with drones, and an additional 50 would provide security.

Last month, France and Germany offered to send drones to help bolster OSCE monitoring of the ceasefire in Ukraine’s troubled east.

The daily said the mission was in reaction to a Franco-German fact-finding mission in mid-September, which determined that the ceasefire could only be effectively monitored if boots on the ground provided security for monitoring staff.

A spokesman for the German Foreign Ministry told Reuters that Berlin and Paris are hammering out a plan to support the OSCE mission, but were only in the exploratory phase.

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De-Dollarization: Europe and China Start Direct Trading In Euros and Renminbi
By Tyler Durden
Global Research, September 30, 2014

De-dollarization has been an ongoing theme hidden just below the surface of the mainstream media for more than a year as Russia and China slowly but surely attempt to “isolate” the US Dollar. Until very recently, direct trade agreements with China (in other words, bypassing the US Dollar exchange in bilateral trade) had been with smaller trade partners.

On the heels of Western pressure, Russia and China were forced closer together and de-dollarization accelerated from Turkey to Argentina as an increasing number of countries around the world realize the importance of this chart.

However, things are about to get even more dramatic. As Bloomberg reports, China will start direct trading between the yuan and the euro tomorrow as the world’s second-largest economy seeks to spur global use of its currency in a “fresh step forward in China’s yuan internationalization.” With civil unrest growing on every continent and wars (proxy or other) at tipping points, perhaps, just perhaps, the US really does want rid of the weight of the USD as a reserve currency after all (as championed here by Obama’s former right hand economist)… now that would be an intriguing ‘strategy’.

As Bloomberg reports, China will start direct trading between the yuan and the euro tomorrow as the world’s second-largest economy seeks to spur global use of its currency…

The euro will become the sixth major currency to be exchangeable directly for yuan in Shanghai, joining the U.S., Australian and New Zealand dollars, the British pound and the Japanese yen. The yuan ranked seventh for global payments in August and more than one-third of the world’s financial institutions have used it for transfers to China and Hong Kong, the Society for Worldwide International Financial Telecommunications said last week.

“It’s a fresh step forward in China’s yuan internationalization,” said Liu Dongliang, an analyst with China Merchants Bank Co. in Shenzhen.

The move will lower transaction costs and so make yuan and euros more attractive to conduct bilateral trade and investment, the People’s Bank of China said today in a statement on its website. HSBC Holdings Plc said separately it has received regulatory approval to be one of the first market makers when trading begins in China’s domestic market.

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Posted at 11:57 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

My Dear Friends,

Gold has had a historic amount of negative print and airtime this week. The Yamana and Armstrong comments seem timed perfectly to kick the legs out from under gold. The price of the US Dollar seems to have forgotten it was at .7900 only 11 weeks ago.

The dollar has risen because the Euro collapsed 1000 points from 1.3600 to below 1.2600. This collapse of the Euro is due to the serious sanction’s impact on Europe which have not significantly damaged any US financial interests. On the contrary, anti Russian sanctions have tipped Europe into recession. Draghi has been trying to talk the Euro lower for trade reasons, but his power is only words as QE there is more than likely against their constitution. This will decided soon.

To declare a permanent death sentence on gold because of the dollar’s mirror image up move to the sanction-injured euro is premature in rally week #12.

Gold is trading down into old lows which by definition are major support levels while both long and short term cyclical indicators have gone positive. Therefore probability says the decline is nearing an end both in time and price.

I am fully committed financially to gold as I was above $1900. I anticipate success.

This will drive the gold hating internet trolls wild, but all their efforts fit nicely into the spam blocker. I do not open emails from new names during these trying times as I know the organized and strategized hate that pours out of them.

The takedown on gold is a highly organized spoofing play. It will fail to hold gold down permanently, and gold will again trade to new highs.

Sincerely,
Jim

Posted at 9:24 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

MSM appears to talk with a forked tongue.

How could futures rally on poor European economic data (prospect for more QE), yet hope for better U.S. Economic data (less QE)?

I found the answer. It’s not humans that are dissecting the market (who, more often than not, act somewhat rationally and allow for some predictability), it’s the ALGOs that are preprogrammed to act on such data, be it rational or not. They sometimes confuse themselves as much as they confuse everyone else.

This is exactly why trading has become nearly impossible. There are no longer any historical backdrops or trading guidelines that can be used. ALGOs have changed all that.

Ever wonder why bad news = good news, then sometimes bad news = bad news? It is what drove Jesse Livermore away from the markets later in his life. “Everything changed” he said.

Mind boggling, to say the least.

Your best bet is to go back to fundamentals. In the long run, they never steer you wrong. You may have to wait a bit longer for results, but come, they will.

CIGA Wolfgang

Futures Jump On Latest Batch Of Disappointing European Data; Hope Of Payrolls Rebound
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/03/2014 06:28 -0400

In is only fitting that a week that has been characterized by deteriorating macroeconomic data, and abysmal European data, would conclude with yet another macro disappointment in the form of Markit’s sentiment surveys, for non-manufacturing/service (and composite) PMIs in Europe which missed almost entirely across the board, with Spain down from 58.1 to 55.8 (exp. 57.0), Italy down from 49.8 to 48.8 (exp. 49.8), France down from 49.4 to 48.4 (exp. 49.4), and in fact only Russia (!) and Germany rising, with the latter growing from 55.4 to 55.7, above the 55.4 expected, which however hardly compensates for the contractionary manufacturing PMI reported earlier this week. As a result, the Composite Eurozone PMI down from 52.3 to 52.0, missing expectations, as only Germany saw a service PMI increase.

Goldman’s take: "Bottom line: The September Euro area Final Composite PMI came in at 52.0, 0.3pt weaker than the Flash (and Consensus) estimate. Relative to August, the Composite PMI declined by 0.5pt. The weaker Final Composite PMI was driven by a downward revision to the French Final service PMI. Today’s data also showed a decline in the Italian and Spanish service PMI."

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From Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:

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Jim,

Allan Greenspan give a hint.

Excerpt:

"If China were to convert a relatively modest part of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves into gold, the country’s currency could take on unexpected strength in today’s international financial system."

Click here to read the full article…

CIGA Perry

Posted at 9:23 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Gold Stocks: Time to Buy or Will They Get Worse?
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Henry Bonner

Gold has fallen from over $1,300 in mid-August to around $1,210 per ounce as of October 21, dragging many gold-related stocks down with them. Steve Todoruk joined Rick Rule at Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd. in 2003. Should cautious investors steer clear of the sector for now? Or is this an opportunity to buy gold stocks? In a recent note, Steve weighed in:

While gold has gotten cheaper in recent weeks – partially because of US dollar strengthening — the stock prices of many major miners and small juniors are holding well above their lows of December 2013.

In my view, we are seeing the ‘higher lows’ that we would expect in share prices as we move out of the bear market and into a potential bull market. To the disappointment of many investors, this gradual rise is not the sharp upturn out of a three-year bear market, but rather a slow, frequently-interrupted climb.

For the junior mining stocks, as of October 2nd, Virginia Gold Mines stands around $12.30 (from $11.60 on December 20)2, Mag Silver is at $7.40 (from $5 on December 20)3, Rubicon Minerals Corp. is at $1.30 (from near $0.75 on December 20)4, Premier Gold Mines is at $2.70 (from $1.30 on December 20)5, Detour Gold is at $8.60 (from $3.80 on December 20)6 and Roxgold Inc. is $0.70 (was $0.42 on December 20)7. One reason many of these juniors are holding up is that some of them are potential takeover targets. A cash bid could come along and offer a payout to investors regardless of what happens to the price of gold – which explains why they have retained their value. Of course, not all companies that are potential takeover targets will do well in the coming months or year – and their performance this year is no indication that they will continue to rise.

Some of these companies were able to take advantage of strong prices earlier this year to raise significant amounts of cash in the equity markets. I believe those companies now stand to be better protected to the downside, and may benefit from the ability to spend money advancing their projects.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

She will certainly go to hell for this.

IMF’s Lagarde: Global Recovery ‘Not Good Enough’
Thursday, 02 Oct 2014 01:49 PM

The global economy could be stuck in a weak growth rut for a long time as countries struggle to pull free from a past of high debt and unemployment, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

The economic rebound is even weaker than the IMF predicted six months ago, and countries risk getting stuck in a prolonged period of sluggish growth, especially in the eurozone, Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, said.

"Yes, there is a recovery but as we all know — and can all feel it — the level of growth and jobs is simply not good enough," Lagarde said in remarks at Georgetown University in Washington. "The world needs to aim higher and try harder."

Lagarde said the IMF pared its expectations for potential growth, or the change in the global economy’s ability to produce.

In its last forecast in July, the IMF said the global economy should expand 3.4 percent this year, with growth speeding up to 4 percent in 2015.

Lagarde, who spoke ahead of the IMF and World Bank fall meetings next week, chronicled a series of "clouds on the horizon" that could hurt the global economy, including central banks’ differing plans to raise interest rates.

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Labor Participation Rate Drops To 36 Year Low; Record 92.6 Million Americans Not In Labor Force
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/03/2014 08:55 -0400

While by now everyone should know the answer, for those curious why the US unemployment rate just slid once more to a meager 5.9%, the lowest print since the summer of 2008, the answer is the same one we have shown every month since 2010: the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which in September slid from an already three decade low 62.8% to 62.7% – the lowest in over 36 years, matching the February 1978 lows. And while according to the Household Survey, 232,000 people found jobs, what is more disturbing is that the people not in the labor force, rose to a new record high, increasing by 315,000 to 92.6 million!

And that’s how you get a fresh cycle low in the unemployment rate.

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So the next time Obama asks you if you are "better off now than 6 years ago"show him this chart of employment to the overall population: it speaks louder than the president ever could.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The jobs number were not a "blow out" as financial TV would have you believe.

4 Of 5 Top Job Additions In September Were Low Or Minimum Wage
Tyler Durden on 10/03/2014 09:55 -0400

Interested why despite the euphoric headline NFP print, a cursory glance deeper inside the payrolls report reveals weakness after weakness, with both participation plunging again and wages the worst since last summer? Here is the answer: 4 of the top 5 largest job additions in September, retail trade, leisure and hospitality, education and health and temp help, were of the lowest quality, and paying, jobs possible. So yes, America added a whole lot of minimum wage waiters, store clerks, groundskeepers and temps: truly the stuff New Normal "recoveries" are made of.

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"Hiring Grandparents Only": 230K September Jobs Added In 55-69 Age Group; 10K Lost In Prime, 25-54 Group
Tyler Durden on 10/03/2014 11:00 -0400

The further one digs into today’s "blockbuster" jobs report, the uglier it gets. Because it is not only the participation rate collapse, the slide in average earnings, but, topping it all off, we just learned that the future of the US workforce is bleak. In fact, with the age of the median employed male now in their mid-40′s, the US workforce has never been older. Case in point: the September data confirmed that the whopping surge in jobs… was thanks to your "grandparents" those in the 55-69 age group, which comprised the vast majority of the job additions in the month, at a whopping 230K.This was the biggest monthly jobs increase in the 55 and over age group since February!

What about the prime worker demographic, those aged 25-54 and whose work output is supposed to propel the US economy forward? They lost 10,000 jobs.

Of course, don’t expect any of this to be mentioned on any financial entertainment outlets: it would spoil the party of today’s "surging" jobs day.

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Then again in retrospect, it has never been a stronger labor market. Well, if you are 55 and over that is, the age group that just hit a record 32.6 million in jobs.

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Peak Housing 2.0 – Mark Hanson Warns This Bubble Correction Could Be A "Doozy"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/02/2014 20:46 -0400

Via Mark Hanson,

1) “Peak Housing”: The “Return to Normal”

The take-away from last month’s housing data was that “the market was returning to normal”, which despite the persevering weakness, was viewed as a “great thing”. This overly-simplistic and flawed assumption was made, as the all-cash cohort demand dramatically cooled and distressed supply and sales plunged YoY.

What people are suffering from is a lack of a medium-term memory, as what’s happening today happened in 2007/08; “Peak Housing”.

Back in 2007, the speculators (every ma and pa in America) driven by exotic credit stimulus without a “mortgage loan house price governor” — that drove prices over years of tremendous incremental and pulled-forward latitudinous demand — went away over a short period of time leaving the heavy lifting to weak, end-user fundamentals.

Today the unorthodox, new-era buy to rent/flip speculators driven by Fed stimulus without a “mortgage loan house price governor” — that drove prices through years of tremendous incremental and pulled-forward narrow demand — are going away quickly leaving the heavy lifting to weak, end-user fundamentals.

It was the stimulus-driven, unorthodox “things” that drove the “V” bottom in demand and prices yet again, not coincidentally from exactly the time in 2011 that Twist was first announced and yields plunged. Moreover, a rush of incremental and pulled forward end-user demand caused by the nuclear monetary policy that followed, forced end-users to chase spec-vestors. Before you knew it, spec-vestors and end-users were tripping all over themselves piled 30 deep bidding on houses. Prices surged, as the “mortgage loan house price governor” was removed just like from 2003 to 2007.

Although 2003-07 and 2011-13 were basically the same in nature, a big difference is that this stimulus-cycle was much greater in stimulus input over a shorter period of time than from 2003 to 2007. If stimulus “hangovers” are proportional to the amount of stimulus that preceded them, then this one could be a doozy.

Bottom line:  a “Return to Normal” is “Peak Housing” this time around too; a huge headwind — just like the “return to normal in 2007/08″ on the loss of exotic credit — to the consensus estimates of 10% to 20% sales volume gains and 5% to 10% price gains in perpetuity. In fact, organic house prices are already on the down — lagging the persevering demand slump — and likely to drop by 10% to 20% over the next 2 years, down more at the high-end.

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Posted at 2:44 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is done every day in paper gold and silver and is the main tool of bearish manipulation. There may be some hope that payback is pending.

High-Frequency Trader Indicted for Manipulating Commodities Futures Markets in First Federal Prosecution for Spoofing
U.S. Attorney’s Office
October 02, 2014
Northern District of Illinois(312) 353-5300

CHICAGO—In the first federal prosecution of its kind, a high-frequency trader was indicted for allegedly manipulating commodities futures prices and illegally profiting nearly $1.6 million as a result of trading orders he placed through CME Group and European futures markets in 2011. The defendant, Michael Coscia, was the manager and sole owner of the former Panther Energy Trading LLC, of Red Bank, N.J., which he formed in 2007.

Coscia, 52, of Rumson, N.J., a registered commodities trader since 1988, was charged with six counts of commodities fraud and six counts of “spoofing” in a 12-count indictment returned yesterday by a federal grand jury, Zachary T. Fardon, United States Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois, and Robert J. Holley, Special Agent-in-Charge of the Chicago Office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, announced today.

The indictment marks the first federal prosecution nationwide under the anti-spoofing provision that was added to the Commodity Exchange Act by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

Coscia will be arraigned on a date to be determined in U.S. District Court in Chicago.

“Traders and investors deserve a level playing field, and when the field is tilted by market manipulators, regardless of their speed or sophistication, we will prosecute criminal violations to help ensure fairness and restore market integrity,” Mr. Fardon said. “This case reflects the reasons why, earlier this year, we established a Securities and Commodities Fraud Section, which is dedicated to protecting markets and preserving investors’ confidence,” he added.

According to the indictment, high-frequency trading is a form of automated trading that uses computer algorithms for decision-making and placing a high volume of trading orders, quotes, or cancelation of orders in milliseconds. Coscia designed two computer programs he allegedly used in 17 different CME Group markets and three different markets on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, including gold, soybean meal, soybean oil, high-grade copper, Euro FX and Pounds FX currency futures, to implement his fraudulent strategy. It was illegal for traders to place orders in the form of “bids” to buy or “offers” to sell a futures contract with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before execution.

Between August and October 2011, Coscia allegedly defrauded participants in the CME Group and ICE Futures Europe markets. In August 2011, Coscia began a high-frequency trading strategy in which he entered large-volume orders that he intended to immediately cancel before they could filled by other traders, the indictment alleges.

Coscia devised this strategy to create a false impression regarding the number of contracts available in the market, and to fraudulently induce other market participants to react to the deceptive market information he created, the indictment states. His strategy moved the markets in a direction favorable to him, enabling him to purchase contracts at prices lower than, or sell contracts at prices higher than, the prices available in the market before he entered and canceled his large-volume orders, it adds. Coscia then allegedly repeated this strategy in the opposite direction to immediately obtain a profit by buying futures contracts at a lower price than he paid for them, or by selling contracts at a higher price than he paid for them. Each such trade allegedly occurred in a matter of milliseconds. As a result of the aggregate of those fraudulent high-frequency trades, Coscia illegally profited approximately $1,592,867 over approximately three months, the indictment alleges.

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Posted at 2:26 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim,

Here is an update on this significant case that is pending before the ECJ. If the ECJ overrules the German Constitutional Court, I recall people saying some months ago that this would create a constitutional crisis in Germany.

CIGA Craig

Craig,

Legally the ECB cannot do QE.

Jim

ECB OMT Challenge to Be Heard by EU Top Court on Oct. 14
By Aoife White and Karin Matussek Sep 23, 2014 3:51 AM MT

European Union judges will review oral arguments in a German challenge to a European Central Bank bond-buying plan next month.

The European Court of Justice, the EU’s highest tribunal, will consider arguments in the case filed by a lawmaker and a group of German academics at an Oct. 14 hearing, the court said on its website.

Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court put the fate of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions initiative, credited with easing the euro debt crisis, partly in the hands of the Luxembourg-based ECJ in February. The German court expressed doubts about the legality of the measure in a six to two vote and asked the EU judges to clarify some issues.

After a ruling from the EU court, the case will be sent back to the German judges who have to make a final ruling on the national cases pending over the issue.

The German court said in its February judgment that the OMT is likely to violate EU rules because it amounts to economic policy that is outside the ECB’s mandate. The plan may also be seen as monetary financing of governments, which the EU treaties ban, according to the German judges.

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Dear Jim,

For all the cities who are in bankruptcy or considering it, this judge has just set the direction for reducing government pensions for city workers. This is big!!! Stockton has considered a reduction in retirement fund payments of up to 60%. This will certainly impact Detroit, Mi and Riverside, Ca. The contracts that increased these payments over the years are no longer applicable and they can be altered to suit the needs of the local governments to split the default between the debtors and the employees. This is one more hit against the middle class and pulls money out of circulation.

CIGA Larry

Judge rules Stockton can sever CalPERS pensions; Wall Street approves
By Dale Kasler
Published: Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014 – 12:12 pm

A bankruptcy judge handed CalPERS and organized labor a decision they’ve long feared Wednesday, declaring the city of Stockton has the right to reduce pension payments and even sever ties with the powerful pension fund.

The verbal ruling from U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Klein was groundbreaking. It pierced CalPERS’ aura of invincibility and made clear, for the first time, that public employee pensions in California aren’t sacred. Two years after Stockton filed for bankruptcy protection, buried under more than $200 million in bond debt, a judge has declared that a municipality can walk away from its obligations to the California Public Employees’ Retirement System.

Klein’s ruling was prompted by a legal protest from Franklin Templeton Investments, which is due to be repaid just $4 million on a $36 million loan it made to the city during better economic times. Franklin wants a better deal from Stockton even if it comes at the expense of the pensions.

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Jim,

This is a significant decision that will likely be used in many other muni BK cases.

CIGA Craig

Bankruptcy Judge in California Challenges Sanctity of Pensions
By Mary Williams Walsh
October 1, 2014 9:15 pm

A federal bankruptcy judge on Wednesday upended the widely held belief that public workers’ pensions have a special status in California that makes them impossible to cut, further chipping away at the idea that pensions are sacrosanct in a municipal bankruptcy.

The ruling, which came during a hearing on a plan by the City of Stockton to exit bankruptcy, did not order the city to cut its pension plan or take any specific action. The judge said that he needed more time to reflect on Stockton’s situation and that he would decide Oct. 30 whether the city could emerge from its two-year bankruptcy or whether it still had more work to do.

But the decision, by Judge Christopher M. Klein of the Eastern District of California, dealt a blow to California’s giant state-led pension system, known as Calpers, which has been leading efforts to preserve defined-benefit pensions nationwide.

He did not dispute that Stockton would be billed $1.6 billion to leave Calpers and said such a termination fee “can be seen as a golden handcuff.”But in bankruptcy, he said, Stockton could legally refuse to pay the bill because it arose from the city’s contract with Calpers, and contracts are broken routinely in bankruptcy.

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