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Market Commentary From Monty Guild

Introducing the Guild Basic Needs IndexTM

Guild Investment Management has long believed that the existing indices used to measure cost of living changes in the United States are inadequate and misleading.

For instance, the widely quoted inflation index — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — is currently based on data collected from spending surveys

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Market Commentary From Monty Guild

Should You Take Market Jitters about European Debt and a China Slowdown Seriously?

Investors worry too much.  Each spring season, as we reported recently, fears about a world economic slowdown sprout forth and bloom just like the perennials in your garden.  Stocks retreat and commodities decline.  In recent years, the fear has involved foreboding

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Market Commentary From Monty Guild

Dear CIGAs,

We see no reason to panic about the current price declines in stocks, gold and oil.  Our long-term view gives us a different perspective. We have a plan and lots of cash, which we intend to use to purchase our favorite investment areas on dips.

In summary, nothing has changed, except for

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U.S. Economy — The Big Picture

Dear CIGAs,

A mess by all accounts—and seemingly getting messier.

As we have been saying for some time, U.S. economic growth is stuck in the slow lane.  Very slow lane.  There are few signs of any significant lane changing ahead.

We have seen a serious slide in the American standard of living over the

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Market Commentary From Guild Investment

Unrest and Turmoil = Rising Oil Prices

The continuing political upheaval in North Africa and the Middle East along with the epic disasters in Japan are sowing chaos and confusion throughout the business world.  In this week’s newsletter, we will examine just how all this is playing out.

Let’s look at the Arab world

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Market Commentary From Monty Guild

Selling U.S. and Canada and Continuing to Favor Oil and Gold

This week’s letter is short. As we have mentioned in the past we believe that oil will go to $150 per barrel this year and we believe that this will be  promulgated by a possible change of regime in Saudi Arabia  and other 

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Market Commentary From Monty Guild

Dear CIGAs,

Inflation, Oil, Gold, Ignorance, and The Media

We hear many so-called pundits say that rising oil prices will dramatically damage growth in the emerging world.  However, we see the contrary as more likely to occur: rising oil prices will unleash more inflation in the emerging world, which may actually accelerate economic activity. 

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Market Commentary From Monty Guild

Boom!

Governments are being brought to their knees with startling speed.  I spent this past Saturday in Bangkok watching the Asian news channels showing the demonstrations and various news feeds from Al Jazerra, CNN, and the BBC.  I saw rioting all over the Middle East in at least six or seven countries, and the

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