In The News Today

Posted at 9:32 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Dear CIGAs,

The Story will be told here, early Wednesday morning from Dar es Salaam.

80.570 -0.080 (-0.10%)
2013-11-27 07:56:00, 30 MIN DELAY

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Gold moves from the West to East, and soon the East will make the physical price 24 hours a day. Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore will lead the Golden Victory parade.

China is buying on a strategy of "Free Gold." The West is being a patsy with their paper gold hype manipulations.

The West is its own dire and worst enemy.

China imported 131,19 tonnes of gold in October
Frank Knopers 27 november 2013

China increased the import of gold through Hong Kong last month, according to the latest data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department sent to Reuters. The gross gold import in the month of October came in at 147,92 tonnes, of which 131,19 tons remained as net import. China has imported more than 100 tonnes of gold each month in the past six months, way more than in previous years. And while gross imports were lower than the 223,5 tonne record high in March, net imports in October were on par at about 130 tonnes.

In September gross imports from Hong Kong into China were at 116,3 tonnes and net imports amounted to 109,4 tonnes. The following graph shows that gross imports in the first ten months of 2013 have doubled compared to the same period in 2012. We are still accumulating net import data from last year. When we have those data, we will start publishing the net imports into China. Those figures are closer to the real gold demand from China.

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Gross Chinese gold imports in 2013 and 2012

China imports a record amount of gold this year

In the first ten months of 2013 China has imported a net amount of 957,22 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong. With two months to go it is quite obvious that China will surpass the 1.000 tonne estimate by the World Gold Council. Gross imports for this year stand at 1.262,82 tonnes, double the amount in the same period of last year. Whether net imports increased by the same amount remains to be seen, but the increase in 2013 is by all means very significant.

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1,000 Tons, 1,200 Tons Or 1,750 Tons?: How High Are China’s Real Gold Imports?
Nov 21 2013, 15:13

Much earlier in the year, GFMS, via the World Gold Council, predicted that China would import around 1,000 metric tons of gold this year. Ever since then this figure has been quoted in nearly all media articles, notwithstanding the rising gold import tally through Hong Kong, suggesting that China will import perhaps over 1100 tons this year through this route alone. No doubt at some stage GFMS and the World Gold Council will adjust their total for Chinese imports to reflect the more recent figures.

But this kind of re-adjustment will still almost certainly not be anywhere near the true figure for Chinese imports. Reuters for example has just come up with a prediction, based on its own research which suggests a higher figure. If we extrapolate figures for gold imports via Hong Kong for this year it looks as though this total will reach more than 1,100 tons – and Reuters reckons that another 133 tons will have been shipped in through other ports – notably Shanghai – giving a total of at least 1,230 tons for the year. But we would aver that this too represents a substantial under-estimate of the true position and real Chinese gold imports this year will reach between 1,700 and 1,800 tons at least – or about 75% of non-Chinese new mined gold supply. This assumes the global total of new mined gold will be around 2,750 tons of which China will produce around 430 tons leaving the non-Chinese total newly mined gold supply at around 2,320 tons.

How do we arrive at this figure? Quite simple really. Although the Chinese government does not produce any statistics on mainland China gold imports, the country’s Central Bank, The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), does produce an annual figure for Chinese gold consumption, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) reports all gold deliveries via the exchange – and if one adds up all the SGE’s monthly figures they tally exactly at the year end with the total consumption figure released by the PBOC. So the amount of physical gold shipped through the SGE is effectively what China consumes in the year. This data has all been gleaned by gold analyst Koos Jansen, who takes a particular interest in China’s gold consumption and imports.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The China Sea dispute is all about energy. On one hand the USA seems it wishes to throw away Saudi Arabia but would go to war with China over oil yet to be exploited.

It is not the Japan Sea in question. That makes no sense and highly questions the supposed irrelevance of the Saudi Kingdom in the Iran question.

Shortchanging the Saudis will come back to haunt the West. That is certain.

Japan to deploy ships after China detected drilling in disputed waters – report
Published time: July 18, 2013 16:50

Japan has allegedly ordered geological survey ships to prepare for possible deployment after the Chinese were reportedly detected drilling in Japanese waters near the disputed area of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, a source told Reuters.

The Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) has been ordered to put both its survey ships , the Shigen and the Hakurei, on standby and to prepare to deploy without any foreign members of staff on board, according to the source .

Japan warned China not to expand gas exploration in the East China Sea on Thursday, following a media report according to which Chinese state-run oil companies plan to develop seven new gas fields in the sea, possibly siphoning gas from the seabed beneath waters claimed by Japan, Kyodo news agency reported.

"We will never accept development of gas fields in the area over which there are conflicting claims in a unilateral manner," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said at a press conference. Though he added that officials are still gathering information to confirm the report.

After in 1968 it was discovered that oil reserves might be found under the sea near the territory of the islands in the East China Sea, sovereignty over them has been long disputed by Japan  and China.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The price of gold will be determined, like today, in the market for the US dollar which is dying by means of a "Thousand Cuts." Therefore gold will trade back to and above its high as it seeks $3200 to $3500. All the blog and MSM MOPE against gold will in the end fail.

GEAB N°79 is available! 2014 – Internationalization of the Yuan, the opening of Saudi Arabia, the implosion of the EU, and three of the last pillars of the dollar crumble
- Public announcement GEAB N°79 (November 16, 2013) -

“It was night, and the rain fell; and, falling, it was rain, but, having fallen, it was blood.” These words of Edgar Allan Poe (1) apply perfectly to the slow process of global dislocation now in progress, where seemingly innocuous events – like the “rain” – combine to undermine the foundations of an international system that is dying, hence the “blood.” If the process is slow, if the events seem trivial, it is paradoxically because the crisis is the first truly global systemic crisis, one much deeper than the one in 1929, affecting all countries and overwhelming the heart of the system. Whereas 1929 was the adolescent crisis of a new world power, the US, we now experience the last days of an incurable, and incurable that had been the world’s sole superpower since 1945. But the whole organization of the world was built around the US, and it is no one’s interests for it to collapse before a complete decoupling. So it is for everyone to safeguard the usual appearances while ensuring a smooth transition, which explains the slow crash in progress.

It’s a little like the parent who sneaks out of the nursery, hoping to avoid waking the baby and starting up the bawling again, but the baby is the dollar, and the parents are unworthy, for they are abandoning it altogether.

China is the master of this art, but we can see that all other countries are moving away from the US, in a more or less subtle fashion, like Saudi Arabia for example. (2) For the EU, one of the last Americanist bastions outside the US itself, the task is more difficult. Our team anticipates that the European elections of 2014, along with the inevitable rise of extreme right-wing and euroskeptic forces, will lead to an implosion of the current EU framework, with the possibility for Euroland to fill in the place. We analyze in detail the case of Europe in this issue.

The rapid internationalization of the Yuan, causing a decline in the central role of the dollar; the loss of Saudi support, a key part of the petrodollar edifice; and the loss of the Americanist bastion of the EU, replaced by a Euroland relying on the Euro, are all threats to the three remaining essential pillars of American power, which will disappear in 2014, precipitating considerable global upheaval.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Time will prove this true.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

With things getting very rough for Morgan, who knows, the gold manipulation on the Comex might be next to go public.

U.K., German Regulators Scrutinize Gold, Silver Pricing
By Francesca Freeman and Madeleine Nissen
The Wall Street Journal
Tuesday, November 26, 2013

The price-setting processes for gold and silver in the spot market are the latest to come under review from global regulators, with authorities in Europe investigating the mechanisms for both precious metals.

In the U.K., the Financial Conduct Authority is reviewing how the gold price is set, said a person familiar with the investigation, who added that it is at an early stage.

In Germany, the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, or BaFin, is looking into the rate-setting processes for gold and silver, according to a representative at the regulator.

The probe into precious metals markets adds to a long list of global investigations into the possible manipulation of some financial markets. Authorities are also examining the price-setting mechanisms for oil, currencies and interest rates. …

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Iran says Obama administration LIED about details of nuke deal, claiming uranium enrichment will actually INCREASE
By David Martosko, U.s. Political Editor
PUBLISHED: 13:14 GMT, 27 November 2013 | UPDATED: 15:15 GMT, 27 November 2013

Iranian officials claimed on Tuesday that the Obama administration concocted a fact sheet on a landmark nuclear agreement that doesn’t match what they endorsed over the weekend.

Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham said the version of the pact released by the White House ‘is a one-sided interpretation of the agreed text in Geneva and some of the explanations and words in the sheet contradict the text of the Joint Plan of Action.’

At issue are several differences between the White House’s summary of the accord and the plain text of the agreement between Iran, the U.S. and five other industrialized nations – specifically the administration’s claim that Iran has agreed to stop enriching uranium for the next six months.

On Saturday evening the White House said in a statement that Western nations and Iran had ‘reached a set of initial understandings that halts the progress of Iran’s nuclear program and rolls it back in key respects.’

President Obama delivered an address 17 minutes later, announcing that under the agreement, ‘Iran cannot use its next-generation centrifuges, which are used for enriching uranium.’

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

In light of recent events this is a very interesting question.

Is Shinzo Abe’s ‘new nationalism’ a throwback to Japanese imperialism?
The escalating standoff in the Pacific is seen by Beijing and Seoul as proof that Japan is reviving its military mindset

Simon Tisdall in Yokosuka
theguardian.com, Wednesday 27 November 2013 10.46 GMT

The deepening confrontation between Japan and its giant neighbour,China, over a disputed island chain, which this week sucked in US military forces flying B-52 bombers, holds no terrors for Kenji Fujii, captain of the crack Japanese destroyer JS Murasame.

As a battleship-grey drizzle sweeps across Yokosuka harbour, home port to the Japan maritime self-defence force and the US Seventh Fleet, Fujii stands four-square on his helicopter deck, a totemic red Japanese sun-ray ensign flapping at the flagstaff behind him. His stance exudes quiet purposefulness.

The Murasame, armed with advanced missiles, torpedoes, a 76mm rapid-fire turret cannon and a vicious-looking Phalanx close-in-weapons-system (CIWS) Gatling gun, is on the frontline of Japan’s escalating standoff with China and its contentious bid to stand up for itself and become a power in the world once again. And Fujii clearly relishes his role in the drama.

Asked whether he will be taking his ship south, to the hotly disputed waters off the Senkaku islands in the East China sea (which China calls the Diaoyu and claims as its own), Fujii smiles and bows. His executive officer, acting as translator, explains that "for security and operational reasons" the captain cannot comment. The situation there is just too sensitive.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE to infinity.

Housing Boom Fizzles in Some Hot Markets
Monday, 25 Nov 2013 07:23 PM
By Dan Weil

Soaring home prices and rising mortgage rates are cooling things down in some American cities that enjoyed the strongest housing booms during the past 18 months, according to aWall Street Journal survey of 28 major metropolitan areas.

In the year through September, home prices surged more than 33 percent in Las Vegas and Sacramento, Calif., and more than 20 percent in San Francisco, Phoenix, San Diego, and Orange County, Calif., according to Zillow.

But in the final three months of that period, prices gained only 1 percent in Orange County, 2 percent in San Diego and 3 percent in San Francisco.

At the same time, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates jumped to 4.22 percent last week from 3.35 percent in early May, according to Freddie Mac.

"There’s been a great deal of sticker shock," John Wheaton, vice president of mortgage lending at Guaranteed Rate in Costa Mesa, Calif., told The Journal.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE to infinity.

Insight: A new wave of U.S. mortgage trouble threatens
Tue, Nov 26 06:29 AM EST
By Peter Rudegeair

(Reuters) – U.S. borrowers are increasingly missing payments on home equity lines of credit they took out during the housing bubble, a trend that could deal another blow to the country’s biggest banks.

The loans are a problem now because an increasing number are hitting their 10-year anniversary, at which point borrowers usually must start paying down the principal on the loans as well as the interest they had been paying all along.

More than $221 billion of these loans at the largest banks will hit this mark over the next four years, about 40 percent of the home equity lines of credit now outstanding.

For a typical consumer, that shift can translate to their monthly payment more than tripling, a particular burden for the subprime borrowers that often took out these loans. And payments will rise further when the Federal Reserve starts to hike rates, because the loans usually carry floating interest rates.

The number of borrowers missing payments around the 10-year point can double in their eleventh year, data from consumer credit agency Equifax shows. When the loans go bad, banks can lose an eye-popping 90 cents on the dollar, because a home equity line of credit is usually the second mortgage a borrower has. If the bank forecloses, most of the proceeds of the sale pay off the main mortgage, leaving little for the home equity lender.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE to Infinity.

Fed Reveals New Concerns About Long-Term U.S. Slowdown
By Rich Miller
November 27, 2013 11:03 AM EST

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues are suffering through their own form of cognitive dissonance: revealing new concerns about the economy’s long-term prospects even as they forecast faster growth in 2014.

Worker productivity, a key component of an economy’s health, has risen at an annual clip of 1 percent during the last four years, as the U.S. has struggled to recover from the worst recession since the Great Depression. That’s less than half the 2.2 percent average gain since 1983, according to data from the Labor Department in Washington.

“Slower growth in productivity might have become the norm,” the central bankers noted at their Oct. 29-30 meeting, according to the minutes released last week. That’s a switch from past comments by Bernanke that the deceleration probably was temporary and would end as the expansion continued.

A combination of forces may be at work. Chastened by the deep economic slump, corporate executives have reduced spending plans for factories, equipment, research and development. Startup businesses have been held back as would-be entrepreneurs find it harder to get financing from still-cautious lenders. And out-of-work Americans have seen their skills atrophy the longer they’re without jobs.

“We’re in a slow-growth period of unknown duration,” said Edmund Phelps, a professor at Columbia University in New York and winner of the 2006 Nobel prize in economics.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What more evident smoking gun do you need than this which screws metals market misconduct?

Our battle cry is to "Free Gold" from the machinations of these bullies who make money by hook and crook, using fiat paper gold, not by merit utilizing physical gold. Letters once again are paper.

Exclusive – JPMorgan tried but failed to satisfy Fed on metals warehousing: letters
By David Sheppard and Josephine Mason
LONDON/NEW YORK Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:04am EST

(Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve was pressing JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) to distance itself from its metals warehousing business more than a year ago, documents seen by Reuters show, long before the issue became a focal point in the debate over Wall Street’s role in physical commodities trading.

A series of letters between JPMorgan’s lawyers and the Fed, released to Reuters through a Freedom of Information Act request, show Wall Street’s primary regulator took a tough stance on the bank’s efforts to hold onto the global network of Henry Bath & Sons warehouses, part of the larger RBS Sempra commodity trading business it bought in mid-2010.

The correspondence shows the Fed balked at JPMorgan’s request to turn the one-time trading assets into a strictly arms-length financial investment back in June 2012, and told the bank it must provide quarterly updates on what it was doing to either comply with banking rules, or sell the business.

The Fed also pressured JPMorgan to dilute the amount of metal held by its own traders in Henry Bath, an issue that has riled major metal consumers and critics of a copper investment fund the bank was trying to launch.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE to infinity.

Consumer confidence falls in November
Nov. 26, 2013, 10:26 a.m. EST
By Jeffry Bartash

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The consumer confidence index fell in November to 70.4 from 71.2 from in October, as Americans grew somewhat more worried about future employment and income prospects, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the index to rise to 72.4. The future expectations index slipped to 69.3 from 72.2, while the present situation index dipped to 72.0 from 72.6. "When looking ahead six months, consumers expressed greater concern about future job and earning prospects, but remain neutral about economic conditions," said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. "All in all, with such uncertainly prevailing, this could be a challenging holiday season for retailers."

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