Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The new $100 dollar note unveiled, courtesy of CIGA David Madison-style.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Courtesy of CIGA JB Slear.
A brief update to yesterday’s post. Behold, GLD and SLV “break-away” gaps!
CIGA, Bo Polny
I’ve been reading your site since 2003 and been an avid listener in relation to your missives pertaining to methodology in projecting the fundamental and technical positioning of the gold price going forward. To this end I have augmented a Fractal analysis approach based on the 1972-1980 gold price curve, combined with your fundamental and technical principles including:
· A Future US Gold Certificate Ratio
· US Treasury International Capital (TIC) Assets & Liabilities
· Log price Charts utilizing French Curves with multiple touch points
· Fibonacci Price Extensions
To pin price highs on the fractal chart I use a TIC analysis utilizing the 261 M Oz. of US Treasury ‘Gold plated Tungsten’ to balance the Assets and Liabilities of the US Treasury indicating a Gold valuation of $14,300 / Oz. based on most recent 2012 data. As illustrated in the table below, this will easily expand to $50,000 / Oz. by 2018 at expansion rates of 20% per year in foreign liabilities. (Thanks to Obama & Abe)
Using a Monthly Gold candle chart and assuming we close out the month of April over $1,530 (which seems likely as I write), the fractal analysis projects time and price for the next 5 years, including a prediction of approx. $3,300 gold by November 2013 at the 161.8% Fib extension. This is followed by a rapid rise to $14,300 in exactly 2 years time in April 2015. Using this technique, I think you will comfortably see your 20% overshoot above $50,000 / Oz. without any problem by 2018.
Fundamentally I see no problem with these objectives as in 1974 crude oil had quadrupled from 1971 levels via threatened ramping to a 25% crude supply cut from OPEC nations based on the Arab Israeli War. A similar situation exists also today with the potential closure of the straits of Hormuz via war through which traverses over 30% of world crude.
All western above ground crude inventory would be exhausted at current rates of usage if this waterway remained closed for more than 6 months. The resulting energy inflation would decimate bond prices and put a fire under gold that would be unquenchable. I’m sure that a gold hypothecation scandal in addition to this would take us the rest of the way to the $80K+ highs.
I’m interested in your thoughts. Am I on the right track?
Dear Mr. Sinclair,
Just to update you on the situation of gold in HK.
I visited the headquarters of a major bank here in HK trying to buy some gold coins. I could only buy two. I commented it used to be plenty in stock at the bank. The teller said there weren’t any gold coins left a few days ago.
Anyway, I switched to some bars.
I was also told yesterday that some gold and jewelry retailers in the New Territories had to temporarily close as too many customers were trying to get into their stores.
Thanks for your effort in educating and informing us about the gold markets.
As more and more pundits come to the realization of where gold is heading it is comforting to have had the very same knowledge for 10 plus years.
Thank you is all I can offer, prayer for your long life and health will be a priority.
The recognition that gold can and will rise to prices unexpected even 19 months ago is the fact that there is a huge bull market in physical with a distinct shortage of physical gold.
That is the ultimate challenge to the paper gold scam. Take the manipulators out of the leveraged game and their ability to create phony markets is finished.
Warning! Stocks to Crash, Gold to Top $10,000: Albert Edwards
Published: Thursday, 25 Apr 2013 | 7:59 AM ET
By: Jenny Cosgrave, Staff Writer
Gold prices will top $10,000 per ounce, the stock market will tank and Treasurys will yield less than 1 percent, Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards forecast in a trademark bearish report on Thursday.
"My working experience of the last 30 years has convinced me that policymakers’ efforts to manage the economic cycle have actually made things far more volatile… The current round of quantitative easing will be no different," said Edwards in a weekly strategy report.
"We have written previously, quoting Marc Faber, that ‘The Fed Will Destroy the World’ through their money printing. Rapid inflation surely beckons. But that will not occur without firstly a Japanese-style loss of confidence in policymakers as we dive back into recession and produce dislocative market moves."
Just a quick note to thank you for all the invaluable information over the years and to personally ask you to come to London for a Q&A session if you have the time to schedule it.
Please see the emailed response I received enquiring about shipping dates for an order I placed (this is a major bullion dealer in Germany with preferred dealer status with the Perth Mint. They’re accepting orders, but aren’t receiving stock from the Perth Mint…).
I’ve redacted the CS person’s name.
Unfortunately we are currently waiting for a new delivery of 100g Perth Mint gold bullions due to production problems at the Perth Mint. The average delivery time at the moment is unfortunately about 2 weeks.
Thank you very much in advance for your understanding.
Have a nice day!
With best regards / Mit freundlichen Grüßen,
Customer Service & Sales
Jewellers Trade Services Partners
I haven’t followed the Boston Marathon News, nor looked at any of it on the internet, no photos, videos, news feeds, etc. I don’t own a TV and would avoid MSM anyway.
This is probably obvious to anyone looking, but…
It struck me that the Boston reaction by the government may be a test case for martial law. Now, bombs would not be needed in the future for military involvement, only alleged threats. The feeling is ominous.
When my daughter Melissa was about 6, one drizzly, dreary Saturday she asked me, "daddy, will it ever stop raining?" I said, "honey, I really don’t know. All I can tell you is it always has."
The Fed printed $1 trillion new Federal Reserve notes last year. Will the price of gold go up or stay the same? I’m not going to say, because most of you are not 6 years old and I don’t want to insult your intelligence.
Hope you’ re well, chief. Been a helluva week.
I have heard that, despite having no mandate to buy stocks, the Fed will nonetheless purchase S&P futures (raising their price) so that the investment banks can come in and arbitrage the move, by selling the high priced futures contracts and buying the underlying stock. (this supports the stock market).
Yet it appears other central banks throughout the world are buying stocks hand over fist. (See the Bloomberg article below).
Many an educated person has said the equities market will end badly. Nothing but paper money supporting it. No recovery, adjusted earnings, contrived promising outlooks, deteriorating economic stats, etc.
So… if the markets do collapse, big time, nobody except the central banks using our money will lose. Another bailout in action using taxpayer money.
I see this not as supporting the markets to improve consumer confidence, but a necessary move to stave off an inevitable market meltdown.
Just my opinion.
The Fed and other central banks can buy public shares and any type of bond they wish. This is a bag for the Plunge Protection Team along with the Exchange Stabilization Fund.
They focus on stock indices. This is why when the Dow takes a 400 point hit on the downside it always opens plus $20.
I know a great minerals company the Fed really should be buying.
There is nothing new here.
Central Banks Load Up on Equities
By Sarah Jones – 2013-04-25T12:34:36Z
Central banks, guardians of the world’s $11 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, are buying stocks in record amounts as falling bond yields push even risk- averse investors toward equities.
In a survey of 60 central bankers this month by Central Banking Publications and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, 23 percent said they own shares or plan to buy them. The Bank of Japan, holder of the second-biggest reserves, said April 4 it will more than double investments in equity exchange-traded funds to 3.5 trillion yen ($35.2 billion) by 2014. The Bank of Israel bought stocks for the first time last year while the Swiss National Bank and the Czech National Bank have boosted their holdings to at least 10 percent of reserves.
Some central banks, including the Fed in Washington and the Bank of England in London, have no mandate to buy stocks directly. The Fed has $42.6 billion in reserves and the Bank of England controls $65.1 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
When a world power has intervened in another nation’s civil war, it almost always ended badly even if it was successful.
Why? Even France, when it intervened in the US Revolution, was led to bankruptcy and hence the heads of Louis XVI and Marie rolled. Never intervene in the internal affairs of other nations.
This looks like an opportunity to open the door to another war.
White House: Evidence Syria Used Chemical Weapons
by Scott Neuman
April 25, 201312:53 PM
The White House has acknowledged that U.S. intelligence assessments indicate "with varying degrees of confidence" that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons during the country’s ongoing civil war, but has cautioned that it still needs more evidence.
Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, speaking in the United Arab Emirates, said that such an action "violates every convention of warfare."
"We have limited but persuasive information from various sources showing chemical weapons use in Syria, including sarin. This is extremely concerning. Use of chemical weapons is a war crime," a Foreign Office spokesman said in a statement.
President Obama has described the use of chemical weapons as a "red line" and a "game changer," suggesting that it could prompt the U.S. and perhaps other Western countries to intervene more directly in Syria’s civil war.
Kissinger and Paulson are in Beijing. Is something serious going on? Two of the world’s greatest deal makers are not in China as tourists.
Xi meets former US heavyweights
Updated: 2013-04-25 02:32
By WU JIAO and PU ZHENDONG (China Daily)
Kissinger, Paulson arrive in Bejing seeking to further strengthen ties
Cabinet members, governors and top military officers are among the guests from the United States who have met with President Xi Jinping just weeks after he was elected China’s top leader.
The guest list got longer on Wednesday, with the addition of two former US politicians who are now heavyweight think-tank figures — Henry Kissinger and Henry Paulson.
Analysts said the world’s two largest economies are engaged in unprecedented frequent communication to keep bilateral ties smooth and to avoid misunderstandings after each has just concluded their leadership transitions.
Kissinger, the former US national security adviser and secretary of state who is known as the architect of China-US relations with his secret visit to China in 1971, is no stranger to Xi. The two met several times before Xi became president in March. In the meeting on Wednesday, Xi wished the veteran diplomat a happy birthday in advance of his 90th birthday next month, and also wished him "good health and longevity".
Facing a guest who is a highly respected foreign policy analyst in the US, Xi said China and the US should further expand their high-level exchanges and dialogue, identify shared interests and properly handle disputes.
Just as in magic, it pays to watch the OTHER hand and not the one you are misdirected to watch.
The paper precious metals markets have been a staged ‘magic’ act, one of deception and misdirection. The sole purpose of this charade is to steal the sheeple’s real wealth (hard assets) and con them into a phoney NeoFeudal Debtocracy of paper contingent liabilities (for Krugmanites read: empty paper promises that cannot and will not be kept). The act is, of course, aided and abetted by a complicit ‘parrot’ mainstream and financial media complex which provides ‘cover’ for the massive fraud being perpetrated by Central Banks, TBTF Banks, and career politicians.
The chart attached here is the OTHER hand you are not supposed to see, or even consider. Presented in USD, EUR, and GBP is today’s comparison of Gold, Silver, and Equities market performance. If you look only at YTD, you clearly see the effect QEternity has had in ‘juicing’ the equities markets, and why it is so vital for the central planners to try and ‘manage’ Gold and Silver. BUT look closely at the 5-YR column, this is the important one. When the paper game collapses (as it certainly will) this performance will then pale by comparison…by orders of magnitude. "Got paper?" will not be what everyone will be asking in future, it will be "got Gold?"