At the beginning of the week, the strong start to the beta phase rally of the current short-term cycle suggested the likely transition to a bullish translation. Today, gold closed sharply higher, moving above the last alpha high (AH). The close well above the AH during the beta phase rally reconfirms the transition to a bullish translation and favors additional strength during the next short-term cycle.
With respect to technical analysis, the move well above congestion resistance in the 1,740 area is a short-term bullish development that reconfirms the reaction from early November. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall on the daily chart, favoring a return to the previous high of the uptrend from May near 1,793.
Our Gold Currency Index (GCI), which tracks the intrinsic value of gold as an international currency, also experienced a strong advance today. The slight positive divergence between the GCI and gold in US dollar terms that we noted at the beginning of the week remains in place, favoring additional short-term strength.
From an intermediate-term perspective, we are three weeks into the new cycle from the beginning of November. A subsequent weekly close well above the last half cycle high (HCH) near 1,793 would reconfirm the bullish translation from May and favor additional intermediate-term strength.
With respect to technical analysis, the consolidation formation on the weekly chart that we have been monitoring since early Septembercontinues to track the bullish scenario that we outlined at the time, favoring an eventual resumption of the secular bull market.
The consolidation formation continues to exhibit a bullish character and a subsequent weekly close well above congestion resistance in the 1,795 area would be a significant breakout that would forecast a move up to new all-time highs in late 2012 or early 2013. Therefore, it will be important to continue monitoring gold closely during the next few weeks.
Senior Market Technician
Prometheus Market Insight
Dear Mr Sinclair,
I am one of your royal followers living in Australia.
I will not sell my gold unless I have to such as putting food on the table.
Do you envisage the day we will sell some gold to lock in profit? Logically if gold is money, this will never happen. Am I correct to assume this will be the case one day?
Kind regards to you and your faithfully friends,
Right now Judy stick to you convictions. There will come a time when gold reaches an overvaluation. However this will NOT be followed by the 1980 type collapse.
In 1980 gold was not moving towards the system. In 2012 gold is definitely heading towards and into the new reserve currency.
There might be a 15% reaction from overvaluation, but that is it. I will certainly let you know when I see overvaluation coming.
I will be ridiculed as much then as when I suggested $1650 was in the cards for gold.
I think I see the wave of the future… holiday dinner at department stores
The sheeple all march but one way, to debauchery as a means of being dumbed down and therefore controlled.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
CIGA Perry does an excellent recap as we look forward to $2111 in gold.
Hope you are well and thanks for looking out for us once again.
Looks like the big boys are buying gold driving the price up to take the Sheeple (OPM) money before the weekend, or before 1PM ET today. Or maybe they are running to safety not knowing what will happen over the weekend in the middle east and running to real money "GOLD" as safety.
This price just keeps climbing this morning! Thank goodness I listened to you in and around $700, I sleep like the puppy in a red blanket on your site at night. Insured for 33 1/3% of all liquid, and waiting to see the events unfold between mid 2014 to early 2015.
Everyone talk about giving gold back at overvaluation, to profit and be rich. The reason I buy it is to be Insured and if the riches come so be it. No one ever suggest to what institution or to whom to sell it when the time comes to profit or reclaim their losses endured through inflation.
I read your columns daily and you have said this time we wont need to hand it over, it will be +/- 15% to 20% but not tied to the new reserve currency such as the IMF/SDRs. I see SDRs in iphone currency apps now so that just verifies my suspicions. As you said before, "Gold, is running back into the system, not away". I see it as a reason that in early Jan 2013 they (central banks) are more than likely approving Gold as a Tier 1 asset (from 15% to 100%), as to shore up their balance sheet for their losses and balance their balance sheets. But it has to happen slowly, or you will disturb the social order.
There is a lot of emphasis around those years (2014 and 2015). I pay attention to the facts and remove the static noise made by MSM.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving,
Enjoy the weekend!
Good Day Mr Jim,
"In the most recent 13-f filing on November 14th, the Soros fund increased its position in gold via the GLD fund from 884,400 shares, to 1.3+ million shares. That represents a sum of about $200 million. The fund increased its position in the GDX gold miners ETF from 1 million shares, to over 2.3 million, it added a 1.7 million share position in Kinross Gold, and finally, maintained a nearly 2.4 million share position in the GDXJ junior gold miners ETF.
But it seems I left something out. Along with all the other financial news editors.
The Soros Fund added what appears to be a $9 million call option position on the GDX."
This really gives me a boost. Is Soros "trustwothy", I mean, is he for real, not a show to bait and switch? I think he sits with major Banker types so i am suspicious. Do you have anything on him in this regard.
Soros is an old fox who will do whatever he deems necessary for the success of his ventures.
A man that rich is smart and dangerous. It is not good to get in his way.
He is near the top of the list of the financial feeding chain. He would consider this a compliment.