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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.

- Gain in Inflation-Adjusted March Retail Sales Was Not Statistically Significant
- First-Quarter 2012 Consumer Income Increasingly Constrained
- Sustainable Economic Growth Is Not Possible Without Underlying Growth in Income and Credit

SPECIAL COMMENTARY. No. 429: Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales
Web-page: http://www.shadowstats.com


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Yes ,but it is an election year.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes.

NY Fed April Manufacturing Index Falls Sharply
04/16/2012 | 08:56am

NEW YORK — New York manufacturing activity slowed sharply in April although employment data improved, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey released Monday.

The weak number will increase debate whether the U.S. recovery is in trouble.

The Empire State’s business conditions index fell to 6.56 this month from 20.21 in March.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the index to drop only to 17.50.

The Empire sub indexes remained positive but many weakened in April.

The new orders index fell to 6.48 this month from 6.84 in March. The shipments index declined to only 6.41 from 18.21.

Labor conditions were mixed. The employment index increased to 19.28 from 13.58, but the workweek index fell to 6.02 from 18.52.

After surging in March, cost pressures eased this month while selling prices increased. The prices paid index fell to 45.78 from 50.62 in March. But the prices received index rose to 19.28 from 13.58.

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Jim Sinclair’s commentary

The newest occupation for college graduates allows them to travel the world – virtually.

You get to meet and see new people and places, linger for days, and then kill them.

Drone pilots wanted. Gamers are preferred. The salary starts in the six figures. This is no joke.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is true all the time, however in election years it is an axiom.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is David Walker on Morning Squawk Box

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is for your information.

Complex Attack by Taliban Sends Message to the West
By ALISSA J. RUBIN, GRAHAM BOWLEY and SANGAR RAHIMI
Published: April 15, 2012

KABUL, Afghanistan — Taliban suicide bombers and gunmen barraged the diplomatic quarter and the Parliament in the Afghan capital for hours on Sunday and struck three eastern provinces as well, in a complex attack clearly designed to undermine confidence in NATO and Afghan military gains.

Though the overall confirmed death toll was low, with six victims initially reported across four provinces, they were among the most audacious coordinated terrorist attacks here in recent years. The multiple sieges ended in Kabul on Monday morning after nearly 18 hours, and silence fell on the city with roads in the bullet-strafed areas beginning to reopen. The last of the attacks to be resolved was the one on the Parliament, which ended at 7:30 a.m., according to a statement by the Afghan Interior Ministry.  “The situation is normal,” the ministry said.

The attacks came near the peak of the American military troop “surge” in Afghanistan, some of it designed around ensuring the security of the capital. And they were an early test for the Afghan National Security Forces, who responded with only minimal help from NATO, Western military officials said.

“No one is underestimating the seriousness of today’s attacks,” Gen. John R. Allen, the NATO commander, said in a statement. “Each attack was meant to send a message: that legitimate governance and Afghan sovereignty are in peril. The A.N.S.F. response itself is proof enough of that folly.”

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is targeted to compete directly with the US dollar for the preferred international contract settlement mechanism.

It will be felt in the dollar market on 2012. It cannot be otherwise.

China gives currency more freedom with new reform
By Koh Gui Qing
BEIJING | Sat Apr 14, 2012 7:02pm EDT

(Reuters) – China took a milestone step in turning the yuan into a global currency on Saturday by doubling the size of its trading band against the dollar, pushing through a crucial reform that further liberalizes its nascent financial markets.

The People’s Bank of China said it would allow the yuan to rise or fall 1 percent from a mid-point every day, effective Monday, compared with its previous 0.5 percent limit.

The timing of the move underlines Beijing’s belief that the yuan is near its equilibrium level, and that China’s economy, although cooling, is sturdy enough to handle important, long-promised, structural reforms, analysts said.

The move would help China deflect criticism of its controversial currency policy ahead of the annual spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington next week.

A slowing world economy that has pared investor expectations of a steadily rising yuan likely also gave Beijing the confidence to proceed, knowing that a larger band would not necessarily lead to a stronger currency.

"The central bank chose a good time window to enlarge the trading band. The market’s expectation for a stronger yuan is weakening," said Dong Xian’an, chief economist at Peking First Advisory in Beijing.

"The move partially clears away doubts on whether China can manage a soft landing in its economy, and makes clear China’s reform road map."

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

QE will go to infinity because there is no other alternative in a balance sheet depression in financial entities.

2008 plus more, here we come. One small difference is that QE floats all boats.

Homebuilder Outlook Plunges, Reversing Spring Rebound
Published: Monday, 16 Apr 2012 | 10:00 AM ET
By: Diana Olick

In a stark reversal during the heart of the spring housing market, confidence among the nation’s homebuilders dropped in April to levels not seen since January.

An association index measuring sentiment fell three points, changing course after seven straight months of gains.

It now stands at twenty-five; fifty is the line between positive and negative sentiment.

“What we’re seeing is essentially a pause in what had been a fairly rapid build-up in builder confidence that started last September,” said National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist David Crowe in a release.

“This is partly because interest expressed by buyers in the past few months has yet to translate into expected sales activity, but is also reflective of the ongoing challenges that are slowing the housing recovery—particularly tight credit conditions for builders and buyers, competition from foreclosures and problems with obtaining accurate appraisals,” the release goes on to say.

The three components of the index each posted a decline, both current sales and sales expectations down three points and buyer traffic down four points from March.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

For your information and understanding. QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes.

Life support is QE to infinity as there is no other functional tool. The key word here is functional.

Still On Life Support
15 Apr 2012 04:58 PM PDT

A Financial Times report, “World Economy Still on Life Support,” pours more cold water on the notion that conditions are returning to “normal.”
The world economy “remains on life support” from central banks and has deteriorated since last autumn, the latest 2 Institution-Financial Times tracking index shows, despite some recent signs of stabilisation.

Economic weakness extends across the Group of 20 leading economies, according to the TIGER (Tracking Indices for the Global Economic)

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here comes plastic money and Big Brother knows all. It is interesting that the flag is going up the flag pole of our Northern brothers to see who salutes.

Your taxes can be deducted automatically. Refunds require application.

Royal Canadian Mint Launches Mintchip(TM) Developer Challenge

OTTAWA, ONTARIO – April 4, 2012 – The Royal Canadian Mint is pleased to announce that it has launched a program for developers from across North America to test and challenge a digital currency technology and to determine its applicability to the current marketplace. The MintChip™ Developer Challenge, which will accept submissions from April 4 until August 1, is part of the Mint’s ongoing research and development efforts.

"The Royal Canadian Mint has been a trusted and respected custodian of Canadian currency for more than 100 years," said Ian E. Bennett, President and CEO of the Mint. "As part of its research and development efforts, the Mint has developed MintChip™, which could be characterized as an evolution of physical money, with the added benefits of being electronic."

MintChip™ uses innovative technology, for which the Mint has prototypes and five patents pending. It uses a secure chip to hold electronic value and a secure protocol to transfer electronic value from one chip to another.

The MintChip™ Developer Challenge will be conducted by ChallengePost and is open to North American software developers who are invited to create innovative mobile payment applications using the MintChip™ technology. The Challenge will test the robustness and applicability of thetechnology with industry experts and help to guide its further development and testing by the marketplace.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

More reasons regarding why gold. Courtesy of CIGA Pedro

Greek town develops bartering system without euro
12 April 2012 Last updated at 01:20 ET

As Greece wonders whether its debt crisis will eventually spell its exit from the euro, one town in the centre of the country, Volos, has formed an alternative local currency.

It works through a bartering system or exchange of goods.

The BBC’s Mark Lowen reports.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Our new unilateral government:

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Remember how financial TV screamed out about the so-called market action of credit default derivatives before the Greek default, yet now they remain totally silent on those boondoggles?

Spain will get all it needs just like another Euro member who has or will apply for bailouts.

Fears of Spanish bailout rise as bond yields top 6%

Spanish 10-year bond yields surged past 6% for the first time since December, and the first time since the ECB’s two three-year liquidity operations, raising fears the country might need a bailout. EU officials are due to travel to Washington this week looking for a larger IMF war chest, although while Japan might offer $60B, the U.S. has until now insisted that the EU can use its own resources. SA author Robert Broens explains how affects world markets (Sources: Kyodo, Bloomberg)