Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Sure, and it could be tomorrow or a month from now.
Euroland makes a fool of themselves almost daily. The Fed is hiding, hoping it will all go away, but it will not.
That is what the gold trend is telling you.
Deutsche Bank on Europe: ‘It’s Not Inconceivable That We Could Be In Full Crisis Mode By The End Of This Week’
Joe Weisenthal | Nov. 7, 2011, 9:30 PM
Such is the severity of the situation in Italy.
Here’s Deutsche Bank’s Colin Tan talking about the same thing that everyone else is talking about:
Its not inconceivable that we could be in full crisis mode by the end of this week. The situation with Italy feels increasingly like one that has little chance of materially improving until some extreme pressure is put on someone to act. It may not come to a head this week but the signs are not good that we can avoid an extreme situation emerging soon.
The big problem: Berlusconi doesn’t seem like he’s in an urgent mood to make reforms, the ECB isn’t doing much, and China and Brazil have dropped out of the picture.
Hence we could get a big bustup:
For us there is no obvious near-term solution other than a stress event which prompts action. Maybe the EU authorities will use the experience learnt from the Greece situation last week that a hard-line response is the only way to force countries to act in the way they want. It is a big risk but at the moment the weaker countries seem to still want the Euro enough that the ECB and Germans could play hard ball and get what they want if they are prepared to take the risk. Indeed ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch fired a warning over the weekend saying that the ECB often discusses the possibility of ending the purchase of Italian government bonds and could if it concludes Italy is not adopting promised reforms. Such talk will not encourage private capital into Italy meaning that the ECB may need to intervene more to have the required impact.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Media articles can appear in preparation for military action.
"Remember the (USS) Maine, to Hell with Spain" was the rally cry of a famous newspaper chain that put heat under the Spanish American War. To this day there is a significant school of military historian thought that says the incident was staged.
U.N. Report Details ‘Credible’ Case that Iran is Working Toward a Nuclear Weapon
Tuesday, November 8, 2011 — 1:55 PM EST
United Nations weapons inspectors released a trove of new evidence on Tuesday that they say makes a “credible” case that “Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device” and that the project may still be under way.
The long-awaited report, the harshest judgment that the International Atomic Energy Agency has ever issued in its decade-long struggle to pierce the secrecy surrounding the Iranian program, has already rekindled a debate among the Western allies and Israel about whether increased diplomatic pressure, sanctions, sabotage or military action could stop Iran’s program.
The report offered no estimate of how long it would be until Iran would be able to produce a nuclear weapon. But it laid out the case that Iran had moved far beyond the blackboard to create computer models of nuclear explosions in 2008 and 2009, and conducted experiments on nuclear triggers. The report said that starting in 2000, the Iranians constructed a vessel to conduct those tests, which was not shown to inspectors who visited the site five years later.
Those tests “are strong indicators of possible weapon development,” it said.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Softest of soft loans rise.
Consumer Credit in U.S. Climbed $7.4 Billion in September
November 07, 2011, 6:20 PM EST
By Shobhana Chandra
(Updates with economist’s comment in fourth paragraph.)
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) — Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose in September, boosted by a gain in non-revolving credit that includes financing for auto purchases and school loans.
The $7.4 billion jump was more than forecast and followed a $9.7 billion decrease the previous month, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. Credit was projected to rise $5.2 billion, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
While financing rose for big-ticket purchases, credit-card and other revolving debt declined for a third straight month, indicating Americans are paring debt elsewhere. Unemployment at 9 percent and the slowest pace of hiring in four months help explain why consumers may lack the confidence to borrow.
“Higher auto sales drove an increase in the amount of borrowing,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, who projected a $7 billion increase in credit. “The credit-card side of the report reflects elevated unemployment, which is leaving consumers hesitant to add to their debt.”
Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 32 economists ranged from gains of $1 billion to $30 billion.
Non-revolving debt, including educational loans and loans for autos and mobile homes, climbed by $8 billion in September, today’s report showed.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here comes more standup comedy.
U.S. Approaches $15 Trillion Debt Limit
By Matthew Jaffe
Nov 4, 2011 2:32pm
It will be the latest sobering economic milestone that few were hoping to see: The U.S. national debt – any day now – will soar above the $15 trillion mark.
As of this writing, the total debt is $14.97 trillion, so moving beyond the symbolic $15 trillion is a foregone conclusion. When the unwelcome milestone is reached, it will come at a volatile time both in this country and abroad.
Across the Atlantic, President Obama is in Cannes, France, for the G-20 summit that takes place as Europe is trying to finalize a bailout for debt-ridden Greece.
Back on the home front, Obama is preparing for a difficult re-election fight next year. Republican candidates from Mitt Romney to Herman Cain have pounced on the country’s economic woes in their bids to win the GOP nomination and the chance to oppose Obama. Meanwhile, the Occupy Wall Street protests directed at the nation’s financial inequalities continue to rage across the country.
In Washington, a polarized Congress has ground to a halt in the dispute on how to jumpstart the economy and reduce the country’s deficits. Only a few months ago, the acrimonious debate on Capitol Hill about raising the debt ceiling – a debate that almost caused the Treasury Department to default on its debts – illustrated the enormous partisan divide that still shows no signs of improving.
