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Jim’s Mailbox

The Battle Begins
CIGA Eric

Follow the Angels. Sorry Angels fans, we’re not talking baseball here. Jim knows what an exponential move "feels" like.

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Emails continue to convey concern over frothiness. Perhaps, but don’t let personal opinion override the message of the market. Those with wolf-like instincts are beginning to sense wounded prey.

Gold, London P.M. Fixed (Gold) and Z Scores of Secular Trend
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Goldman says QE3 likely after dovish Fed statement
CIGA Eric

QE won’t do much for job creation, but it will kick the can down the road a little further. This policy conundrum of “damned if you do or damned if you don’t” will become even more obvious as we approach 2016.

Headline: Goldman says QE3 likely after dovish Fed statement

Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday a third round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve is likely after the U.S. Federal Reserve promised to keep rates at extraordinarily low levels for at least two more years.

"We now see a greater-than-even chance that the FOMC will resume quantitative easing later this year or in early 2012. We have changed our call because today’s statement suggests that the committee’s reaction function to incoming economic news is more dovish than we had previously thought," Jan Hatzius, chief economist at the firm, said in a note.

The explicit commitment to keep policy rates low through mid-2013 and a bias to easing policy further were more aggressive than expected and resulted in Goldman penciling in QE3 after the previous $600 billion bond-purchase program ended in June.

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