The Good & Lucky Indicator

Dear CIGAs,

My Mother was Abbey’s Irish Rose. I grew up hearing all things relevant about signs. It is an Irish thing.

One of the most interesting signs is that if you put on your pajamas backwards it was a sign of luck coming. The longer the sleeping hours they remained backwards the greater the good luck.

Well, a winning Power Ball must be coming my way because today, late afternoon, I discovered I had my Carhartts on backwards. Carhartts are a type of insulated bib overalls. Yes, the bib was in the back.

I could not understand why this thing had to be taken totally off for a minor call of nature. There was no fly.

Great luck has to be on the doorstep or maybe it is here already.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is a late night view of my office. Right now it is beautiful, peaceful and cold!

^[1]

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The glee of financial TV is from Happy Pills thanks to the QE-driven Dow at 12000.

Wal-markdown
Inventory glut cuts giant retailer down to size 
By JAMES COVERT
Last Updated: 4:44 AM, January 31, 2011

Wal-Mart is coping with a bad case of post-holiday indigestion.

After bingeing on Christmas inventory, the world’s biggest retailer has been forced to take drastic steps in recent weeks to clear stores and warehouses of excess goods, according to sources close to the company.

The culprit: disappointing December sales.

"It looks like they are in danger of heading into another negative ‘comp’ for the quarter," according to an executive at a major Wal-Mart supplier, referring to the retailer’s fourth-quarter comparable-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year — a key measure of performance.

Store executives are now scrambling to dispose of unsold merchandise across a slew of product categories, including food, cosmetics, clothing and toys, according to sources.

More… ^[2]

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Last time I heard, higher energy prices are a tax on consumers.

^[3]

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Hyperinflation, the predictable result of QE, here and all over the Western world is barrelling towards North America.

QE is that which is responsible for the 12,000 Dow Happy Pill making people blind to what Egypt really is and inflation’s presence.

Governments stockpile food staples
By Javier Blas in London and Chris Giles in Davos
Published: January 27 2011 18:58 | Last updated: January 27 2011 18:58

Governments across the developing world are stockpiling food staples in an attempt to contain panic buying, inflation and social unrest.

But the hoarding is driving agricultural commodity prices even higher. The cost of wheat, the world’s most important staple, reached a fresh two-and-a-half-year high on Thursday, after countries from Algeria to Saudi Arabia announced extraordinary purchases.

High food prices have been a contributing factor to the recent wave of social unrest across North Africa and the Middle East. In Algeria earlier this month, young rioters chanted “Bring us sugar!” The cost of the sweetener in the wholesale market is at its highest in 30 years.

Earlier this week, Algeria bought 800,000 tonnes of wheat – much more than usual – and Saudi Arabia announced plans to double the size of its wheat stockpile.

Bangladesh and Indonesia joined the rush on Thursday, placing extraordinary on rice orders. Traders said that Jakarta, which usually buys rice in 200,000-tonne allotments, tendered for more than 800,000 tonnes. Bangladesh said it would double rice purchases this year.

More… ^[4]

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It grows and grows but nobody knows where or if it will stop.

U.S. Treasury Will Sell $72 Billion in Long-Term Securities This Quarter
By Rebecca Christie – Feb 2, 2011 12:24 PM MT

The U.S. Treasury Department today said it would keep its long-term borrowing at steady levels and warned that the federal debt limit could be reached as soon as April 5.

Mary Miller, the Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial markets, said the department so far is borrowing as usual while Congress debates when and how to raise the $14.29 trillion debt limit. Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has warned that the U.S. faces “catastrophic damage” if lawmakers do not act in time.

“We expect that Congress will do the right thing and raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner,” Miller said at a press conference.

The Treasury today said it plans to sell $72 billion in long-term debt next week, in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of bond dealers. The department’s quarterly auctions will consist of $32 billion in three-year notes on Feb. 8, $24 billion in 10-year notes Feb. 9 and $16 billion in 30-year bonds Feb. 10.

The Treasury now expects the debt ceiling to be reached between April 5 and May 31, compared to the range of March 31 to May 16 it predicted early last month. The department will update its forecast again in the first week of March.

More… ^[5]

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Ok, I could not help it. My tracked vehicle is unstoppable in the snow. I just got in from a ride through the woods cutting tracks in snow I couldn’t tell you how deep it was. The undercarriage plows snow and will not let the vehicle get hung up. Six gigantic lights look forward and backwards making this thing look like a snow vehicle from outer space. First gear rumbles a bit – it is required to make it uphill.

Uphill in this thing is like no uphill ever. It climbs in deep snow up to a 70% slope. The vehicle undulates as the snow does giving you the feel of a boat going through swells.

Work hard and occasional play with sattvic toys is required to keep things in perspective. What we are doing in gold is 100% right regardless of significant reactions common to a higher price.

Now back to business. Later tonight we will be back to the blizzard. Living on a farm is the only way to go for a lot of reasons.

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What does the Fed know that financial TV does not? The entire Western world financial community is broke. The fragile recovery is Happy Juice from the Dow.

Fed passes China in Treasury holdings
By Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: February 2 2011 00:01 | Last updated: February 2 2011 00:01

The Federal Reserve has surpassed China as the leading holder of US Treasury securities even though it has yet to reach the halfway mark in its latest round of quantitative easing, according to official figures.

Based on weekly data released on Thursday, the New York Fed’s holdings of Treasuries in its System Open Market Account, known as Soma, total $1,108bn, made up of bills, notes, bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or Tips.

According to the most recent US Treasury data on foreign holders of US government paper, China holds $896bn and Japan owns $877bn.

“By June [the Fed] will have accumulated some $1,600bn of Treasury securities, likely to be in the vicinity of China and Japan’s combined holdings,” said Richard Gilhooly, a strategist at TD Securities. “The New York Fed surpassed China in the past month as the largest holder of US Treasury securities,” he noted.

The Fed is buying Treasury debt under two programmes. The largest is QE2, which began in November and is scheduled to involve $600bn of purchases by June.

It is also buying $30bn of Treasuries a month as it reinvests principal payments from its large holdings of mortgage debt and debt issued by government housing agencies – a programme dubbed QE lite.

More… ^[6]