A Note From Alf Fields

Posted at 8:14 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Firstly, to finish off on the ultra short term, here is the chart I showed a couple of days ago:

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Note the small a-b-c correction from $1420. The A leg was from $1420 to $1363, a decline of $57. If the C wave is the same size, a decline of $57 from $1412.50 takes us to $1355.50.

Yesterday the PM fix was $1360.50 and the morning fix $1357.50.

Conclusion: gold has either already finished the correction or requires one minor drop below yesterday’s fixings to finish it.

Turning to the longer term picture, I sent you the following weekly price chart in mid 2009.

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This is what has happened since then:

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I have numbered the minor waves and concluded that wave 5 is extending. This opinion is based on the size of the corrections since the wave 4 low at $1058. The following analysis of the minor waves and their relative proportions should make this quite clear:

Wave 1           712.5 to   989.0        +276.5            +38.8%
Wave 2           989.0 to   870.5        – 118.5            -12.0%
Wave 3           870.5 to 1212.5        +342.0            +39.3%
Wave 4           1212.5 to 1058.0      -154.5             -12.7%
Wave 5           is extending – see analysis below.

Note: The similarity of the 12% declines above indicate that they are part of the same impulse wave. The much smaller declines of 7.9% and 5.9% are evidence that wave 5 is extending.

Extended wave 5:

Wave 5.i         1058.0 to 1256.0      +198               +18.7%
Wave 5.ii        1256.0 to 1157.0      -  99                -   7.9%
Wave 5.iii       1157.0 to 1421.0      +264               +22.8%
Wave 5.iv       1421.0 to 1337.5      -83.5               -   5.9%
Wave 5.v        1337.5 to 1642.0      +305               +22.8% (forecast – assumes the same % gain as 5.iii)
Total 5            1058.0 to 1642.0      +584               +55.2%

If we assume that 5.v is an average of the 5.i and 5.iii gains of 18.7% and 22.8%, say 20%, the target for 5.v would be $1604. One further possibility is that the gain in wave 5 equals the overall gain in waves 1 through 3, i.e. $1212.5 from $712.5 = $500. This provides a target of $1058 + $500 = $1558.

This concludes the end of intermediate wave I of Major Three. The decline to follow the peak of wave I, (the peak being somewhere between $1558 and $1642), should be of a magnitude of between 16% to 22%.

I think that we can conclude that your $1650 forecast will come close to achievement during the up-move which should start this week.

Best wishes,
Alf Fields