Extremely Unbalanced Long Bond Market
CIGA Eric
While massive net outflows in the Treasury bond market by connect players as open interest spikes doesn’t necessarily imply a immediate trend change, it does reflect an extremely unbalanced market. An extremely unbalanced with rising open interest (participation) tends to associated with hot markets. Hot markets are dangerous.
Those familiar with the probabilities of statistical Z scores from a normal distribution understand the rarity of +/- 3 Sigma reading. The enclosed link to Z-score applet with help those less familiar. The most recent COT data generated a -3.04 2-year trend Z-Score.
Lower Money Flow Table: 
The following chart illustrates the spike in participation into hot market.
Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bond and the COT Futures and Options Open Interest Stochastic Weighted Average: 
Jim,
Weimar politicians thought it wise to hide their military debt as well as having various off-sheet unaccountable accounting measures as they prepared for the mass printing. We are better off cutting our own path thru the forests of finance
CIGA JB Slear
Figures on government spending and debt
On Friday August 20, 2010, 4:39 pm EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Figures on government spending and debt (last six digits are eliminated). The government’s fiscal year runs Oct. 1 through Sept. 30.
Total public debt subject to limit Aug. 19 13,310,379
Statutory debt limit 14,294,000
Total public debt outstanding Aug. 19 13,363,228
Operating balance Aug. 19 230,177
Net interest fiscal year 2010 thru July 185,248
Net interest same period 2009 167,706
Deficit fiscal year 2010 thru July 1,169,071
Deficit same period 2009 1,266,963
Receipts fiscal year 2010 thru July 1,752,541
Receipts same period 2009 1,739,949
Outlays fiscal year 2010 thru July 2,921,612
Outlays same period 2009 3,006,912
Gold assets in August 11,041
Dear Jim,
This is a milestone.
CIGA Ursel
Shrinking ‘Quant’ Funds Struggle to Revive Boom
August 19 – Financial Times (Julie Creswell):
"They were revered as the brightest minds in finance, the ‘quants’ who could outwit Wall Street with their Ph.D.’s and superfast computers. But after blundering through the financial panic, losing big in 2008 and lagging badly in 2009, these so-called quantitative investment managers no longer look like geniuses… The combined assets of quantitative funds specializing in United States stocks have plunged to $467 billion, from $1.2 trillion in 2007, a 61% decline, according to eVestment Alliance… One in four quant hedge funds has closed since 2007, according to Lipper Tass. ‘If you go back to early 2008, when Bear Stearns blew up, that’s when a lot of quant managers got blown out of the water,’ said Neil Rue, a managing director with Pension Consulting Alliance… ‘For many, that was the beginning of the end,’ he added."
