Hi Jim,

The Gold Currency Index broke well above downtrend resistance today, confirming similar action in POG. Technical indicators continue to strengthen and the next objective is that congestion resistance near 28 ($1,152 for POG); a break above that level would forecast a return to the all-time high.

Best,

CIGA Erik
Prometheus Market Insight
http://www.prometheusmi.com ^[1]

Click charts to enlarge

^[2]

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Jim,

Illustrated in the chart below we have the estimated cumulative mortgage reset amount from Credit Suisse.

About 70% to go… mostly in 2010 and 2011.

Best regards,
CIGA Christopher

CIGA Christopher,

This is what is about to hit the fan.

Jim

Click chart to enlarge

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Notes From Underground: So bye bye Mr. Evan Bayh
Yra | February 15, 2010 at 9:27 pm

As our readers know, we can’t resist a good pun and oh well, there is nothing you can say that can’t be sung. The flight of all the democratic and republican stalwarts makes us uncomfortable to say the least. As some profess, it is the rats leaving a sinking ship. We are not in that camp yet and try to analyze what else may be taking place. We are beginning to think that the centrists are going to try to form a third party so as to challenge the hold of lobbyists and big money on the traditional parties. There is no doubt that the Massachusetts election has made a great impact, but it can’t be such a great impact that incumbents are now fearful. The power of the incumbency is still great in its power to attract the PAC money that is so badly needed to fight the media-centered campaigns. Evan Bayh, the consummate Democratic centrist abandoning the race really makes us think that there is more here than meets the eye but that is why we live in the 2+2=5 world. Nothing is ever as it seems!

More… ^[5]

Kiss That V-Shaped Recovery Good-Bye – Not so fast
CIGA Eric

Kiss That V-Shaped Recovery Good-Bye: The U.S. "Worse Than Greece," Says Economist.

Pento is negative on America’s near term economic prospects for three main reasons: too little bank lending, too few jobs and too much public and private debt.

These points have been discussed in detail here and jsmineset.com.

- Too little lending & few jobs ^[6]
- Too much public and private debt ^[7]

The idea of tee-pee recovery, in which we have already seen the peak in the fourth quarter, assumes that the stock market is being driven by real economic demand. Look no further than the Weimar Republic ^[8] as an example of how devaluation supports vertical, V-shaped rises. Is the V-shaped recovery, or devaluation of the U.S. dollar over? If the above assertion that U.S. is worse than Greece, there’s no way infinite quantitative easing (QE) ends here and now. Falling dollar supports higher nominal, but not real ^[9], stock prices.

Source: finance.yahoo.com ^[10]

More… ^[11]

U.S. Treasury Long Bonds
CIGA Eric

The war between illusion and economic reality ^[12] continues to rage in the U.S. treasury long bond market. The battle is fierce and the long-term trendline ^[13] is being challenged. As market participants wait for confirmation – recognizable top in the US Treasury market, the U.S. corporate bond market foreshadows the outcome.

Long-Term U.S. Corporate Bonds Total Return Index (LTCBTRI):
^[14]

Five Golden Pillars:
^[15]

Source: jsmineset.com ^[16]

More… ^[17]

Housing Shortage Coming In 2011
CIGA Eric

The focus of the U.S. real estate market lately has been the number of foreclosures and people trying to purchase cheap housing. But Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, says that if Americans don’t start focusing on building new houses, the market will have a much bigger problem on its hands.

"We need one and a half million houses per year just to keep up with population growth," Wesbury said in an interview with Steve Forbes.

Call me a stickler for focusing on the forest through the trees, but supply (months supply) and demand (restricted access to credit) neither reflect a impending shortage or sustainable bottom in housing.

Months Supply And Change YOY:
^[18]

U.S. Median Home Price (MHP) to Gold:
^[19]

Source: forbes.com ^[20]

More… ^[21]