Dear CIGAs,
The 2006 Formula is at work, and will continue to do so because the Western world central bank intervention is not focused on the real problem. The problem was the fallout and back blast from OTC derivatives.
No fix has occurred whatsoever.
A downward spiral stops only when the intervention is focused on the cause of the spiral, not making people whole who caused it all in the first place.
The yearend dollar rally has no fundamental pulling for it anywhere.
Gold is headed to and through $1224.10 to $1274-$1278 and then on to $1650 and above.
U.S. Has Record December Budget Gap of $91.9 Billion
By Vincent Del Giudice
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. registered its largest Decemberbudget deficit on record as higher unemployment reduced revenue and the government spent money to help the economy recover.
The excess of spending over revenue rose to $91.9 billion last month, compared with a deficit of $51.8 billion in December 2008, the Treasury Department announced today in Washington in its monthly budget statement. The U.S. has posted a record 15 straight monthly deficits.
The December figure caps a calendar year in which the deficit widened to an all-time high, featuring unprecedented government spending to help engineer an economic recovery. The deepest recession in seven decades also resulted in the worst year for tax collections since 2004, according to calculations by Bloomberg News, as companies suffered and more Americans were shuffled to the unemployment line.
“The budget balance has deteriorated sharply over the past years because of both the weak economy and the various tax cuts meant to stimulate the economy,” Steven Wood, president at Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said in a note to clients. Wood projected a $92 billion December deficit.
The figures highlight the challenges facing the Obama administration as it searches for ways to keep the deficit from ballooning further, while at the same time trying to preserve the recovery and help spur job growth. The government’s $787 billion economic rescue plan contributed to the record $1.4 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2009 that ended in September.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
China as a consumer, not an exporter.
Note the article seems to forget the USA’s 2009 "Cash for Clunkers."
GM exec: China likely to keep auto sales lead
By TOM KRISHER
The Associated Press
Wednesday, January 13, 2010; 6:04 PM
DETROIT — China has probably passed the U.S. for good as the world’s largest auto sales market, General Motor Co.’s top executive in China said Wednesday.
Kevin Wale, president of the Detroit automaker’s China Group, said China experienced huge auto sales growth last year and he expects growth to continue, creating a gap that will be too large for the U.S. to close.
Boosted by government stimulus programs, China’s total vehicle sales soared 45 percent last year to an estimated 13.6 million, the China Passenger Car Association said. By contrast, U.S. sales of cars and light trucks plunged 21 percent in 2009 to 10.4 million as a shaky economy kept buyers away from showrooms.
The increase is a strong indication of China’s status as an economic powerhouse and the rise in personal income among its 1.3 billion residents.
Wale, speaking to reporters at the Automotive News World Congress in downtown Detroit, said he expects Chinese auto sales to grow to 14.5 million to 15.5 million this year, far above analysts’ predictions of 11.5 million to 12 million sales in the U.S.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The original authority for bailout funds allowed loans to banks, financial institutions, partnerships and individuals.
Think about it.
David Vitter blocks vote on Fed chairman Bernanke
By Bruce Alpert, Times-Picayune
January 13, 2010, 7:35PM
In an unusual alliance, conservative Sen. David Vitter is teaming with self-described socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders to block a vote on Ben Bernanke’s nomination for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Vitter, R-La., and Sanders, who is officially listed as an independent from Vermont, are joined by Sens. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., and Jim DeMint, R-S.C., in the move against Bernanke. All have said they won’t lift their holds until Senate leaders agree to establish congressional audits of the powerful monetary agency.
In opposing the Bernanke nomination, Vitter faulted Bernanke’s policies in trying to rescue troubled financial companies.
"Over the past year or so, the Fed has doled out several trillion dollars to any number of troubled institutions through a series of programs that were supposed to turn our economy around," Vitter said. "These programs have worsened our economic crisis by making ‘too big to fail’ a permanent government policy and created further debt that will now be the burden of our children and grandchildren."
At the very least, Vitter said, the Senate shouldn’t vote on Bernanke, who was first appointed by President George W. Bush, until a process is established for audits of the agency.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Note the mortgage resets in 2010-2011.
REAL gold and silver:
A science oriented CIGA has developed a technological application that is unique to the precious metals market for the purpose of determining if your bullion has been counterfeited by including tungsten alloy. This technology is completely safe and non-destructive to the precious metal, and will be effective on everything from fractional ounce coins all the way up to the full size 100 and 1,000 ounce COMEX bars of gold and silver.
This technological application has been developed in response to the growing threat to the bullion community from tungsten/lead alloy adulteration. Tungsten has a density nearly identical to gold, and tungsten mixed with lead will have a density nearly identical to pure silver. The threat arises from unscrupulous individuals and possibly institutions that have been removing precious metal from the center of bullion bars and replacing it with tungsten or tungsten-lead alloy. Modern computer-aided machine tools are then used to seamlessly re-smooth the surface of the bullion product to hide any trace of the theft that has just happened.
Traditionally, the use of a density calculation (mass divided by volume) has been the simple solution to verify the assay purity of bullion. Unfortunately, the insidious use of tungsten alloys that match the densities of gold and silver make this test completely useless for this type of problem.
Other types of commonly available bullion verification testing include:
X-Ray Fluorescence: This is a very accurate surface test, but unfortunately can only analyze the surface and immediate sub-surface of the bullion product. In a situation where tungsten alloy has been hidden in the core of a bullion product, it is unlikely that this technique would successfully identify it.
Acid testing: Can only test the surface of the gold product that is exposed to the acid.
Electronic Testing: Can confirm purity through electrical conductivity resistance of the surface layer of the bullion but cannot "see" the tungsten that is embedded deep in the core of the bar or coin.
Fire assay, drilling and similar techniques are highly destructive and in the case of collector coins can completely ruin their value.
This CIGA’s new detection technologies are unique to the bullion market. They can detect tungsten/lead and other impurities and cavities that are hidden at any depth inside the bullion product, no matter how large or how small, and are 100% completely non-destructive and safe.
In addition, he is are preparing to produce tamper-resistant holographic-sealed assay certificates with the analysis results for the bullion item that bear a digital image of the bullion product and show the serial number and hallmark if present. These tamper-resistant assay certificates could then trade with the bullion product and give both buyers and sellers a sense of real security.
He is seeking input from prospective customers to determine if there is interest in this technology and if you would want to use it for your bullion holdings. The cost would be very reasonable, analysis work would be timely and the safe return delivery of your gold and silver bullion would be guaranteed.
Please email him at info@bullionanalysis.com to let him know if you are interested in this service.
As always, I have no business interest in this project, but bring it to your attention because of the continuing talk in the community about falsification of bullion and coins.
Respectfully yours,
Jim
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here are our representatives that we have entrusted sound economic policies to, upon which the strength of the dollar depends.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Once the 28 year up-trend in the USA long bonds breaks down, rallies can be shorted with impunity.
The final Pillar of Gold’s major bull market and price appreciation to $1650 and above will be set into place.
Treasurys decline, weighed by Beige Book
Decent demand at auction of 10-year notes not helping
By Deborah Levine, MarketWatch
Jan. 13, 2010, 3:34 p.m. EST
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices declined on Wednesday, extending losses in the afternoon and reversing much of Tuesday’s gains after the Federal Reserve’s latest snapshot report on the economy said the Christmas retail season was better than last year but still far below 2007.
The sell-off began early in the session, extending after the government’s auction of $21 billion in 10-year notes despite attracting good demand from investors. Traders noted concerns about demand for the last of four big auctions for the week when the Treasury sells 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Yields on 10-year notes (UST10Y 3.79, +0.08, +2.10%), which move inversely to prices, rose 8 basis points to 3.79%. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The yield dropped 10 basis points on Tuesday, the biggest decline since mid-December.
Yields on 2-year notes (UST2YR 0.95, +0.05, +5.78%)increased 5 basis points to 0.96%, after falling in the past three sessions.
More of the Fed’s districts reported some increase in activity or improvement in conditions, according to the so-called Beige Book, which is used by policy makers at their rate-setting meeting at the end of the month.
The report also notes very low inflation pressures, as analysts expected, giving officials no reason to change its promise to keep benchmark interest rates low for an extended period.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Judging from recent criticisms of Greece, close attention to economic statistics and the revisions thereof might be another criterion in maintaining a AAA rating.
Dollar strength, like all currency unit strength, has a direct relationship to the quality of that country’s debt. Therefore the dollar rally might be said to also depend on the US cutting the Federal deficit by curtailing Federal spending immediately; an oxymoronic concept in itself.
US must cut spending to save AAA rating, warns Fitch
Fitch Ratings has issued the starkest warning to date that the US will lose its AAA credit rating unless acts to bring the budget deficit under control, citing a spiral in debt service costs and dependence on foreign lenders.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 5:30AM GMT 12 Jan 2010
Brian Coulton, the agency’s head of sovereign ratings, said the US is shielded for now by its pivotal role in global finance and the dollar’s status as the key reserve currency, but the picture is deteriorating fast enough to ring alarm bells.
"Difficult decisions will have to be made regarding spending and tax to underpin market confidence in the long-run sustainability of public finances. In the absence of measures to reduce the budget deficit over the next three to five years, government indebtedness will approach levels by the latter half of the decade that will bring pressure to bear on the US’s ‘AAA’ status", he said.
Fitch expects the combined state and federal debt to reach 94pc of GDP next year, up from 57pc at the end of 2007. Federal interest costs will reach 13pc of revenues, meaning that an eighth of all taxes will go to service debt. Most fiscal experts view this level as dangerously close to the point of no return for debt dynamics.
The rating alert is a reminder that fiscal stimulus and bank rescues across the world have merely shifted private debt on to public shoulders. The bail-outs looked deceptively ‘costless’ at the time, but the damage to sovereign states may take years to repair. The US Treasury says interest payments as a share of GDP will rise to 3.6pc by 2016, the highest since data began in 1940 – when it was 0.8pc.
Mr Coulton said the US is vulnerable to "potential interest rate shocks" due to its reliance on short-term debt and foreign investors. The average maturity of US government debt has fallen to four years, compared to seven for Europe’s AAA club, and 10 for Britain. "The share of three-month bills has risen very sharply as a result of recapitalising banks," he said.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The dollar rally is lacking even a hint of fundamental reality.
US faced grim future without action to curb debt, says report
Posted: 13 January 2010 2317 hrs
WASHINGTON: The US economy is heading down a path of lower living standards and diminished confidence without action to stem the massive budget deficit, a group of prominent researchers said on Wednesday.
A National Research Council panel said the country faces difficult choices on tax increases and spending cuts to achieve a more sustainable fiscal balance.
"The federal government is currently spending far more than it collects in revenues, and if current policies are continued, will do so for the foreseeable future," the report said.
"No reasonably foreseeable rate of economic growth would overcome this structural deficit. Thus, any efforts to rein in future deficits must entail either large increases in taxes to support these programs or major restraints on their growth – or some combination of the two."
The US government closed its 2009 fiscal year with a record 1.417-trillion-dollar budget deficit and the White House forecasts an even bigger gap of 1.502 trillion dollars in fiscal 2010, said the committee from the National Research Council and the National Academy of Public Administration.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
How come I knew this in the 90s and apparently no one else did?
You have to know anyone with a functioning brain in finance for more than 6 months knew this.
The queen’s financial advisors told her when they informed her she had been tapped out that no one foresaw the OTC derivative crisis as possible or happening.
Bank CEOs: We made mistakes
By Jennifer Liberto, senior writerJanuary 13, 2010: 12:41 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Four top bank chief executives told a panel probing the financial crisis Wednesday that they made mistakes but didn’t realize how bad they were at the time.
In a heated exchange in Washington with the head of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs’ CEO, agreed the banks had assumed too much exposure to risk at the height of the crisis, and he wished he could go back and change things.
"Anyone who says I wouldn’t change a thing, I think, is crazy," Blankfein said. "Knowing now what happened, whatever we did, whatever what the standards of the time were — It didn’t work out well."
"Of course, I’d go back and wish we had done whatever it took not to find ourselves in the position we found ourselves in," he added.
The remarks came during a hearing of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, a 10-member panel appointed last summer by Congress. Testifying were chiefs of some of the best-known and largest banks: Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500).
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
How is your sense of humor?
Derivatives Exemption Helps Big Wall Street Banks, Gensler Says
By Dawn Kopecki
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — “Big Wall Street banks” benefit from a provision in derivatives legislation that has been promoted as aid for companies hedging their own risks, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said.
“It is the Wall Street banks that benefit from the so- called end-user exemption from transparency, not the businesses that use derivatives,” Gensler said yesterday in a speech to the Atlantic Council in Washington criticizing the provision.
The House of Representatives passed legislation on Dec. 11 designed to shed more light on the $605 trillion over-the- counter market for derivatives contracts such as swaps, options and futures. The measure would exempt from many of the rules so- called corporate end-users, businesses such as oil companies and airlines that use derivatives to hedge operational risks.
As the financial crisis “appeared to stabilize, Wall Street has been able to be more successful” in moderating the legislation, Gensler said. “The Senate is another venue.”
While the House bill, which the Senate has yet to consider, applies to standard contracts between broker dealers such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., it wouldn’t regulate transactions between those banks and end-users.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
You have to love traders.
Einstein said there are but two things infinite. One is the universe and the other is man’s stupidity. He did however say he was not so convinced about the universe.
Gold goes down and the dollar is bought on news that China has the guts to do the right thing concerning increasing bank reserve requirements. The USA has all but eliminated them.
Note the cause and effect discussion here regarding the renminbi and the direction of the US dollar. China will do the right thing with their currency when they determine it to be the right time and in all probability they will be correct as to timing and price.
Note the headline was different on the Bloomberg article.
China’s Accelerated Exit From Stimulus Signals Higher Yuan and Lower Dollar
(Bloomberg) — An unexpected shift by China’s central bank to restrain lending may foreshadow higher interest rates and a relaxation in the nation’s currency peg against the dollar.
The People’s Bank of China yesterday raised the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves by 50 basis points starting Jan. 18. Economists hadn’t anticipated the move until at least April, the median of 11 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed last week.
Policy makers may follow up by raising their benchmark rate in coming months, rather than waiting until the second half of the year as most economists in the survey had projected. By moving ahead of the Federal Reserve, which plans to keep rates near zero for an “extended” period, pressure will rise to allow the yuan to appreciate for the first time since mid-2008.
“Higher benchmark lending rates and a stronger yuan will also need to be part of the package,” Brian Jackson, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said after yesterday’s decision. “Early action now” is “more likely to prevent the need for very sharp tightening further down the road,” he said.
Along with further reserve-ratio increases and lifting the benchmark rate, officials may let the yuan climb by 3 percent to 5 percent this year, Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at Citic Securities Co. said in an e-mailed note. Jackson at RBC forecasts the currency will strengthen about 5 percent, to 6.5 per dollar.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
And will do everything possible to talk their case.
MOPE is universal and omnipresent.
China eager to buy IMF gold for $1,000 per ounce
Published on January 13, 2010 at 17:30
By David Lew
BEIJING: Two months after India’s Reserve Bank made big global news with the purchase of 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), bullion traders are now waiting for the ‘golden’ news of 2010. The news in question: Will China buy the remaining 203 tonnes of gold from IMF soon?
Bullion trader and gold investors in China want the dragon country to take the plunge and buy the rest of the IMF gold, following India’s footsteps. India bought 200 tonnes of IMF gold for $1,045 an ounce. Soon after the India purchase, gold price zoomed to touch a high of $1,227 per ounce in November last year. Since then, the yellow metal price has come down. Gold is these days hovering around the $1,100-1,150 price range.
Last year, IMF approved the long-talked-about sale of 1/8th of its holdings, in "a volume strictly limited to 403.3 metric tons, with these sales to be conducted under modalities that safeguard against disruption of the gold market." The main IMF parameter to sell its gold reserve was that the sale has to be done at current market prices. So, now, the moot question is whether China will take the next step and buy 203 tonnes of gold from IMF at the current market price–$1,100-1,150 range?
Buying gold at the current market price would mean that China will be paying almost the same money per ounce of gold that India paid to IMF. Bullion experts recommend that China should go in for the IMF gold buy in this new year, as otherwise its ambitious task to mop up 10,000 tonnes of gold reserves in the next 10 years may be difficult to achieve.
The Chinese Central Bank—the People’s Bank of China—now holds record amounts of US dollars. But the gold holding of the Chinese central bank is at a paltry 1.8%. “China has set a big plan to mop up its gold reserves to beat the United States in the next 10 years. Currently, the gold reserves with the People’s Bank of China are the lowest for any central bank holdings, taking into account the booming Chinese economy,” says Jong-Yoon Chai, a bullion analyst based in Beijing.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Sir Richard speaks on gold and the lack of a PRACTICAL method to either sustain a dollar rally or drain the trillions injected into the international economy.
Richard Russell comments on gold – again
January 12, 2010 – I’ve been a fan of Noriel Roubini’s, (my daughter’s been to his parties) one of the very few economists who foresaw and predicted the housing collapse. That great call made Roubini famous. But I was surprised and dismayed to note Roubini’s recent warning about what he termed the "gold bubble." Roubini is the son of an Iranian-Jewish family, and if that didn’t provide him with respec t for gold I don’t know what would. Actually I was shocked that the brilliant Roubini didn’t understand gold, all of which leads to today’s site.
At any rate, I feel the urge to talk about the fundamentals of gold. Eighty-five percent of all the gold ever mined in world history is here on the surface of the earth today — it’s in your tooth crown, it’s in your sweetie’s ring, it’s on the ceiling of your church, it’s in those heavy bars buried deep in the vaults of the New York Fed, it’s in the case of your Rolex watch. In general, gold is not "used up," it’s simply accumulated.
Gold is mentioned repeatedly in the Bible. Gold appears to be etched into the DNA of man. Gold has been lusted after and treasured since the dawn of civilization. The search for gold opened up America’s West. The quest for gold sent the merciless Spanish explorers into the Americas. Gold has been an item of wealth through the dark ages, through two world wars, through the Holocaust, through the Crusades, through Biblical times. As far as I can discover, there has never been a time when man has not lusted for the beautiful yellow metal that never tarnishes.
Gold is the standard around which all other prices revolve. The price of gold does not change. Gold is the eternal, immutable standard. Gold is priced by the minute worldwide in dollars. If the dollar price of gold rises (as now), the dollar is, in effect, being devalued. All other currencies are compared with the dollar. Thus, if the price of gold rises, that rise effects all other currencies, and thus all currencies move around the dollar, and the dollar in turn fluctuates around gold.
The Founding fathers had intimate experience with fiat paper currency, and the Constitution of the United States states that only gold and silver are to be considered money. Further, the Constitution warns specifically against paper money. Prior to 1931 you could take your dollars to a national bank and exchange those dollars for gold. Since the dollar was backed by gold, the discipline of gold limited the number of dollars that could be issued by the United States. Not enough gold, stop printing dollars.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The yearend dollar rally is predicated on a US economic recovery, its sustainability and the value of US debt.
Delinquency, Foreclosure Hit One in 7.5
01-13-2010
One in every 7.5 homeowners in the U.S. is either delinquent on their loans or in foreclosure, according to Lender Processing Service. In its December 2009 Mortgage Monitor report, Florida-based LPS said total delinquencies, excluding foreclosure, rose to a record 9.97%, an increase of more than 21% from a year earlier. It also found that more than 5% of loans have moved to a more delinquent status, while 1.52% have improved. It did note, however, that the number of foreclosure starts has continued to decline, thanks to loss mitigation efforts such as the federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The US dollar recovery is also predicated on the success of the Fed and Treasury in solving all Western financial problems by spending, borrowing, extending and pretending.
Public Pensions Face $2 Trillion Deficit
January 05, 2010
Trader Mark
Much like we were early citing the coming fiscal disaster that are state budgets [Dec 16, 2007: California in a State of Fiscal Emergency - Coming to a Theater Near You] so we will be early to the disaster that is the US public pension system. As we clearly now see, there is no political will to make hard decisions that alienate any of the potential voting public. So, much like the state (and city) budget crisis, I expect the nation to continue to kick the can, doling out pensions we cannot afford to the public worker – until we run into a wall at 180 mph.
And then your grandchildren will be asked to foot the bill "in the public interest" or "to keep the system stable" or "this is what we promised". And when the bill for Medicare comes due sometime later in the decade – perhaps when it starts eating up 20%+ of all US GDP – we’ll hear the same thing. At some point there will be no extra sources to borrow from, so Federal Reserve Chief Geithner? Summers? will be printing new US pesos at a rate that makes Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing look like child’s play. It’s all the same pattern – played over and over, just in different future liability accounts.
But for today, let us focus on the public pension issue – one of the many reasons it’s in the "national interest" to make sure the stock market goes in the "right direction". We’ve already used up almost every accounting trick known to man to obfuscate the problem. Just this weekend in the Wall Street Journal, we have Illinois:
Illinois routinely covers those gaps with short-term measures, putting off bills and paying less than is recommended into the state’s pension fund. The pension plan has unfunded liabilities of nearly $80 billion — among the worst in the nation, with no solution in place for catching up.
I know you scoff at $80 billion now because you’ve become numb to large numbers after the epic bailouts of the past few years, but just over a decade ago, the Federal Reserve arranged a bailout of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management because it posed a threat to the global financial system…. for under $5 billion. That’s how extraordinary these $200, $300B bailouts are – and people have become immune to the numbers. So Illinois alone (1 state) is talking $80B… and growing.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The most connected entity fathers this China venture.
That has to tell you something.
The Carlyle Group
The Carlyle Group is one of the world’s largest private equity firms, with more than $87.6 billion under management. With 65 funds across four investment disciplines (buyouts, growth capital, real estate and leveraged finance), Carlyle combines global vision with local insight, relying on a top-flight team of 450+ investment professionals operating out of offices in 19 countries to uncover superior opportunities in North America, Europe, Asia, Australia, the Middle East/North Africa and Latin America.
Carlyle Group To Set Up Renminbi Denominated Fund To Expand Investment Reach In China
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Carlyle Group LLC has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Financial Work to form an Renminbi (RMB) denominated fund in Beijing to invest alongside Carlyle Asia partners and pursue independent investments in larger
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The yearend dollar rally is predicated on improvement in the US economy and assumed sustainability of that recovery.
Trade deficit grows (.pdf).
November’s trade deficit rose 9.7% to $36.4B, larger than the $34.7B expected. Adjusting for inflation, the trade deficit grew 6.2%, prompting some economists to cut their estimates for Q4 economic growth. Exports were up 0.9% to $138.2B, but imports rose 2.6% to $174.6B.
Retail sales.
ICSC retail store sales were down 3% from the previous week vs. +1.5% last week, and were up 1.7% from the previous year vs. +2.5% last week. The decline stemmed from limited clearance merchandise; given consumer thrift, "if it is not on sale and the consumer does not need it, they will not make the purchase."
Consumer confidence drops.
The ABC Consumer Comfort Index dropped 6 points to -47, one of the steepest one-week drops in 25 years. The index had been at a 16-month high. Those who rated their personal finances positively slipped to 46%; only 24% think it’s a good time to buy things and just 9% rate the national economy positively.
