‘Gold might climb to $1650 by 2011′
Commodity investor James Sinclair said yesterday that gold might climb to $1650 (R12 300) an ounce by early 2011 on demand for an investment to compete with the dollar and other currencies. "The carry trade has dropped the dollar as a currency of choice," said Sinclair, CEO of Canada-based Tanzanian Royalty. "Gold is competition to currencies."
Harmony CEO sees gold staying above $1 000
Harmony Gold CEO Graham Briggs said yesterday that the dollar price of gold could stay above $1 000 this year after it hit a new record, but stronger rand was eroding gains for South African producers. Gold hit a record high on the spot and futures markets yesterday, with dollar weakness continuing to support sentiment by attracting new investment in the metal. "Certainly it will go higher. It wouldn’t surprise me if it stayed above $1 000 an ounce," Briggs said. "My preference is that it should not rocket fast, but that it should creep up steadily. It’s a little bitter-sweet for us South African gold producers, because what affects us most is the rand gold price. This is what would make a difference."
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is the link for banks closing this weekend.
Bank Closing Information – November 20, 2009
These links contain useful information for the customers and vendors of these closed banks.
Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida, Fort Myers, FL
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Turkey already moving towards Iran now got a swift kick in that direction.
It is interesting how Pakistan and Turkey are progressing towards the center stage of geopolitical concern.
I wondering what step Israel is going to take in an ill considered manner.
New EU president raises fears in aspirant Turkey
Fri Nov 20, 2009 1:31pm EST
By Ibon Villelabeitia
ANKARA (Reuters) – Herman Van Rompuy’s appointment as the first European Union president provoked fears in Turkey that he might hinder Ankara’s hopes of joining the bloc, with some media declaring outright that he is anti-Turkish.
Turkish newspapers were quick to dig out past comments attributed to Van Rompuy that the EU’s Christian values would lose vigor if Muslim Turkey were let in.
Turkish politicians and academics reacted more cautiously to the Belgian Prime Minister’s elevation to the new EU job on Thursday, but few drew much comfort from it.
One front-page newspaper headline on Friday declared baldly: "The EU first president is anti-Turkish."
Turkish officials, who would have preferred someone more positive to Turkey such as former British prime minister Tony Blair, reacted coolly to Van Rompuy’s appointment.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This article makes fun of the solid fundamentals upon which gold is based and takes comfort in gold from a peripheral perspective. Be that as it may, all are welcome to their views.
What I find remarkable about this article is that it came from the New York Stock Exchange to its listed companies and members.
I might agree that I can be a boring dinner partner if you are a socialist or derivative dealer.
Click here to read the article in PDF format…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
One of today’s examples of verbal currency market intervention:
"European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB will gradually withdraw emergency cash."
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The man puts his money where is confidence lies.
Paulson: Gold’s Bull Run Is Just Beginning
November 19, 2009
By Simon Avery
John Paulson, lionized by many investors for his winning bet on the fall of the housing and financial markets, is now getting aboard the gold wagon.
The hedge fund manager told his investors that even at $1,150 an ounce, the bull run on gold is just beginning, according to the Wall Street Journal.
His firm, Paulson & Co., plans to launch a fund January 1st dedicated to gold mining shares and other bullion related investments, the newspaper reported.
Mr. Paulson, who is estimated to be worth about $6 billion. His bet against real estate and banks between 2007 and 2009 reportedly netted his hedge fund about $20 billion.
On Thursday, the World Gold Council reported that demand for the precious metal increased 10% in the third quarter from the previous three month period, driven by investors looking for a currency hedge and more jewelery purchases.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Shocking and hard to believe, but real.
Do you want gold as insurance or the dollar long-term?
$4.8 trillion – Interest on U.S. debt
Unless lawmakers make big changes, the interest Americans will have to pay to keep the country running over the next decade will reach unheard of levels.
By Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: November 19, 2009: 1:05 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Here’s a new way to think about the U.S. government’s epic borrowing: More than half of the $9 trillion in debt that Uncle Sam is expected to build up over the next decade will be interest.
More than half. In fact, $4.8 trillion.
If that’s hard to grasp, here’s another way to look at why that’s a problem.
In 2015 alone, the estimated interest due – $533 billion – is equal to a third of the federal income taxes expected to be paid that year, said Charles Konigsberg, chief budget counsel of the Concord Coalition, a deficit watchdog group.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This has to do with internal currency related demand and is not a central bank purchase.
Vietnam to import 6 tonnes gold this month -State TV
Thu Nov 19, 2009 12:52am EST
HANOI, Nov 19 (Reuters) – Vietnam will import 6 tonnes of gold this month, state broadcaster VTV said on Thursday, after the central bank last week lifted a ban on imports to stabilise an overheating market.
So far, 1.5 tonnes had been imported, 500 kg each by Sacombank STB.HM, ACB ACB.NM and Eximbank EIB.HM.
Saigon Jewellery Corp (SJC) will import 1 tonne, and 500 kg being imported by Agribank Jewellery Company will arrive in a few days, the VTV 1 Financial bulletin said. (Reporting by Nguyen Nhat Lam and John Ruwitch
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Things are happening faster than anyone anticipated.
The fabric of social order is under attack. The sheeple sleep on.
Oct. SSTF Report – We Are Now Living Off Of The Interest
Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 11/18/2009 09:02 -0500
The Social Security Trust Fund wracked up another monthly deficit for October. The shortfall was $4.2 billion. This is the 5th consecutive month of red ink for the Fund. The total for the period comes to $15bil. Blame the economy and the boomers for this problem. Some basic measures of the Fund’s performance are rapidly deteriorating.
A critical measure is the ratio of Payroll Tax receipts to Benefits paid. The following chart looks at that ratio over time. That ratio will fall below 1.0 for the full year 2009. As of today we are living off of the interest.
In November the SSTF will pay out $56.9 billion. They will be lucky to take in $47 billion in tax income. The deficit will be near to $10 billion. Interest income, and other income add another $140b annually to the Fund’s top line. But with monthly deficits of $10b on an operating basis, the Fund is running very close to break even for 2010. That possibility is not on anyone’s radar screen.
My estimate for benefits in 2010 is $756 b. If we assume total GDP growth of 2% the resulting ratio is 5.75%. That is up from 4% just a few years ago. It is rising fast. The following is from a CBO report on the Fund from August 2009. These guys think it going to 6% in 2030? This train will arrive 18 years early.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This is the new normal. How is this a foundation upon which an economic recovery can be firmly based?
Foreclosures will keep rising through 2010, report says
Mortgage Bankers Assn. says delinquencies and home repossessions have hit a new high. Blaming job losses for most of the pain, it sees a continued surge in foreclosures through all of next year.
By E. Scott Reckard
November 20, 2009
Home foreclosures are likely to keep climbing through all of next year despite stabilizing housing prices in some areas, a major lender group said Thursday as it reported that the level of delinquencies and repossessed homes had jumped to a record.
One in seven U.S. home loans was past due or in foreclosure as of Sept. 30, putting that quarterly delinquency measure at its highest level since 1972, when the Mortgage Bankers Assn. began reporting it. At the beginning of this year, 1 in 10 loans was past due or in foreclosure.
The continued surge in delinquencies suggests that a recovery in the housing market could be stalled by the worsening job picture as well as by further fallout from the easy-money lending that prevailed during the boom years.
Signals about housing have been decidedly mixed. On the bright side, median home prices appear to have stabilized — for the time being, anyway — in hard-hit areas of California such as the Inland Empire, and have begun to inch up again in San Diego and Orange counties and in San Francisco.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
It is hard to navigate between the rogue waves of MOPE, but here is a stark reality. Mortgage backed securities are OTC derivatives.
Fed has biggest balance sheet since December.
The Fed’s balance sheet swelled to its largest point since December as its holdings in agency and mortgage-backed securities increased, data released Thursday showed. Balance sheet liabilities had expanded to $2.19T as of Nov. 19, the highest point recorded since liabilities hit $2.25T on Dec. 31, 2008. The Fed’s holdings of mortgage-backed securities increased to $847B, from $776B a week earlier, while its agency debt ownership rose to $153B from $150B. The Fed has said it will continue its support for markets with ongoing purchases of securities, buying $1.25T worth of mortgage-backed securities and $175B in bonds issued by Fannie Mae ( FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and the Federal Home Loan Bank System.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Pakistan today.
Why Pakistan Won’t Fight the Afghan Taliban
By OMAR WARAICH / ISLAMABAD Friday, Nov. 20, 2009
President Barack Obama is about to announce his new strategy for Afghanistan, but the success of whatever option he chooses will depend heavily on Pakistan acting to stop its territory being used to attack Western forces next door. And that’s bad news, because the demands of its own domestic counterinsurgency campaign, doubts about the duration of U.S. commitment in Afghanistan and looming political instability in Islamabad have left Pakistan in no hurry to help out.
Obama’s National Security Adviser General James Jones last week visited Islamabad carrying a message from his boss to Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari. The New York Times reported Monday that in the letter, Obama urged Zardari to rally his nation behind a joint campaign against militants who fight the Pakistani government and those who fight U.S. and allied troops in Afghanistan. Obama was also reported to have demanded more decisive action against al-Qaeda leaders hiding in Pakistan’s tribal areas. In return, he reportedly offered a range of fresh incentives, "including enhanced intelligence sharing and military cooperation."
