Jim,
That’s enough analysis for me today, but I had to comment on your posting…
"All of this occurred in 1932 exactly the same way it is happening now." The words of a man that understands.
Time and price is more consistent with 1942, but debt liquidation and savings rate changes from 2000 to 2009 do not reflect the changes that took place between 1929 to 1942. If such is the case, the ABCD pattern of 2000- will be much bigger than 1929-1954. If such is the case, gold as a tool to monetary reform has barely moved to the upside.
CIGA Eric
Jim,
Love your site.
I hope you can answer this question:
How will the Treasury and Fed remove the liquidity from the economy and stave off inflation if much of the currency is in the hands of John Q. Public via the stimulus packages. I.E. – construction projects, Neighbourhood Stabilization Programs, Mortgage Assistance to families at risk of foreclosure, etc.? What are they going to do, ask for it back?
I am perplexed.
Regards.
CIGA Greg
Dear Greg,
Regardless of the many articles to the contrary, THERE IS NO PRACTICAL way to drain all the international liquidity created.
There are many academic approaches, but none can function without slamming the economy of the US and Euroland into a tailspin of epic proportions.
What I am telling you is absolute and incontrovertible FACT.
That is why this entire drama is so dangerous.
All the best,
Jim
Dear Jim,
John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com work is unmatched.
MOPE positions rising nominal stock prices and bouncing consumer confidence as leading economic indicators. This works as long as you don’t check the engine under the hood. Lift up the hood, and you’ll find rising deficits, a falling dollar/rising gold, and monster bear markets in bonds and equities when priced in a stable currency such as gold. MOPE makes for good entertainment, though.
CIGA Eric
Hi Jim,
I can hear it now: Bernanke to Lockhart – “Mr. Lockhart, do you care to revise your statement, Sir?”
Best,
CIGA Bernie
Real US unemployment rate at 16 pct: Fed official
The real US unemployment rate is 16 percent if persons who have dropped out of the labor pool and those working less than they would like are counted, a Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.
"If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking — so-called discouraged workers — and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart.
He underscored that he was expressing his own views, which did "do not necessarily reflect those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee," the policy-setting body of the central bank.
Jim,
You were right. Big, short, and most downplayed news of 2009.
"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."
– Henry Ford
Regards,
CIGA Eric
Fed urges secrecy on banks in bailout programs
Thu Aug 27, 2009 12:27pm EDT
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve asked a federal judge not to enforce her order that it reveal the names of the banks that have participated in its emergency lending programs and the sums they received, saying such disclosure would threaten the companies and the economy.
Inverse Relationship between USDX and Stocks
by CIGA Eric 8/27/09
- Down dollar/Up stocks; Up dollar/Down stocks since 2000.
- As the credit troubles intensify, the correlation between the USDX and stocks has tightened.
- Keep in mind that a sustained rally in the USDX would imply weakness in stocks. This is an unacceptable combination for policy makers. This provides the foundation of the often cited rhetoric that there’s no political will in Washington to fight inflation (hyperinflation).
- Let this serve as a reminder that there’s a distinction between talk of a strong dollar (MOPE) and reality of such an outcome.
(Click chart to enlarge)
