Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Food for thought?

Carrying Several Passports? It’s Not Just for Spies
By MICHAEL T. LUONGO
Published: January 19, 2009

Alessandro Pappalardo, an artist in New York, holds passports from Italy and Argentina and, last year, added an American one. Previously an executive with Aerolíneas Argentinas, he said, “I used to go a lot to Brazil, and I would always decide what passport to show depending on what line was shorter.”

Stefan Stefanov, a citizen of the United States and Bulgaria who works for FirstApex Group in Warsaw, said he decided which passport to use depending on where he was going. “Of course, I don’t hide that I am a U.S. citizen,” Mr. Stefanov said. “But I don’t parade it either.”

Dual passports are no longer the sole province of people who grew up in more than one country. Millions of American citizens potentially qualify for various reasons — ethnic heritage, religion, country of birth or where their spouse was born.

“The fact is people don’t think about it until it is pointed out to them,” said Jan Dvorak, president of Travisa, a passport services company in Washington. Some Americans, he said, “don’t realize that they actually have dual nationality.”

While there are no hard numbers, more Americans seem to be trying to qualify for additional passports. “Savvy travelers and business travelers want to make sure they have two passports based on nationality because there are certain advantages,” Mr. Dvorak said.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Keep a close eye on both Russia and former USSR nations making a MAJOR thrust into property and company mineral acquisitions as North American and South African majors slumber on.

Russia Prepares To Rival Rio And BHP
Vidya Ram , 01.16.09, 01:15 PM EST

A merger of Russian miners could be unwelcome competition for beleaguered European miners.

If plummeting commodity prices haven’t been keeping Rio Tinto’s Tom Albanese and BHP Billiton’s Marius Kloppers awake at night, the latest news out of Russia almost certainly will. Plans to create a super-miner, by merging three troubled miners, seems to be gaining momentum.

Making a big push internationally into the mining sector may not be ideal for the firms, timing wise, but with the backing of the comparatively-deep-pocketed Kremlin, a super-miner could pose a new and un-welcomed threat for the likes of BHP and Rio Tinto (nyse: RTP – news – people ). The super-miner would be in line for a bailout from the Kremlin should it come into existance.

Talks over a possible merger of mining firms Rusal, Norilsk Nickel and Metalloinvest are taking place in Moscow, reported a number of papers, including Russia’s Vedomosti. Rusal and Norilsk Nickel were unavailable for comment at the time of publication, while Metalloinvest said it would be responding to requests next week.

That same report suggested that the state could acquire a stake by converting the firms’ joint debts into a stake in the new company.

Norilsk Nickel Chief Executive Denis Morozov, which heads the palladium and nickel miner, had previously talked of his ambitions of making his firm the BHP Billiton (nyse: BHP – news – people ) of Russia. However, hopes of any merger in the mining sector had been held up by constant bickering over control, until now. (See "Russian Billionaires Tussel Over Nickel Giant.")

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As a note of reference, please read the total history of the Lincoln administration as a historical reality, not a political construct.

Our new administration has undertaken that administration as its example to emulate.

The wartime President Lincoln set the blue print for the Cheney/Bush Administration.

Before you scream, study!

 

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

It will take both fancy bookkeeping and a miracle to hold it there.

Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion (Update1)
By Henry Meyer and Ayesha Daya

Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting the banking system is “effectively insolvent,” said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”

Losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide have risen to more than $1 trillion since the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

President Barack Obama will have to use as much as $1 trillion of public funds to shore up the capitalization of the banking sector, following the $350 billion injection by the Bush administration, Roubini told Bloomberg News. Congress last year approved a $700 billion rescue fund, of which half remains to be disbursed.

Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank by assets, posted a quarterly loss of $1.79 billion last week, its first since 1991, and received $138 billion in emergency government funds. Citigroup Inc.posted an $8.29 billion fourth-quarter loss, completing its worst year, and plans to split in two under Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit’s plan to rebuild a capital base eroded by the credit crisis.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

This is not without logic as an enduring recovery in China first would make a freely trading Chinese currency attractive as a reserve item. Time then could make the Chinese unit a major reserve currency.

Should that occur "Lenin" would take the position of the world’s leading economist. Think about that and know Greenspan is responsible for this phenomena with the support of all the OTC derivative traders around the world.

Jim Rogers sees Renminbi replacing US Dollar as world reserve currency
Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Legendary global investor Jim Rogers said the Renminbi may possibly replace the US dollar as the international reserve currency 15 years from now.

Addressing the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong, an event that brought together about a thousand participants from around the globe, Rogers said he found Asia to be the place where "the world is changing" as he toured the world in 1990 through 1992.

"This is going to be the new centre of the world, not just the financial but the political world," he said.

The only currency that could replace the US dollar "this year" would be the euro, while the only conceivable currency that can replace the dollar as the reserve currency "15 years from now" is renminbi.

Rogers said he believed China will rise despite possible setbacks.

The United States also experienced setbacks and had various problems back in the 19th century, which, nevertheless, did not stop it from becoming the greatest success of the 20th century, he said.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Let’s not take our eyes off Pakistan.

Pakistan kills 22 militants near Afghan border: officials

PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AFP) — Pakistani troops backed by war planes and helicopter gunships on Tuesday killed 22 militants in a major offensive against insurgents near the Afghan border, security officials said.

"We have launched a major operation in Mohmand district early this morning," a paramilitary force official told AFP.

"At least 22 insurgents have died so far. Aircraft participated in the operation in Mohmand for the first time," he said.

Troops pounded suspected militant locations in the northwestern tribal region and destroyed several bases, said the official requesting anonymity.

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India tests missile amid tensions with Pakistan
Tue Jan 20, 2009 2:59am EST

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India successfully tested a supersonic cruise missile Tuesday in a remote desert close to the Pakistan border, officials said, amid continuing tensions with its nuclear-armed rival over the November attacks in Mumbai.

Indian officials say the launch of the Brahmos was only part of ongoing reliability tests, but some analysts say the timing was sensitive and could alarm Pakistan.

"The test was successful," a defense ministry spokesman said, without giving details.

The Brahmos, which can travel at up to 2.8 times the speed of sound and has a range of 290 km (180 miles), was tested at Pokhran, a desert town along India-Pakistan border and also the site of India’s 1998 nuclear tests.

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