Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Israel makes a major miscalculation.
Pakistan goes nuclear
Turkey is a victim.
It is all percolating.
Cyr: Turkey at crossroads as a nation
Submitted by SHNS on Tue, 01/13/2009 – 13:14.
At the start of the New Year, Russia publicly squabbles with Ukraine over the terms of shipping gas to the European Union, while Turkish police have announced the discovery of a very large weapons cache buried in a pine forest near Ankara.
The former dispute appears to be resolved for the moment. Ukraine has just agreed to shipping terms that Moscow has demanded. At the same time, steadily growing Russian nationalism is reflected in such high-handed handling of plentiful oil and gas resources. The collapse of the Moscow stock market has fueled the emotional fire encouraging such actions.
The Turkey case is very ominous. Government authorities have stated publicly that the arms are tied to a sizable plot to overthrow the Islamic government of the nation.
These two problems together provide the incoming Obama administration with an opportunity. Washington immediately should give high priority to Turkey as an alternate energy transshipment route. Turkey is a vital ally of the United States, second in importance only to Israel in the Middle East, but the Bush administration leaves office with our relations badly damaged.
Over the past two years, the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey. The selection of former foreign minister and practicing Moslem Abdullah Gul as president reinforced fears of Islamic extremism and political instability. The president’s wife Hayrunnisa publicly wears the religious headscarf, formally banned in public buildings, and has become an iconic figure for the rise of religion in modern Turkey.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The following opinion on the Pakistan situation seems quite well informed:
"On another front, the seeming quiet between India and Pakistan is deceptive. I expect an out-of-the-blue strike by India on 4GW training camps in Pakistan, a Pakistani defeat and possibly a collapse of the Pakistani government in consequence. How many collapses of governments Pakistan can endure before the state itself crumbles is a key strategic question. The answer, I suspect, is not many more. Pakistan could offer Islamic 4GW forces an earth-shaking victory in 2009."
Click here to read the full article…
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
I am in shock!
The Secretary of the US Treasury and President of the NY Federal Reserve Bank!
However after once again reviewing Mr. Geithner’s bio below, you know he will be confirmed regardless of tax problems.
Obama’s Treasury Pick Didn’t Pay Taxes
By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS
WASHINGTON (Jan. 14) – Revelations about Timothy Geithner’s tax problems derailed Senate Democrats’ plans Wednesday to speed him to confirmation as treasury secretary so he could be sworn in on Inauguration Day.
President-elect Barack Obama had hoped for Geithner to be approved quickly so he could join other officials in urgent efforts to revive the failing national economy beginning immediately after Obama’s own inauguration next Tuesday. Now, Geithner’s confirmation hearing isn’t scheduled until next Wednesday, with Senate debate and a vote some time after that.
A top Republican objected to a hearing this Friday for Geithner at the Senate Finance Committee after the panel disclosed he failed to pay $34,000 in taxes several years ago.
Still, Democrats and Republicans on the panel voiced strong support for Geithner, who was phoning senators individually to persuade them that his tax problems were the result of innocent mistakes, not deliberate attempts to avoid paying the Internal Revenue Service.
Timothy F. Geithner
Timothy F. Geithner became the ninth president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on November 17, 2003. In that capacity, he serves as the vice chairman and a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the group responsible for formulating the nation’s monetary policy.
Mr. Geithner joined the Department of Treasury in 1988 and worked in three administrations for five Secretaries of the Treasury in a variety of positions. He served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs from 1999 to 2001 under Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers.
He was director of the Policy Development and Review Department at the International Monetary Fund from 2001 until 2003. Before joining the Treasury, Mr. Geithner worked for Kissinger Associates, Inc.
Mr. Geithner graduated from Dartmouth College with a bachelor’s degree in government and Asian studies in 1983 and from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies with a master’s in International Economics and East Asian Studies in 1985. He has studied Japanese and Chinese and has lived in East Africa, India, Thailand, China, and Japan.
Mr. Geithner serves as chairman of the G-10’s Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems of the Bank for International Settlements. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Group of Thirty.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The COMEX is pulling your golden chair one more time.
Buying the near contract and taking delivery out of the Comex warehouse is your only weapon.
Gold Rush
Buying the Real Thing
Edited by ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL
A look back at last week’s important events.
INVESTORS ARE TAKING A CUE FROM THE RAPPERS and adding more bling to their lives — not to hang around their necks, but to stash away in safes.
Physical gold is hot. Not gold stocks or ETFs, but the glittering stuff itself. You’ll read about it in our write-up of the latest Barron’s Roundtable, and the numbers are irrefutable. London-based World Gold Council said investment demand for gold, mainly bars and coins, surged 121% in the third quarter as investors rushed to safety.
But how, exactly, do you buy gold? Though you can visit a goldsmith and buy 24-karat jewelry, gold bugs favor bars, both big and small, and guaranteed coins issued by various world mints. Coins are easier to trade, but both coins and bars can be bought through hundreds of dealers’ sites, including onlygold.com, kitco.com and finest known.com. One site, goldmoney.com, even stores your gold.
Bars range in size from one gram to 400 troy ounces, while bullion coins come in weights of 1/20 ounce to 1000 grams. James DiGeorgia, the founder and publisher of goldandenergyadvisor.com, recommends the popular American Eagle or Buffalo coins. They generally fetch $25 to $70 above spot-gold prices, but you might score a better deal by buying directly from the U.S. Mint. DiGeorgia’s other advice: Never buy coins that are scratched.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Mumbai today:
India ‘notes Pakistan troop move’
By Sanjoy Majumder
BBC News, Delhi
The head of the Indian army says it has noted that Pakistan had moved some troops to its border with India in the wake of the Mumbai attacks.
Gen Deepak Kapoor acknowledged that there had been an increase in tension.
He said that Delhi was keeping all its options open but that military action would be the last resort.
Delhi believes the Mumbai attacks that killed more than 170 people were planned and executed from Pakistani soil. Islamabad denies involvement.
No state of alert
Addressing a news conference in the Indian capital Gen Kapoor said that Pakistan had moved some troops from the federally administered tribal areas along the Afghan frontier to its eastern border with India.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
A 1.2 trillion dollar Federal Budget deficit which is just for starters, plus Pakistan should keep the new Administration busy.
Military Report: Mexico, Pakistan at Risk of ‘Rapid and Sudden Collapse’
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Mexico and Pakistan are at risk of a "rapid and sudden collapse," according to a recent report from the U.S. Joint Forces Command.
The assessment comes as President-elect Barack Obama prepares to tackle international challenges including the conflict in Gaza, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and tensions between India and Pakistan.
"In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico," the report says.
A spokeswoman for the U.S. Joint Forces Command said the latest assessment was likely written before the Mumbai attacks which further inflamed tensions in South Asia.
The Joint Operating Environment report, meant to examine worldwide security trends, says Pakistan, in the event of such a rapid collapse, would be susceptible to a "violent and bloody civil and sectarian war" made more dangerous by concerns over the country’s nuclear arsenal.
The report says that "perfect storm of uncertainty" by itself might require U.S. engagement.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This is no joke. I am in Johannesburg with my African family doing just this.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
God help us all!
The cost of bailouts will be no less than $17.2 trillion, and that will not make things alright.
1. This would never have happened if OTC derivatives did not exist.
2. Confidence is going to crack wide open, all at once, as if the world financial stepped into a hidden crevasse.
3. Hyperinflation is totally unavoidable – totally, absolutely, and without a shadow of a doubt.
4. Gold is the only answer. There is no other answer. Use it or lose everything you have and are.
5. The perps should be sent to one large island and then that island sent to hell.
6. This pervasive financial crime, OTC derivatives, is a CAPITAL crime that will in time be dealt with accordingly, if not by law then by the injured.
7. Long term unemployed get very angry.
8. The dollar is headed to .52 USDX
9. Gold, the value of insurance, is headed to $1200 then $1650 then to Alf’s more precise levels of:
Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)
Those of you not insured in gold are simply, blind, silly fools
Banks in Need of Even More Bailout Money
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS and ERIC DASH
Published: January 13, 2009
WASHINGTON — Even before word came on Tuesday that Citigroupmight split into pieces to shore up its finances, an unpleasant message was moving through Congress and President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team: the banks need more taxpayer money.
In all likelihood, a lot more money.
Mr. Obama seems to know it; a week before his swearing-in, he is lobbying Congress to release the other half of the financial industry bailout fund. Democratic leaders in Congress seem to know it, too; they are urging their rank and file to act quickly to release the rescue money. And Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, certainly knows it.
On Tuesday, Mr. Bernanke publicly made the case that one of the most unpopular and most scorned programs in Washington — the $700 billion bailout program — needs to pour hundreds of billions more into the very banks and financial institutions that already received federal money and caused much of the credit crisis in the first place.
The most glaring example that the banking system needs even more help is Citigroup. Though it already has received $45 billion from the Treasury, it is in such dire straits that it is breaking itself into parts.
Like many banks, Citi is finding that its finances keep deteriorating as the economy continues to weaken.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Pakistan today.
Pakistan dismisses Indian data as ‘not evidence’
The Associated Press
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan: Pakistan’s prime minister has played down the significance of a dossier handed over by India about the Mumbai attacks, saying it was just information and "not evidence," state media reported.
"All that has been received from India is some information. I say information because these are not evidence," Yousuf Raza Gilani told parliament late Tuesday, according to the Associated Press of Pakistan.
Gilani’s remarks were likely to anger New Delhi, which says the dossier provides evidence that Pakistani militants staged the November slaughter of 164 people. India specifically blames Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant group believed to have links to Pakistani intelligence.
Pakistan only recently acknowledged that the only surviving Mumbai gunman was Pakistani, but it insists none of its state agencies played a role in the attacks. Under international pressure, Pakistan has detained some suspects allegedly linked to the attacks, while repeatedly calling on India to provide evidence to allow legal prosecutions.
The dossier, handed over on Jan. 5, includes transcripts of phone calls allegedly made during the siege by the attackers and their handlers in Pakistan. Previously, India had given Pakistan a letter from the lone surviving gunman, Mohammed Ajmal Kasab, that reportedly says he and the nine other gunmen were Pakistani.
