Posted at 10:25 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

It is never good to slap your banker in the face lest you find your credit cards cancelled!

Beijing Responds To Trump Charge China Is A “Grand Champion At Currency Manipulation”
February 24, 2017

When it comes to the latest US stance vis-a-vis China’s currency manipulation, the jury is out, and based on two recent statements it is more confused than ever.

The reason why is that shortly after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said in a Bloomberg TV interview that there is “no urgency to brand China a currency manipulator”, and that no announcement on currency manipulation will come before the Treasury’s April report (which contradicted an October pledge by candidate Donald Trump to direct his Treasury secretary to name China a manipulator on the first day of his administration), hours later Reuters released an interview with Trump in which he accused China of being a “grand champion” at currency manipulation, adding he had not “held back” in his assessment that China manipulates its yuan currency.

“I think they’re grand champions at manipulation of currency. So I haven’t held back. We’ll see what happens.”

This morning China responded Trump’s accusation, when Beijing said it has no intention of using currency devaluation to its advantage in trade, which presumably excludes China’s August 2015 devaluation which unleashed a period of acute market volatility. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he hoped the United States could “fully and correctly” view the exchange rate issue.

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Posted at 10:10 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Dear CIGAs,

Registered stockholders of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration wishing to discuss the annual general meeting are requested to send your respective contact information to treceo108@gmail.com. Please include the best time to contact you in your email so I can personally answer any questions you may have.

Respectfully yours,
Jim Sinclair

Posted at 5:08 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Question of the day to readers is what rights under the constitution do illegal aliens have?

The answer is simple. It is none.

Posted at 1:09 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Interest rates are blowing out and the question is who goes first

January was the worst month for European government bonds in history with all the bonds blowing out. TCW, the US asset manager that runs world’s largest actively managed bond fund, has eliminated its exposure to Eurozone bank debt over fears these lenders are “excessively risky”. Soon the interest rates will reach crucial levels led by the US. What I mean by that is that the US Treasury 10y rates will reverse the 35-year trend and exceed the 3% level which will cause huge bond losses. The way the US interest rates go the rest of the world goes especially in the intertwined world we are living today.

10-year U.S. Treasuries are resting at 2.45% because the ECB and BOJ are buying $150 billion a month of their own bonds and much of that money then flows from 10 basis points JGB’s and 45 basis point Bunds into 2.45% U.S. Treasuries. A $12 trillion global central bank balance sheet looks permanent and is growing at over $1 trillion a year, thanks to the ECB and the BOJ. Without that financial methadone, both bond and stock markets worldwide would sink and produce a tantrum of significant proportions. Gross believes that without QE from the ECB and BOJ that 10-year U.S. Treasuries would rather quickly rise to 3.5% and the U.S. economy would sink into recession. And with scarcity of supply of long-term government bonds the illiquidity is severely constraining the efficiency of the bond-buying program of the central banks in keeping interest rates down.

We see situations of upward pressure on interest rates in Europe with Italian interest rates rising from 1% in the beginning of September to 2.35% (+135%) on January 30, 2017. In Germany the pace of inflation more than doubled in December, driven by a surge in oil (low base effect). Consumer prices rose 1.7% from a year ago, recording the biggest jump on record according to the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden. German interest rates rose from a negative 0.20% at the end of September to a positive 0.50% on January 30. And then we of course have the Japanese situation. Japan’s 10-year yield surged as traders judged the central bank’s recent expanded bond purchases of 450 billion yen ($4 billion) to be insufficient to cap borrowing costs as global rates continued rising and steepening around the globe. As a result the 10Y yield on the JGBs rose as much as 4 bps to 0.14% on February 2, 2017, the highest since January of 2016, the market was clearly hoping for even more. Furthermore there may be a scarcity in long-dated supply, arguably the stuff of Kuroda’s nightmares. We see the same situation of scarcity of supply everywhere and thus the failing of the central banks policies.

Italy world’s third largest bond market (€2.2trn) could cause the dominos to fall

Italy is the third or fourth largest bond market in the world amounting to €2.2trn with bank NPLs (Non-Performing Loans) of €360bn and youth unemployment of 40%. Do you think that Italy raising €20bn and “rescuing” Monte Paschi with €8.8bn solves the Italian banking crisis? Think again what do you think what interest rates rising from 0.99% September 1, 2016 to 2.35% on January 30, 2017 are telling us. If it is risk or inflation doesn’t really matter rates have more than doubled since September and I think we will see 4% in Italy before the end of 2017 worsening the Italian debt situation further.

Next to that without any stable Government, from 1945 to 1994 (49 years) Italy had 61 Governments, how much accountability do you think there really is and time to seriously tackle structural problems. On January 25, 2017 Italy’s Constitutional Court approved a new voting system based on proportional representation that raises the chance of an early election this summer whilst for the time being an interim cabinet has been appointed. On top of the Italian conundrum we have the elections in The Netherlands, March 13, France, April 23 and Germany, September 2017 that are clearly signifying a pull to the right, with people fed up with politicians and an islamitization of Europe, representing multiple potential exits from the EU which each can cause the break up of the EU with all its consequences.

The tools in the toolbox are getting exhausted and there is no plan B!

It should be clear by now that it looks like all the tools in the toolbox are getting exhausted and it feels like all these events are converging with the weakest chain (3% US Treasury rates, China’s Yuan, Italy’s banks/bond market) snapping first subsequently followed by the lesser weak chains. This world is more interconnected than it has ever been (all banks hold billions of national and foreign government paper and international trade) in history and therefore the danger of a global ripple effect is more serious than ever. France for example holds in excess of €250bn of Italian bonds. And Germany stands out as the biggest creditor with net claims of €754.1bn. They can kiss goodbye to that money! Less than 4 years ago, and shortly after his infamous “whatever it takes” threat to speculators, Mario Draghi responded to a question, saying, “there is no Plan B” when it comes to contingency plans for a Eurozone nation leaving the monetary union. So much for that, he is basically saying “bad luck” if it doesn’t work.

Draghi was also quoted saying “that member states can exit the EU but first have to repay their debt”. Though when like Italy you have €2.2trn in Government debt and a Debt/GDP ratio of 132%, youth unemployment of 40% and NPL €360bn+ explain to me how you are going to repay debt being Italy or any country for that sake? And when Italy reinstates the Lire how is this currency inheriting a huge debt load going to be well positioned to repay the huge Euro debt? Well in one quite simple answer it will not, it will further undermine the credibility of debt and the currencies. Conclusion ergo an exit of Italy out of the EU will cause huge debt defaults. And I don’t believe investors will massively flee into the US dollar because an Italian exit will finally make investors aware that debt is debt and the situation isn’t better in Japan, China or the US for that sake.

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© Gijsbert Groenewegen

Posted at 9:51 AM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

Please send your questions for Bill and Jim’s weekend recording.  Please title your email “Q+A session” so it can be easily recognized and pulled from the inbox.  We ask that your questions be directly to the point and not more than 3-4 sentences.  Send your questions to  bholter@hotmail.com until 6:00pm this evening.

Posted at 4:37 PM (CST) by & filed under General Editorial.

My Dear Extended Family and Friends,

Staying home or leaving in an emergency was discussed briefly in the original “Be Prepared” article,

and again in “Be Prepared – Leave or Stay in an Emergency”.

“Bugging Out” is an expression which likely originated during the Korean War and is used by military personnel for swiftly leaving.  We may not always have the ability in an emergency to remain at home even if we had previously planned and prepared to do so.   It is for this reason this topic needs to be addressed further.  This is evident in this past week’s evacuation of nearly 200,000 people in Northern California in the path of the crumbling Oroville Dam.

If you live in a place where an emergency can be predicted, or is predicable, you have time to plan and being prepared and staying home may be your best choice.  When an emergency arises where you cannot, or are unlikely to survive if you remain at home, your planning to remain at home goes unexpectedly out the window.  It is best to be prepared for any eventuality.  People living in New Orleans had advance warning that Hurricane Katrina was coming and were expected to touch land there.  Many people remained in their homes despite mandatory evacuation orders.  Many could not evacuate because either they did not want to (probably from normalcy bias) or they had nowhere to go other than a shelter.  They had no plan to get elsewhere.  The normalcy bias can be created from repeated and constant warnings, which do not manifest.  This is the “crying wolf” situation which may give people a false sense of security in not leaving from the belief that this situation will be like so many before it, which did not result in dire consequences.

Many emergencies are not foreseeable and arise without warning, like the recent incident with the Oroville Dam.  You may have planned to be able to remain home for a grid down situation or other possible/foreseeable emergency, but probably not for a massive flood which would destroy everything in its path.  Planning to Bug Out, even if you don’t anticipate the need to, is just good planning and common sense.  Not all emergencies may permit us to remain at home.  Not all Bug Out situations are large-scale mandatory evacuations.  Some emergencies that may make you leave where you previously planned to remain could be small-scale emergencies, like a fire in your apartment building.  The previous Be Prepared article regarding staying or leaving in an emergency was more addressed at situations and circumstance in which you could anticipate the danger and also concerned assessing your risks to make an informed decision to leave or stay.  This article addresses the scenario where you previously planned to stay, but you find yourself in a situation where you see no choice but to go, your survival dictates that you leave.

Water, food, clothing and supplies (medications, first aid protection, etc.) should be planned and provided for in advance, even if you don’t see the need for a future Bug Out scenario.  These lifesaving needs must be consolidated into a grab and go bag.  These are called Bug Out Bags (BOB) and should be your first order of preparation even if you don’t plan to leave home.  You can Google recommended and suggested content and carriers for your BOB.   A backpack used as a schoolbook bag isn’t very expensive and they are readily available in most places in the US and most countries.  The content of your BOB is not discussed in this limited article.  Your needs are as unique as you are.  Comprehensive lists can be easily found on the Internet.  Consider your circumstances and do a bit of research.  Looking at the lists prepared by others will give you ideas for your own BOB.  Do you have children, pets, disabled loved ones?, etc.  Every individual in your household, family or group should have a BOB.  This includes children and pets.  These bags are sometimes referred to as GOOD bags.  “GOOD” is short for Get Out Of Dodge.  Regardless of what it is called, your preparedness needs to include a BOB.

Where Be Prepared – Leave or Stay was about what to consider in determining whether to hunker down or bug out, this article is more how to plan and what to do if you must leave.

Have and maintain your BOB.

Have a place to go – don’t just show up unexpectedly and uninvited at Aunt Millie’s rural home.  Be sure you are welcome and expected in a Bug Out situation.

Plan your bug out route.  Know many ways and routes get where you are going, and know them without needing to resort to electronic communications/devices, GPS, cell, etc.  Have a good map and know how to read it.

Plan rest stops along the way.  Have enough fuel for your car already stored and stabilized at home so you don’t need to stop to refuel.  Renew your fuel every few months.  Recycle the stored fuel into your car or lawn mower, and store and stabilize fresh fuel.

If you are in an urban area, you may not have a vehicle of your own.  Depending on how quickly you must Bug Out, know where to rent a car, and have enough cash to pay for it.  If you don’t have the option to rent a vehicle, know how to get as close to your retreat by public transportation and know walking routes in the alternative.  Plan the safest walking routes you can and have a companion or more if possible.  Many people, especially in urban areas are on their own on a daily basis.  There is safety in numbers, and if possible plan an evacuation with others your trust.  If you can’t plan to be with others for whatever reason and you must leave your home, suggestions for travel on foot are below.

If you are bugging out in your car, have your BOB(s) in the car and also water.  Drive with your doors locked and make very effort not to stop if there is a significant exodus from you area.  Your goal is to get to a safe place you hopefully planned in advance.  Plan to travel in a caravan with others if possible.  Have a meet up place en route.  Turn interior lights off in the passenger compartment of your vehicle so that opening a car door will not attract attention if you are traveling at night.  Have stored gas for fueling en route.  Listen to the radio so you may no what the traffic situation is ahead, if possible.  AM radio stations may be best.  Know the emergency radio channels in your area.  Have a compass if you get diverted on a roadway.  Review the personal safety suggestions below for traveling on foot.

If you need to walk to Bug Out you are much more exposed and need to plan differently.

If you are on your own or only with a couple of other people on foot, great care may be needed.  If there are large numbers of people on foot, you may be safer in the crowd.  If you don’t feel the crowd in a safe place or you are on your own, or there are only a couple of you traveling on foot together, your plans may need to be along the lines of stealth travel, which is basically urban/wilderness evasion.  Follow your gut instinct.  If you don’t feel safe in an evacuating crowd – separate from them.

General things to consider:

If you have a dog, teach your dog not to bark.  A dog may seem like an asset, but if you need stealth, a barking dog could be a death knell.  No-bark training can be accomplished with no-bark electronic collars.  If you can’t bug out with your dog or cat, have a humane and responsible plan for them.  Domestic animals can’t survive on their own and are dependent on humans for their care.  This is very hard to write because for most people, our pets are our family members.  If you are on foot, don’t look like you have money or resources.  Looking like you have expensive/great gear will draw a target on your back.  Don’t buy bright colored (red etc.) attire, footwear and back packs.  Don’t look like you are in the military if you aren’t.  Having lots of visible trick kit is asking for a problem.  Don’t plan to cook food.  If you are in a remote enough area you could consider a Dakota pit/ Dakota fire hole, but otherwise, plan cold food for your travels.  If you don’t know what a Dakota fire hole is, allow Google to be your friend.  Cooking and the smell of food attracts the attention of anyone who can smell it.  The sense of smell in humans is highly developed in most people.  Keep moving, and away from others.  Travel off the side of the road whenever possible, and if on rural roads don’t be in view of lone passing vehicles.  Turn electronic devices to vibrate only.  Don’t use flashlights or other lights after dark.  Even a lit cigarette can be seen and smelled at a great distance and give away your location.  Layer clothing.  Have large trash bags to protect your BOB and your clothing if there is precipitation, or to use as a vapor barrier on the ground.  If you enter upon private property, ask if you can stay the night before you start trespassing.  Learn to hide in plain sight.  In general, the less conspicuous you are, the safer you are.  Have cash in various places hidden in your clothing and gear and some hidden in a separate place when you camp for a night.  There are people who camp all over, even in urban parks who can’t be seen because of their skill and stealth.  Don’t stay in the same place for more than one night.  Know some basics about travel evasion as you move toward your retreat.  Do some Internet research for “How to Stealth Camp.”  A pocket edition of the SAS Survival Guide on hand can be a life saver.  Have extra bandages if your feet get sore and have some duct tape in the alternative.  Duct tape is useful for so many things.  If you are on foot, you don’t have a car for transporting water, know where water is available along your route.  Don’t underestimate the hazard of animals, wild or domestic.  When you move around when you camp, and as you travel, try to leave no trace, especially any footprints.  Use your instinct and situational awareness.  If something doesn’t feel right, it probably isn’t.  Do a lot of due diligence and research because many bug out plans could get you killed.  The suggestions here are for your consideration and further research.  Most of these suggestions are safety related but only you can decide what is best for you in your situation.

Have a Bug Out plan and practice your plan with some dry runs.  Make sure your loved ones know the plan and what to do in an emergency if you need to leave.

Plan for your defense, safety and protection and the protection of those you love with the weaponry of your choice.  Anything is a weapon in knowledgeable and capable hands.

Know that you can get to your safe area or your retreat and let nothing influence or undermine that mindset.  That mindset needs to be focused on preparedness and awareness.  Don’t stress, but be aware.  Thoughtfully assess the risks you may face in traveling.  As a traveler you are vulnerable to the risks of petty crime. Plan your Bug Out and follow your plan, unless circumstances dictate otherwise.  If Bugging out is necessary for your survival – Know that you can do it.  There is nothing more resilient than the human spirit.

Best Regards,

Jim

Posted at 4:14 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Would you be ready to protect your family? Think about preparedness.

Powerful Storms Continue To Batter Northern California Amid Concern About Levees
February 21, 2017

An “atmospheric river” continued to batter parts of Northern California on Tuesday, causing widespread flooding.

The heavy rains prompted the National Weather Service to warn of a dam failure outside Carson City, Nev., saying that it was “not a drill” and that residents should “move to higher ground now.”

But less than 90 minutes after issuing the alert, the agency changed its report to say the retention basin in Dayton, Nev., had not failed. Instead, it was full and overflowing into drainage areas, the weather service said.

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