Posted at 9:36 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

“Just look at us. Everything is backwards, everything is upside down. Doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, psychiatrists destroy minds, scientists destroy truth, major media destroys information, religions destroy spirituality and governments destroy freedom.”

― Michael Ellner …”and money was destroyed a long time ago.” – Bill Holter and Jim Sinclair

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Do you think allowing James Comey to testify to Congress before revealing these revelations was by accident? I would say Mr. Comey just got punked “by accident on purpose”…Can’t wait to see MSM’s reaction to this…!

House Intelligence Chair Devin Nunes: ‘Incidental Collection’ Of Communications From Trump Team During Transition
March 22, 2017

WASHINGTON — In what he called “significant developments,” House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) said there was “incidental collection” of communications from President Trump’s team between the election and Trump’s swearing in — and Trump himself may have been inadvertently surveilled by U.S. intelligence officials.

Nunes, a Trump ally who is heading the House’s investigations into Russia’s meddling in the election, said he was “alarmed” by the developments. But he repeatedly said that the surveillance was obtained legally from normal intelligence monitoring of foreign sources.

“This appears to be all legally collected foreign intelligence,” he told reporters during a Wednesday press conference on Capitol Hill. “It was all normal foreign surveillance.”

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

This guy obviously ate too many tainted spuds!

Posted at 10:15 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Yes Wolfgang correct, the Fed will be the buyer of last and only resort.

Bill

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Bill,

Sometimes Central Bank actions defy reasoning. In this case it’s raising interest rates in the face of an economic environment that’s on life support.

Lowering rates to ramp up bond prices has been the tempting feature of Fed policy for the past decade. This game has now run its course and the market knows this. Now they will raise rates in an attempt to draw buyers. A closer look at the underlying situation reveals their rationale.

We are all aware of the continual unloading of U.S. Treasuries by Central Banks throughout the world, especially China and Russia . This movement is gaining traction and will not end soon.

Someone has to pick up the slack. It certainly won’t be any funds or trading houses, as the run in yields toward zero has achieved its objective and the only real direction now is backtracking towards “normalization.”

Therefore, it’s up to the Fed to support its own paper. The way they do this is to raise rates and make US paper more competitive with foreign paper, as well as tempt the funds to move away from rich dividend equities and back into government paper. But at a cost….equity market turbulence.

“That said, a 3% Fed Funds rate would also lead to steep selloff in risk assets as the dividend yield on the S&P, currently at about 2%, would be about 1% below the risk free rate, leading to a wholesale “great rotation” out of stocks.”

Sure, the economy (the public) will draw the short straw with these actions, as they will promote a deeper slide into our recessionary environment. Higher rates will stifle growth. Quite simple.

“We could certainly debate why this expansion is already longer than normal, but strong growth is clearly not the reason. In fact, quite the opposite – a lackluster economic backdrop for years, leading to massive central bank support,has likely kept the cycle going more than anything else.”

There is, however, another option. And that may come to be their only option very soon. Printing fiat currency.

Print to repurchase debt and flood the landscape with green. Green paper that is!

When push comes to shove has the Fed ever really cared about the public? It’s always about corporate “care packages” at any cost. Always was, always will be.

CIGA Wolfgang Rech

Morgan Stanley: “Only One Thing Will Allow Central Banks To Keep The Party Going
March 19, 2017

Last week, we presented readers with the latest note from SocGen strategist. Albert Edwards, who explained why after so many years of false rate hike starts, the market not only responded to last week’s hike in a dovish manner – interpreting last Wednesday’s 0.25% hike as a 0.25% rate cut- but as Goldman Sachs showed previously, the dovish reaction was one of the strongest ones since the financial crisis, in other words: “the market no longer believes the Fed.” This is what Edwards said, citing his FX colleague Kit Juckes:

[T]he Fed’s reluctance to send an aggressive tightening signal, instead preferring to again shuffle upwards its dots just slightly, has disappointed markets. But to be fair, the problem isn’t really with the famous dots. It’s with the market, which just doesn’t believe the Fed will tighten as fast as they say they plan to (see left-hand chart below). If the market took the FOMC at their word and discounted a 3% Fed Funds rate at the end of 2019 and beyond, then we’d probably have a 3% nominal 10-year Treasury yield by now.”

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That said, a 3% Fed Funds rate would also lead to steep selloff in risk assets as the dividend yield on the S&P, currently at about 2%, would be about 1% below the risk free rate, leading to a wholesale “great rotation” out of stocks.

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Posted at 12:59 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Maybe they would have had better odds playing “Russian roulette”? As a side note, I searched for other sources on this topic via Bing and Yahoo. The entire first page on Yahoo were of articles claiming these 8 Russians ALL had ties to President Trump. Bing was even worse, their first two pages were filled with similar articles claiming ties to Mr. Trump. I wonder how this will square in the next week or two as the DNC back peddles and admits there is not nor has been a “Trump/Russia” connection? True information is becoming very difficult to obtain, “they” are coming for your mind …DO NOT LET THEM have it!

Another Senior Russian Official Has Died
March 19, 2017

Since the day of Donald Trump’s election, high-ranking Russian officials have been dropping like flies and today’s reports that a top official of Russia’s space agency has been found dead brings the total to eight.

As we noted previously, six Russian diplomats have died in the last 3 months – all but one died on foreign soil. Some were shot, while other causes of death are unknown. Note that a few deaths have been labeled “heart attacks” or “brief illnesses.”

1. You probably remember Russia’s Ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov — he was assassinated by a police officer at a photo exhibit in Ankara on December 19.

2. On the same day, another diplomat, Peter Polshikov, was shot dead in his Moscow apartment. The gun was found under the bathroom sink but the circumstances of the death were under investigation. Polshikov served as a senior figure in the Latin American department of the Foreign Ministry.

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Bill Holter’s Commentary

Please refer to our latest subscription article “Credit Impulse”. Credit creation is no longer growing, not a problem in a system built on equity …a HUGE problem however for one built on debt!

Bank Loan Creation Crashes At Fastest Pace Since The Financial Crisis
March 19, 2017

Last weekend, after looking at the latest H.8 statement by the Fed, we noted something concerning: total loans and leases by U.S. commercial banks were rising at an annual pace of about 4.6%, based on weekly Fed data. That is down from a 6.4% pace for all of last year and peak rates of around 8% in mid-2016. This is the slowest pace of debt creation since the spring of 2014. This deceleration has prompted numerous questions about the sustainability of the recovery, and led the WSJ to noted that the slowdown, “is at odds with the idea of a stronger economy and rising sentiment.”

But the slowdown was especially acute in the all important for growth Commercial and Industrial loan category, which after growing at a pace of 10% in the first half of 2016, had unexpectedly slowed to just 4.0%, nearly 50% lower than the 7% growth notched at the start of the year. This was the lowest pace of loan growth since July of 2011.

Fast forward one week, when after the latest update to the Fed’s latest weekly commercial bank loan data, we find that the trends have deteriorated substantially.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

“Has the Federal Reserve Gone Completely Insane?” The simple answer to this question is YES!

12 Reasons Why The Fed Just Made The Biggest Economic Mistake Since The Last Financial Crisis
March 19, 2017

Has the Federal Reserve gone completely insane? On Wednesday, the Fed raised interest rates for the second time in three months, and it signaled that more rate hikes are coming in the months ahead. When the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it becomes less expensive to borrow money and that tends to stimulate more economic activity. But when the Federal Reserve raises rates , that makes it more expensive to borrow money and that tends to slow down economic activity. So why in the world is the Fed raising rates when the U.S. economy is already showing signs of slowing down dramatically? The following are 12 reasons why the Federal Reserve may have just made the biggest economic mistake since the last financial crisis…

#1 Just hours before the Fed announced this rate hike, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s projection for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter fell to just 0.9 percent. If that projection turns out to be accurate, this will be the weakest quarter of economic growth during which rates were hiked in 37 years.

#2 The flow of credit is more critical to our economy than ever before, and higher rates will mean higher interest payments on adjustable rate mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt. Needless to say, this is going to slow the economy down substantially…

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Posted at 2:43 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Trump outlines Merkel’s multiple differences. Compliments of CIGA Gijsbert.

No Oval Office Handshake, No Warm Words About Her Country, A Lecture On Immigration And A Wiretapping Joke: Trump’s VERY Chilly Summit With Germany’s Merkel
March 17, 2017

President Donald Trump had his chilliest summit yet with a foreign leader as he met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel today for the first time.

Talks began with a warm welcome outside the West Wing but turned cold as Trump blew off an attempted handshake in the Oval Office and disagreed publicly with Merkel on almost every major international issue.

Trump opened up a joint news conference that his daughter Ivanka attended with a slap at Merkel over her open-door refugee policy. Declaring that ‘immigration is a privilege, not a right,’ Trump said the safety of the countries’ citizens ‘must always come first without question.’

He also pushed for her country to live up to its NATO commitment, stressing the ‘need for our NATO allies to pay their fair share for the cost of defense.’

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Posted at 2:42 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

- Industrial Production May Be Bottoming, Yet, There Are New Signals of Intensifying Economic Risk

- Production Was Flat in February, Minimally Positive Year-to-Year, with Gains in Manufacturing and Mining Offset by Weather-Distorted Utilities
- No Economic Expansion: Activity Held Below Pre-2007 Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 0.94% (-0.94%), Manufacturing Down by 4.97% (-4.97%)
- Major Downside Revisions to Production Activity of Recent Years Likely Loom with the March 31st Annual Benchmarking Going Back to 1972
- General Outlook Remains in Place for Continuing Near-Term Economic Stagnation and Renewed Downturn

“No. 874: February Industrial Production, Updated Economic Review”
www.shadowstats.com

Bill Holter’s Commentary

Imagine if they call out fake news with solid proof and logic in their findings?

Russian Parliament Launches Investigation Of “CNN And Other American Media”
March 18, 2017

A few days ago Jeanne Shaheen, a Democratic Senator from New Hampshire, introduced a piece of legislation that would give the Department of Justice “new authority” to investigate potential violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act by the ‘Russian Times’. Among other things, Shaheen said the legislation was necessary to determine whether “RT News is coordinating with the Russian government to spread misinformation and undermine our democratic process.” We won’t even bother to touch on the inherent hypocrisy of such a statement, but here is the press release from Shaheen’s website:

Following intelligence reports that RT News operates as a propaganda outlet for the Russian government, U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) has introduced legislation that gives the Department of Justice new authority to investigate potential violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act by RT America.

“We have good reason to believe that RT News is coordinating with the Russian government to spread misinformation and undermine our democratic process,” said Shaheen. “The American public has a right to know if this is the case. RT News has made public statements boasting that it can dodge our laws with shell corporations, and it’s time for the Department of Justice to investigate. My bill provides the authority needed to request documentation of RT News and find out who they’re accountable to.”

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Posted at 10:49 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Now this is what I call dissention.

Fed’s Kashkari Wants Plan On Balance Sheet Before Any More Rate Hikes
March 17, 2017

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, the lone dissenter against the U.S. central bank’s decision this week to raise interest rates, said on Friday the U.S. economy is still falling short on employment and inflation.

Even after the data support tightening, Kashkari said in a statement, the Fed should wait on raising interest rates until it publishes a detailed plan for how and when it will reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

“The announcement of our balance sheet plan could trigger somewhat tighter monetary conditions,” Kashkari said, resulting in the equivalent of a rate hike of unknown size. “After it has been published and the market response is understood, we can return to using the federal funds rate as our primary policy tool, with the balance sheet normalization under way in the background.”Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, the lone dissenter against the U.S. central bank’s decision this week to raise interest rates, said on Friday the U.S. economy is still falling short on employment and inflation.

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