Posted at 12:51 AM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

It has been said “truth” is a funny concept. What is truth to one may not be to another because opinions vary from one person to another. “Truth” in this context consists of one’s opinion or point of view. By this definition truth can be altered, changed or even “made”. For example, the truth believed and espoused by MSNBC is far different than that of FOX News, both by the reporters themselves and by viewers. Real truth however cannot be “made”, massaged or opined as it is mathematical in origin and more an issue of black and white.

The global financial system has gone awry where economic truth must be masked and hidden to cover the reality. Somehow our central planners think if the people “believe” something …then it “is”. I am here to tell you, no it is not. A perfect example of something completely out of whack but melded into the new “normal” are negative interest rates throughout much of Europe. These negative interest rates are no longer for only short dated maturities. Rates are negative in some cases out past 7-10 years!

How can this be? Investors are willing to lock in a guaranteed loss for 10 years or more? Rates have been pushed negative of course because the central planners want people to spend their money rather than save it. You see, “velocity” has crashed because people have tightened their belts in a move toward austerity …something the sovereign treasuries and central banks cannot even spell. Please keep in mind whether it be euros, yen or dollars, the central banks have the ability to print as many of these currency units as they choose to. Negative interest rates guarantee less “units” returned upon maturity and give less than zero risk compensation to offset the “printing” that has already been promised. In essence, savers are PAYING for the privilege to lose “units” even when central banks are promising to do their best to reduce the value of these units. The madness of crowds I guess?

Another example “truth” just does not add up is in the area of “swaps”. Just as GOFO rates in gold should never ever be negative, this also holds true for the swaps market. Currently, rates have gone negative which means the bankers and brokers perceived credit quality is actually rated higher than the issuing Treasury. Common sense would tell you if the U.S. Treasury were to default then no bank or broker with Treasuries in their portfolio would be left standing. I do not believe swaps have gone negative out of value “judgment”, I believe unencumbered collateral has become so scarce that mathematical insanity has become reality. Six months ago we were given a tip off this was coming. I wrote about it here titled “The Mother of all Margin Calls” …and now the ugly truth has arrived!

I would of course be remiss commenting without including the farce in the gold and silver markets. Yesterday’s post-Thanksgiving and illiquid trading day saw some 18,000 contracts sold at the COMEX within a 30 minute timeframe.


In fact, there were 4 single minutes which saw a total 7,000 contracts dumped on the market. For perspective, 18,000 contracts represents 1.8 million ounces of gold …while COMEX claims to have a grand total of 150,000 ounces available for delivery! 1.8 million ounces of gold is equal to well over one week’s production of every gold mine on the planet, 150,000 on the other hand is just over 16 hours! For further perspective, China has been importing over 1.3 million ounces of real physical gold each and every week and amounts to nearly 80% of all gold produced. Why is this important? China is importing each week nearly 10 times the total amount of gold COMEX has for delivery in total. Put another way, COMEX gold “pricing” rests on a foundation 10 times smaller than what China imports each and every week! How is it credible that COMEX can sell 12 times as much “gold” …in just 30 minutes as they claim to have available for delivery?

COMEX currently has a problem in my opinion. Their registered (dealer deliverable) category has not received any gold over the last two plus months and has done nothing but shrink to a level equal to just 16 hours of global production. First notice day for December gold is this coming Monday. With just one day left there are still 24,000 contracts open. If history is any guide, Monday will see a drop of 12,000 contracts and a 40% bleed down during the month. If this were to occur, we will see over 600,000 ounces standing with only 150,000 ounces available for delivery. We have seen this potential situation several times over the last couple of years but never with an available inventory as feeble as it is now.

My point to writing about the current COMEX conditions is simple. Though COMEX currently “prices” gold, they have little to no inventory to back them up. China imports more in a single day than what COMEX claims they have to deliver. Nearly any Black Swan, be it a financial, geopolitical or military event will strip the COMEX of any ability or credibility to continue as “manipulator in charge”. I have asked in several writings why the CFTC has allowed the pricing mechanism to be so corrupt after each blatant raid such as this past Friday’s. They found “nothing actionable” in the silver market which in my opinion is code speak for “we can’t arrest the government” …therefore “not actionable” in the interest of national security.

As for COMEX, I would ask this. Why is it allowed for any institution or group of institutions to sell in 30 minutes, twelve times the amount of paper contract gold than is claimed to exist for delivery? The December month alone looks to be quite problematic, why is this practice allowed as a failure to deliver could be created by a mere 1,500 contracts? Is the final solution a force majeure and just go on down the road?

As for you as an individual investor, can you see the danger here? A failure to deliver or a “caused” failure ending in a force majeure will be catastrophic. The candy store will be closed …and then what? Do you really believe metal will be available for you to purchase at any price even resembling the current? I have said all along, the entire game will change when the last ounce available for delivery is gone. When I say the “entire game” I am speaking to ALL of it. When the fraud in gold is exposed and understood, do you understand that the confidence in the entire financial system of dollars, Treasuries and all the rest will be broken for our lifetimes?

To finish, much of what we see in our daily lives is nothing more than a fraudulent mirage. Our way of life and standard of living depends entirely on this mirage and collective madness to continue. However, some very ugly truths that come naturally as a gift from Mother Nature herself have been appearing. These “ugly truths”, each and every one of them should be an impossibility in logical nature but they exist and are appearing with more frequency. Can you handle the ugly truth?

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome,  [email protected]

Posted at 1:21 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Russia bombards Syrian rebels near site of downed Russian jet

YAYLADAGI, Turkey (Reuters) – Russian forces launched a heavy bombardment against insurgent-held areas in Syria’s Latakia province on Wednesday, near where a Russian warplane had been shot down by Turkey the day before, rebels and a monitoring group said.

At least 12 air strikes hit Latakia’s northern countryside as pro-government forces clashed with fighters from al Qaeda’s Nusra Front and Turkmen insurgents in the Jabal Akrad and Jabal Turkman areas, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

A Turkmen commander said missiles fired from Russian warships in the Mediterranean were also hitting the area, as well as heavy artillery shelling.

Hassan Haj Ali, the head of Liwa Suqour al-Jabal, a rebel group operating in western Syria, also said there were fierce battles in the area, with Russian aircraft supporting pro-government forces.

Turkey on Tuesday shot down a Russian warplane that it said had entered Turkish airspace, something denied by Moscow.

It crashed in the Jabal Turkman area, the Observatory said.

Both pilots bailed out. The Russian Defence Ministry said one had been shot dead from the ground as he parachuted down, but that one was safe and had returned to Russia’s air base in western Syria.

However, a deputy commander of rebel Turkmen forces in Syria said on Tuesday that his men had shot both pilots dead as they parachuted down.

The incident was one of the most serious publicly acknowledged clashes for half a century between Russia and a NATO member country.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Turkey lie? Not so close to Thanksgiving!

Is Turkey Lying: Rescued Russian Pilot Says There Was No Warning Before F-16 Opened Fire
Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 10:26 -0500

The conflicting stories over yesterday’s dramatic downing of a Russian jet on the Syria-Turkish border continue to grow, and after the ongoing confusion whether the Russian pilot did or did not enter Turkish territory for a grand total of 17 seconds, moments ago Konstantin Murahtin, the co-pilot from the downed Russian jet who survived the ground fire by US-armed rebels unlike his pilot, and who was rescued by the Syrian army, said that contrary to official reports that Turkey had somehow warned the Russian jet “10 times” (in 17 seconds?) that it would fire, Turkey had in fact given no warning whatsoever before downing the Russian jet.

This is what he said, cited by Sputnik:

“There were no warnings. Not via the radio, not visually. There was no contact whatsoever. That’s why we were keeping our combat course as usual. You have to understand what the cruising speed of a bomber is compared to an F-16. If they wanted to warn us, they could have shown themselves by heading on a parallel course. But there was nothing. And the rocket hit our tail completely unexpectedly. We didn’t even see it in time to take evasive maneuvres.”

It would be quite easy to confirm or deny his allegation that Turkey is lying by simply checking the data from the plane’s Black Box, and alterantively, from the F-16 that was responsible for the downing of the Russian Su-24.

Murahtin also made it clear that he thought there was no violation of the Turkish airspace and added that the crew of the downed Russian bomber jet knew the area of the operation “like the back of their hands.”

The co-pilot added that he wants to continue serving in the Russian aviation group in Syria: “I can’t wait until I get the all-clear from the medics, so that I can step back into the ranks. I’m going to ask our command to keep me on this base — I have a debt to repay, for my commander.”

The bottom line is that someone is lying, and while for now there has been no material escalation in tensions between Turkey and Russia, it is almost assured that Putin is now carefully plotting just what his next move should be, one which will likely include the missile cruiser by the Syrian coast and any Turkish fighter jets that stray into Syrian territory.


Posted at 3:36 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

By now you have heard the news of a Russian fighter being shot down over Turkey. There are conflicting reports as to whether the plane was in Turkish or Syrian airspace. Another unknown is whether the plane was shot down from the air or ground. Also conflicting as to whether the pilots were dead prior to landing, or executed while parachuting down or after landing. Add to this the destruction of a Russian search helicopter by an anti tank “TOW”.

The ramifications of these events are mind boggling to say the least. While sitting down to write this, a news conference between presidents Obama and Hollande is being televised. I do not want to diminish the horror of the recent attacks in Paris and Belgium but what just happened in Turkey is far more important for several reasons. Thankfully they received questions regarding the Russian shootdown (maybe they were not U.S. reporters doing the questioning?).

Please understand, no matter how you look at the downing of the Russian fighter jet, “we” did it. Turkey is a member of NATO and the weapons used are of western origin. Turkey would never have done this without a green light given to them. They cannot even say “oops, our trigger finger slipped” as they claim to have warned the Russian fighter 10 times or more. The fact that the plane crashed on Syrian land shows even if they were in Turkish airspace, they were only a driver and pitching wedge across the border and on their way out. This genie cannot ever be put back in the bottle.

Judging by President Putin’s immediate statements afterward, we can now look forward to some sort of retaliation. Most importantly, he claims “ISIS” has been selling oil into Turkey to fund their military operations. Is this true? I cannot prove or disprove it but the actions of war require funding and ISIS obviously has funding and “somehow” Western arms and munitions. No matter how you slice it, the West will now be seen in a different light both in current time and historically. I can only hope to God this does not spawn WWIII but am afraid this is exactly where it’s headed because episode pits the U.S. versus Russia directly.

The following is how I see it, “in my opinion”. I believe this episode was no mistake and was fully planned. I think the “stress” on the Western financial system is coming to a full blown head and can no longer be hidden like the crazy aunt in the basement. As I have said all along, the collapse when it comes will need “cover” to hide the real and true cause. Starting a war with Russia even as unthinkable and unwinnable for anyone as it is will only serve to cover the foundational policy flaws of the Ponzi scheme.

The West is patently broke. Our standard of living can no longer be “funded” with debt. The current negative swap rates I believe are evidence of a scarcity of collateral …the alternative being banks and brokers truly are a better credit risk than sovereign debt. We also know gold is in scarcity because the negative GOFO rates. If you look to COMEX registered inventories you will see they are almost gone and amount to 150,000 ounces heading into what is the biggest delivery month of the year. The list goes on and on but suffice it to say, no matter where you look you will see things financial and economic either in decline or collapsing. You need to “look” for yourself and past the “headlines” and BLS reportings to understand why “now”.

I have long thought Russia and China had a “truth bomb” up their sleeve to be delivered by Mr. Putin. It has been my opinion he would expose many falsehoods and false flags over the years with hard evidence to back his claims. Now, should we be involved militarily against Russia much of what he has to deliver will be considered “propaganda” no matter how credible the evidence. Thank honest journalism for this.

Another very “current event” is the upcoming meeting of the IMF to either include or exclude China from the SDR. This vote is scheduled for next Monday. Ask yourself, would the U.S. like China sitting at “their” table or would they prefer not? We will soon see the outcome but I believe the neocons have taken over Washington and would like to use anything possible (including war) as a way to cover the reality.

A war at this point will kick the table over so to speak. It can be pointed at as a reason for the collapse of markets, the economy and a reason the Fed cannot even consider raising rates. I believe we will hear “our policies were working… but”. I also think a war would certainly be reason for “force majeure”, particularly in the gold and silver markets. How convenient would it be should the nonexistent inventory not have to meet the demand for delivery?

Should war break out and gold move up hundreds of dollars, it can again be easily said “this would never have happened if it were not for the damned Russians”. A force majeure from the current levels would certainly solve the problem of how to cover the shorts used to create the current price. Collapsing financial markets will be “understood” by a population who wakes up each morning hoping to be “fooled for longer”.

Unfortunately, what comes will arrive with or without a war. The American population will experience something they have not since 1945, shortages. The shortages will be blamed on anything but the real thing. If left on its own, foreigners not willing to accept dollars for trade will be the end result. Laugh at this if you want to but the world is craving “fair trade” where they get paid “something for something” as opposed to the never pay model currently in effect. The American public has just been served a very rotten Turkey for Thanksgiving. The timing in my opinion is anything but random!

I would like to say a few words of respect for the passing of Richard Russell. Sir Richard, the godfather of financial writers passed away yesterday at 91 years old. He began writing in 1958 and became an iconic source of truth and common sense in the financial world. I can remember reading his work while still in college, I credit his common sense approach as something I strived to duplicate as a broker and now as a writer. May God rest your soul Sir Richard!

I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome [email protected]

Posted at 1:39 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Mr. Williams shares the following with us.

- Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Revised to 2.08% from 1.49%, But the Initial Estimate of Broader Gross National Product Came in at 1.27%
- Guesstimated Upside Inventory Revisions Dominated Downside GDP Revisions from Slackening Personal Consumption and a Widening Trade Deficit
- Unfolding and Deepening Recession Continues
- Signaling a Fourth-Quarter Contraction, October Existing-Home Sales Joined Declining Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production
- November Consumer Confidence Continued to Tumble

“No. 769: Revised Third-Quarter GDP, October Existing-Home Sales, November Confidence”


Russia Suspends Military Cooperation With Turkey, Will Use Warships To “Destroy Any Threats To Russian Planes”
Tyler Durden on 11/24/2015 13:45 -0500

Despite demands from France’s Hollande, America’s Obama, and NATO’s Stoltenberg that this situation not esclate, it appears Putin is not taking the shooting down of a fighter jet lying down. The seemingly cagey confirmation by NATO and Obama of Turkey’s claims that Russia invaded its airspace has been rebuked by Russia which claims the Hmeimim airbase radar shows the attacking Turkish plane violating Syrian airspace. In response, Russia is moving a Cruiser ‘Moskva’ off the coast to strengthen air-defenses – just as French and US carriers are on their way.

Here is The Turkish version mapping of the flight paths…




Wall Street Remains Clueless – Even As The Brown Stuff Heads Straight Into The Fan
New York City, New York
November 24, 2015

The Dow should have been down 500 points today. And that’s to say nothing of the fact that the market’s current lofty valuation makes no sense in the first place.

The fact is, the brown stuff is now heading straight for the fan.

Didn’t the odds of a major geo-political calamity just take a huge turn for the worse in the airspace over the Syria-Turkey border?

At the same time, wasn’t today’s GDP update just one more reminder that the global economy is sinking into a deflationary contraction? And that our so-called domestic recovery cycle is getting very long in the tooth and is essentially running on the fumes of inventory accumulation?

Yet the Wall Street gamblers and robo-traders seem to think that pricing this global accident waiting to happen at 22X reported S&P 500 earnings is no big deal. And that comes on top of the fact that the long-running corporate earnings expansion cycle is over, as attested to by both the GDP report and the Q3 SEC filings.

At $94 per share S&P earnings came in 11% below last year’s $106 per share and that was before the most recent headwinds became evident.

To wit, Syria is rapidly taking on the complexion of the Balkans in June 1914. The resulting backwash of Islamic State terrorism and millions of refugees deep into the interior of Europe threatens to elicit a political and economic lockdown and a potential Thermidorian Reaction.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Time to crank those rates up.

Global debt defaults near milestone
Gavin Jackson and Eric Platt
November 23, 2015 2:54 pm

Global debt markets are on the cusp of an unwelcome development with the number of companies defaulting on their obligations set to reach the century mark, driven largely by struggling US shale gas providers.

Currently, 99 global companies have defaulted since the year began, the second greatest tally in more than a decade and only exceeded by the financial crisis which saw 222 defaults in 2009, according to Standard & Poor’s. US companies account for 62 of this year’s defaults.

Investors have become increasingly concerned about the state of the credit market, reflecting how companies have borrowed heavily against the backdrop of low interest rates during the era of easy money. Since 2007, the proportion of corporate bonds S&P has rated speculative-grade, or junk, has climbed to about 50 per cent from 40 per cent.

Now, as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, the rise in defaults suggests a number of companies are being challenged by a sluggish operating environment, declining revenues and heavy debt loads.

A slide in oil and commodity prices has weighed on smaller energy producers, primarily in the US, as big Opec producers continue pumping crude to maintain market share. In the US, about three-fifths of defaults in 2015 have been among energy and natural resources businesses, includingMidstates Petroleum, SandRidge Energy and Patriot Coal.

“The heart of the storm has been in commodities but it hasn’t been limited to just that,” said Raman Srivastava, deputy chief investment officer at Standish Mellon Asset Management. “It feels like every week there’s another company in the headlines. You hope it’s isolated but you don’t know.”

The jump in defaults has been reflected in the average yield on US corporate junk bonds, rising from 5.6 per cent at the start of 2014 to 8 per cent at present, according to Barclays.

The sell-off has been concentrated in the energy and materials industries and the average yield for junk bonds in the two sectors shot above 12 per cent last week; no other sector has a yield above the overall average.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

A Tweety Bird never took down an Eagle unless the person driving the SU 24 is on a learner’s permit.

Turkish F-16s Shoot Down Russian Su-24 Warplane Near Syria Border
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/24/2015 04:06 -0500

Moments ago a big black geopolitical swan landed when newswires lit up with headlines that a Turkish F-16 shot down what was initially said to be an unidentified warplane near the Syrian border after it violated Turkey’s airspace on Tuesday, a Turkish military official said, but the nationality of the downed aircraft was not immediately clear.

The Russian jet crashed in the mountainous Jabal Turkmen area of Latakia, where air strikes and fighting between rebels and Syrian government forces were reported earlier on Tuesday. 


According to Reuters, Turkish F16s warned the jet repeatedly over the airspace violations before shooting it down.





David Stockman Interview: Central Banks Are Out Of Dry Powder, Another Financial Crisis Is Unavoidable
by David Stockman • November 23, 2015

“We’re headed for a very severe monetary crisis and period of great instability — the very opposite of what has been experienced for the last six or seven years, when these markets have been effectively tranquilized by the central banks and their massive quantitative easing and intrusion into financial markets…

“But it’s going to change because we’re reaching the point where they (central banks) are out of dry powder. I don’t think the central banks have infinite power. I don’t think they can keep interest rates suppressed forever if confidence is lost.

Remember, there are trillions of dollars of bonds out there. There is something like $225 trillion of total debt in the world (public and private), and $90 trillion of that is traded in one form or another.

They (central banks) are not going to be able to control markets indefinitely if people who are on leverage start to lose confidence in the regime and reduce their positions and liquidate their portfolios. Who is going to buy it? If the central banks go back in in an even greater way with quantitative easing, particularly the Fed, I think it will scare the world to death and it will be totally counterproductive.

So I think they’ve painted themselves into a corner. The printing press can’t run red-hot indefinitely, and if they try it there is ultimately going to be a huge and negative reaction in what’s left of the markets.”

Eric King: “David, we are seeing negative rates in so many countries in Europe. Of course in the U.S. we could ultimately see negative with rates. How long can this charade continue?”


Posted at 1:50 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Proxy wars begin. Welcome to the new 100 year war.

China declares war on ISIS after terrorists claim to have executed Chinese hostage
Sam Webb

China will join the war on ISIS after four of its citizens were killed by Islamist terror groups in two separate attacks last week.

The vow comes after ISIS claimed to have killed Beijing man Fan Jinghui, 50, alongside Norwegian national Ole Johan Grimsgaard-Ofstad, 48, who were feared to have been taken hostage in September.

Chinese President Xi Jinping: “China will strengthen cooperation with the international community, resolutely crack down on violent terrorist operations that devastate innocent lives and safeguard world peace and security.”

He also called on the relevant departments to boost security work “outside China’s borders”.

ISIS had earlier published pictures of the two men in two full-page posters which listed the men as ‘for sale’ in its propaganda publication Dabiq.

The latest issue of the group’s in-house magazine featured images purporting to show the two men shot to death after being “abandoned by kafir nations and organisations”.

Xi also condemned the “cruel and savage” attack by militants on a hotel in Mali’s capital that killed more than people yesterday, including three executives from a Chinese railway company.

“With no regard for human conscience and moral baseline, the terrorist organisation still carried out this cold-blooded and violent action,” he said.

“The Chinese government strongly condemns this inhuman action and will definitely hold the perpetrators accountable.”

China strongly condemns ISIS after killing of hostage

The announcement is grim news for ISIS – China has a vast military force with more than two million active personnel.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

What is another $3.5 billion? Anybody going to forgive your debt on any ever?

The Government is Forgiving Thousands of Student Loan Debts
by Jonathan Chew
November 18, 2015, 2:11 PM EST

For those who attended Corinthian College campuses.

More students who attended programs at Corinthian Colleges, a now-defunct for-profit education network, will be granted a reprieve on their student loan debt, according to a statement by the Department of Education on Tuesday.

The program has been expanded to include about 85,000 students who attended California-based programs at Everest University and Wyotech, and students who took Everest online courses in Florida from 2010 to 2013.

Earlier this year, the department created an expedited debt relief program for around 40,000 students at the Heald College campuses, after years of investigation into Corinthian Colleges concluded the company misrepresented job placement rates to enrolled and prospective students.

In April, the department informed Corinthian that it was being fined about $30 million for fraud. After the news, Corinthian – once one of the nation’s largest for-profit chains – announced it would close down its remaining 28 campuses, displacing roughly 16,000 students. In May, Corinthian and its 24 subsidiaries filed for bankruptcy.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Screw the little guy as no one seems to care. Algos go on killing the heart of the market, the public, or what is left of it.

Computers now trading are eating each other. Soon there will be but one left which will then starve to death from lack of food sources. Algos are parasites that kill their host stone cold dead. After killing the host what is left for the parasite to feed on? You will see this taking place first in the earnings reports of the giant computer trading companies, banks, institutions and public specialist firms whose electronic hay day is past. They would be best to pull the plug out of the wall and go back to the historic business. That will not happen as greed runs everything today.

“What they don’t say is this type of order is to protect the small trader during the weee hours of the night, when the Algo’s do their worse”

NYSE joining Nasdaq in eliminating stop orders
Published: Nov 18, 2015 5:18 p.m. ET
By Steve Goldstein, D.C. bureau chief

A type of order traders use to protect against losses is being phased out, as stock exchanges seek to deal with the ramifications of huge intraday swings.

The New York Stock Exchange, in a statement, said it would no longer accept what are called stop orders, beginning Feb. 26, joining the Nasdaq NDAQ, +1.96%  in barring them. Another order type called good-till-canceled also is being axed.

The NYSE, a unit of the InterncontinentalExchange ICE, +0.64% cited the risks that occur from such orders during volatile trading. A stop order could be triggered after a big downward move, but investors could be unhappy when the stock quickly recovers its value. Another risk is the stock falls much further than the level where the stop order was intended to be executed.

(Short sellers place stop orders in the opposite direction, buying if a stock exceeds a certain price.)

MarketWatch columnist Michael Sincere explained the potential pitfalls of stop orders.

In any case, the orders were rarely used — just 0.2% of the time.




El Niño may trigger floods, famine and sickness in much of the world
Monte Morin

A fog of suffocating smoke settles over the Indonesian countryside, sickening hundreds of thousands of people and triggering an environmental crisis.

In Peru, officials abandon plans to host the lucrative Dakar Rally and prepare instead for torrential rains and devastating floods.

And in Ethiopia, crops perish for lack of seasonal rain as United Nations officials warn of imminent famine.

Although many Californians hope forecasts of a “Godzilla” El Niño will deliver drought-busting rains this winter, mention of the mysterious climate phenomenon inspires dread in much of the world.

Its long-distance, or teleconnected, effects are so great that some researchers argue it doubles the risk of war in much of the Third World.

“It’s a spawner of hazards everywhere,” said El Niño researcher Michael “Mickey” Glantz, director of the Consortium for Capacity Building at the University of Colorado, Boulder.



“It’s All A Lie” – Eric Sprott Slams Massive Monetary Metals Manipulation
Tyler Durden on 11/22/2015 20:10 -0500
Submitted by Mac Slavo via,

If the government’s official statistics are to be believed the U.S. economy is moving full steam ahead. Consumer are spending, the job market is expanding, real estate has recovered, stocks are soaring and the U.S. dollar is stronger than it has been in a decade.

But if you have yet to realize it, it’s all a lie. So says billionaire investor Eric Sprott of Sprott Global, which manages hundreds of millions of dollars in contrarian investment funds for clients all over the world. Well known for his long-term bullishness on the resource sector, specifically precious metals, Sprott joined First Mining Finance chairman Keith Neumeyer in a must-see interview where the pair discuss everything from the state of the global economy and trade to gold market manipulation and the inevitable breakdown of highly leveraged paper trading exchanges.

Neumeyer recently sent a very public letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission highlighting rampant price suppression, noting that neither real producers or real consumers are being represented by the manipulative practices of a small concentration of players. Echoing those concerns Sprott suggests that for every 5 tons of real gold there are some 1500 tons worth of claims. The inevitable outcome should claimants ever want to take delivery of physical inventory will be an unprecedented explosion in price:

To be brutally honest, I mean, that’s what I dream of… I think we’re almost at that point where we might very well have a shortage of gold and silver by a product of this last raid here, so much so that we’ll take those 5 tons from the COMEX because we have lots of people buying silver and gold.

The manipulation of precious metals, coupled with the supply and demand fundamentals which Sprott says will lead to shortages over the next few years as mining companies reduce output or close up shop, will leave many investors who think their gold holdings are easily convertible to physical assets with nothing more than depreciating Yellen Bucks at exactly the moment they’ll need precious metals in their possession.


Posted at 1:21 PM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is an explanation of the Syrian war.

Dear Jim,

Remembering that the so called rebels (mostly foreigners from jihadist Arab countries and the caucus were financed and armed to the teeth by Saudi Arabia and powers that be,( have brought mayhem and utter chaos throughout the faith) here is the summary of the convoluted state of affairs:

A highly restricted briefing paper on Syria:

President Assad (who is bad) is a nasty guy who got so nasty his people rebelled and the Rebels (who are good) started winning (Hurrah!). But then some of the rebels turned a bit nasty and are now called Islamic State (who are definitely bad!) and some continued to support democracy (who are still good).

So the Americans (who are good) started bombing Islamic State (who are bad) and giving arms to the Syrian Rebels (who are good) so they could fight Assad (who is still bad) which was good.

By the way, there is a breakaway state in the north run by the Kurds who want to fight IS (which is a good thing ) but the Turkish authorities think they are bad, so we have to say they are bad whilst secretly thinking they’re good and giving them guns to fight IS (which is good) but that is another matter.

Getting back to Syria.

So President Putin (who is bad, ‘cos he invaded Crimea and the Ukraine and killed lots of folks (including that nice Russian man in London with polonium poisoned sushi) has decided to back Assad (who is still bad) by attacking IS (who are also bad) which is sort of a good thing? But Putin (still bad) thinks the Syrian Rebels (who are good) are also bad, and so he bombs them too, much to the annoyance of the Americans (who are good) who are busy backing and arming the rebels (who are also good).

Now Iran (who used to be bad, but now they have agreed not to build any nuclear weapons and bomb Israel, are now good ) are going to provide ground troops to support Assad (still bad) as are the Russians (bad) who now have ground troops and aircraft in Syria.

So a Coalition of Assad (still bad), Putin (extra bad) and the Iranians (good, but in a bad sort of way) are going to attack IS (who are bad) which is a good thing, but also the Syrian Rebels (who are good) which is bad.

Now the British (obviously good, except that nice Mr Corbyn in the corduroy jacket, who is probably bad and the Americans (also good) cannot attack Assad (still bad) for fear of upsetting Putin (bad) and Iran (good/bad) and now they have to accept that Assad might not be that bad after all compared to IS (who are super bad).

So Assad (bad) is now probably good, being better than IS (but let’s face it, drinking your own wee is better than IS so no real choice there) and since Putin and Iran are also fighting IS that may now make them Good. America (still Good) will find it hard to arm a group of rebels being attacked by the Russians for fear of upsetting Mr Putin (now good) and that nice man Ayatollah in Iran (also Good) and so they may be forced to say that the Rebels are now Bad, or at the very least abandon them to their fate. This will lead most of them to flee to Turkey and on to Europe or join IS (still the only constantly bad group).

To Sunni Muslims, an attack by Shia Muslims (Assad and Iran) backed by Russians will be seen as something of a Holy War, and the ranks of IS will now be seen by the Sunnis as the only Jihadis fighting in the Holy War and hence many Muslims will now see IS as Good (Doh!).

Sunni Muslims will also see the lack of action by Britain and America in support of their Sunni rebel brothers as something of a betrayal (mmm…might have a point…) and hence we will be seen as Bad.

So now we have America (now bad) and Britain (also bad) providing limited support to Sunni Rebels (bad) many of whom are looking to IS (Good/bad) for support against Assad (now good) who, along with Iran (also Good) and Putin (also, now, unbelievably, Good) are attempting to retake the country Assad used to run before all this started?

I hope that clears things up for you.

All the best,
CIGA Riyaz ( probably good but do not jump to judgment just yet)

Posted at 8:05 PM (CST) by & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

The Fed made an announcement Friday they will be holding an “expedited, closed meeting” on Monday.  This is very strange indeed.  First, aren’t all meetings “closed”?  And how often do they hold “expedited” meetings.  When I first heard this my mind started to turn toward “why”?  Why would they have the need to do this?  And on such short notice?


My first thoughts were either something may have broken in the derivatives markets or maybe it had something to do with the upcoming IMF vote to decide whether or not to let China into the SDR?  These two thoughts made the most sense as markets have moved in large percentages both up and down.  The stock and sovereign bonds markets have been firm and still pressed up against their highs so it can only be a short in trouble.  Commodities have been eviscerated so maybe a long (Glencore or others?) could be in trouble?

As for the possibility they are meeting prior to the IMF vote, the dollar has been firm so there is no current dollar crisis for them to manage.  Please understand, the Fed NEVER gets out in front of anything.  I find it unlikely the Fed is meeting to strategize how they will handle the inclusion of the yuan into the SDR …and thus a lower slice of the pie for the dollar. 

Alternatively, is it possible the Fed has been informed there will be a veto to the Chinese entrance and are preparing for the blowback from such an action?  In my opinion if this were to really occur, it would be the very worst of all worlds.  The Chinese may not immediately react to the lost of face but understand this, they WILL REACT.  Maybe they wouldn’t just pull the plug out of the wall but the “power” will be disconnected!

If we take their statement at face value, it sounds like they are considering changing what they pay banks for the massive pile of deposits that have piled up at the Fed.  Could it be the Fed wants these balances to be lowered and will decide to lessen the incentive to banks to park money and rather entice them to lend?  This thought process would be supported by the collapse in the velocity of money but the question remains, will the banks begin to lend.

To finish let me say the following: the Fed has NEVER in my career since 1983 ever been “proactive”, they have always been “reactive”.  I have asked many contacts if they know what this meeting is all about or why it is “expedited”?  No one has anything more than theory as to what’s going on.  I have explored some of the possibilities here yet there are many more.  I do not believe whatever is going on is “benign”.  I say this because of the way this meeting has been announced.  Something very strange is going on behind the scenes …we will have to wait to find out what exactly it is.

Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome [email protected]

Posted at 8:02 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.



Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Another nail in the European coffin. Sooner rather than later the citizens will start to get the point. “Stay out of the system!” This negative interest rates will help to bring the system down when fear finally rears its ugly head.

Swiss alternative bank breaks negative rates taboo
By Nathalie Olof-Ors

Zurich (AFP) – A tiny Swiss bank specialised in financing social and environmental projects will on January 1 go where no retail lender has gone before, applying negative interest rates on individual clients.

The Alternative Bank Schweiz (ABS) caused shockwaves with a letter sent to all clients in mid-October informing them that it would begin imposing interest charges on deposits in 2016.

For current accounts, the bank said it would impose a -0.125-percent rate, while slapping a -0.75-percent rate on client deposits higher than 100,000 Swiss francs ($98,650, 92,420 euros).

So far individual depositors have been shielded from the burn of decisions by several central banks, including Switzerland’s, to introduce negative interest rates to light a flame under growth or ward off unwanted currency investors.

ABS, which grew out of the ideals the 1960′s protest movement, justified the unprecedented development by saying it would provide manoeuvering room for financing “meaningful projects”.

The move did not go unnoticed in Swiss financial circles as banks in the wealthy Alpine nation search for ways to deal with the negative rates imposed on them by the central bank in January.

“This decision on negative rates is costing us a lot of money — pretty much the equivalent of our entire annual profit last year,” ABS chief Martin Rohner told AFP.

The Swiss central bank introduced a negative deposit rate in January after it abruptly abandoned its three-year effort to hold down the franc’s exchange rate to protect exports.





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Petro dollar demand less?

Russia Launches Crude Benchmark to End Dependence on Dollar, Brent
17:26 12.11.2015

In November, Russia is set to launch test trading of its new domestic-produced benchmark oil. It is expected to drive up the price for Russian oil and end its dependence on Brent pricing. That may result in trading Russian oil in rubles.

The plan to create a Russian oil benchmark has been in the making for several years. Currently, Russian-produced Urals and ESPO (crude transported through the ESPO pipeline) is traded cheaper against Brent due to the lack of a transparent pricing mechanism and guarantees of delivery.

According to Russian officials, Russian benchmark crude would make domestic-produced oil grades more liquid and expensive.

To be recognized as benchmark in the international market, Russian crude has to meet the following three requirements.  It has to be traded at clear and transparent prices; its deliveries have to be guaranteed; the trading volume has to reach not less than 10-15 million tons per year, or three million barrels a day.

The Russian Energy Minister expects that the first trading would take place before the end of 2015 or in the first half of 2016. Russian Urals or ESPO – the Ministry has not decided yet.

As for now, general rules have been elaborated to trade Russian oil on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX), RBK reported.