Posted at 12:29 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

So much for great housing figures.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall for First Time Since February WSJ.
August 24, 2016

July decline in National Association of Realtors numbers point to smaller inventory pressing prices higher

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Posted at 5:11 PM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Their game of Chicken goes on, as such war between major nations is inevitable (even if fighting by proxy) before 2017 is out.

Iran vessels make ‘high speed intercept’ of U.S. ship: U.S. official
August 24, 2016

Four of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vessels “harassed” a U.S. warship on Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. defense official said, amid Washington’s concerns about Iran’s posture in the Gulf and in the Syrian civil war.

The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said on Wednesday that two of the Iranian vessels came within 300 yards of the USS Nitze in an incident that was “unsafe and unprofessional.”

The vessels harassed the destroyer by “conducting a high speed intercept and closing within a short distance of Nitze, despite repeated warnings,” the official said.

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Posted at 11:05 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Yra comments on the mix-up scene.

Notes From Underground: Looking for Headwinds In All the Wrong Places
August 18, 2016

It’s tough to enjoy the final days of summer when the FED can’t just relax their wind pipes. The continued contradictions emanating from those who sit in the same meetings is jeopardizing the Fed’s credibility …AGAIN. Last Monday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams published an economic letter in which he posed the concept of either raising the inflation targets, or the Fed ought to target a NOMINAL GDP level. This was perceived to be an extremely DOVISH view as it would keep the FED on HOLD far longer than the market currently predicts. The problem was that Williams had voiced a HAWKISH view just two weeks earlier. The quick about-face makes me wonder if the Fed’s logo should be the Roman god Janus.

Following on the release of the Williams letter was a speech from New York Fed President Bill Dudley, who intimated a high probability of a rate increase at the FOMC meeting in September. The back and forth isn’t keeping the markets off-balance because the SPOOS continue to make new highs regardless of the jib-jab from FOMC members. The release of the July 26-27 FOMC minutes added to the confusion. The media headlines said the minutes reflected a SPLIT at the Fed. That’s NONSENSE. The vote was 9-1, which has been the status quo, except for the June meeting because of Brexit, Esther George returned to voting in favor of a rate hike.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Just a thought you might consider.

German Government Urges Citizens To Stockpile Food, Water “In Case Of Attack Or Catastrophe”
August 22, 2016

For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the German government plans to tell citizens to stockpile food and water in case of an attack or catastrophe, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper reported on Sunday. as TagesSchau reports, the federal government, according to a newspaper report wants to encourage the population to begin stockpiling food and water again, so that they temporarily can take care of themself in the case of a disaster or an armed attack. As Reuters details,

Germany is currently on high alert after two Islamist attacks and a shooting rampage by a mentally unstable teenager last month. Berlin announced measures earlier this month to spend considerably more on its police and security forces and to create a special unit to counter cyber crime and terrorism.

“The population will be obliged to hold an individual supply of food for ten days,” the newspaper quoted the government’s “Concept for Civil Defence” – which has been prepared by the Interior Ministry – as saying.

The paper said a parliamentary committee had originally commissioned the civil defense strategy in 2012.

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Posted at 11:18 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The latest from John Williams’ www.shadowstats.com

- Industrial Production Represents 65% of GDP
- Production Recovery from the 2007 Recession Lasted All of One Month
- Against Pre-2007 Recession Highs, Production and Manufacturing Were Down Respectively in July 2016 by 0.77% (-0.77%) and 5.80% (-5.80%)
- Still Never Seen Outside of Formal Recessions in the 98-Year History of Industrial Production, Three Consecutive Quarters of Annual Contraction Now Are Expanding into a Fourth Quarter
- July Real Retail Sales Were Unchanged Month-to-Month, with Annual Real Growth Weakening Sharply in an Intensifying Recession Signal
- Housing Starts Continued to Hold in Smoothed, Low-Level Stagnation, Never Having Recovered Pre-Recession Highs
- Second Quarter GDP Growth Should Face Downside Revision
- July 2016 Annual Inflation Softened by 0.2% (-0.2%), with CPI-U at 0.8%, CPI-W at 0.5% and ShadowStats at 8.5%
- Weakening Economic Circumstances Increasingly Befuddle Fed Activity, Weakening the Dollar and Strengthening Gold, Silver and Oil Prices

“No. 826: July Production, Housing Starts, CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Freight Index “
www.shadowstats.com

Posted at 11:13 AM (CST) by & filed under Jim's Mailbox.

Dear Jim,

The most important line in all of gold right now. This is it. The range has shrunk —- its pressed tight against the final downtrend line of the 2011-2015 gold bear market.

Perhaps I have bias eyes, but I’ll tell you, it looks on the verge of being pushed thru that line……………….one little shove here and it might get interesting.

CIGA Bill Downey

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Dear David,

There is huge difference between Helicopter Money and Airplane Money. They are different animals. Airplane Money can be focus on the targeted having outrageous inflationary teeth. Airplane Money cannot be sterilized in any manner or way whatsoever.

It is going to happen.

RY,

Jim

On The Impossibility Of Helicopter Money And Why The Casino Will Crash
August 17, 2016

……..As the stock market reached its lunatic peak near 2200 in August, the certainty that the Fed is out of dry powder and that the so-called economic recovery is out of runway gave rise to one more desperate pulse of hopium.

Namely, that the central banks of the world were about to embark on outright ‘helicopter money’, thereby jolting back to life domestic economies that are sliding into deflation and recession virtually everywhere—– from Japan to South Korea, China, Italy, France, England, Brazil, Canada and most places in-between.

That latter area especially includes the United States. Despite Wall Street’s hoary tale that the domestic economy has “decoupled” from the rest of the world, the evidence that the so-called recovery is grinding to a halt is overwhelming.

After all, the real GDP growth rate during the year ending in June was a miniscule 1.2%. It reflected the weakest 4-quarter rate since the Great Recession.

And even that was made possible only by an unsustainable build-up in business inventories and the shortchanging of inflation by the Washington statistical mills. Had even a semi-honest GDP deflator been used, the US economy would have posted real GDP on the zero-line, at best.

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Posted at 11:46 AM (CST) by & filed under In The News.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

There goes that asset for the election.

Obamacare in Crisis: Aetna Drops Coverage in 536 of 778 Counties in Which It Operated
August 16, 2016

Aetna Chairman and CEO Mark T. Bertolini made the following statement with regard to the company’s 2017 participation in the Affordable Care Act individual public exchanges:

Following a thorough business review and in light of a second-quarter pretax loss of $200 million and total pretax losses of more than $430 million since January 2014 in our individual products, we have decided to reduce our individual public exchange presence in 2017, which will limit our financial exposure moving forward. … As a strong supporter of public exchanges as a means to meet the needs of the uninsured, we regret having to make this decision….Aetna will reduce its individual public exchange participation from 778 to 242 counties for the 2017 plan year, maintaining an on-exchange presence in Delaware, Iowa, Nebraska and Virginia.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Inadequate for what? To fend off a collapse of course.

FDIC Slams Biggest US Banks, Says Capital Reserves “Inadequate”
August 15, 2016

On Friday morning, a gentleman named Thomas Hoenig wrote some rather unflattering comments about the US banking system in a little known publication called the Wall Street Journal.

In his remarks, Hoenig stated that “while the largest U.S. banks have increased capital since the [2008] crisis, their capital is still lower than the industry average and inadequate for bank resiliency.”

Think about what means. A bank’s “capital” is essentially its rainy day reserve fund.

If there’s a giant mess in the financial system and asset prices collapse (as they did in 2008), a bank with plentiful capital will be able to withstand the crisis.

Banks with inadequate capital will fail.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Not the best advertisement for Cyber money!

‘Shadow Brokers’ Claim To Have Hacked An NSA-Linked Elite Computer Security Unit
August 15, 2016

Cybersecurity experts are searching for answers after an unidentified group claimed on Monday to have hacked into “Equation Group” — an elite cyber-attack group associated with the NSA.

The “Shadow Brokers” claimed in a post on blogging service Tumblr to have hacked Equation Group, and say they are holding an “auction” to sell off the “cyber weapons” they were able to steal. Shadow Brokers have also provided a sample of files, free to access, to “prove” their legitimacy.

(Business Insider isn’t linking to the files because they are a potential security risk.)

Equation Group, widely believed to be part of the NSA spy agency, was described by security firm Kaspersky in 2015 as “a threat actor [hacker or hacking group, essentially] that surpasses anything known in terms of complexity and sophistication of techniques, and that has been active for almost two decades.”

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