Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The latest from John Williams.
- 2013 GAAP-Based U.S. Deficit Was About $6.2 Trillion
"No. 606: Preliminary U.S. Government GAAP-Based 2013 Fiscal Conditions"
Web-page: http://www.shadowstats.com
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Another act that has no teeth.
‘Visa bans, asset freezes are next’: Europe announces three step sanctions against Russia
Published time: March 06, 2014 17:30
Edited time: March 06, 2014 19:25
EU leaders have threatened Russia with sanctions, which could include visa bans, asset freezes and various economic restrictions unless it engages in direct talks with the coup-appointed Ukrainian government.
As a first step, the EU has halted G8 summit preparations and visa-free talks with Russia.
The European Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, on Thursday warned that if Moscow does not manage a de-escalation of the situation in Ukraine, it will “seriously affect the relations between the EU and Russia.”
“If there is no de-escalation, the EU will decide on additional measures, such as visa restrictions, asset freezes and cancellation of the Russia-EU summit,” Rompuy said at a press conference as quoted by Interfax.
British Prime Minister David Cameron threatened that asset freezes and unspecified travel bans could be imposed on Russia “relatively quickly,” unless progress is made on dialogue with Ukraine.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
QE or whatever Chair Yellen calls it to infinity.
U.S. Q4 non-farm productivity revised down to 1.8% from 3.2%
Mar 06, 2014, 07.05 PM IST
Investing.com – Investing.com – U.S. non-farm productivity rose less than initially expected in the fourth quarter, while unit labor costs declined less than forecast, official data showed on Thursday. In a report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said non-farm business sector labor productivity rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.8% in the final three months of 2013, down from a preliminary estimate of 3.2% and below expectations for an increase of 2.5%. The report also said unit labor costs fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in the fourth quarter, compared to a preliminary estimate of a 1.6% decline and better than expectations for a 0.9% drop. Following the release of the data, the U.S. dollar trimmed losses against the euro, with EUR/USD rising 0.04% to trade at 1.3739, compared to 1.3750 ahead of the data. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures pointed to a firm open. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a gain of 0.25%, S&P 500 futures indicated a rise of 0.25%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures signaled an increase of 0.2%.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
QE or whatever Chair Yellen calls it to infinity.
U.S. factory orders, shipments fall in January
WASHINGTON Thu Mar 6, 2014 10:04am EST
(Reuters) – New orders for U.S. factory goods fell more than expected in January and shipments also slipped, adding to signs of a recent slowdown in manufacturing activity.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday new orders for manufactured goods declined 0.7 percent. December’s orders were revised to show a 2.0 percent drop instead of the previously reported 1.5 percent fall.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new orders received by factories slipping 0.4 percent. Shipments of new orders fell for a second month in January.
Factory activity is cooling as businesses place fewer orders while working through stocks of unsold goods. Unseasonably cold weather, which has weighed on activity ranging from home building to hiring, is also a drag on manufacturing.
Factory orders fell across most categories, with big declines in transportation, primary metals and electrical equipment, appliances and components. Orders for machinery also fell.
P.M. Kitco Roundup: Gold Higher On Bargain Hunting, Weaker U.S. Dollar Index
Thursday March 6, 2014 2:00 PM
(Kitco News) – Gold prices ended the U.S. day session with moderate gains Thursday, boosted by bargain hunting and by a lower U.S. dollar index. The overall near-term chart posture of the gold market remains in favor of the bulls, which continues to invite technically inspired buying. April gold was last up $10.10 at $1,350.40 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted up $13.60 at $1,351.00. May Comex silver last traded up $0.303 at $21.542 an ounce.
U.S. economic data released Thursday included the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job cuts report, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and ICSC chain store sales trends. Taken together, this data once again favored the weak side of market expectations. That was also a bullish underlying factor for the precious metals Thursday. It begs the question: Will Friday’s all-important U.S. jobs report also favor the weak side? If so, that would also be bullish for the metals and for the raw commodity sector, in general. It would hint that the Federal Reserve may not be as aggressive in winding down its quantitative easing programs in the coming months. The forecast is for the key non-farm payrolls figure of the jobs data to come in at up 150,000 in February. Any reading that deviates significantly from that forecast is likely to move the markets. In recent weeks, U.S. economic data has mostly missed the pre-report forecasts and have been on the weak side of those forecasts.
Gold also got a lift Thursday from less-dovish comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, at his press conference following the ECB monthly meeting. His remarks lifted the Euro currency, which in turn supported gold and pressured the U.S. dollar index. The ECB did not make any significant monetary policy moves Thursday. None were expected given some recent, generally upbeat economic data coming out of the European Union.
The situation in Ukraine has for now changed from a serious geopolitical matter to more of a regional issue of lesser significance—from a market place perspective. This has been bullish for world stock markets and bearish for safe-haven gold, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries.
The London P.M. gold fix is $1,345.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,337.00.
Technically, April gold futures prices closed nearer the session high Thursday. A two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,355.00. Bears’ next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,318.70. First resistance is seen at $1,355.00 and then at $1,360.00. First support is seen at $1,345.60 and then at $1,340.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
ObamaCare depends on coercion in order to function.
Bill to Make the Fine $0 for Violating the Individual Mandate Passes by 90 Votes
9:08 AM, Mar 6, 2014 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
The House of Representatives passed legislation Wednesday afternoon to make the fine/“tax” for violating Obamacare’s individual mandate $0 for this year, and it did so by the wide margin of 90 votes (250 to 160). That’s 83 more than the 7-vote margin (219 to 212) by which Obamacare passed the House four Marches ago. Moreover, 27 Democrats voted for today’s legislation—27 more than the number of Republicans who voted for Obamacare when it passed. In all, 223 Republicans voted for today’s bill, while only one—Paul Broun of Georgia—voted against it. Here’s the member-by-member tally for the vote.
Earlier today, the Obama White House released a 3-paragraph statement on the legislation, noting that Obamacare “helps millions of Americans stay on their parents’ plans until age 26”—which, of course, has nothing to do with the individual mandate or the fine/“tax” for violating it—and saying that if President Obama were presented with the legislation, “he would veto it.”
Given the wide margin by which the legislation passed the House, along with the significant level of bipartisan support with which it passed, perhaps the Senate will actually take a vote, pass the bill, and give Obama that chance. That would provide a welcome reminder to the American people of the extent to which Obama’s centerpiece legislation relies upon coercion.
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
This almost borders on a joke.
US and EU impose sanctions and warn Russia to relent in Ukraine standoff
Dan Roberts in Washington and Ian Traynor in Brussels
The Guardian, Thursday 6 March 2014 20.03 GMT
Barack Obama and his EU allies unveiled a co-ordinated set of sanctions on Thursday to punish Russia for occupying the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, imposing visa restrictions on individuals and sharpening rhetoric in what has rapidly degenerated into the worst east-west crisis since the end of the cold war.
President Obama spoke for an hour on Thursday afternoon with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. According the White House, the US president told Putin that newly-announced sanctions, introduced in co-ordination with the UK, were a response to Russia’s “violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
“President Obama indicated that there is a way to resolve the situation diplomatically, which addresses the interests of Russia, the people of Ukraine, and the international community.” the White House said in a statement to reporters.
“As a part of that resolution, the governments of Ukraine and Russia would hold direct talks, facilitated by the international community; international monitors could ensure that the rights of all Ukrainians are protected, including ethnic Russians; Russian forces would return to their bases; and the international community would work together to support the Ukrainian people as they prepare for elections in May.”
In their first concrete response to Russia’s move to seize Crimea from Ukraine, Brussels and Washington also warned of further sanctions such as asset seizures if Moscow does not relent in the standoff.
Exclusive: Russia wants IMF to move ahead on reforms without U.S. – sources
By Anna Yukhananov and Lidia Kelly
WASHINGTON/MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian officials are pushing for the International Monetary Fund to move ahead with planned reforms without the United States, which could mean the loss of the U.S. veto over major decisions at the global lender, sources said.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov brought up the idea at a meeting of top finance officials from the Group of 20 nations in Sydney late last month, two G20 sources told Reuters this week.
The failure of the U.S. Congress to approve IMF funding has held up reforms agreed in 2010 that would double the Fund’s resources and give more say to emerging markets like China.
The United States is the only country that holds a controlling share of IMF votes, meaning its approval is necessary for any major decision to go forward.
Crimea’s Vote To Join Russia Accelerates The Ukraine Crisis
ALISSA DE CARBONNEL
SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (Reuters) – Crimea’s parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days on the decision in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.
The sudden acceleration of moves to bring Crimea, which has an ethnic Russian majority and has effectively been seized by Russian forces, formally under Moscow’s rule came as European Union leaders gathered for an emergency summit to seek ways to pressure Russia to back down and accept mediation.
The Crimean parliament voted unanimously "to enter into the Russian Federation with the rights of a subject of the Russian Federation". The vice premier of Crimea, home to Russia’s Black Sea military base in Sevastopol, said a referendum on the status would take place on March 16.
The announcement, which diplomats said could not have been made without Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval, raised the stakes in the most serious east-west confrontation since the end of the Cold War.
Far from seeking a diplomatic way out, Putin appears to have chosen to create facts on the ground before the West can agree on more than token action against him.
EU leaders had been set to warn but not sanction Russia over its military intervention after Moscow rebuffed Western diplomatic efforts to persuade it to pull forces in Crimea, with a population of about 2 million, back to their bases. It was not immediately clear what impact the Crimean moves would have.
